S-FM 157: gLiTCh_44

[DarknessB]

Sooooooooooooooooo

Let me get this straight
The idea is, you don't vote people who you think are town?

LOL, yup. And even that backfires as well with really skilled / deceptive players. There's a reason Helz and to a lesser extent Frog were leading the Town for most of Fire's game. The most skilled players can give off the biggest Town reads. If we didn't end up having a bad feeling about both of them despite all their seemingly pro-Town posts, it would have been a scum steamroll game.

[ika]

Sooooooooooooooooo

Let me get this straight
The idea is, you don't vote people who you think are town?

yes, its called POE lynching and town hunting.

its an exelent stratgy when you know how to use it proper

[SuperJack]

yes, its called POE lynching and town hunting.

its an exelent stratgy when you know how to use it proper

...

[ika]

...

look if you dont like it you can say such. there is no real right way to play

[Toadette]

look if you dont like it you can say such. there is no real right way to play

Except we can all agree that forming a townbloc with you in it this game was the WRONG way to play

[DarknessB]

yes, its called POE lynching and town hunting.

its an exelent stratgy when you know how to use it proper

Can't that be said of most things though? Pressuring can be a great strategy too, or it can make you look overeager to lynch and therefore scummish. Bussing can be a great strategy, but sometimes the Town sees right through it if you're too transparent about it, and then you're still linked to the person you were pushing. Being overly pro-Town can be a good strategy as scum too, but sometimes it backfires, etc. All strategies are situational in nature.

[ika]

Can't that be said of most things though? Pressuring can be a great strategy too, or it can make you look overeager to lynch and therefore scummish. Bussing can be a great strategy, but sometimes the Town sees right through it if you're too transparent about it, and then you're still linked to the person you were pushing. Being overly pro-Town can be a good strategy as scum too, but sometimes it backfires, etc. All strategies are situational in nature.

right, i never said town hunting and POE lynch is the end all play.

i mean the techanical optimal play would to never talk and jsut random lynch and hope for best

[Toadette]

right, i never said town hunting and POE lynch is the end all play.

i mean the techanical optimal play would to never talk and jsut random lynch and hope for best

That's boring and unfun.

[Frog]

That's boring and unfun.

It's also a horrible strategy as it's mathematically improbable in almost every setup.

Who here completed 8th grade math? (I realize this varies country to country)

Let's assume this setup for example.

Ika suggests a 4 player block.

14 players, 5 are scum/non town.

If you know yourself to be town (say D1 mayor reveal to make it simpler), you are excluded from this pool.

In a pool of 13 players, 5 are scum. If 3 players are picked at random what is the probability they are all scum?

There are C(5,3) ways to pick a group of 3 scum out of 5.

There are C(13,3) ways to pick any group of 3 players out of 13.

So the probability is [C(5,3)] / [C(13,3)] = [(120/12)] / [(6227020800/21772800)] = 10/286
or 1 in 28.6 chances that a towny would pick 3 scum at random

What is the probability of at least 1 being scum?
We find the complement event and subtract from 1.

The complement event of at least one scum is having no scum, which means all town.

There are C(8,3) ways to pick a group of 3 towns out of the 8.

There are C(13,3) ways to pick any group of 2 players out of the 9.

So the probability is [C(8,3)] / [C(13,3)] = [(40320/720)] / [(6227020800/21772800)] = 15/286
or 1 in 5+ chances that a towny would pick 3 townies at random.

So without doing the rest... the odds are 4+/5 that one scum is in the block, with a pretty good chance of picking 2 scums in your 4 person block.

For this particular setup, it would be mathematically stupid to POE. Not to mention boring and unfun.

There's a place for POE, this is NOT the setup for it AT ALL.

[DarknessB]

It's also a horrible strategy as it's mathematically improbable in almost every setup.

Who here completed 8th grade math? (I realize this varies country to country)

Let's assume this setup for example.

Ika suggests a 4 player block.

14 players, 5 are scum/non town.

If you know yourself to be town (say D1 mayor reveal to make it simpler), you are excluded from this pool.

In a pool of 13 players, 5 are scum. If 3 players are picked at random what is the probability they are all scum?

There are C(5,3) ways to pick a group of 3 scum out of 5.

There are C(13,3) ways to pick any group of 3 players out of 13.

So the probability is [C(5,3)] / [C(13,3)] = [(120/12)] / [(6227020800/21772800)] = 10/286
or 1 in 28.6 chances that a towny would pick 3 scum at random

What is the probability of at least 1 being scum?
We find the complement event and subtract from 1.

The complement event of at least one scum is having no scum, which means all town.

There are C(8,3) ways to pick a group of 3 towns out of the 8.

There are C(13,3) ways to pick any group of 2 players out of the 9.

So the probability is [C(8,3)] / [C(13,3)] = [(40320/720)] / [(6227020800/21772800)] = 15/286
or 1 in 5+ chances that a towny would pick 3 townies at random.

So without doing the rest... the odds are 4+/5 that one scum is in the block, with a pretty good chance of picking 2 scums in your 4 person block.

For this particular setup, it would be mathematically stupid to POE. Not to mention boring and unfun.

There's a place for POE, this is NOT the setup for it AT ALL.

Well said re: the statistics of the plan. Also, even if you assume that you have slightly better odds because how you read people, that's a dangerous game as well. If we had done a Town block in Fire's game, it would have probably been the Gang that you put together, which ended up having 2 scum in it, lol. Also, we would have gone after Stealth among other people who ended up being Town despite his play, and Helz would have almost certainly discouraged going after PoD. Reads tend to evolve pretty quick, especially in carefully played games, so forcing yourself into a block with the players who seem like Town seems pretty dangerous in a lot of cases.

[Frog]

Well said re: the statistics of the plan. Also, even if you assume that you have slightly better odds because how you read people, that's a dangerous game as well. If we had done a town block in Fire's game, it would have been the Gang that you put together, which ended up having 2 scum in it, lol. Reads tend to evolve pretty quick, especially in carefully played games, so forcing yourself into a block seems pretty dangerous in a lot of cases.

There are some setups that can work, but it has to be independent of reads to ensure the random nature. The smaller the block the better, etc. Some ways to make it efficient. E.g. there's a way to employ POE in Toadette's game effectively.

[DarknessB]

There are some setups that can work, but it has to be independent of reads to ensure the random nature. The smaller the block the better, etc. Some ways to make it efficient. E.g. there's a way to employ POE in Toadette's game effectively.

That makes sense to me -- the statistical odds get better of an all Town block the less people in the group (i.e. 3 is obviously a lot easier than 4) and the randomness prevents any faulty reads influencing participation in the block or not.

[TheDarkestLight]

I still find it sad the host thinks SuperJack contributed to the DarknessB lynch at all.

[SuperJack]

I still find it sad the host thinks SuperJack contributed to the DarknessB lynch at all.

I see it more of I didn't get him lynched, but I brought him out and got a big target painted on him.

[DarknessB]

I see it more of I didn't get him lynched, but TDL brought him out and got a big target painted on him.

FTFY

[TheDarkestLight]

I see it more of I didn't get him lynched, but I brought him out and got a big target painted on him.

Not particularly.

[ika]

im waiting for the part of people realizeing i never said its for every setup nor is it an abloute nor should it be an end all day 1

its much better late game as well

like seriouly i never said any of that frog so dont put word in my mouth thats not true

[Stealthbomber16]

Allow me to rephrase:

I did not assign roles to certain people. If someone new like Toadette or half of the people who signed up for 158, I'd reroll the hacker team and redesign the setup. I expected Darkness to be able to handle it.

[Frog]

I still find it sad the host thinks SuperJack contributed to the DarknessB lynch at all.

I know the feels man, you play to win. I avoid games where I believe the host is biased against me. But I don't think host was biased against you.

I'm speculating here. I think the host spent time creating the setup and recognized the odds against SJ's role. Considering Mafia were also weighted to win, this was an additionally difficult task.

In the end, S-FMs are a place to learn, try new play styles, and test new mechanics. It's about experimentation and fun. I feel like the S-FM seasonal tournament goes against the aforementioned objectives of S-FMs.

I'm feel shitty you're sad about the post-game, but the game itself seemed very active and fun.

Bring your A-game to M-FMs and FMs. :-)

[DarknessB]

Allow me to rephrase:

I did not assign roles to certain people. If someone new like Toadette or half of the people who signed up for 158, I'd reroll the hacker team and redesign the setup. I expected Darkness to be able to handle it.

LOL, I would have been fine but for being unlucky enough to lynch SuperJack and then TDL checking me and trying to get me to lie about my role. To be fair, my Hacker team was a bit on the inactive side -- it would have been nice if at least one of them stepped up a little more during day chat. And then of course the unfortunate timing of being away for a calendar (not game) day combined with the hosting snafu. It was a comedy of errors, lol.

[Frog]

im waiting for the part of people realizeing i never said its for every setup nor is it an abloute nor should it be an end all day 1

its much better late game as well

like seriouly i never said any of that frog so dont put word in my mouth thats not true

I hope you didn't take my criticism of your strategy personally.

I thought it over and developed a simple proof that invalidates that strategy for this setup.

Please feel free to play around with the numbers for future setups if you want to figure out whether or not it's a statistically viable strategy.

[DarknessB]

I know the feels man, you play to win. I avoid games where I believe the host is biased against me. But I don't think host was biased against you.

I'm speculating here. I think the host spent time creating the setup and recognized the odds against SJ's role. Considering Mafia were also weighted to win, this was an additionally difficult task.

In the end, S-FMs are a place to learn, try new play styles, and test new mechanics. It's about experimentation and fun. I feel like the S-FM seasonal tournament goes against the aforementioned objectives of S-FMs.

I'm feel shitty you're sad about the post-game, but the game itself seemed very active and fun.

Bring your A-game to M-FMs and FMs. :-)

To be fair, the S-FM ladder is more about bragging rights than prizes, which aren't particularly notable in most cases (no offense, Orpz ).

In terms of the game, I felt like it was kind of a Town steamroll given bad luck by the scum roles (SJ being lynched Day 1), the unfortunate hosting error, a somewhat weaker scum team in terms of players / their activity levels, and some unbalanced mechanics for the death chat (SJ got to be in both chats, there was an Oracle-type role as well, and the Oracle role would get the Hacker chat if she died -- WTF?). In any event, we can all learn from any FM, whether win, lose, or host.

[Stealthbomber16]

The way I honestly expected this role to win was to act extremely jesterish for the corrupt journalist to recruit.

[DarknessB]

The way I honestly expected this role to win was to act extremely jesterish for the corrupt journalist to recruit.

Yeah, that's why I had previous queued up sending an article to MattZed on Night 1 -- his normal playstyle is a bit Jesterish.

[MattZed]

Yeah, that's why I had previous queued up sending an article to MattZed on Night 1 -- his normal playstyle is a bit Jesterish.

Oh if I were Corrupted Dataware we would have made a great team. =D

[Orpz]

Ladder is up to date as of S-FM 157.
https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showth...98-S-FM-Ladder

Even though player votes were at a tie, I gave the MVP to Superjack for this game because the host broke the tie in the game end post.