@Guillo
My quantified reasoning. Next post also details why heals and kills are dictated on you or stealth or scum runs a 75% game loss chance
Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.
Ok then. We kill Luona who has given up, after lynching a wolf and the priest blocking the kill, her WIM should be skyrocketed, instead she is like this.
Yesterday she played like she didnt care she got scum read but today she is acting like she is scared of getting push over and feels like she is waiting for the tables to turn.
If the game does not end and we still live, the priest can out and from there the game is auto. If one of us die, we kill Yapyap whom is still my biggest scum read. If not then we reevaluate the game.
Tell the truth and you'll lie good.
But are you on board with follow the cop strat?
Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.
My mechancal crunch was pure deductive reasoning breaking down win chances. Do you feel the rest of the town should go with it?
Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.
It’s a shame this game has no hammer
Tell the truth and you'll lie good.
My analysis on Luona.
1) She has been answering questions and being nice, but overall she has minimal interaction with people. Nothing she has posted so far shows her best effort to analyze the game. I think this also affected how I felt towards everyone. Aside from other things, people who seemed to have tried their best to read and analyze players have earned what little trust I could give them, because it feels they have nothing to hide, and are genuinely thinking that way for whatever the reason. She does give us her reads on players but I felt they were too generic for a town to give. Is that because she fears she might slip as scum if she went into further detail? By the way, I am no way underestimating her as a player. No.
2) Her not voting Oliver (I do feel voting pattern and the circumstances around the votes matter)
3) She has minimal interaction with Oliver. I have a feeling mafia would be careful not to show too much interaction with another member (but I could definitely be wrong in this one)
4) She asks this question, which Oliver never really answers, but she drops this issue. I think this is her way of trying to be 'seen' as pushing Oliver as the wagon builds up.
5) Luona leaves out Oliver in her read.
6) I couldn't quite pick at why I felt so weird about this. But now I know why I felt weird. At this point in the game, even if we (not I, because we are wagonning) are making the wrong choice here about Luona, it is absolutely in her best interest to convince us otherwise. We might have a headway with lynching Oliver day 1 and preventing a kill night 1, there is still a chance scum could win. Instead she kind of (i learned that the term was AtE) is playing on my emotion by making(intentionally or unintentionally) me believe she is hurt from my suspicion of her. If I am about to be lynched, and I am innocent, I would try my best. This makes me believe that she gave up as scum, especially after Helz's breakdown/strategy of subsequent days/nights.
Wow alot was written while I was writing that up..
Im really not trying to take away from your earlier contribution but you know me. Look at my mechanical reasoning and just weigh in before you check out.
We 1000% need a unified front on the subject with You and Stealth. Or at least one of you disagree if either of you think its shit so the rest of the players can fall in line accordingly.
Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.
The last post I read was 385
Given that you are into mechanics.
Give me the calculations considering that scum can kill at night and redirect a target.
Last night two things could have happened.
1) Scum holstered to slow down our PoE process (highly unlikely and it’d require a player with experience to attempt it.
2) The kill was blocked by the priest. (Highly likely if scum is desperate for kills).
What i wanna know is if the blademaster can mechsnically deduce who is the priest through their redirection ability or not.
Tell the truth and you'll lie good.
Actually never mind, i just found out the redirection is once per game and by redirecting the priest onto himself would not help him deduce who is the priest.
Tell the truth and you'll lie good.
I have not asked that. I did confirm they could use that 1 shot ability along with the kill in the same night with 1 team member.
I would be surprised if a witch control mechanic gave feedback or if a priest (basically a commuter) gave feedback.
After looking at it not even the priest is notified of a block so without confirmation I feel like its a safe bet to say that the witch control of the mafia will also not give feedback.
Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.
This is how much im disconnected from the mechanical aspect of this game.
Dont ask me about mechanics, ask me about scummy people.
Olivers was really appeasing towards me and SB, whom be knew were lock cleared to town.
Who else was he appeasing to? Who did he go aggro on? Who does it look like he tried to anti-dpew?
Tell the truth and you'll lie good.
Anyway, given how you comment on how dead this game is, most games have more comments? I am already finding it difficult to read and think about every comment.
Then please trust me and just read my mechanical break down.
Basically the town has 3 lynches. If the scum kills anyone outside of you or Stealth they loose. We can play 'follow the cop' strat with people sheeping you/steath and your RNG is 3/5 with 1 shot hitting the priest giving a mullagan.
Your blind rng guesses most likely win the game at like an 80% chance if people sheep you without you even reading the game. Just follow the deductive mechanical logic.
Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.
Another theory.
@stealbomber16 @Helz do you guys remember the KRC game where i randed mafia with oliverz and Helz?
Well Oliverz discussed with us how he should be posting in the thread, specially after i leashed him because he was TMIng me wolf, he is not a good wolf but he at least is open for coaching.
In this game he looks like he didnt have coaching, he felt like he was on his own, Who fit the criteria of a partner incapable of leashing Oliverz?
Was it Martin? Was it the Newbie? Or was it Mizery.
Luona and Yapyap dont strike me as wolves who would let Olivers run wild.
This theory is a stretch though, relies on speculation snd how Olivers would approach this game after getting scum read early on day 1.
Tell the truth and you'll lie good.
Or just look at it in the morning. Posts 352 and 353.
https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...l=1#post972379
https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...l=1#post972380
People sheep you two scum can not curve the game, you get a super high win chance even with blind RNG and you basically get a 50% shield if priest understands the situation.
Priest also gets NK insulation because a bad kill shot outside of you two means 75% chance the town wins with a priest reveal tomorrow.
Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.
Very valid question.
It does also depend on how much they used their chat. I feel like Oliver really screwed himself with the post flip connection that made zero sense but he should have been able to recover. Instead he never addressed it and went AtE until he was beyond redemption.
We could look at time stamps and question who was not around to give him a small word of advice. I do think that he drove himself into the dirt without someone to rein him in there.
Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.
What happens if one of SB and I die tonight. How does your strat work?
Tell the truth and you'll lie good.
Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.
Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.
Now- 7p 2 conf town, 4 unconf town (1 confirmable pr), 1 scum
Misslynch + 1 dead conf town
5p 1 conf town, 3 unconf town (1 confirmable pr), 1 scum
Misslynch + 1 dead conf town
2 unconf town (1 confirmable Pr), 1 scum
Best case situation for the scum there. Either the priest is the kingmaker or the scum CC's the priest and the other townie is the kingmaker.
Why you have 50% invuln:
Now- 7p 2 conf town, 4 unconf town (1 confirmable pr), 1 scum
Misslynch and 1 unconf town (not pr) dead
5p 2 conf town, 2 unconf town (1 confirmable PR), 1 scum
Priest reveals. Scum CC's and its 1v1 with town having 2 lynches
Priest reveals. Scum does not CC and its 1 uncomf town with 1 scum in a PoE of 2 with 2 lynches
This means scum HAS to either kill in the town block or hit the priest. Shooting outside of the town block and missing means scum looses.
Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.
So forcing the scum to shoot between you and stealth means 50% chance you are invuln and town does not loose a player or scum risks a 75% chance of loosing the game shooting outside.
With a 2p confirmed block and a 5p PoE with 3 town lynches playing follow the cop between you and stealth almost guarantees victory mechanically imo.
Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.
Absolute worst case situation if everything goes wrong we end up in Lylo with a town kingmaker shooting 50/50. And that requires a lot of lucky shots by the scum just to get there.
Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.
There is a piece I am not going to say because it would only coach the scum but its a bit better than that.
I specifically like the idea of playing follow the cop because it wrecks any chance for scum to bend the game in their favor through chat. (True to my name I like to put my opponent in hell and take every small advantage they could use)
Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.
Tell the truth and you'll lie good.
Now- 7p 2 conf town, 4 unconf town (1 confirmable pr), 1 scum
Misslynch + non priest kill
5p 2 conf town, 2 unconf town (1 confirmable PR), 1 scum
Priest reveals- Scum CC's and town has 2 lynches so they both die and town wins
Priest reveals- Scum does not CC and town lynches between a PoE of 2 and town wins
Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.
I would rather leave it there because its just better but its why its a HUGE risk for scum to shoot outside of your town block giving priest a 50% heal chance : )
Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.
Whoever the priest is heal one of SB and I tonight and hope for the best.
We are gonna force scum to clear our PoE if today's lynch is not a hit
Tell the truth and you'll lie good.
Didn't mention but at any stage a lynch on the priest gets a claim and just shifts things, a lynch on the scum who claims priest and the priest CC's = a 1v1 thats solvable until D4. D4 its a 2v1 with a town kingmaker.
Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.
Anyways, I pinged everyone to just give a lynch order. Only Ika responded I believe. Pretty tired tbh.
If you guys set the lynch order with minimal effort its almost a guaranteed win imo. Quite a bit has to go right for the scum player to have a chance. We are currently sitting with 4 votes on Luona.
Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.
My reason yesterday was that Stealthbombers town reads would have a lower chance of being lynched thus painting a nk target for scum. Having lynched Oliver and having gotten a no kill night, that is less important today.
Mizery/Luona > Helz > Yayap
1- neither Mizery nor Luona have responded the my questions and both stand at a coin flip for me.
2- With all the doctor hunting / trying to bait the doctor into claiming today, your skill level and that you are trying to get brownie points with the town voting block = I would never want to leave you to lylo
3- my meta should automactically make no one trust me in lylo.. I may not like it but it's the logical choice.
"raises eyebrow"
I did notice something and it is in towns best interest that I never share it if I'm right. I'm guessing you noticed something different than what I'm referring to.
I work nights... my time for FM is in the morning when I get home. I was on for 7 hours yesterday and no one posted until I was about to log off. Unfortunately, no one seems to be online when I am so I have no one to converse with.
not gonna argue with you - I should always be a policy lynch if there is no cop clear on me. Oh and that is Yayap with only 1 "p"
Now back to my initial queries, Mizery and Luona haven't responded. I don't like lurkers, so since Luona has a train and that I don't care which of the 2 get lynched, might as well start some pressure on Mizery to at least explain his stance on Luona.
-vote Mizery
I've explained myself already, not gonna repeat the same things over and over again. I don't care enough. don't ask me again because you'll get the same answer.
I think luona not bussing oli would be silly. I think that Oli was bussed.
Helz is the exception
I don't feel up to doing more than skimming the messages, sheep guillo on me it will make life easier.
And with my listed PoE? I don't need reasoning on D1 to vote who i want in a PoE i've stated.
I don't think luona and oli are partnered, i said this yesterday.
luona could have been voting martin bc she thought that i would too so honestly I'm pretty impartial this cycle
If you think Oli was bussed, then Ika and I are your top suspects. What do you think of Helz? He did slot into the person you were interested in yesterday.
Do you buy Helz' excuse for him not voting Oliver?