S-FM 204: Insanity

[ThePaladin]

Do you scumread them or is this just policy?

Policy/IDidntLikeHisPlaysyleFromLastGameIPlayedWithHim

And since he was scum that game, he could be scum again

[secondpassing]

Lol shoulda refreshed page.

[secondpassing]

Unknown, why aren't you on Iced_Monopoly anymore? What changed your mind?

[Unknown1234]

Unknown, why aren't you on Iced_Monopoly anymore? What changed your mind?

Because I haven't been around enough to make a case, and currently I've looked like a joke. It would be wasting everyone's time making a case this late when hardly anyone listens.

[Unknown1234]

Wait to stubborn to accept that other opinions are correct over his own.

[ThePaladin]

Wait to stubborn to accept that other opinions are correct over his own.

I have accepted other opinions and conceding many times before, I don't see where you get this from?

You just have to have good reasoning and show me how my logic is faulty/fallacious.

I don't see any of that so far.

[Unknown1234]

Way too* sorry terrible grammar

I have accepted other opinions and conceding many times before, I don't see where you get this from?

You just have to have good reasoning and show me how my logic is faulty/fallacious.

I don't see any of that so far.

You act like I'm the only one you don't listen to, do you need to argue about everything?

[Unknown1234]

Way too* sorry terrible grammar

[deathworlds]

Day will have a 24 hour extension.

[yzb25]

Sorry for these walls of text, there's just so much to say and reply to in this position heheh =3

We might have to find a way to organize this, or newcomers won't bother to read =(

[yzb25]

This was from last night, I didn't get a chance to post it in the crash:

Fifty percent:

You are either the alignment you recieved or you are not.

50:50 like a coin flip.

EACH player has a 50/50 chance. I even specified EACH I belive. You can have 3 jellbeans that are brown and 7 jellybeans that are read, but if each time I take 1 of each put them in a box and say draw one you ahve a 50:50 chance of getting either.
Till you know for a fact that you have ran out of one colour.

Just because there are two outcomes, does not mean they have an equal chance of occurring. I might get bitten by a snake tomorrow, I might not get bitten by a snake tomorrow. But that doesn't mean the chances of being bitten by a snake are 50/50.

You're not thinking about it correctly. If in a neighbourhood of 100 people 1/100 people get bitten by a snake tomorrow, then it's correct to say a random person has a 1/100 chance of getting bitten. If 2/13 or 3/13 people are actually a different alignment in a game of 13, then that means a randomly selected player has a 2/13 or 3/13 chance of being a different alignment from what they say they are.

Anyone can ask themselves, does it actually sound right that Deathworlds would design this in such a manner that there is a 50/50 chance my rolecard is completely wrong about even my alignment, given that there's a possibility most people will never find out their real role? Wouldn't that cross the line from being a crazy save into a straight up un-fun one?

I'm not sure what you're talking about by emphasizing the "each". You can't even write this off as Paladin being bad with stats - he's referenced permutations and has lots of knowledge about how to twist them. You must be aware that these stats are dogshit. They do not make plausible sense.

I got to l4 for no good reason. Unknown stated there was no reason then with no information suddenly decided my first post on page 1 gave a reason. That was contradictory.

How dare I want to finish a game of checkers. If you think there are undertones in checkers say what they are because I don't see any.


Already explained how math works in the optimal outcome for having 2 cults 13-3-3=7, neither cult knows who the other are. Neither is close to majority.


You are lying I literally just posted.

Unknown did give reasons he disliked your play. Do you deny that too?

And a little more of the "pff psychology in checkers so stupid yzb".

Now you're also repeating yourself, anything to drag this out for another hour I guess.

I am busy writing posts. It's not lying to say "a post doesn't exist" when I have no reasonable way of knowing that post exists. The only one overreading is you when you call me a "liar" for a decent mistake.

Anyway, for the love of god 7-3-3-1 is NOT good for the town.
Cult member:
"Hey guys, cult and occult and sinister non-killing hold a majority, if we all team up, we can win this because cult and occult both win together if they each control 50% of the vote. The witch / agent / executioner / Jester King can prove themselves with relative ease. So let's just lynch off the towns for the remaining days!"
Even if they're not clever enough to organize that IMMEDIATELY, the town still doesn't even hold a majority - they hold a plurality. If you just had 7-3-1 that would look like a BALANCED SETUP, so how does 7-3-3-1 or 7-3-3-2 not look like a SLAUGHTER for town?!

[yzb25]

GYAAAH EGGY! EGGY IS ONLINE

EGGY? ARE YOU THERE?

[Gyrlander]

I'm really fustrated for the Lunatic thing as I don't know if I should trust my gut reads Still, I feel bad about Taekyon. And you fuckers trying to lynch me are just looking for an easy one. Specially ThePaladin, bitch.

[yzb25]

I'm really fustrated for the Lunatic thing as I don't know if I should trust my gut reads Still, I feel bad about Taekyon. And you fuckers trying to lynch me are just looking for an easy one. Specially ThePaladin, bitch.

Tbh, I don't think it's fair to put Kovath and Paladin in the same camp.

Kovath seems genuinely pissed off at how you play. He's not taking the easy route by pushing a one-man policy lynch XD

[Gyrlander]

Tbh, I don't think it's fair to put Kovath and Paladin in the same camp.

Kovath seems genuinely pissed off at how you play. He's not taking the easy route by pushing a one-man policy lynch XD

I've always thought that policy lynches are beneficial to scum.

[ThePaladin]

I've always thought that policy lynches are beneficial to scum.

No...?
Policy lynches are also suppose to get people who are normally scummy so if they rolled scum, we can get them

[Kovath]

I've always thought that policy lynches are beneficial to scum.

Then start trying and playing better on Day 1s and beyond, because if you don't I'll be pushing your PL every single game.

"policy lynches are beneficial to scum": You know what? This is pushing the exact kind of mindset that makes scum play the way you are now, so that the only option to take them out (policy lynch) is discredited (or forcing a shot or something). Policy lynches are not the fault of the rest of town; they are the product of town players who deliberately play badly and further the scum agenda.
You are aware (or have been told) about this, yet you continue to pursue this trolly meta for yourself, one which discredits you as town and forces other players to draw attention to you like this in order to not let a potential scum slip under the radar, rather than actually play in a pro-town fashion. This meta pretty much only benefits you as a scum.

Do you have any kind of explanation beyond "lazy / have fun trolling Mafia games and other players / screw you Kovath" ?

On a different note, you say that being a potential Lunatic makes you not trust your gut reads. I've already explained why Lunatic is a bad argument to not participate or offer reads today. Do you have more details to offer about Taekyon, or anything about any other player, to expand past "gut read"?

[Gyrlander]

Then start trying and playing better on Day 1s and beyond, because if you don't I'll be pushing your PL every single game.

"policy lynches are beneficial to scum": You know what? This is pushing the exact kind of mindset that makes scum play the way you are now, so that the only option to take them out (policy lynch) is discredited (or forcing a shot or something). Policy lynches are not the fault of the rest of town; they are the product of town players who deliberately play badly and further the scum agenda.
You are aware (or have been told) about this, yet you continue to pursue this trolly meta for yourself, one which discredits you as town and forces other players to draw attention to you like this in order to not let a potential scum slip under the radar, rather than actually play in a pro-town fashion. This meta pretty much only benefits you as a scum.

Do you have any kind of explanation beyond "lazy / have fun trolling Mafia games and other players / screw you Kovath" ?

On a different note, you say that being a potential Lunatic makes you not trust your gut reads. I've already explained why Lunatic is a bad argument to not participate or offer reads today. Do you have more details to offer about Taekyon, or anything about any other player, to expand past "gut read"?

My reads are basically gut, so you're probably not going to get more from me.

[Gyrlander]

Why is GF the most voted wagon? He claimed Escort, so we just have to wait him to rb someone and then that person confirms and we know it's legit.

[Kovath]

Why is GF the most voted wagon? He claimed Escort, so we just have to wait him to rb someone and then that person confirms and we know it's legit.

RLVG, TDL, and Taekyon haven't checked back in for a day or two and they left those votes there a long time ago.

[ThePaladin]

Arent there only 2 guaranteed sinisters?
I was doing numbers without assuming any rand are all sininister killings or something

Why are we even talking abiut this strategy if we arent doing it? Just seems like you want to look helpful on something we already decided on

[yzb25]

Arent there only 2 guaranteed sinisters?
I was doing numbers without assuming any rand are all sininister killings or something

Why are we even talking abiut this strategy if we arent doing it? Just seems like you want to look helpful on something we already decided on

It's not about looking helpful :P. It's about making sure people are aware how the only alignment that is certain to benefit from your strategy is the cult.

For the 0.1% who still are not aware, Paladin pushed for a strategy where town did no lynch and no night action for 5 days (excluding asylum staff) so that all the lunatics could know who they are. It was really the only serious thing he did on d1 other than defend himself at all costs.

Though, when faced with the terrifying possbility of yourself being lynched, you'll happily have Gamefreak lynched on d1 (despite a confirmable escort claim) instead of a no-lynch, because at least you survive that way =P.

As you said Gamefreak was scum before, so he COULD be scum now!... wait what?

Anyway, at least have the grit to stick by the bullshit you're churning out to the end, rather than flip-flopping when it benefits you.

[RLVG]

Guy A suggests to improve the nearby road and fix the sewage.
Guy B asks how.
Guy A mentions using dynamite to clear it up.
Guy B agrees.
KABOOM
RLVG loses his internet for a while.

Fuck.

I'm back, derp.

-unvote

[RLVG]

RLVG's Sexy Votecount + Links to vote posts!

Gyrlander (2 [L-5]):
Kovath, ThePaladin

---

ThePaladin (4 [L-3]):
Unknown1234, Eggy, yzb25, Spruance

---

Taekyon (2 [L-5]):
Gyrlander, GameFreak

---

GameFreak (1 [L-5]):
secondpassing

[RLVG]

I think we should No Lynch to be honest.
We actually have shitty cases on lynching anyone, even in policy.

[Kovath]

I think we should No Lynch to be honest.
We actually have shitty cases on lynching anyone, even in policy.

Do you have an independent case for why a no-lynch is superior to a lynch in this game, or is it just the reasoning that you don't want to lynch anyone?

[Iced_Monopoly]

9 hours remain, and its midnight for me. I am okay with a no-lynch today just as much as a lynch. With GF claiming I would prefer to see what transpires rsther than lynching him, so I will be unvoting. I have to be up early, and drop kids at school so I probably wont be on the thread till 15 minutes before day end, essentially leaving me the position of hammer if any train picks up...

-unvote

[TheDarkestLight]

I'm back to my original thought processes.

-unvote

I advocate for a no-lynch today. Tomorrow people should be more keyed into what possible alignment they could be, thus allowing potential reads to be better. From my perspective, reads gathered today that are based on alignment tells are still unreliable.

[Kovath]

I'm back to my original thought processes.

-unvote

I advocate for a no-lynch today. Tomorrow people should be more keyed into what possible alignment they could be, thus allowing potential reads to be better. From my perspective, reads gathered today that are based on alignment tells are still unreliable.

Would you support a PL + some scum motivation?

[TheDarkestLight]

Would you support a PL + some scum motivation?

I've never liked policy lynches. "Oh but these people appear scum and can't be discerned from other scum."

That's what fucking night actions are for. People go out of their fucking way to lynch people that lurk or are scummy throughout numerous games and act like their reads are the only things that matter. They're all complete fucking morons. The tools are there and are perfect for individuals like that.

More often than not you're just lynching town anyways. And sure sometimes they're scum, but that's what said night actions are there to determine.

And scum motivation is too questionable at this stage in the game because people who think they're scum might be town and vice versa. Alignment tells aren't doing it for me today.

[yzb25]

The anti-lynch wave is gaining popularity: "My scumreads might be town with scum rolecards! I don't want to lynch while they don't know their roles!", "My alignment might be wrong! I don't want to play town until I'm sure I'm town!"

For the love of god, WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?!?!

Sheriffs or investigators? This save has executioners, jester kings, lunatic invests and lunatic sheriffs, sheriffs with reversed reads, and investigators with 1/4 success. There are so many things that could mess them up they're nearly completely unreliable. They are a bonus. You cannot depend on them.
Role confirmers? What kind of dream are you living where they actually last long enough to confirm your role? They're being hunted. They are top priority for scum, and spastic Spruance has already revealed himself if he's honest. The reality is most lunatics will never find out what their true role. It's just the reality.

Seriously. When are you going to lynch? When will be the time to lynch? D2 will only give slightly more intel. D3 will only give slightly more intel. Fuck the spoonfeeding. We need to take the intel.

The lynch is not just the method for killing scum. The lynch is progress. It gives us information, encourages reflection, and gives the town a direction.

We are a town of numbers. We likely out-number the scum by 4 to 1 or 5 to 1, at worst. This is far, far higher than the usual 1.5 to 1 in, say, a 9-3-3. Do you get it yet? Towns are supposed to die en masse. This is not a normal mafia game.

And a town that martyrs himself in a lynch is a thousand times more beneficial than a town that gets converted or night killed. A town that dies for a single message to live for the rest of the game is a thousand times more beneficial than a town that gives forgettable "contributions" for 6 days and dies uneventfully.

I would rather you lynched me before you lynched noone. I have chosen to believe I am the town alignment, until informed otherwise. And I will happily be sacrificed if it wakes these miracle-hopers, huddling together in a corner, the fuck up. I want to win, no matter the cost. Don't you?

I'm resuming the lynch on Paladin in a few hours, love me or hate me. Just do something for fucks sake.

[Taekyon]

Hey, sorry I missed a whole day. sc2mafia was down at the worst possible moment for me.
I'll remove my vote on GameFreak since pressure vote isn't needed anymore.

-unvote

I'm not comfortable voting Paladin though mainly because Eggy and Spruance are already voting him.
My gut-feeling tell me to not trust them (For lurking and random voting one of the most active player)
I agree with Paladin's idea of a no lynch today until we gather more information but I also agree with yzb25 that not doing anything for multiple day is bad.
Now are we willing to maybe sacrifice a town to gather information?
Since no role are confirmed, we still have a chance to hit a Sinister with a lynch, even after a Insane claim.
Although the chances are still low...
Not lynching would help each player confirm his own role during the night though. (If they don't get killed by Sinister)
Ending this post with a question for everybody: Who is willing to gamble with a lynch today?

[yzb25]

Hey, sorry I missed a whole day. sc2mafia was down at the worst possible moment for me.
I'll remove my vote on GameFreak since pressure vote isn't needed anymore.

-unvote

I'm not comfortable voting Paladin though mainly because Eggy and Spruance are already voting him.
My gut-feeling tell me to not trust them (For lurking and random voting one of the most active player)
I agree with Paladin's idea of a no lynch today until we gather more information but I also agree with yzb25 that not doing anything for multiple day is bad.
Now are we willing to maybe sacrifice a town to gather information?
Since no role are confirmed, we still have a chance to hit a Sinister with a lynch, even after a Insane claim.
Although the chances are still low...
Not lynching would help each player confirm his own role during the night though. (If they don't get killed by Sinister)
Ending this post with a question for everybody: Who is willing to gamble with a lynch today?

You missed my point slightly. A town lynch is still better than a no lynch. The town has been given numbers, and I'd rather we used them than let the scum use them.

In a typical game, a single night of sheriffs and investigators checking can give us more intel than a town lynch. But that is not the case in Insanity. In Insanity, the intel received from a town lynch gives us more than the sheriffs and investigators and such combined.

God (deathworlds) would not have given us a 72 hour day if he meant for us to go through an existential meltdown and do nothing lol.

[Kovath]

Hey, sorry I missed a whole day. sc2mafia was down at the worst possible moment for me.
I'll remove my vote on GameFreak since pressure vote isn't needed anymore.

-unvote

I'm not comfortable voting Paladin though mainly because Eggy and Spruance are already voting him.
My gut-feeling tell me to not trust them (For lurking and random voting one of the most active player)
I agree with Paladin's idea of a no lynch today until we gather more information but I also agree with yzb25 that not doing anything for multiple day is bad.
Now are we willing to maybe sacrifice a town to gather information?
Since no role are confirmed, we still have a chance to hit a Sinister with a lynch, even after a Insane claim.
Although the chances are still low...
Not lynching would help each player confirm his own role during the night though. (If they don't get killed by Sinister)
Ending this post with a question for everybody: Who is willing to gamble with a lynch today?

Why do Eggy and Spruance have anything to do with Paladin's own scumminess / towniness and role / alignment? There are no scum teams / teammates (esp. on Day 1). The only reason this would have any impact on your read on Paladin would be if you think Eggy and Spruance are Sinister and that there are only two Sinisters.

What does a lynch / no lynch have to do with people's night actions and ability to confirm themselves?

[Taekyon]

What does a lynch / no lynch have to do with people's night actions and ability to confirm themselves?

If no lynch, anybody gets a chance to at least try to discover his real role.

[yzb25]

If no lynch, anybody gets a chance to at least try to discover his real role.

Ah, but we can lynch AND give desperate people that minuscule chance of figuring out their role for sure. :P

This is still not enough to give up an opportunity on using our greatest weapon.

There is only one concrete certainty in a save like this - the vote. Make use of it.

[yzb25]

Ah, but we can lynch AND give desperate people that minuscule chance of figuring out their role for sure. :P

This is still not enough to give up an opportunity on using our greatest weapon.

There is only one concrete certainty in a save like this - the vote. Make use of it.

My nefarious choice of language is making me feel like some kind of megalomaniac! I'm enjoying this now.

Taekyon! Do not shy away from your own power! Grasp it in your hands! Feel it!

Sorry. Really inappropriate for current mood. I'm sorry.

[Spruance]

I think we should at least force Paladin to claim. He has been acting scummy.

[Gyrlander]

New strat: Everyone claim. RIGHT NOW.

[yzb25]

New strat: Everyone claim. RIGHT NOW.

I'm curious. Will you vote on Paladin? Or policy lynch Gyrlander?

Ohwait u are Gyrlander lol scrub.

[yzb25]

New strat: Everyone claim. RIGHT NOW.

I'm mason leader

[Spruance]

I'm mason leader

Or at least you think you are o.O

[RLVG]

I'm mason leader

Found the guy.

[yzb25]

Taekyon, SP had some questioning / susp. on you. Don't you want to respond to it before you leave?

[secondpassing]

Taekyon, SP had some questioning / susp. on you. Don't you want to respond to it before you leave?

CHOO CHOO

[yzb25]

Or at least you think you are o.O

I don't think ML can be lunatic'd, but I never got around to asking. Regardless, I get a gut feeling I'm not a lunatic.

This is part of the reason I've been so concerned about cult, too.

Spoiler : spoiler :

jk, obviously fucking scrub

[Spruance]

I don't think ML can be lunatic'd, but I never got around to asking. Regardless, I get a gut feeling I'm not a lunatic.

This is part of the reason I've been so concerned about cult, too.

Spoiler : spoiler :

jk, obviously fucking scrub

wut a spoiler

[yzb25]

I'm curious. Will you vote on Paladin? Or policy lynch Gyrlander?

Ohwait u are Gyrlander lol scrub.

Anyway, if Kovath is willing to take part, we need one more person.

(Ice monopoly is willing to hammer)

I want to see this lynch happen. This guy has done some fucking SCUMMY shit.

[secondpassing]

Hey, sorry I missed a whole day. sc2mafia was down at the worst possible moment for me.
I'll remove my vote on GameFreak since pressure vote isn't needed anymore.

-unvote

I'm not comfortable voting Paladin though mainly because Eggy and Spruance are already voting him.
My gut-feeling tell me to not trust them (For lurking and random voting one of the most active player)
I agree with Paladin's idea of a no lynch today until we gather more information but I also agree with yzb25 that not doing anything for multiple day is bad.
Now are we willing to maybe sacrifice a town to gather information?
Since no role are confirmed, we still have a chance to hit a Sinister with a lynch, even after a Insane claim.
Although the chances are still low...
Not lynching would help each player confirm his own role during the night though. (If they don't get killed by Sinister)
Ending this post with a question for everybody: Who is willing to gamble with a lynch today?

Taekyon was on when I was last night yet only replied today when other people were on at the same time. That means he only wishes to appear town in front of others and
A: shirking his duty to move town forward
B: hiding what he really is

If you look at the time stamps, I think it is not a coincidence that he has replied during the times when other people were on, yet did not reply after I left. (I replied ~14 hours ago, he replied ~2 hours ago -> near times when other people had posted, roughly 10 minutes in between.)

While I initially did read him as town, I feel he has tried to deceive me, leaving after he felt he has gotten his town credibility (to avoid slipping). I see no real mention of his frustration of not being able to read players. I expected his towniness trend to continue but it did not. Instead he has attacked players opinions and standings post 362 and has advocated a docile town here.
He's also lurked the second 24hrs of this 4xday-day1.

Has he not read the thread? Maybe. Has he definitely not commented on more important things? Yes.

Oddly, everyone has jumped off the GameFreak train (do you all think that his roleclaim is good enough?) -> I actually understand why, again, I just don't agree.
But I wish for a Taekyon lynch today above all else now.

-vote Taekyon

[yzb25]

Taekyon was on when I was last night yet only replied today when other people were on at the same time. That means he only wishes to appear town in front of others and
A: shirking his duty to move town forward
B: hiding what he really is

If you look at the time stamps, I think it is not a coincidence that he has replied during the times when other people were on, yet did not reply after I left. (I replied ~14 hours ago, he replied ~2 hours ago -> near times when other people had posted, roughly 10 minutes in between.)

While I initially did read him as town, I feel he has tried to deceive me, leaving after he felt he has gotten his town credibility (to avoid slipping). I see no real mention of his frustration of not being able to read players. I expected his towniness trend to continue but it did not. Instead he has attacked players opinions and standings post 362 and has advocated a docile town here.
He's also lurked the second 24hrs of this 4xday-day1.

Has he not read the thread? Maybe. Has he definitely not commented on more important things? Yes.

Oddly, everyone has jumped off the GameFreak train (do you all think that his roleclaim is good enough?) -> I actually understand why, again, I just don't agree.
But I wish for a Taekyon lynch today above all else now.

-vote Taekyon

I'd like a response from Taekyon before I took the time thing seriously, and I still obviously prefer a Paladin lynch.

But I'd rather anyone was lynched than a no lynch (except maybe Kovath).

If this shows sufficient support I'm open to join, but right now it looks too small and I don't want to give up on a Paladin lynch. I think Gyrlander is suspicious of Paladin and there's a chance he hops on the Paladin train.

If me, Paladin, Kovath and Gyrlander voted this train it could get through though