Here is done EV math on a lot of setups if y'all interested:
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php...The_EV_Project
Interesting.
Because, for example, White Flag's EV value is close to 50%. However - the actual win rate for Town is close to 30%:
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php...g_(Open_Setup)
This setup is quite unorthodox though.
Effectively 3 EoD's in 1 day for 2 days - EoD's typically give more info than anything else except flips.
Anti-votes being a thing, town core and reads lists are encouraged to establish earlier than usual.
The top townie is for sure living till Day3 - highly unusual.
Yeah, I do think the mechanics help town.
But we will see I hope.
Idk tbh
If you're interested in setup balancing, this is probably your best source:
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...-%28by-Apoc%29
At the end of the day, mafia require 4 mislynches to win and town requires 3 lynches to win.
Sounds fair to me, the game is decided by the play of the players and with no team needing to feel like the underdog.
Probably this one has a lot about balance too, though more about general setup designing: https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...by-mhsmith0%29
@yzb25
I think these 2 setups show greatly how much players don't care if the EV balance is shifted slightly one way or the other:
https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...rum-Mafia-(9P)
https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...per-Basic-(7P)
They are identical except one has 2 more citizens than the other. But nobody seems to care, because at the end of the day - everyone got a fair chance at winning and everyone got a game.
Somehow, the fact that one setup is easier/harder for either alignment than the other - people seem to not care about it. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Having said that.
The default is:
# mislynches for scum to win = # scum + 1
Which is exactly what you have here.
Last edited by OzyWho; January 7th, 2020 at 07:14 AM.
W.r.t. the white flag odds as well, in my opinion one can explain this heightened mafia winrate with all those calculations being done with the expectation of every player having an equal chance to be lynched.
In practice this expectation isn't met most of the time. Town members are generally easier to lynch, for once because the mafia is organized and knows their own - when there are 3 of them this means 2 more uninformed votes are required to get a mafia member lynched, compared to a town member.
The other reason I see stems from the mafia having no need to push their own opinion with their vote. They have an interest in joining or supporting any train there is as long as it's not aimed at their own. The town on the other hand needs to push their own opinion to have a fair chance, as giving the lynch decision away could potentially lead to it falling in the hands of a player who wants the majority lynched and wins with every lynch decision they willingly take.
Avoiding those two issues would probably require a town mayor who completely handles all decisions entirely on his own or a town that somehow decides all lynches in full unison without getting influenced by any individual opinions, and without allowing that to happen through unorganized votes.
I.e. raw odds overestimate the town's actual odds when the premise is for everyone to act randomly. On top of them also not applying when the town is not acting randomly, with scumslips and whatnot.
Lol
Kenny is right, by the way. Heal votes < doctor, especially since they only last for two days. I could get behind the addition of a Citizen, but not much more, imo. Town should have a success rate that is quite close to 50% (not exactly 50% though, that's asking too much). The healvotes do balance that, though, because if the heals are successful, they buy another mislynch to the town. The setup might be slightly scum-favored as it is right now, but not to the point of being concerning imo. Adding a citizen would probably make it slightly town-favored; at this point, it's up to the Host.
Exactly. We used to do that here too, when we had too many/not enough signs : we just added/removed Citizens to setups at the last second. There is always a margin of error to setup balance, and I'd say yzb's view on 30% chance of winning is quite accurate. 30% odds are pretty borderline and should be avoided, but it's not dramatic. Plus, this setup has a special vote system that hasn't really been tested. If the game turns out to be very wild and strange because of it, the Experimental label might be to consider here, but for now I think it's pretty good like this.
The anti-vote being buffed is a pro-town thing, by the way. That's a good change.
@yzb25 , are you willing to host this game right now, or do you wish to postpone it? It's your turn on the Queue.
There's a big clickable banner on the top of all subsections of the FM section, and it links to this : https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...l=1#post828747. Plenty of lovely threads with guides, guidelines, rules, gameplay tricks, ladder, all of that stuff. You should find most of what you want to have FM-wise in this thread. As for the Host's Guide, here it is! (link)