S-FM 200: Mafia Wars II

[Sino]

POD + gaslight is likely, not set in stone. We have to review things at that point.



Part of mafia is acknowledging that there is a possibility that you were wrong. Town is uninformed so while we were certain Kovath was scum we couldn't know for sure until the game is over.

Yes, but to me, all the clues point at Fatalis being the last Luciano, except for that n1 no block and POD block, G4 seems fine to me.

[Sino]

I'm not looking to logically guarantee a tailor. I'm looking to guarantee scum is lynched. If we lynch today someone that is a mislynch instead if lynching you and you are scum, we let ourselves lose the game over paranoia that a scum tailor may exist. We only logically guarentee a tailor exists if you flip town



1 - There is no guarantee that a scum tailor even exists, and

2 - There is no guarantee that said tailor tailored Kovath.

I won't let paranoia over a role that isn't confirmed to exist detract from the logical lynch and lose because of it.

I understand that point of view, but if G4 flips scum consort, we'll be back to square one

What are the chances for scum to have a tailor according to you ?

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

Yes, but to me, all the clues point at Fatalis being the last Luciano, except for that n1 no block and POD block, G4 seems fine to me.

Let's assume for a moment the scenario is Fatalis + Kovath and that gaslight is town:

This means it's 5-6 town, 0-1 mole, 1 scum left. I need to review the setup for a few things regarding the mole but either way:

If no mole exists and Kovath was scum it's 6v1

If we mislynch gaslight, then we're down to six. One town dies, most likely you. Were down to 5.

POD or Fatalis is mislynched. Duck dies.

Then its me, POD/Fatalis, and Rurururu left. The other of Fatalis/POD that hasn't been lynched yet is lynched. The game ends in town victory.

Kovath being scum assumes we actually didn't mislynch and we can afford another mislynch on top of gaslight.

If gaslight is scum though and Kovath is town, we can't afford ANY mislynches and lynching POD or Fatalis is foolish today

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

I understand that point of view, but if G4 flips scum consort, we'll be back to square one

What are the chances for scum to have a tailor according to you ?

I couldn't care less what the chances are. We lunch gaslight ans we can lynch both POD and Fatalis if it comes down to it.

We lynch one of them now we could lose today.

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

Who did you target last night Sino?

[Sino]

Who did you target last night Sino?

You

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

If there's a mole, they refrained from doing a night kill

I don't think this is very likely tbh with a doc claim to take out

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

Why would you heal me over Duck? He's confirmed town

[Sino]

Why would you heal me over Duck? He's confirmed town

I figured they'd be more likely to attack you

[Sino]

Let's assume for a moment the scenario is Fatalis + Kovath and that gaslight is town:

This means it's 5-6 town, 0-1 mole, 1 scum left. I need to review the setup for a few things regarding the mole but either way:

If no mole exists and Kovath was scum it's 6v1

If we mislynch gaslight, then we're down to six. One town dies, most likely you. Were down to 5.

POD or Fatalis is mislynched. Duck dies.

Then its me, POD/Fatalis, and Rurururu left. The other of Fatalis/POD that hasn't been lynched yet is lynched. The game ends in town victory.

Kovath being scum assumes we actually didn't mislynch and we can afford another mislynch on top of gaslight.

If gaslight is scum though and Kovath is town, we can't afford ANY mislynches and lynching POD or Fatalis is foolish today

And if both Lucianos are still alive, G4 being one of them, would get the town to 4v1 after his lynch, still allowing for Fatalis' and PoD's lynch

Looks rather good to me, but that means we 100% trust RK and you

[Sino]

And if both Lucianos are still alive, G4 being one of them, would get the town to 4v1 after his lynch, still allowing for Fatalis' and PoD's lynch

Looks rather good to me, but that means we 100% trust RK and you

But at this point, i'm willing to take that risk, i'm convinced the scum team is Kovath/Fatalis

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

The thing is that its so extremely unlikely to have two town Underbosses. One scum is in Kovath + gaslight, one is in POD/Fatalis. That's the most likely scenario.

Two town Underbosses seems too op to me. Two town underbosses + town kidnapper plus town Beguiler + doctor?

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

If a mole does somehow exist:

Voss is unlikely to target me n1 since the plan was for Kovath to use their action on us.

Rurururu was also unlikely to be targeted since they claimed Beguiler.

But like I said a mole would have wanted to attack last night. They are not night immune so they would want to eliminate Luciano and avoid being night killed. Doesn't make much sense to not attack.

If Fatalis is the mole that's actually likely. Most likely mole if there is one is Fatalis or Sino

[Sino]

The thing is that its so extremely unlikely to have two town Underbosses. One scum is in Kovath + gaslight, one is in POD/Fatalis. That's the most likely scenario.

Two town Underbosses seems too op to me. Two town underbosses + town kidnapper plus town Beguiler + doctor?

Indeed, but i'd still like to ask you for your personal opinion about who is the scum team.

And also, please ignore G4's flip, i'm asking you to 100% lynch Fatalis day 5 no matter the flip.

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

Indeed, but i'd still like to ask you for your personal opinion about who is the scum team.

And also, please ignore G4's flip, i'm asking you to 100% lynch Fatalis day 5 no matter the flip.

Fatalis or POD. 100%

[Sino]

Fatalis or POD. 100%

Please start with Fatalis, i don't think the order would matter to you

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

Please start with Fatalis, i don't think the order would matter to you

I don't understand why you are so fixated on one over the other

[Sino]

I don't understand why you are so fixated on one over the other

Because his behavior has been plain scummy.

I have the feeling he defended Kovath so hard because he KNEW Kovath would flip town

[SexyDucK]

Oh my god when I get to my pic im going to tell you why meta doc last night was bad

-vote g4slight

[Sino]

What's your personal opinion on the matter ?

[Sino]

Oh my god when I get to my pic im going to tell you why meta doc last night was bad

-vote g4slight

Can't wait to argue with you again

[Sino]

Also Duck, do you agree with the lynches Banana is suggesting ?

Now G4

Day 5 : Fatalis

Day 6 : PoD

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

Because his behavior has been plain scummy.

I have the feeling he defended Kovath so hard because he KNEW Kovath would flip town

This is a good point that I'll take into consideration

[Sino]

What's your personal opinion on the matter ?

@Borderline Crazy Dealers

@SexyDucK

Please guys

[Sino]

What's your personal opinion on the matter ?

@Borderline Crazy Dealers
@SexyDucK

Please guys

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

@Borderline Crazy Dealers
@SexyDucK

Please guys

Why are you so desperate to push a Fatalis lynch tomorrow way ahead of schedule?

[Sino]

Why are you so desperate to push a Fatalis lynch tomorrow way ahead of schedule?

Because i'm convinced he's the last Luciano, so between PoD and him, i'd rather not waste my time

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

Because i'm convinced he's the last Luciano, so between PoD and him, i'd rather not waste my time

That's great and all, but gaslight is getting lynched today first. So you're desperate but we literally cannot even lynch one of them for days (RL days)

[SexyDucK]

Sino now that the roleblocker will be dead for sure, please for the love of god, no meta heals. If you trust bcd more than me have her post who she wants me to vote and I will, but for the sake of confirmed vs a 1% mole, take the confirmed.

I believe the world is pod/g4slight despite it making little sense from their play.

I don't think the world is fatalis/kovath because it means they have a tailor that has to be fatalis, and he correctly guessed g4slight was a consort over you. If he was wrong they just lose.

I still believe, and always have believed kovath was town, I think his flip was accurate. If he was tailored luciano it means town only had 3 negative roles (dd dd tailor) which is op for town.


The lynch should be g4 then evaluate, most likley going to pod

[Sino]

That's great and all, but gaslight is getting lynched today first. So you're desperate but we literally cannot even lynch one of them for days (RL days)

Yes, i agree with that plan, and i'd like all the other players to also agree with it

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

Yes, i agree with that plan, and i'd like all the other players to also agree with it

I never said the plan was to lynch Fatalis, I said it's POD/Fatalis

Gaslight goes first and nobody is going to disagree with that other than gaslight

[Sino]

Sino now that the roleblocker will be dead for sure, please for the love of god, no meta heals. If you trust bcd more than me have her post who she wants me to vote and I will, but for the sake of confirmed vs a 1% mole, take the confirmed.

I believe the world is pod/g4slight despite it making little sense from their play.

I don't think the world is fatalis/kovath because it means they have a tailor that has to be fatalis, and he correctly guessed g4slight was a consort over you. If he was wrong they just lose.

I still believe, and always have believed kovath was town, I think his flip was accurate. If he was tailored luciano it means town only had 3 negative roles (dd dd tailor) which is op for town.


The lynch should be g4 then evaluate, most likley going to pod

Fatalis guessed G4 because Kovath checked him n1 and told Fatalis about his role

[Sino]

I never said the plan was to lynch Fatalis, I said it's POD/Fatalis

Gaslight goes first and nobody is going to disagree with that other than gaslight

i meant the plan is :

-Lynch Gaslight now

-Lynch Fatalis d5

-Lynch PoD d6

If Duck really wants, he can swap Fatalis' lynch with PoD's but i stand by my beliefs

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

i meant the plan is :

-Lynch Gaslight now

-Lynch Fatalis d5

-Lynch PoD d6

If Duck really wants, he can swap Fatalis' lynch with PoD's but i stand by my beliefs

That is exactly what I said. We aren't agreeing to Fatalis over POD at this time.

[SexyDucK]

Fatalis guessed G4 because Kovath checked him n1 and told Fatalis about his role

wouldnt he have had to tell him in the anonymous chat? I am not sure if that would change anything or change voss's lastwill.

This assumes that our consort actually roleblocked nobody night1

and that town had 7 good roles/3anti town roles, which is too strong IMO.

Why doesn't kovath just hammer unknown, get tailored to underboss red and just play out as a cop and if he gets lynched, the other two underboss claims are fucked.

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

wouldnt he have had to tell him in the anonymous chat? I am not sure if that would change anything or change voss's lastwill.

This assumes that our consort actually roleblocked nobody night1

and that town had 7 good roles/3anti town roles, which is too strong IMO.

Why doesn't kovath just hammer unknown, get tailored to underboss red and just play out as a cop and if he gets lynched, the other two underboss claims are fucked.

Mafia have a chat with each other in addition to the chat with the FBI

This raises a good point - if Kovath was underboss it makes more sense to tailor as red underboss instead of drug dealer

[Sino]

wouldnt he have had to tell him in the anonymous chat? I am not sure if that would change anything or change voss's lastwill.

This assumes that our consort actually roleblocked nobody night1

and that town had 7 good roles/3anti town roles, which is too strong IMO.

Why doesn't kovath just hammer unknown, get tailored to underboss red and just play out as a cop and if he gets lynched, the other two underboss claims are fucked.

Because they chose to have the tailor confirmed as another role over the underboss

And about that PoD/Gaslight world

Both PoD and Gaslight actually confirmed themselves, PoD by knowing Shifty's role and Gaslight by blocking Kovath n2, they both agree about that.

Now, why in the world would scum chose NOT to get any tailor ?

[Sino]

i meant the plan is :

-Lynch Gaslight now

-Lynch Fatalis d5

-Lynch PoD d6

If Duck really wants, he can swap Fatalis' lynch with PoD's but i stand by my beliefs

Back to the main topic, Duck, do you agree with these lynches ?

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

Because they chose to have the tailor confirmed as another role over the underboss

And about that PoD/Gaslight world

Both PoD and Gaslight actually confirmed themselves, PoD by knowing Shifty's role and Gaslight by blocking Kovath n2, they both agree about that.

Now, why in the world would scum chose NOT to get any tailor ?

Because look at what happened to Shifty. You pick tailor and you get gangbanged regardless of reads if an underboss finds you.

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

Back to the main topic, Duck, do you agree with these lynches ?

Pretty sure he already said he wants to lynch POD over Fatalis. Give it a rest mate.

[Sino]

Pretty sure he already said he wants to lynch POD over Fatalis. Give it a rest mate.

Yeah, at this point it would be fine for me, but i'd wish everyone here to agree with the lynches while i'm still alive

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

Yeah, at this point it would be fine for me, but i'd wish everyone here to agree with the lynches while i'm still alive

So lynch gaslight, then POD, then Fatalis. Agree to this plan?

[Sino]

So lynch gaslight, then POD, then Fatalis. Agree to this plan?

Yes, do you want me to vote right now or should we wait a bit before we hammer ?

And i'm 100% dying tonight

[SexyDucK]

Because they chose to have the tailor confirmed as another role over the underboss

And about that PoD/Gaslight world

Both PoD and Gaslight actually confirmed themselves, PoD by knowing Shifty's role and Gaslight by blocking Kovath n2, they both agree about that.

Now, why in the world would scum chose NOT to get any tailor ?

You realize we should be discussing if there is a mole and not waste our times with this right? The only way town can lose at this point is to a mole.

fatalis- could still be a mole
pod - probably luciano
bcd - least likely to be a mole, about 1-3%
sino - has to heal me to tonight, if I die confirms he is a mole, outside of that probably is the least likely to be a mole
RK - .01% chance to be a mole
g4slight - probably luciano


The lynch is going to be g4slight, but in the world where sino is a mole, town just loses

lynched:g4, night kill x2

1 luciano 1 mole, 2 town. - we sleep
rng?

[SexyDucK]

Yes, do you want me to vote right now or should we wait a bit before we hammer ?

And i'm 100% dying tonight

yes, and if you die leave in your lastwill who you think a mole could be. That is all that matters. If there is no mole we have three lynches and should win every time, but who knows.

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

Yes, do you want me to vote right now or should we wait a bit before we hammer ?

And i'm 100% dying tonight

I want to hear from Fatalis and POD first this time.

[SexyDucK]

I want to hear from Fatalis and POD first this time.

what we want to make an informed decision? What has our town come to

[Sino]

Ok, not voting right away then.

About the mole, they should have been able to kill tonight if there was one, so i'm not too worried, Voss had only had one chance to recruit : n1, he could've failed

[Borderline Crazy Dealers]

You realize we should be discussing if there is a mole and not waste our times with this right? The only way town can lose at this point is to a mole.

fatalis- could still be a mole
pod - probably luciano
bcd - least likely to be a mole, about 1-3%
sino - has to heal me to tonight, if I die confirms he is a mole, outside of that probably is the least likely to be a mole
RK - .01% chance to be a mole
g4slight - probably luciano


The lynch is going to be g4slight, but in the world where sino is a mole, town just loses

lynched:g4, night kill x2

1 luciano 1 mole, 2 town. - we sleep
rng?

If Sino is the mole it could be that Fatalis + Kovath were a scum team which is why he is convinced of Fatalis

That or Fatalis + gaslight. Either way he dies, so even if he's the mole he won't stop us from winning.

[SexyDucK]

@Quick I see you in the world of nature thread what are your thoughts here?