S-FM 180 Simple Arsonist

[Frog]

Fair enough. I wanted to counter the point that votes can't be analysed before anyone decides to disregard them entirely.



Of course it's a bad thing to risk a hammer when we're less than three hours into a game. Why is this something that has to be spoon-fed to you? Unless you're advocating random lynches (which I don't fancy doing because that would be dull)

I'm 100% for random lynches. Now I'm 100% for scum defending scum. Defending makes no sense for Town.

[Frog]

I do still disagree with the point but we'll leave it at that.

mind is melding. Noctiz is checker.

[Frog]

I am also just going to throw out there that I believer the checker should never for any reason self check. After thinking it through its just a terrible idea.

But it's the only way I can confirm myself. :'(

[Calix]

I'm 100% for random lynches. Now I'm 100% for scum defending scum. Defending makes no sense for Town.

There's only one scum in the setup. You're either getting confused with the other game or you're reaction-testing me.

Also your argument that we shouldn't defend anyone is toxic. We need to make the most informed decision for the lynch and circlejerking over one point =/= productive.

[Helz]

I was kinda planning on sitting back and watching her for a while but I suppose I will go ahead and drop some Calix Observations.

Post 8- Fishing for how others will scum hunt
Posts 17 and 24- Hyper aware of the douse checkers mechanics
Posts 53 and 70- Defending Sen and RLVG

With another 3 or 4 posts in between that could be bids for town cred. In spite of these factors I am very slightly leaning town although I am not by any means comfortable with the slot.

[Frog]

There's only one scum in the setup. You're either getting confused with the other game or you're reaction-testing me.

Also your argument that we shouldn't defend anyone is toxic. We need to make the most informed decision for the lynch and circlejerking over one point =/= productive.

Yes. My informed decision is you're defending your scummate Sen. There is literally no reason to defend anyone.

[NoctiZ]

mind is melding. Noctiz is checker.

I love it when our minds are melding. It gives me a tingly feeling.

In all seriousness though, I just wanted to make this post to say that I'm going to bed. See ya tomorrow.

[Calix]

I was kinda planning on sitting back and watching her for a while but I suppose I will go ahead and drop some Calix Observations.

Post 8- Fishing for how others will scum hunt
Posts 17 and 24- Hyper aware of the douse checkers mechanics
Posts 53 and 70- Defending Sen and RLVG

With another 3 or 4 posts in between that could be bids for town cred. In spite of these factors I am very slightly leaning town although I am not by any means comfortable with the slot.

I'm not seeing how knowing about the setup can be considered a tell in any sense, considering that a) it's a very short, simple setup and b) attention to setups isn't alignment-indicative.

If you have identified 3 - possibly 4 - things you consider scummy, what makes you conclude that I am a 'slight town' lean?

[Frog]

I was kinda planning on sitting back and watching her for a while but I suppose I will go ahead and drop some Calix Observations.

Post 8- Fishing for how others will scum hunt
Posts 17 and 24- Hyper aware of the douse checkers mechanics
Posts 53 and 70- Defending Sen and RLVG

With another 3 or 4 posts in between that could be bids for town cred. In spite of these factors I am very slightly leaning town although I am not by any means comfortable with the slot.

Yeah, if you're going to get real ;-)

I'm not presenting any analysis today. It's just too risky. especially on town reads. But even more so on WHY I find someone scummy.

But because the cat is out of the bag, posts 53 and 70 concern me most.

[Calix]

Yeah, if you're going to get real ;-)

I'm not presenting any analysis today. It's just too risky. especially on town reads. But even more so on WHY I find someone scummy.

But because the cat is out of the bag, posts 53 and 70 concern me most.

So you decided to use flawed logic to vote me, refuse to explain the vote and then wait until another player posted to sheep their reasoning? You do realise that town doesn't have a lot of time to waste on giving no analysis, right? I notice that you're not criticising anyone else for posting analysis and that you have no problem with revealing your thoughts when someone else supposedly says them.

I find your justification of this in line with a self-conscious scum.

-vote Frog

[Helz]

I'm not seeing how knowing about the setup can be considered a tell in any sense, considering that a) it's a very short, simple setup and b) attention to setups isn't alignment-indicative.

If you have identified 3 - possibly 4 - things you consider scummy, what makes you conclude that I am a 'slight town' lean?

I believe you incorrectly read my post. And I am not willing to explain yet. But I do like your most recent post : )

Yeah, if you're going to get real ;-)

I'm not presenting any analysis today. It's just too risky. especially on town reads. But even more so on WHY I find someone scummy.

But because the cat is out of the bag, posts 53 and 70 concern me most.

Agreed. I should probably downshift a little bit. Im just pushing to break the early D1 bullshit in favor of creating that content that we can really sink our teeth into.

[Calix]

On that note, I am going to sleep

[Frog]

So you decided to use flawed logic to vote me, refuse to explain the vote and then wait until another player posted to sheep their reasoning? You do realise that town doesn't have a lot of time to waste on giving no analysis, right? I notice that you're not criticising anyone else for posting analysis and that you have no problem with revealing your thoughts when someone else supposedly says them.

I find your justification of this in line with a self-conscious scum.

-vote Frog

Lol, so you haven't doused me tonight. Hooray!

[Helz]

Before you go would it be possible for you to reference a game you played that you had a scum role in?

[Calix]

Before you go would it be possible for you to reference a game you played that you had a scum role in?

RLVG's Happy Fluffy Times, but I didn't technically know I was scum until Day 4, so I don't think it counts. You can enjoy watching me flail as I evade being lynched for a few days though.

Also there's POD's Mystery Box III but that was a lurkfest.

tl;dr: I have no reliable scum meta yet.

[Frog]

Players:
Helz
Frog
Calix
TheDarkestLight
RLVG
Sen
NoctiZ

Frog (2 [L-2]):
Sen, Calix

Calix (2 [L-2]):
RLVG, Frog

Sen (1 [L-3]):
Helz

RLVG (1 [L-3]):
TheDarkestLight

Noctiz, plop a vote

[RLVG]

Interesting playerlist, but not the right roles to make a living conversation about.
Everyone are equal, other than a Checker who may or may not hit jackpot.

[Frog]

Interesting playerlist, but not the right roles to make a living conversation about.
Everyone are equal, other than a Checker who may or may not hit jackpot.

Talks about jackpot, suggesting RLVG is a gambler.

Talks about checkers, suggesting RLVG hates chess.

Arsonists typically hate chess and love gambling.

Therefore, RLVG maaaay be the arsonist.

[RLVG]

Talks about jackpot, suggesting RLVG is a gambler.

Talks about checkers, suggesting RLVG hates chess.

Arsonists typically hate chess and love gambling.

Therefore, RLVG maaaay be the arsonist.

Talks about jackpot, suggesting RLVG is a gambler.
Yes, I buy one or two lottery scratchcards per month.

Talks about checkers, suggesting RLVG hates chess.
I love chess but I think Checkers are stale.

Arsonists typically hate chess and love gambling.
This is a true patriot statement.

Therefore, RLVG maaaay be the arsonist.
Wrong, I'm a Mass Bus Driver.

[RLVG]

Talks about RLVG, suggesting that Frog buddies RLVG.

Has posted a vote count, suggesting that Frog stares constantly on the vote counter.

Frog is rich and hawt, suggesting that Frog can buy his role.

Therefore, Frog may be the Arsonist.

[Frog]

RLVG just had surgery.

The field of R&D in flamethrowers is ever expanding.

Talk to type is a means of typing without hands.

The science exists.
He has the means.
RLVG may have replaced his arms with flanethrowers.
Therefore RLVG may be the arsonist.

[Helz]

Just to stir the pot a bit..

-vote Noctiz

Tbh I'm not 100% willing to go with Sen for a D1 lynch. The Arsonist would know that they everyone else won't be notified of dousings. I'm not sure if he would make such a slip.

Speaking from the arsonists perspective, defending players, only focused on strategy discussion outside of this post with some soft town cred bids. I see no effort to discover others alignments and I see a blend of defensive tones and justification in his posts.

Chat is all quiet and shit. Cept for RLVG's flamethrower arms. I am still willing to push on him for the end day if people do not make up their minds. Sen could also be a decent target. Not so much just for the slip but also because of his uncooperative tone. Its really early and I don't know the player but I doubt his interactions will provide much value given his early plays even if he is town.

My vote sits on Noctiz for now.

[Helz]

I will also push that we have 3 hours 40 mins left in the day. Players should consider shifting their votes away from pressure targets and onto lynch targets if they do not think they will be available for days end. As previously stated I support lynching. As of D1 I will not be willing to lynch either Calix or Frog.

I will also point out for our checker that N0 Arson did not have a random target. He got to pick who gets doused. Accepting the fact pretty much everyone in this game knows etch other this provides some WIFOM for a good N1 check.

[Sen]

I will also push that we have 3 hours 40 mins left in the day.

hory fuk. I thought it lasted 48 hours.
I like my current vote, but am willing to lynch anyone, because seriously.

[Helz]

I'm also going to suggest a strategy because there is no way for the arson to counter it.

If checker gets good results he should reveal. This will semi-confirm 2 players. In a game this small that is a massive advantage.
Yes- The arson could fake claim. But then the checker could CC and we have once again cut the targets down considerably.
In 1v2 the checker should claim regardless of results. This creates 2 situations. 1 in which the arson CC's and the town winning has shifted from a 33% chance to a 50% chance. The other is if the arson does not CC. Once again this still increases the chance of lynching the arson because then the checker is the pivot vote as opposed to in the earlier situation where the player who did not claim checker would be.

All of these moves are good for the town. None of them can be countered by the arson. I figured this was worth presenting early on for players to keep in mind as the game progressed.

[Sen]

Sen could also be a decent target. Not so much just for the slip but also because of his uncooperative tone.

I don't need to pretend to do day 1 reads, to want to have some particular individuals alive or to play along with arbitrary strategies just so people believe I'm town.

Trying to justify a lynch in this setup on d1 with something other than policy reasons is dumb and points out at people trying to justify their actions ins a setup which doesn't require it. Saying "let's lynch Sen at random" would've been a more compelling argument.

[Sen]

Agree with the Checker strategy.

[Helz]

I don't need to pretend to do day 1 reads, to want to have some particular individuals alive or to play along with arbitrary strategies just so people believe I'm town.

Trying to justify a lynch in this setup on d1 with something other than policy reasons is dumb and points out at people trying to justify their actions ins a setup which doesn't require it. Saying "let's lynch Sen at random" would've been a more compelling argument.

I have some very real tells at this point. They are not "Hard reads" or anything but we can do much better than just suggesting a policy lynch. After the game remind me and I will dump some of those notes. D1 reads are very possible.

[RLVG]

-vote Frog

[Sen]

Not gonna discuss that, because in the end it's gonna be your view on day 1 reads vs mine, which is a moot argument during a game.

You say you aren't lynching Frog, so unless someone pops in the 3~ hours we have and hammers, I will switch my vote towards a different person. I don't want a no-lynch.

[Helz]

Well a point you can agree with is that we will extremely likely have no more information tomorrow than we have today. If you do not feel its possible to make informed decisions today then there is no reason to think you will be able to on any other day. Best case scenario- Checker reveals himself and 1 other to not be the arson. That only improves the chances across a random action. It does nothing to change the model of decision that will have to be made from what it is right now (Even in a 2v1 situation).

Also Frog is Currently at L1. It would be great if we didnt just slap on a vote and instead actually gave reasoning with it so we could work with something tomorrow.

[Frog]

Sup.

I'll claim.

I'm the jester.

If you mislynch today the odds severely suck thereafter. Just saying.

;-)

[Frog]

My reasoning for Calix is pretty straight forward.

There should be no reason AT ALL for defending anyone if you are Town.

I was hoping you'd give it some time to think through why an Arsonist would defend someone.

[NoctiZ]

Sup, I'm back.

I'll agree on the Frog lynch on the basis that his douser strategy is flawed and disadvantageous to the town. Now that I'm more awake than yesterday night I can see why it is.

My reasoning for Calix is pretty straight forward.

There should be no reason AT ALL for defending anyone if you are Town.

I was hoping you'd give it some time to think through why an Arsonist would defend someone.

So why aren't you thinking I'm scummy for defending Sen?

[Frog]

-vote Frog

So he can get salty in two games at the same time.

IDGAF - I'm out.

[Frog]

Just so you all know, I was actually looking forward to this game. I thought through strategy, and when it was best to disclose strategies. I don't want to play with a gamethrower. Lynch me. I'm Town.

[Helz]

My reasoning for Calix is pretty straight forward.

There should be no reason AT ALL for defending anyone if you are Town.

I was hoping you'd give it some time to think through why an Arsonist would defend someone.

I can explain my reason for not voting her if needed. But I would rather not because then I can't run the same sneakiness again.

I disagree with the frog lynch completely. He has been poking players and building information more than anyone else in the game. Those interactions are useful in many ways while in contrast most of the player base has not been a third as productive.

[Helz]

I will also once again push that real reasoning should be given with the lynch vote. That is extremely important for us to work with in future days. We will fail as a town if we allow lynches to go through without attached reasoning.

[NoctiZ]

I will also once again push that real reasoning should be given with the lynch vote. That is extremely important for us to work with in future days. We will fail as a town if we allow lynches to go through without attached reasoning.

Well, since I am willing to vote Frog I will also move away from the mantra of not discussing Arsonist strategy.

Reason why I'm willing to vote him is because his strategy of making everyone claim can reveal the douse checker to the Arsonist while we will only know after a successful burning of the DC whose claims were real and whose weren't. It'd give the Arsonist an opportunity to deduce the douse checker while we're all tapping in the dark until he's dead already.

[Sen]

If you do not feel its possible to make informed decisions today then there is no reason to think you will be able to on any other day.

False. I just do poorly with small data samples which at this point would mean nothing other than confirmation bias for me. ie; your initial vote on me could be taken as paranoid Town trying to see scummy stuff, like bad falling for an obvious shitpost, like scum trying to get a mislynch based on a weak argumen, etc.
The more posts (and time), the easier it is for me to do my job.

Also Frog is Currently at L1. It would be great if we didnt just slap on a vote and instead actually gave reasoning with it so we could work with something tomorrow.

If you're looking for a "OMG, Frog is scum!" reason, you won't find it. It's pretty much arbitrary for me at this point, and I could probably give equally subjective reasons for voting literally anybody right now.

He put me at L-1 during a stage where anyone could've thrown a hammer by accident, then moved away from me with an equally weak reason, and then there's the whole "not discuss strategy". Any discussion is good. Promoting silence disarms people who do analysis, and in this setup, that's pretty much all we have.

[Helz]

Just because I think a lot of players are missing it.

The reason RVS is used in games where no other information is given is it creates a basis to analyze behavior. Votes build and trains form. From those trains stronger trains are created with reasoning. And that reasoning is debated to form even more perspectives. From all of this reasoning we gain information on players and become more capable of making informed decisions. Refusal to give reasoning is a scum play. It cripples the town into a model of random voting an crossing their fingers in hopes of a lucky night peek. The towns weapon is their vote and their voice. If we fail to use these tools appropriately we may as well make the days 30 mins long, accept the odds of successfully lynching the arson based purely on chance, and not even call it a game at that point.

Every player in this game should acknowledge this fact and support this basic model for scum hunting if they are town. I know this is out of this sites norm for a game of this type but it does not mean we can not rise to the level of play required to do things right.

I say this because I believe we are failing to accomplish these simple principals as a whole. If we do not change we can not take pride in wining as that it will be attributed to fallacy and random chance over rational arguments.

[Helz]

False. I just do poorly with small data samples which at this point would mean nothing other than confirmation bias for me. ie; your initial vote on me could be taken as paranoid Town trying to see scummy stuff, like bad falling for an obvious shitpost, like scum trying to get a mislynch based on a weak argumen, etc.

Read my next post and you should understand what I was doing there. And I did recognize potential for a lynchbait play in that post. Its this sites favorite tool by far. I do not think I have ever played a game where someone did not pull it.

[Frog]

Helz, don't even try reasoning. Sen does not play to his win conditions. He's voting me as a personal vendetta. Literally nothing you say can reason with a gamethrowing troll. He's an asshole who is taking one game personally and is throwing bias into this game. I won't stand for it, and I won't play in this game. I could have done considerably more today, but I simply refuse to waste my time with this gamthrowing pile of sticks. You british cigarette.

[Toadette]

Helz, don't even try reasoning. Sen does not play to his win conditions. He's voting me as a personal vendetta. Literally nothing you say can reason with a gamethrowing troll. He's an asshole who is taking one game personally and is throwing bias into this game. I won't stand for it, and I won't play in this game. I could have done considerably more today, but I simply refuse to waste my time with this gamthrowing pile of sticks. You british cigarette.

Emotions are running high and this is a warning to ALL players that I won't tolerate personal attacks of this nature this game.

Rules:
No excessive personal attacks. Violators will be warned through PM, and replaced or killed if they continue. If you feel like someone has violated this rule, do not discuss it on the thread but rather PM me and I will decide the course of action to take.

[Sen]

And there go the personal insults.

[Sen]

Helz, will you hammer if no other lynch is viable by the deadline?

[Frog]

And there go the personal insults.

It's not an insult if it's true.

I'm alerting everyone in this game they're wasitng their time playing with you. You're a gamethrowing asshole who doesn't play to your win con. I'm done with you.

[Helz]

Helz, will you hammer if no other lynch is viable by the deadline?

I am really not sure. I have no confidence in the lynch. Really stretching my previous actions I would probably end up doing it under the justification that you and him will not get along and it will create issues in discussion for the rest of the game if one of you does not go. But all I can say is I don't care for it.

[Sen]

I am really not sure. I have no confidence in the lynch. Really stretching my previous actions I would probably end up doing it under the justification that you and him will not get along and it will create issues in discussion for the rest of the game if one of you does not go. But all I can say is I don't care for it.

What's your view on no-lynch in this setup?
As I see it, any lynch is better than a no-lynch, simply due to it increasing the chance of the Checker having a doused result in the night, and thus increasing the odds during the next day as you explained.

[Frog]

I'm not playing until Sen is replaced out. I will not play with a gamethrower. Toadette, replace Sen out or replace me out.