Why lynch a doctor who reveals during trial?

[TheJackofSpades]

Hey guys, my comp crashed during a power outage so now i have to reinstall windows so i'll be out for at least the moment. Thought I'd toss out a bit of strategy in the mean time so bear with me as I give the run down of my thought process.

The question of the day: Why lynch a revealed doctor?
This has been bugging me for the past couple of days, and to be honest it makes very little sense to me. The usual excuse I hear people say is that they are revealed so they are dead already. Sure, this is possible. But they can't be any more dead than being lynched by the town.
Here's why:
1) Case 1 - Actually a doctor: Best case scenario, the next night both the mafia and the SK hit the doctor because doctors must be eliminated before going after sheriff/invest. One person dies, the person you were going to kill anyway so it effectively means the same thing as if the doctor had successfully healed a double kill(which is impossible to do on your own as a doctor). This actually improves the doctors efficiency for one turn by 100%. Even if this is not the case, and the sk and mafia target different targets, it still wastes one of their kills and extends your effective healing lifespan for one turn with an almost guaranteed chance of success.
2) Case 2- SK: Same deal here basically, the SK will get to kill another turn but Mafia will probably end up killing the "doctor" anyway, wasting their kill for the night. Basically this ends up as the neutral ground as it were, the worst that could happen here assuming the mafia goes for the announced doctor is that you end up in the same place you would have if you lynched him to begin with.

So assuming the mafia at least goes for the doctor, you come out neutral at the least, with varying levels of higher efficiency the better the scenario becomes beyond that.

Your thoughts?

[Leafie]

Bus driver could be used, I think it's stupid and a waste of a townie. Also, the doctor can heal for 1 more night, as you said. Killing him is a waste overall.

[Faceless]

If the "doctor" was actually a mafia who just happened to be swapped by bus driver, then this could be a problem. Plus, if you don't lynch, then you're potentially wasting that day's lynch.

Assume the accused Doctor is actually a Godfather who was swapped. If you let him go free, he survives the night, and mafia obviously won't kill the godfather, so he won't turn up dead the next day. Maybe the bus driver will even swap him again, causing even more confusion. The end result would be a Godfather who can lie about being Doctor all day long with no consequences, making it that much harder to lie about being mafia.

Even if his lie was caught, it would probably require the real doctor coming out which is still really bad.

Best thing to do in my opinion? Be careful about who you call out. If you find a potential SK/Doctor, calling him out is a gamble. If he's actually doctor, he's screwed and it's all your fault and you gained nothing but a dead townie. If it's the serial killer, the real doctor might have to come out which will still have the same result-- a dead doctor. Be careful about how soon/in what way you call out a potential bad guy, because more often than not it will have unforeseen consequences.

[TheJackofSpades]

Thanks for the replies guys, Faceless I hadn't thought about adding the bus driver complexity into the scenario and I agree that at that point things certainly do get a little hazy. I think my "analysis" really only refers to the standard scenario of "Invest claims someone has knives; they are insta-lynched" in an attempt to snag a SK. I don't think I could adequately consider scenarios involving BD meddling without a lot of serious thought and deliberating(and even then I couldn't guarantee any point of accuracy). Imo BD adds a serious level of complexity since it requires so much knowledge about multiple players movements during the night to get a grasp at what is going on. But I'm getting slightly OT so I digress.

I hope my insane ramblings maybe cleared a bit of that up. You're certainly right though if it's not known for certain that the player on trial has knives. Thanks!

[ElijahIsCool]

Hmm, I would say, If I was an SK pretending to be a doctor on trial, I would say:

''Im a Spy, the mafia is [so and so]! So lynch me, your lynching an innocent doctor.''

[TheJackofSpades]

Anyone else care to share their opinion? 4 replies, 75 views. 8-)

[MileS]

Doctor is a common Mafia fake-claim.

[Zack]

Personally, when i'm investi and I find knives, or when i'm sheriff and I actually find a SK, I won't reveal it if all mafia are alive. Same if I find an Arsonist. I won't have the neutral killer lynched until the mafia has been whittled down. In the case of a witch I may also keep it to myself, depends.

I do keep my findings in my last will though, so if I die...

[Teckman]

Your worst case scenario is definitely not break even.

If they are SK you have allowed an additional kill to go out, we'll say it goes to a townie since this is worst case. Also the sheriff now has to burn a turn on the SK that could have just been lynched previously. The Sheriff could also die that night if he has not already outed himself.

If they are a doctor you are obviously better off with them alive but have now opened them up to be targeted by a consort or witch as well as for a kill.

On average, with only an investigator finding knives to go on, I would agree you generally should not lynch someone claiming doctor. But it is not accurate to say that it is never a mistake and you will always at least "come out neutral".

[Zack]

Yes, it is a gamble, a risk in a way. But a SK will start aiming for mafia if he sees the town is losing, in most cases the SK will even prefer to see the town win over the mafia before he dies, same for arsonist. When I say mafia whittled down, its one member down, if there are 3 mafia to start with like in most games that is. Once one mafia member is gone, then I feel free to point out the SK or Arso.

[TheJackofSpades]

Your worst case scenario is definitely not break even.

If they are SK you have allowed an additional kill to go out, we'll say it goes to a townie since this is worst case. Also the sheriff now has to burn a turn on the SK that could have just been lynched previously. The Sheriff could also die that night if he has not already outed himself.

If they are a doctor you are obviously better off with them alive but have now opened them up to be targeted by a consort or witch as well as for a kill.

On average, with only an investigator finding knives to go on, I would agree you generally should not lynch someone claiming doctor. But it is not accurate to say that it is never a mistake and you will always at least "come out neutral".

Again, this idea comes off the assumption that the mafia does not know who the SK is, and the idea that revealed doctors are the biggest targets. It's based off the common excuse that "He's revealed so he's dead anyway".

If this IS true, then the above scenarios would occur because the mafia WILL target the doctor. I consider one attack being burned on the doctor that night who would have been killed anyway to be the same as the doctor healing someone that turn. Not to mention said doctor could hypothetically heal the target the SK attacks as well as they die.

Let me try and clear up the whole worst case SK thing too.
Scenario 1 - Doctor - You lynch him. Mafia is guaranteed to attack a town the next night. Two town die as a result. (We'll ignore SK in this case since either way he's gonna kill again if doctor is on trial)
Scenario 2 - Doctor - You don't lynch him. Mafia attacks doctor to get him out of the way. One town dies as a result.
Scenario 3 - SK - You lynch him. Mafia is guaranteed to attack a town the next night. One town dies as a result.
Scenario 4 - SK - You don't lynch him. Mafia attacks him to get him out of the way. SK has the chance of attacking mafia OR town. No town die(or 1 with varying degrees of chance).

[wightsnow]

Scenario 2 - Doctor - You don't lynch him. Mafia attacks doctor to get him out of the way. One town dies as a result.

2 town might die because SK could kill someone (if he's in game at all). However, there's also a slight chance the doc can save someone from the SK. Or the SK can double target the doc.

[TheJackofSpades]

Scenario 2 - Doctor - You don't lynch him. Mafia attacks doctor to get him out of the way. One town dies as a result.

2 town might die because SK could kill someone (if he's in game at all). However, there's also a slight chance the doc can save someone from the SK. Or the SK can double target the doc.

This is true but like scenario 1 this is irrelevant because SK would be alive either way.

[wightsnow]

This is true but like scenario 1 this is irrelevant because SK would be alive either way.

But in the case of the double kill, town has 1 more alive.

[TheJackofSpades]

This is true but like scenario 1 this is irrelevant because SK would be alive either way.

But in the case of the double kill, town has 1 more alive.

Correct, I address this more in my original post.

[Clawtrocity]

FYI JACK FAILS WITH THIS STRAT

[wightsnow]

FYI JACK FAILS WITH THIS STRAT

He really tried using it in a bad way. The "time to test out a theory" really makes you sound like SK.

Edit: or at least someone evil.

[TheJackofSpades]

It's not something that can be perfected in a single instance. I didn't know the discussion time of trial was going to be like 10 seconds long, i'm used to goon's times.

I think with time I could test this theory in-game but I'd need cooperation to do so. I agree with you though, I was just trying to get people who might have read this thread to support me in that instance.

[Clawtrocity]

Your plan says you get investigated, in all the games you've tried it you haven't been investigated and put up.

[TheJackofSpades]

Your plan says you get investigated, in all the games you've tried it you haven't been investigated and put up.

You're absolutely right. I am finding it increasingly difficult to find instances where I can test this personally, as I am getting better and better at avoiding being lynched while playing town roles. If anyone would like to try this argument out for me under the circumstance that you are being lynched for having knives and post your results here, I would be very appreciative.

[wightsnow]

Actually, i found this thread to be advice if you're playing town deciding whether to lynch someone. Not the one being lynched.

[TheJackofSpades]

I'm glad to hear that. Did something similar to what I described happen as a result? I would very much be interested in gathering data on this, as my theory is still flawed and I would like to revise it with hard proof.