S-FM 342: A Small Game

[Lumi]

Or this one. Althought it should be Everyone’s tracked not watch but whatever

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php..._Being_Watched

Tracking everyone and watching everyone are technically the same thing

In a scenario where D1 is a Vanilla lynch (5 out of 9 probability), the Mafia would likely never target a Kill because the Global Tracker is obligated to use their ability N1 and find the killer if they do. If I understand it correctly.
Most games would have D2 start with a PoE of 3, in which 2 are Mafia players.
7v2 Town can always afford 2 mislynches.

The way I see the setup, it's balance is absolutely atrocious. I might be missing something though because of the 2 games played, Mafia won 1.

I believe mafia have the option to holster their night kill to avoid being instantly outed, but the setup still feels rather town-sided.

Using the assumptions that are used in the EV Project, town wins this setup 44.74% of the time.

The problem with EV Project expected winrates is that they treat day eliminations as purely random. Another way to read that is the rate at which town will win when they completely turn off their brain and just vote randomly. AKA town should pretty much always win at least as often as the EV Project winrate.

For reference setups used in MU champs typically have 25-35% expected winrate if you treat power roles as just named town and town eliminates randomly. After factoring in power roles the EV Project winrate is more in the 30-40% range
The "balanced" 11v2 mountainous setup has a 39.49% EV Project winrate.

This setup being at 44.74% definitely makes it numerically town-sided, doubly so since IMO the town's power roles tilt the balance more in town's favor than mafia's favor.