S-FM 327 : Last Hope

[WrathCyber]

So much for "Lynching in this case is not to be taken lightly"


Perhaps, "Those who are hurrying to vote right off the bat should be the most suspicious."

Seems to me you haven't read my enlightenment on the fact that we cannot skip lynches and there has to be a person that needs to be lynched. So far, you have contributed 0 leads and reads

[blinkskater]

I was talking about alignment paranoia, not reads paranoia. different things.
Scum literally cant have alignment paranoia, only reads paranoia.

Is every OMGUS universally scummy to you btw?

paranoia is paranoia, and yes I will scumread every mfer who feels wrong, gets overly defensive, and then votes and calls someone scum for literally getting a scum read

[blinkskater]

I thought you were done with me?

well you keep coming back for seconds

[Oberon]

wrathcyber changing his read is NAI 100%, if anything I'd sooner write that off as town-indicative than scum indicative, for a new player he's doing very well


also, how does this attack on wrathcyber reconcile with the claim that he's too confident for a new player?

[WrathCyber]

@WrathCyber explain why you changed your read on varcron so quickly

Simply because he's the only other person that seems to have reevaluated his read on me? I see you're still lynching evils without proper evaluations.

[OzyWho]

I'll be insulted if I'm not hit tonight tbh. Scum let us form a towncore too easily and power roles are going to wreck them.

lol

[Lumi]

paranoia is paranoia, and yes I will scumread every mfer who feels wrong, gets overly defensive, and then votes and calls someone scum for literally getting a scum read

How dense are you? It's not about the scumread - it's the fact that you continue to be convinced that I am not a new player despite all the evidence to the contrary

I'm not getting defensive because you scumread me, I'm getting defensive because you're accusing me of having lied to nearly a dozen different people about being new to FM just to get a tiny edge in the game.

[OzyWho]

Just want to agree on the consensus of who exactly we're voting for today. So far we've gleaned that PQR is the most suspicious, does anyone else have anyone else in mind?

I find PQT the most suspicious.
Most others find YOU the most suspicious.

This is like the classic Day2 in the mod "any leads?".

[WrathCyber]

If anything, I'm more opposed to my initial opinion of you ceko. Tunneling on one person this hard can only be indicative that
1) you are town, and stubborn
2) scum pushing for lynch.

I can't help but notice that you are the first one to push lynches in this thread and when questioned, responding that it was your strat to push for lynches?

[Frinckles]

everyone, im a new player

[Oberon]

everyone, im a new player

same

[theoneceko]

If anything, I'm more opposed to my initial opinion of you ceko. Tunneling on one person this hard can only be indicative that
1) you are town, and stubborn
2) scum pushing for lynch.

I can't help but notice that you are the first one to push lynches in this thread and when questioned, responding that it was your strat to push for lynches?

that was my strat at the beginning of this game. now, i'm genuinely pushing for lynches. if i take my vote off you, it'll be because i genuinely think you're not scum.

[OzyWho]

I'm not on the defensive I'm on the attack and I'm not voting him because he voted me, I'm voting him because I think he's a wolf.

You are making about as much sense as he is and seem to be defending him quite hard

You misunderstood me. I was talking about him.

[WrathCyber]

In this setup where town has majority (10v3+1NE), It would at the very least take shadows until N4-N5 to get rid of most town and that's not accounting for the fact
that elemental magus is constantly levelling other town members.

AFAIK base shadow roles do not have killing abilities lv1 and must be leveled to have some sort of killing ability (e.g Terrible Prophet (Kill), Wicked Necromancer (All), and of course the faction leader Darkness (Kill, Roleblock, Utility). The probability of rolling these two roles discounting the fact of the shadow faction leader however, is:

2/5 = 40% probability to role each role. Using Permutations (nPr) we can cut down having both roles to be n!/(n-r)! where n=both killing roles out of r=sample size of 5 to equate to 20% of having both killing roles

however, even if Shadows somehow both rolled killing roles, to gain the killing ability for shadows that would mean Darkness would have to level them up one by one until n3, each night. This means that during that time he is not under leveling any town/heroes where the elemental magus would have the best advantage.


On the other hand:
During this time, elemental magus's focus should be on discerning whether if someone is hero or villager to best utilize their ability of levelling.
Given each Hero spot, since there are 6 types of heroes, the expected value for having a wizard role given one spot is 1/6 = 0.16, and since there are 2 hero spots, from just the two spots we have an xR of 0.5 to upgrade one member one way. As I've said before, the best way to maximize town's winning chance is to have the priority of upgrading town into a hero. The more heroes there are, the more confirmations we can receive and the more utility we can use. TP roles such as Priest and Knight seems to be the best roles town should achieve, as both roles equally help confirm more than 2 town members immediately and greatly help the survivability of town.

@OzyWho Read this if you're confused from where I'm coming from with not lynching d1.

[PQRnHack]

everyone, im a new player

Not only new but also really SHITTY!

[blinkskater]

How dense are you? It's not about the scumread - it's the fact that you continue to be convinced that I am not a new player despite all the evidence to the contrary

I'm not getting defensive because you scumread me, I'm getting defensive because you're accusing me of having lied to nearly a dozen different people about being new to FM just to get a tiny edge in the game.

Blah fucking Blah evidence evidence? OOG evidence doesn't do it for me bud.

Why do you ignore the defensiveness you showed on like page 3 where my read started to formulate? You literally got defensive and voted me for voting you and calling it not an RVS vote, you took the sheep bait you scumbag. Me saying why I think you sound wrong tonally, You saying OOG waaaah OOG

[WrathCyber]

I also do not want to push anyone to reveal their roles, ESPECIALLY if they are hero/magus. This will make them a huge target for shadows.

[Frinckles]

-vote varcron

[OzyWho]

you could also just be copying the way i speak tbh. i can't tell if you made that quote after reading my iso on wrath or not

Ftr, wrath flipping red wouldnt clear pqr even a little bit in my eyes.

[theoneceko]

Ftr, wrath flipping red wouldnt clear pqr even a little bit in my eyes.

yea, i was thinking that pqr is self-pressing since she is at l-5 (top train atm)

[OzyWho]

paranoia is paranoia, and yes I will scumread every mfer who feels wrong, gets overly defensive, and then votes and calls someone scum for literally getting a scum read

This is like trying to discuss fine art with Hulk. There's no depth or nuance in your Mafia theory.


Let's agree to disagree.

But I agree though, that ultra focus on that 1 scumread on him was a bit much.

[WrathCyber]

Ftr, wrath flipping red wouldnt clear pqr even a little bit in my eyes.

I don't care what you think. I care about the results. In this case, PQR indeed has the highest probability of being scum.
1. They were not here when I made my original post about the three anon lurkers
2. They've contributed no actual reads
3. Avoiding direct confrontations when people call him out for being scum.

I chock this up as nothing but suspicious.

[blinkskater]

This is like trying to discuss fine art with Hulk. There's no depth or nuance in your Mafia theory.


Let's agree to disagree.

But I agree though, that ultra focus on that 1 scumread on him was a bit much.

are you trying to imply i'm a big green dumb brute with no intellectual fortitude?

And that's all i've been trying to explain without Lag spamming "MY FIRST FM GAME ASK HELZ"

[OzyWho]

wrathcyber changing his read is NAI 100%, if anything I'd sooner write that off as town-indicative than scum indicative, for a new player he's doing very well

Fair enough.

also, how does this attack on wrathcyber reconcile with the claim that he's too confident for a new player?

What are you referring to? I must have missed an argument that he's too confident.
But it's a good point though. I think for scum overconfidence in townreads is just TMI; same as hedging on scumreads.

[Lumi]

are you trying to imply i'm a big green dumb brute with no intellectual fortitude?

And that's all i've been trying to explain without Lag spamming "MY FIRST FM GAME ASK HELZ"

You're an ass.

If you need me I'll be taking ZZorange's lead for the rest of day 1

[OzyWho]

Simply because he's the only other person that seems to have reevaluated his read on me? I see you're still lynching evils without proper evaluations.

How do you know that you're evil? ohh.. wait..

But anyhow, do I understand you correct? Varcron started to scumread you so you started to scumread Varcron just for that? I mean that's what you're saying here..

[Varcron]

-vote varcron

</3

Y u do dis

[Varcron]

How do you know that you're evil? ohh.. wait..

But anyhow, do I understand you correct? Varcron started to scumread you so you started to scumread Varcron just for that? I mean that's what you're saying here..

That is what it came across as

[OzyWho]

If anything, I'm more opposed to my initial opinion of you ceko. Tunneling on one person this hard can only be indicative that
1) you are town, and stubborn
2) scum pushing for lynch.

He could be town or he could be scum... yeah... I agree.

-vote WrathCyber

[Oberon]

@OzyWho I think it was ceko who said that, and not you

[blinkskater]

You're an ass.

If you need me I'll be taking ZZorange's lead for the rest of day 1

You've now called me dense, an ass, and a sociopath, and i'm just calling you scum. I've seen this movie before .

[OzyWho]

@OzyWho Read this if you're confused from where I'm coming from with not lynching d1.

Didn't you say earlier that you got enlightened about there being to lynch skip?
What's the meaning of this?

Seems to me you haven't read my enlightenment on the fact that we cannot skip lynches and there has to be a person that needs to be lynched.

Anyhow, i'm feel certain that this wraith-pqr is SJ-Auwt all over again.

[theoneceko]

To make you think exactly what you think

i liked this jab at crichard. this was posted before i revealed that i thought crichard was being scummy

Yeah I learned of that mechanic in an earlier game. Good thing there's incognito mode.

It's not. In an earlier game, someone listed out all players online in the thread right before a day's end. I think that mechanic is cheesy. My PC is on 24/7 anyway, I could just exit Incongito mode and put an auto-refresher on But then OMG my name will appear on the Lurker list 24/7.

looked like pqrn was openly claiming wolf, but she explained herself soon after. +townpoints for a genuine tone

Fact check-checking Ozy here, checks out.

Wraith posted his list with Varcron as townish at minute :37. Also added "Agree with Vacron [sic]" for Scum being in the AFK Lurker gang. Unvoted LagAttack and voted Varcron at minute :45. That does seem a bit sus. Around that time, it looks like Wrath got a bit defensive towards Varcron asking Wrath for his reads as well as towards LagAttack for challenging Wrath's Oberon read.

At minute :48 to LagAttack: "Unlike you and Vacron who are actively manipulating this thread by using preconceived opinions about a specific player as a reason for placing them as town or scum."

And :56 to LagAttack: "Interesting take, but I'd trust my sense on this one that Varcron is likely shadow."

Quite a 180 in the span of 20 minutes

could be pocketing me idk. i doubt she's capable of that, considering that she's relatively new

I did not suggest to do so. I said that unless there is some crazy mad move made by Scum D1, it seems unlikely for me that a pro would slip up, so I expect majority of this D1 genius analysis here to be speculation that's not much better than a random lynch. However, a newbie Shadow could possibly slip up, but then I might be biased to vote a newer player if restricting my voting pool only to those. ANyway, the day is still young.

genuine town paranoia

~~~

i don't think we should lynch pqrnhack today. she knows a lot about the setup, but the only world she's scum in is if she's pocketing me, which she's too new to attempt

[Frinckles]

Y u do dis

cuz u scum
cuz u no scumhunt
cuz u flip floppity awkwardly
cuz u put the onus of scumhunting on literally anyone else
cuz u no get pushed except by 1 and a half peeple
cuz u expain away everything
cuz u appeel 2 emotion
cuz u voting dumb dumb who wants to lynch top posters
cuz u refer to town in third person



and
cuz u smack dab right in the middle of my reads list

Did you ever read Goldilocks?

The small bowl is too scummy.
The big bowl is too towny.
But the medium bowl is just right.

[WrathCyber]

How do you know that you're evil? ohh.. wait..

But anyhow, do I understand you correct? Varcron started to scumread you so you started to scumread Varcron just for that? I mean that's what you're saying here..

No, do you even read posts? It seems as you've missed the 10+ messages that I defended Oberon because he was being accused of being scum almost immediately. Especially because he was showing an honest effort in defending himself. Varcron clearly changed his opinion, showing lateral thinking indicative of what a town player would try to do, which is why I changed my opinion on him. On the other hand, we have ceko and lagattack(AFAIK) showing the same tunnel vision towards Oberon especially. This would be a high scum play to make in accusing 1 player out of 15 on D1.

HOWEVER!! I could be completely wrong, and they're just on another level of scumreading.

[theoneceko]

Fair enough.



What are you referring to? I must have missed an argument that he's too confident.
But it's a good point though. I think for scum overconfidence in townreads is just TMI; same as hedging on scumreads.

that's in my iso on wrath

[OzyWho]

are you trying to imply i'm a big green dumb brute with no intellectual fortitude?

I better not answer this..

[theoneceko]

Simply because he's the only other person that seems to have reevaluated his read on me? I see you're still lynching evils without proper evaluations.

wait, so ur saying ur an evil but my reason for thinking ur evil is wrong??

xDDDDD

[theoneceko]

How do you know that you're evil? ohh.. wait..

But anyhow, do I understand you correct? Varcron started to scumread you so you started to scumread Varcron just for that? I mean that's what you're saying here..

@blinkskater

vote wrath bc of this. im ur pure townie, wrath did the same thing to varc that lagattack is doing to you

[WrathCyber]

I am exasperated at your line of reasoning, @OzyWho but if it makes you feel a bit better at having a small ego, go ahead and vote for me.

-vote PQRnHack

[theoneceko]

besides @blinkskater , i think you still haven't read lagattack's posts after her OMGUS. they all make her look TOWN TOWN TOWN

[OzyWho]

You're an ass.

If you need me I'll be taking ZZorange's lead for the rest of day 1

Appeal to Emotion excuse to stop playing AND to follow a "I don't give a fuck about the game" guy?
All because of 1 guys opinion? @LagAttack wtf mate?

[blinkskater]

@blinkskater

vote wrath bc of this. im ur pure townie, wrath did the same thing to varc that lagattack is doing to you

I've never even had an interaction with wrath and would rather not vote someone I haven't interacted with.

On that note @WrathCyber are you scum reading people because they scum read you and actually trying to pass that off as a valid read?

[blinkskater]

There are only 3 players who have even commented on any of myself and Lag's arguments.

Frinckles
Ozy
Ceko
Most people choose to ignore this and I can think of a few reasons why

[WrathCyber]

Updated my reads right now so you guys know what I'm thinking:

Town
oberon
theoneceko
Varcron


Neutral
blinkstater
Frinckles
OzyWho
LagAttack


Scum
zzOrange
PQRnHacj
NumberTwo

[WrathCyber]

I've never even had an interaction with wrath and would rather not vote someone I haven't interacted with.

On that note @WrathCyber are you scum reading people because they scum read you and actually trying to pass that off as a valid read?

No, Ozy is just gaslighting a response. He clearly has seen my messages.

[blinkskater]

besides @blinkskater , i think you still haven't read lagattack's posts after her OMGUS. they all make her look TOWN TOWN TOWN

I've skimmed the enitre game and have no idea what you're talking about

[OzyWho]

i liked this jab at crichard. this was posted before i revealed that i thought crichard was being scummy




looked like pqrn was openly claiming wolf, but she explained herself soon after. +townpoints for a genuine tone



could be pocketing me idk. i doubt she's capable of that, considering that she's relatively new



genuine town paranoia

~~~

i don't think we should lynch pqrnhack today. she knows a lot about the setup, but the only world she's scum in is if she's pocketing me, which she's too new to attempt

This is nothing like my impression of PQR at all..
Fine, I will follow your lead on Wrath and focus on re-evaluating pqr D2 probably.

[theoneceko]

I've skimmed the enitre game and have no idea what you're talking about

was talking after her initial OMGUS. not the back-and-forth between u two rn

[blinkskater]

No, Ozy is just gaslighting a response. He clearly has seen my messages.

So you don't even scum read Varcron?