S-FM 355: Nonstandard Roles 3

[Dark Magician]

As in “Probably the wolf team”
But I could be wrong on MM technically.

[Dark Magician]

Doubt I’m wrong on Mizery and I know I ain’t wrong on Cape.

[Dark Magician]

For people wondering about “Can you trust my read accuracy?”
I said Cape/Baker contains a wolf. Cape isn’t flipping town.

I also say Cape is Wolf with Mizery.
I highly doubt this is wrong.

MM I can see being wrong but I still not sure.

[Dark Magician]

Actually LOL we can GG this. Spite Mizery to the Moon.

Tail, Choose me and Mizery as your next check.

Let’s make sure the Doctor be on you.

[Dark Magician]

Wolf!Mizery auto loses if check gets off and you survive.

I also want it noted in the Wolf!Mizery world, MM is clearly trying to get the public revealer off of Mizery.

[Dark Magician]

Still the possibility that he's the evil teacher and not grave digger

Like this isn’t a real thought but MM just let it slide.
If MM is town here they should be concerned why Mizery is hesitant on voting Cape.

[oliverz144]

Did you know that mafia is a team game?!? And it require players to interact? Someone has to "find" scum and then others have to either agree or disagree with that case so we can lynch scum. This is my what, 5th game here? Do I really give off the impression that I don't believe what I believe? IMO, lynching Huo furthers the town wincon so whats annoying about me wanting to help my team win?

wow scumbot made the next copypasta xD

[Luka]

Chirst Dark Magician thats 8 messages

[Luka]

Can you explain MM to me please?
I have them as probably so like, tell me.

Slight Volume clear slight town mindset
Genuinly solving, seems real in his posts / not fabricated. Clearly not worried about thread spew, town

[Lilypetal]

The Genshin character I remember being vaugly townie at EOD, I agreed with them calling baker town. They're a bad execution

this is so towny it hurts LOL

[Lilypetal]

so cape is red checked?

so i was right?

hehe :3

-vote cape

[MartinGG99]

Martin's last minute vote switch was nagl but the question is would a wolf vote bakermir just to switch off before flipping

probbaly not

so Martin prob v

I don't feel like this is a genuine thought, vote-switching at EoD can easily be read or argued as AI almost entirely irrespective of the circumstances. Too-wolf-to-be-a-wolf doesn't really work if its easily wifomable.

Also really just looks at things at sort of a...strange face-value way.

There's no questioning of me about it.

There's no mention of me saying idk about either wagons.

Its just entirely focused on the fact that I switched and that we know one of the flips.

So I can't really buy that if you're town that you're reading me as "prob v" off this.

[MartinGG99]

Also

I'm like used to being respected by some people and/or being treated as a bit hard to read. This just feels disrespectfully opposite of that.

I mean (dis)respect as the technical term with only neutral connotation.

[MartinGG99]

"and/or" should be "as"

I don't know what happened in my brain there.

[MartinGG99]

Actually the grammatically incorrect sentence is just terrible please pretend you all understood it and the errors don't exist

[MartinGG99]

not that anyone cares what I say but the EOD was odd yesterday. After doing his best Chris Crocker impression, MM voted Hou after expressing some interest in us not voting there. Although looking back he doesn't seem as opposed as I first thought but it's still sort of just fence sitting.



Part of me just wants to think that MM and Martin finally saw the light after no selling my case earlier but a more cynical view is that they knew I'd be hard pushing Huo today, regardless of Bake's flip and they wanted to endear themselves to me. I mean, it's just so odd to me that they said 0 about my case on Huo and then voted there?

Your case isn't what I had in mind really, after looking back for it now. It was mostly just I didn't like voting Oli or Baker at that time, MM mirrored some of my thoughts simultaneously, MM voted Huo, and I didn't really have any reason to TR Huo and so sheeped there.

I did slightly regret even trying it on the principle that it can be taken as rude to vote off a new player to our community on day 1.

Back to your case though about "scum following path of least resistance", it honestly looked like it had the strength of a floppy noodle since it was early game. There isn't going to be much resistance to be concerned about as scum. Normally you'd see it later-game where things are more solidified. So I just disregarded it and forgot about it.

[MartinGG99]

Also, considering Helz is alive, it's safe to assume Werewolf does not exist (it goes before Bounty Hunter in the OoO, so there was no Werewolf kill stopped by BH). It's not too far-fetched to assume there is one neutral who can solo win (BH) and two neutrals who do their own things (Ghost, Monk, Wild Card).

don't think that's how the OoO works this game at least for BH

otherwise BH would protect against nothing

OoO is prob there for when stuff would prevent other stuff to happen, and protects/kills are resolved in a different way so long as the protectors/killers are still able to act

so werewolf could exist and if they do they're deciding to feed off of Helz till Helz dies (which is either elimination or when bounty ends)

[MartinGG99]

Spoiler : snip by martin :

didn't feel like podracing so i wouldn't be suprised if oli and huo huo are v,

if so that ups wolf equity in lily and auwt for sitting on vanity wagons and not really caring about who died, but also if v/v/v wagons wolves are more likely to have voted than not since they wouldn't want to miss an opportunity by accidentally just skipping day.

Huo Huo and Mr Tail (3): Marshmallow Marshall, MartinGG99, bwcPorscha
oliverz144 (3): bakermir, Huo Huo and Mr Tail, Helz
bakermir (4): oliverz144, Mizery, scumbot5679, Cape90
Marshmallow Marshall (1): Auwt
Cape90 (1): Lilypetal
Skip Day (3): Luka; Dark Magician; Varcron

so then if we assume v/v/v wagons then we can assume ~one evil on each wagon with possible 6 total

mm/porscha
--
scumbot/cape
Auwt/lily
luka/dm/varcron

Again- Auwt/lily more likely to be wolves out of all of them, since they were sitting on low impact vanity wagons while people were consolidating, possibly not wanting to get caught up in flipping a townie.
Cape more likely to be town in this scenario imo, since he was the most recent vote on bakermir and might have been more self conscious about that unless he expected things to move.

I think probably this is a fine place to start, wanting to kill porscha/auwt/lily/dm more out of everyone kinda but like i don't like finding neutrals

1. Why are you assuming v/v/v twice over in this (in pink). Frame it another way: why is this assumption appealing to you //// why should we take these assumptions over others?

2. Why is it that after these assumptions you arrive at "a fine place to start"???

[MartinGG99]

I guess maybe you answered # 1 there with your first sentence of the post I quoted but like

I didn't really get it

[MartinGG99]

No.

I love that we added that to this site. Didn't know.

[MartinGG99]

if huo is a wolf then i feel like MM is likely a wolf with him based on how things played out, which is something especially i thought that you had thought too (based on your first post this cycle).
the problem with this is that means that the other wolves should have been placed so that huo huo wouldn't die, and i don't see how they would have been. Maybe a wolf on oli with huo huo ready to jump if neccesary

Like, maybe martin /could/ have been the third wolf there and his vote and retraction on bakermir and then vote on huo huo was more distancing but i'm kinda intoxicated right now and probably shouldn't be thinking too hard on this

I'm not sure if the assumption that there is a planned non-killing vote switch to HuoHuo is a good assumption to have considering Porscha's vote on Huo Huo existed around 6 hours before EoD, and the third vote on Baker (from Oli) was around 5.5 hours before EoD. There were also only 8 re-votes/votes/vote-switches after Oli's from only 5 different people.

So I don't think whatever happened at EoD was really planned or controlled by the wolves. Maybe wolves had some influence in it, but not enough to substantiate that "if X is wolf then Y is prob town/wolf" based off of EoD.

[MartinGG99]

Actually make that 6 votes and 4 different people, since one of them was Helz and he's obviously a wolf.

[MartinGG99]

Omg martin didn't exclude himself so he must be wolf!!! I KNOW WHAT YOU'RE THINKING. Shush.

[oliverz144]

I don't feel like this is a genuine thought, vote-switching at EoD can easily be read or argued as AI almost entirely irrespective of the circumstances. Too-wolf-to-be-a-wolf doesn't really work if its easily wifomable.

Also really just looks at things at sort of a...strange face-value way.

There's no questioning of me about it.

There's no mention of me saying idk about either wagons.

Its just entirely focused on the fact that I switched and that we know one of the flips.

So I can't really buy that if you're town that you're reading me as "prob v" off this.

i do
i have you and mm as town for eod

[oliverz144]

yeah idk

-vote cape90

[MartinGG99]

Most of the posts after that don't have something I wanted to interact with. I haven't fully caught up yet, but almost there.

So what I wanted to share now is this: I've been juggling some thoughts in the background on several topics, since when I returned I did check the vote count to see where things were going and so I'm well aware of Huo Huo's claim.

1. Cape probably bad. Its tough to take in tbh, as I didn't really see any warning signs that I was wrong and he was among my stronger d1-temporary reads, but I think its important to resolving this day.

2. DM semi-strong town. Not only did baker vouch for him in terms of meta (and I respect baker fwiw, he can be off here or there but he can be preety right at times -- he occasionally treats me like a rival or something lol), but also he picked out something from Cape's post that stuck out to me while I was researching.

3. MM very strong town. Mind-melding on a few things and he has had similar reactions that I've had moments earlier while reading up. I don't really have any doubt here, not thinking it nor even feeling it, which might risk me into confirmation-bias'ing here because in recent games I had with him I regarded him with some distance based on past interactions in past games.

3. I'm suspicious of Mizery. Maybe the drunkness they mentioned is playing a part in all this, but that can be a factor regardless of alignment in terms of making them look suspicious to me.

4. Lily probably town. I'm just vibing 80% of it, but also Baker vouch. Also semi-liked their response to Mizery's wagonomics post or whatever.

5. And if it needed to be said, I still agree with my thoughts at EoD1. I like porscha.

[Auwt]

I just want to say that imo if we take Mizery / DM pool, we almost likely hit an evil all day.
Apart from that, I will have to read D2.

[MartinGG99]

Still the possibility that he's the evil teacher and not grave digger

Possible I guess, but would imply that Huo Huo genuinely scumread Cape90. If you're evil teacher and targeting Helz (confirmed town), then you're intentionally also targeting someone who's not town as well otherwise no deaths. And those deaths are probably protect-able against, so if true, why even target helz as evil teacher tbh

[MartinGG99]

Hi, DM. Your God complex is annoying. You're also probably wrong about Mizery, whose tone is pretty pure (and you're definetly wrong about me lol). Begone; crawl back into the hole from whence you came.

explain/expand pl0x @Marshmallow Marshall

fmpov I've been seeing the same-ish things that DM has, at least the stuff that DM has mentioned

[MartinGG99]

as well as the interesting pushes / posts that Mizery has made today which feel a bit agenda'ed imo

[MartinGG99]

I want to acknowledge the fact that DM has issues with MM but idk how to tackle that just yet.

I mean, I could lay out all my thoughts but from my knowledge of DM I may not convince him since he can be very off doing his "own thing" when it comes to solving.

But I do want to prevent it from being a detraction in the future since I believe both MM and DM to be town currently.

For now

-vote cape90

[oliverz144]

yeah red check

[MartinGG99]

Possible I guess, but would imply that Huo Huo genuinely scumread Cape90. If you're evil teacher and targeting Helz (confirmed town), then you're intentionally also targeting someone who's not town as well otherwise no deaths. And those deaths are probably protect-able against, so if true, why even target helz as evil teacher tbh

Oh and I forgot to add:

I did consider Huo Huo bussing Cape90, as that would easily be another explanation, but it just seemed unlikely to me given Cape was probably in a preety defensible position even if suspected.

[MartinGG99]

And if it were mafia wanting to bus Huo Huo, I would figure they would probably do something other than an undeniable red-check thunderdome to distance from Cape90/Huo Huo over.

[Mizery]

Also

I'm like used to being respected by some people and/or being treated as a bit hard to read. This just feels disrespectfully opposite of that.

I mean (dis)respect as the technical term with only neutral connotation.

lmfao I'm sorry what

[Mizery]

Not a single post martin made today has been good

[oliverz144]

dark magician, tje cool kid (mm quote) screameedand pushed and cried and bragged and whatever bull shit, but didnt vote cape90 ?!???

-vote dark magician

[Mizery]

Sorry Martin that from what i've played with you I have a different opinion of you than you do of yourself

you don't need to understand my methods of making reads, I'm used to people thinking my methods are pretty stupid and fake.

It's not disrespectful to play the game though and the ego you must have to feel personal disrespect that I'm trying to read you is pretty lol. I don't even know how to read that alignment wise. Probably just makes you more town.

[Mizery]

1. Why are you assuming v/v/v twice over in this (in pink). Frame it another way: why is this assumption appealing to you //// why should we take these assumptions over others?

2. Why is it that after these assumptions you arrive at "a fine place to start"???

tell me what other assumptions you'd like to work from?

Do you think Oli is a wolf? Do you think huo huo is a wolf?

Oli's most recent post is more wolfy than not, but do you have a big issue with my PoE at SoD?

[oliverz144]

tell me what other assumptions you'd like to work from?

Do you think Oli is a wolf? Do you think huo huo is a wolf?

Oli's most recent post is more wolfy than not, but do you have a big issue with my PoE at SoD?

ay yo we need to pressure him
this whole day and whole game feels dead and slow

[MartinGG99]

Sorry Martin that from what i've played with you I have a different opinion of you than you do of yourself

you don't need to understand my methods of making reads, I'm used to people thinking my methods are pretty stupid and fake.

It's not disrespectful to play the game though and the ego you must have to feel personal disrespect that I'm trying to read you is pretty lol. I don't even know how to read that alignment wise. Probably just makes you more town.

um

I was trying to make it clear that I meant all that without connotation. As in, all that extra feely stuff or whatever that people put on to the word "respect" in some contexts. When people say respect usually it has something extra implicitly added on to it beyond consideration to something. To give an example, the most common usage of "respect" I've seen is the saying "with respect to" or w.r.t. To give consideration to.

Its not that I have an ego -- honestly I'm surprised when people think I'm capable and/or very difficult to read. But generally (and often on this site ime) people would sometimes regard me differently than others for reasons seeming other than meta.

[MartinGG99]

To give an example, the most common usage of "respect" with the least connotation I've seen is the saying "with respect to" or w.r.t. To give consideration to.
.

ebwop

[MartinGG99]

tell me what other assumptions you'd like to work from?

Do you think Oli is a wolf? Do you think huo huo is a wolf?

Oli's most recent post is more wolfy than not, but do you have a big issue with my PoE at SoD?

I'm just trying to understand where your thought process is behind picking that specific assumption of v/v/v and (seemingly) sticking with it for the most part. I'll stick my answers to your questions further down my post.

I mean, in theory, we have the following possible assumptions:

Oli / [baker always v] / Huo

v / / v
w / / w
w / / v
v / / w

Out of all those four, you make a whole post about the v/v/v assumption and then call that a good place to start. You didn't discuss the other possible assumptions you could make, and as far as I understood you didn't really argue why this assumption (the v/v/v) assumption should be preferable to the others. If it were me, and I had no particular reason to discuss one assumption over all the others, then the "good place to start" would be either before exploring any of those assumptions or after exploring all of them. It strikes me strange and possibly agenda'ed to go after one assumption and then just stop there by calling it a good place to start. So I'm curious what made you go with v/v/v, even if its just an assumption.



As far as what assumptions I have: Assumptions aren't that very important to my decision-making and solving atm. I mean, they can be preety helpful for nuance-finding but right now I'm not assuming much and going off a pragmatic decision that the choice for today is to vote off cape. I'll probably investigate some more later. Although, I supposed you could say me taking Baker's reads into account is sort of an assumption in of itself -- the assumption that another town is correct. In which case I have been doing that a mild bit. Most of my recent solving were dealing with that in mind to some extent.

As far as Huo Huo: He has made a red-check claim -- if he's lying then he very likely dies. If he's right then its preety likely he's town.

As far as Oli Oli: I remain a bit skeptical about Oli, I think he has some promise but its been awhile since I've seen Oli seriously play and that limits my ability to be confident about him in any way. I've seen games where he basically doesn't play the game at all (i.e. irrelevant posts), make obviously illogical progressions, and more as both town and mafia. Back on D1 it semeed like Oli was town given his case on Baker -- it just felt like something town oli would be more prone to doing than mafia oli. I'm likely to re-evaluate Oli later.

As far as your "PoE": I didn't really have any thoughts or comments about it. I assume you're referring to when you said porscha/auwt/lily/dm. I have my own reads of those people, but just because you have a different take on them or whatever doesn't make you more or less scum. What matters is how you're solving and that's what I wanted to find out about more with this line of questioning about your choice of assumptions.

[oliverz144]

i think auwt is scum
he came in and postwd one post and then left

[Lilypetal]

-vote cape90

[oliverz144]

-vote cape90

see this is normal person
not dm or auwt

[Dark Magician]

Martin you are right on Mizery.
Do me a favour and also look at Cape with them.
They are both wolves aligned.

As for MM I was wrong, the last wolf after Cape and Mizery is probably Oliver but we can deal with them and see about it after Cape and Mizery the Big Bad Wolved Perish.

[Dark Magician]

see this is normal person
not dm or auwt

Auwt is another candidate besides you for that last mafia spot.
I still didn’t mind the post you made yesterday, I still think it could have came from a town agenda.

Auwt called me and Mizery contained a wolf and hadn’t read the fact Cape was red checked.

[Dark Magician]

You wanna like not vote me over the red check though?
Thanks.

[Luka]

so cape is red checked?

so i was right?

hehe :3

-vote cape

Town. Feels genuinly satisfied with themselves that they caught a scum, doesn't feel as though they're bussing.