M-FM XXVIII Heaven Descends Upon Thee Gamethread

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...l=1#post570024

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

If you have no further arguments please confirm your prayer.

[M-FM William Reed]

but Autheists converts new people and they won't be able to pray as well. the fact we know there are Autheists out there won't kill them! they will spread even if we lynch right .

how are we going to kill these scum people without using night actions?

[M-FM William Reed]

answer this and I will accept

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

The only way we all get sinned is if we all get roleblocked. Roleblocking is an instant-reveal on sinners part starting d3.

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

but Autheists converts new people and they won't be able to pray as well. the fact we know there are Autheists out there won't kill them! they will spread even if we lynch right .

how are we going to kill these scum people without using night actions?

Easy.
The Senior Atheist can't pray from start. We will know him from the pool of 3 who can't pray from start.
Converted Atheists can't pray, god will notice this on the list since by d3 we will have every name assigned to a number. Atheists can only convert for as long as Senior Atheist is alive also.

[M-FM William Reed]

no you didn't understand I guess

Atheist converts someone each night.

in day 3 they are 3. in day 4 which as you said the Aheteisted people are confirmed they can be 4. how on earth are we going to stop them if we continue to pray at that point to force sinners pray as well.

it just don't add up to just sit there and pray

pedit : no read the Atheist role pm. they have a factional conversion.

[M-FM William Reed]

Athiest :

You keep any abilities you previously had.
You may be sent for the factional Athiest conversion.
While under the possession of the Antichrist your abilties change as they would if you were your normal role.
You may not pray

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

Upon converting a Power Role, no Athiest may convert the following night. - Setup

Best possible thing senior atheist can do is get 2 conversions by d3.
Worst possible is he double hits sinners/antichrist factions.

Odds are he will only be able to convert 1 person which we shall know the identity of via prayer list.


Senior Athiest
You have 1 auto vest
At night if you are alive, the Athiests may send a member to Convert someone. Turning them into an Athiest


Theres an if there clearly.

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

In other words if senior atheist is dead then there is no factional conversion that can be done.

That statements is saying that instead of the senior atheist the regular atheist can be sent.
However if the senior atheist is dead, neither can be sent

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

Further Questions?

[M-FM William Reed]

Sorry for all the series of questions. I'm just trying to make sure we covered all the aspects before going with a breaking strategy.

what if sinners don't pray and don't let us to find the Atheist?

oh and what if Antichrist force someone to target someone else ?

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

Sorry for all the series of questions. I'm just trying to make sure we covered all the aspects before going with a breaking strategy.

what if sinners don't pray and don't let us to find the Atheist?

oh and what if Antichrist force someone to target someone else ?

Sinners don't pray= We find sinners too.

Antichrist=Yes, I'm aware of what the antichrist can do, however he would have to do it to the same person every night for it to have an effect on the list. Aka a controlled person is different on the list than an antichrist person. One can claim that they were controlled since they recieved feedback of being sinful at the beginning of the day if thats what their action did to them. (Perma not praying is differentiated by single not praying).

If sinners don't pray, we still find evils except now we also know the sinners and it just decreases the probability that we hit senior atheist on first few lynches.

Based on my current predictions, The average amount of conversions for the atheist faction is .75 per every 2 nights.

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

Prediction is based upon the rules that

1 tpr conversion per every 2 nights.
They can hit sinners or antichrist.
They can hit 2 cits in a row(i'm calling shenagins if this happens)

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

Questions are fine.

The important part is you ask these now and not toward end of the day.
And if a proponnet of the plan gives satisfiable answers that you follow it.

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

God also knows how many people would have sinned and not prayed each night.

By comparing sinning to praying record. God should be able to determine a different between conversion and controlled target as well. I believe.

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

11. Athiest Convertion
12. All other night Actions.
13. Prayer


Based upon the OoO

Converted people will lose their ability to pray that night. So any town who are praying and then get converted will show up as none on god's list.

Whereas controlled people will show up as none and will also add a sin to the list.

[M-FM William Reed]

yes that makes that harder as well. if we don't find the S A from all the candidates soon we will loose so fast. becuase we are giving them free night actions.

I'm not sure. But I have a really bad feeling about this.

let me go grab some coffee and I will go with some possible scenarios to see if everything will go as planned

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

yes that makes that harder as well. if we don't find the S A from all the candidates soon we will loose so fast. becuase we are giving them free night actions.

I'm not sure. But I have a really bad feeling about this.

let me go grab some coffee and I will go with some possible scenarios to see if everything will go as planned

Do failed actions such as a failed conversion still count as sins?

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

We could know a conversion occured by comparing not prayed numbers to sin numbers as I said.
This way we can keep track of the amount of atheists.

Also the antichrist controlling is not a sin, but most actions that he can force people to do are sins.

Every Night Action that sinners can do except praying are sins.

If there is an additonal person who doesn't pray as compared to the sins we know a conversion occured under most circumstances I believe.

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

Senior Atheists need a 51% majority to win. I don't see them ever achieving this following this strategy. Even if they managed to somehow hit citizen converts every night.

It's more likely that the antichrist faction would win before atheists if anything.

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

Let me ask you a question.

Which is better?

Having tpr use their night action which reduces the number of people god can ressurect into?

Guaranteing that we know a list of all scum at the cost of no tpr using night action which allows god to be able to disguise as any town potentially minus a controlled person?

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

If all scum used night actions we would know all scum starting d2.

so let's say 2 town died and 2 cits were converted.

we would be 9v4v3v2

This is getting extrememely lucky on all scum actions part.
At this point we may as well say this.

Antichrist controlls vigi and kills.
Apostate burns town n2.
2 town converted.
2 town killed.

I mean following that logic we are screwed regardless except now we don't know who any of the scum are and can mislynch.

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

Keep in mind scum do not know who each other are.

Scum has about a 25% chance if we are going by raw probability of hitting other scum.

[M-FM William Reed]

lets go with scenario A. everyone want to play with their wincon so I assume all scum hit the right town guys who they need.

1. God
2. Jesus
3. Hidden Christian
4. Hidden Christian
5. Hidden Christian
6. Hidden Christian
7. Hidden Christian
8. Hidden Christian
9. Hidden Christian
10. Hidden Christian
11. Hidden Christian
12. Hidden Christian
13. Hidden Christian
14. Prime Sinner
15. Hidden Sinner
16. Hidden Sinner
17. Hidden Sinner
18. Senior Athiest
19. Antichrist
20. Apostate of Satan

the list god gets tomorrow can be:

1. <- you
2. prayed right
3. <dead becuase of the sinners factional kill>
4. none (atheist) Sinful
5. none (Antichrist)
6. none (Role blocked) Sinful
7. prayed right
8. prayed right
9. prayed right
10. prayed right
11. prayed right
12. prayed right
13. prayed right
14. prayed right
15. none (roleblocker)
16. prayed right
17. none (for more confusion)
18. none
19. none
20. none

now in day 2 he will receive something like this :
1. <- you
2. prayed right
3. <dead becuase of the sinners factional kill>
4. none (atheist) Sinful
5. none (atheist) Sinful
6. Forgiveness
7. <dead becuase of the sinners factional kill>
8. none (Role blocked) Sinful
9. none (Antichrist)
10. prayed right
11. prayed right
12. prayed right
13. prayed right
14. prayed right
15. none (roleblocker)
16. prayed right
17. none (for more confusion)
18. none
19. none
20. none

which we need another night I suppose with your plan.

in day 3 the list will be like :

1. <- you
2. prayed right
3. <dead becuase of the sinners factional kill>
4. none (atheist) Sinful
5. none (atheist) Sinful
6. none (atheist) Sinful
7. <dead becuase of the sinners factional kill>
8. Forgiveness
9. <dead becuase of the sinners factional kill>
10. none (Role blocked) Sinful
11. none (Antichrist)
12. prayed right
13. prayed right
14. prayed right
15. none (roleblocker)
16. prayed right
17. none (for more confusion)
18. none
19. none
20. none

ok now we basically are paralyzed in game without knowing who is Atheist and who is Antichrist. that even get worse with satan around becuase of those mark stuff and ritual. scum can get all over the town by day 5/6

if we assume the probability 1 scum hit the other (which won't effect in most scenarios) which is just pure luck for us , still day 6 is end of the town. I'm not sure who are we going to kill these scums in 3 days.

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

I currently have approximately 1-3hours to answer questions.

Please ask them now if you are online in order to not have this occur at teh end of the day.

[M-FM William Reed]

you say we withhold lynching and doing any night actions till day 3. in day 3 scum have the majority.

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

Give me a second I'm messing around with some settings on computer and it's hard to have that whole post viewable.

[M-FM William Reed]

I mean without knowing. Antichrist can control someone. 3 people are culted and so many people are sinful becuase of Antichrist and sinners. its just so beneficial for scums as its for town.

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

I'm still re-reading but if we are saying worst case scenario and scum suddenly becomes psychic to not hit god, jesus , any other scum.

Town should lose regardless. Notice how many people are not posting. It's not very likely we are going to get a good lynch off even so, and then we will never know any scum with certainty risking more mislynches while we have psychic-scum to face with.

Also God gets a number of people who sinned not a sinful thing next to their number.

I'm still reading your thing.

[M-FM William Reed]

But thats ridiculous

Imagine a town fail to send the prayer thing or loose a night phase . we hit town in lylo just becuase of it. the thing people are mostly inactive means we need to be more careful about this.

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

Worst case=
start
13v4v1v2

d3
8v4v3v2 (without lynching anyone)
8v4v2v1(with lynching most threatenign scum)
6v4v3v2(with double mislynch)

Here's why we don't play the psychic scum card:

All town tprs use action, citzens are rbed
God is shot.

We lost game.

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

Worst case=
start
13v4v1v2

d3
8v4v3v2 (without lynching anyone)
8v4v2v1(with lynching most threatenign scum)
6v4v3v2(with double mislynch)

Here's why we don't play the psychic scum card:

All town tprs use action, citzens are rbed
God is shot.

We lost game.

I mean if we are trying to advoid psychic scum at least mine avoids absolute worse.
And if scum play that well. They probably deserve that win. Now let me finish reading your thing.

[M-FM William Reed]

If we have lurker town we need to be more cautious.

with that plan most of the town players get sinful and god reveals so they can kill god and jesus and thats a win for Antichrist.

if we kill Antichrist and the satan first then Authists will overflow the town.

its a lose - lose situation and the fact we might hit sinners and players who are town but got used by scum to don't pray making it worse

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

1. <- you
2. prayed right
3. <dead becuase of the sinners factional kill>
4. none (atheist) Sinful
5. none (atheist) Sinful
6. Forgiveness
7. <dead becuase of the sinners factional kill>
8. none (Role blocked) Sinful
9. none (Antichrist)
10. prayed right
11. prayed right
12. prayed right
13. prayed right
14. prayed right
15. none (roleblocker)
16. prayed right
17. none (for more confusion)
18. none
19. none
20. none

in day 3 the list will be like :

1. <- you
2. prayed right
3. <dead becuase of the sinners factional kill>
4. none (atheist) Sinful
5. none (atheist) Sinful
6. none (atheist) Sinful
7. <dead becuase of the sinners factional kill>
8. Forgiveness
9. <dead becuase of the sinners factional kill>
10. none (Role blocked) Sinful
11. none (Antichrist)
12. prayed right
13. prayed right
14. prayed right
15. none (roleblocker)
16. prayed right
17. none (for more confusion)
18. none
19. none
20. none

Worst case scenarios are dumb.
I already stated that god can easily die n1. Perhaps god is an idiot and actually is the guy who revealed.

If you want to lynch you can, I said perfer for guaranteed assuming every scum player magically knows excatly how to place night actions right.

I'm just going to point out if scum is this super. They can mislynch a town easily since they only need 4 town to vote for another town before hammering.

8 should have said he was roleblocked. We would know there was a roleblock that happened based on the list and amount of sins. If no one counterclaims, we believe if someoen coutnerclaims we get dichotomy, 50-50 to hit scum.

I also never said that you should pray for forgiveness if roleblocked, I'm thinking not till it whenever you are supposed to pray forgiveness on the list.

If we notice scum suddenly made super awesome amazing plays n1, on d2 we can say that if you are roles ___ ___ or ___ you may perform your night actions such as a vigilante, and/or we can say that we need to lynch today.

Here's my questions

What makes you think that assuming super-scum plays is more likely than us mislynching during d1, during d2, and then forever havign a chance of mislynching for the rest of the game
Over
US not performign night actions.
We can choose whether to lynch or not d1 and and d2
and starting d3 we will know a minimum of 3 scum to lynch?

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

If we have lurker town we need to be more cautious.

with that plan most of the town players get sinful and god reveals so they can kill god and jesus and thats a win for Antichrist.

if we kill Antichrist and the satan first then Authists will overflow the town.

its a lose - lose situation and the fact we might hit sinners and players who are town but got used by scum to don't pray making it worse

Where are you getting that with my plan most town becomes sinful?

Following that plan unless scum suddenly got triple roleblockers and god chose to answer no forgiveness players there should be at least a few non-sinful town.

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

So let me ask you another question?

Are you expect this town (its clearly lurking for host to make the post he did earlier) to lynch the senior atheist one d1 or d2?

Lets be honest here, the scum are probably the more-active players since they won't get policy lynched that way and have already noticed that most of town is lurking.

Your also assuming roles.

Let me put it in another way.

You know how in the setup DW had to change list mechanics since scum would be revealed d2 because of a strategy like this?
Do you think he would've changed it if he thought scum still could easily win that way?
I have literally done the exact same thing except now its starting 1 day later.

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

If the scum can play that optimally then they can play optimally enough for us to not scum read them in the first 2 days.
Especially considering any lynch on d1 is most likely going to hit town. Yes I usually encourage d1 lynches because they do give us information and don't just make d2 be in the same position as we were in d1 except more disadvantageous.
But with this setup it clearly is another story.

Guess what amazing things you can do if you got rbed or did something where you got feedback saying you were sinful.

YOU CAN CLAIM IT!

Therefore telling god not to reveal.
God could even claim sinful to seriously mess with scum.

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

Satisfied or do I need to explain more?

I don't want to over-explain with posts .

[M-FM William Reed]

if we mislynch in 3 continues days thats completly our fault. if we don't try we definitely loose the game becuase we loose the majority and stuff.

worst case scenarios are not dumb. in d4/not 3(?) we know some people didn't pray and we can narrow down the pool for finding Antichrist / Satan and Auteist but the problem is we can't lynch them all in time after that. we just simply can't finish the game before Antichrist killing both god and Jesus or Autheist convert the required minimum.

pedit : now Antichrist , Atheist and roleblocker can make people sinful - 3 in a night.

that means 9 in 3 nights. if they continue this god can't find out who is the one got sinful and requested Forgiveness and who is just doing the plan and requested forgiveness. so if god accept all the forgiveness prayers we can delay that 2 days I guess but that won't work in the long run

pedit : well I know I'm not scum. thats just ridiculous. your suggesting a plan which I assume won't end in a town win and your just saying it has the similar risk of a normal game. so why shouldn't we go with the normal game when that way we out or god and lots of other needed knowledge for scum.

I don't like to go with this plan

[M-FM William Reed]

its like the normal life.

if we just sit there and pray a miracle won't happen!

[M-FM William Reed]

I know your plan will decrease the chance of a mis lynch from day 3 forward but it won't guarantee a town win.

its as informative for scum as its for town.

and it will give sinners a good chance to hide.

it will give Authesits a free space to cult people

and it will help Antichrist to find god and a free space to make people sinful.

[Ra]

M-FM Walter Livingston's soul has been cleansed! (He was replaced out)

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

I know your plan will decrease the chance of a mis lynch from day 3 forward but it won't guarantee a town win.

its as informative for scum as its for town.

and it will give sinners a good chance to hide.

it will give Authesits a free space to cult people

and it will help Antichrist to find god and a free space to make people sinful.

it will give Authesits a free space to cult people
How?

Can we still follow the plan and lynch d1 and d2?
Yes. My personal opinions about what we should do while followign the plan do not equal the core of the plan.

and it will give sinners a good chance to hide?
You mean by not doing actions? thats the only way they can hide.


and it will help Antichrist to find god and a free space to make people sinful.
Do you assume god is never going to reveal otherwise? What does antichrist finding god do, he would have to know how many people are sinful to be able to get that off. If antichrist find and somehow coordinates with the other scum enough to be able to kill god permanently, we will make his life a living hell.

it will give Authesits a free space to cult people
By free i think you mean by not lynching them? We aren't likely to hit them in this lurkfest even if we have super-town here.

If your problem is not lynching then that isn't directly relevant to the plan, it's just my preference. Since I think by not we increase our chances of winning rather than lynching in a lurkfest which is basically equivalent to lynching on probabibility.

The plan is just about finding guaranteed scum, it does not say anything about us lynching d1 or d2 or lack thereof.

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

Am I correct in identifying your concern?

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

Also I'm just going to be the guy who goes and says the replacemed people are probably town.

[Ra]

Also I'm just going to be the guy who goes and says the replacemed people are probably town.

The only people who have been replaced out, requested it.

[M-FM William Reed]

I guess scums are in the lurkers becuase they have conflicted feelings about your plan.

obviously it will scare them a bit , so its natural for them to not contribute in game

I will happily vote a lurker at this point.

peidt : thats kind of more like it. If we lynch and do the plan then we have a possible pool in day 4 with 4 or 5 scums . and we have the chance to lynch scum by then.

I still think we don't have enough time after when the info get public to lynch the scum

and if the recent god claim is true we're just doomed as god won't receive last night info if get killed and disguised.

[M-FM Fred Robinson]

Oh also if antichrist hits the devout role then they can't do anything to them.
antichrist also doesn't make all roles sin.

Priest also can't be converted.

[M-FM William Reed]

god reveal is definitely anti town in all matters anytime in the game.

unless Antichrist is dead first.

we won't be sure about the state of town people , we might loose god and jesus in a ritual or a scum kill and boom! game is over,

pedit : I know those stuff. that helps with probabilities but we're not playing a game of luck. we're playing mafia