S-FM 352: ★ Silent Night 2 ★

[Dark Magician]

maybe Dark Magician and Marshmallow Marshall are both scum? DM seems like he wants to go after you, ikarus

I made it clear I can go either way here.

[Dark Magician]

DK, elaborate on you “shading me for info”.
What exactly did you want to gain from calling the banana’s post fake?

[Dark Magician]

@Dark Magician You need to be doing a lot more to convince us that you're town, because right now I'm pretty much convinced that you're Mafia. So instead of pre-flipping Marshall town and trying to get a third guy voted, I need you to analyze Marshall and who he could be scum partners with.

Marshall, you are not in any better a position. From your point of view (assuming town), you know DM is scum so give us your insight on who his partners are before either of you kick the bucket.

I think were gonna have to kill both of you before we consider killing ikarus. And if it is Ikarus, then I guess we're fucked

I ain’t pre-flipping at all.

I just know mechanically one of them HAS to be a wolf from my POV.

[Dark Magician]

I TR both Wiisp and Stellaria based on SOD3 alone. Their overall standing in my read is a secret.

I’m not there on Wisp but I agree with Stellaria.

[Dark Magician]

I guess in the meantime I need to determine Ultra/Mac

You don’t need to determine one of them.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Not that Kuti exactly helped themselves or was SUPER towny, but they weren't scummy and my gut was RIGHT
and you all hated me for saying that, silly geese lol
(and dead chat hated me for saying that too apparently, but I SHALL NOT REFRAIN! FREEEEEEDOM)

Apart from this. I was sent, presumably by PoD, to chat with the dead last night. I can confirm that both posts from the grave are from Banana and Martin, respectively; they were not modified at all as far as I could tell. That means Ultra is entirely confirmed town, which is... something, I guess. Even the bloody dead hate me (but yes banana, I know you don't hate me, you just want me dead nonetheless because you don't believe me ). So sad.

The only other medium activity in dead chat was DM, who has been there since N1. Which leads me to a question that might not be so obvious when just playing in the thread, but that becomes kinda striking when you join the dead chat: how come DM is the only medium who can just send himself in there all the time AND the only one who can publish anything? Besides, it's not like his role (ghost of christmas to be or w/e, he's the one of the future, asked him) justifies that flavor-wise. That sounds like how I'd design a scum medium among 2 town mediums.


~~

stop using goofy as some insult
explain to me how this sequence of posts were so townie?

that's pretty goofy if you ask me

Also, about the three Kuti posts you're asking about, even though I am pretty sure you're just scum lol, I'll still share (and who knows, perhaps you'll convince me otherwise...):

Hi I'm not a wolf but I accept myself being flipped for game forwarding reasons. Don't have time or energy to play so yeet away. Bye.

I wanted to eat the d1/n1 because I only had time for day 1 in the game and only agreed to play for wisp and Lumi.

So have fun. Achro congrats on 1/2 of your wincon.

Look at post #1. "I'm not a wolf" - not literally a wolf disappearing and lolcatting away, which was basically the only potentially valid-looking theory to say Kuti was scum. "I accept myself being flipped for game forwarding reasons" - considering how the day went, this was kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy, but it also was understandable from a town PoV. "Don't have time or energy to play so yeet anyway. Bye" - apathy, honestly I just gut like the tone but I cannot ask you to agree with me on gut so I won't.

Post #2: matches with what you said yourself about Kuti, Wisp. More importantly, "only agreed to play for Wisp and Lumi" really seemed sincere, especially considering the very carefree/not so serious style they adopted this game generally speaking (the only exception to this was the big WAAAAH for favorite holidays).

Post #3: honestly nothing much to say about this, it tonally fits with the rest but that's pretty much it.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

@Dark Magician You need to be doing a lot more to convince us that you're town, because right now I'm pretty much convinced that you're Mafia. So instead of pre-flipping Marshall town and trying to get a third guy voted, I need you to analyze Marshall and who he could be scum partners with.

Marshall, you are not in any better a position. From your point of view (assuming town), you know DM is scum so give us your insight on who his partners are before either of you kick the bucket.

I think were gonna have to kill both of you before we consider killing ikarus. And if it is Ikarus, then I guess we're fucked

In theory, I know either DM is scum or Ikarus is (or both, but that would be mindblowing and weird lol). However, that leads me to my next point, which I've thought upon and discussed with Martin last night.

If Ikarus is scum, I think we have to just accept the loss here.

Why? Because we're never going to flip Ikarus before we flip both DM and myself: both of us are too heavily suspected, whereas Ikarus is honestly quite towny. Apart from that, the caroler flip from Debbie seems to indicate Ikarus really got a carol on N1, since noone else claimed to have received one. So here, I think I'm just going to

-vote Dark Magician

If you're scum, Ikarus, then gg wp, and you deserve the game much more than the town lol.


As for who's teamed with DM, I already talked about it quite a lot, and even pinged you in a post telling you to go look at my world, @Stellaria ... but anyway, I intend to detail on this further today. To sum up, it's DM/Wisp/Arrow, and the results of last night strengthened my faith in this. See my post with a spoiler not long before EoD2 for details in the meantime.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I TR both Wiisp and Stellaria based on SOD3 alone. Their overall standing in my read is a secret.

Explain the Wisp townread to me, please, @ikarusdk . I do not see it. I heavily townread Stellaria based on my interaction with them on D2 (and the fact this interaction fits with their general character, expressed throughout the game), though.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

From the sounds of it in wolf chat though, it’s likely MM is still gonna vote me.

Don’t think they believe it’s DK.

I’m afraid it might be DK but I’m hoping it’s just MM but I would like to go over both of them before deciding which one I’ll vote.

"in wolf chat"
Wrong server, I assume? xD

By curiosity, why are you now seemingly strongly considering the scum!Ikarus world, whereas it didn't feel much that way yesterday or even in night chat, where you just no u'd me when I called you scum?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Arrow still remains a bit of a mystery to me. I guess Kuti flip makes me feel much better about him, and he hasn't really said anything that yelled scum.....but I don't know if that is because I don't have much to work with.

If anyone got an opinion about arrow, would be appreicated

Long story short: he's very probably scum. I've been thinking this to various extents throughout the entire game, but now I'd say he would need to be very damn convincing for me to townread him at all. My main points against him is that he made lots of "nothingburger" posts early on, talked a bit about mechanics, literally never analyzed ANYONE (unless you count analyzing Kuti as a jester lol) and fits in pretty much any scum team you could ever think of. I'm going to ISO him to refresh my own memory and to make sure I haven't missed anything; take what you will from this.

Spoiler : Arrow ISO analysis :

ARROW ISO START

The first 8 posts are a whole lot of nothing. Hello world, favorite holiday is halloween, wow you were active, valentine's cards (honestly this post did something to me personally lol but it's not game-related, game-wise it's nothing/"fluff"), "STOP POKING ME!", speculating there isnt more than 2-3 neutrals (that's not exactly insightful lol), music, says he got lost in activity.

I dunno if you know me. I don't FM often, more on the SC2 mod side. Thus my FM reads may be a bit off. I definitely don't have meta on anyone.

Banana feels like lazy town, possibly a cit, especially considering they claim a Hydra.
Achro is putting in some pressure, which for day 1, seems scummy to me, since he'd have no way to know others unless he's emissary. But I'm not used to D1 lynches.
Ikarus feels town, but that's pure gut from me.

Self-meta /shrug

"Banana feels like lazy town" - okay, understandable take (I kinda had the same hunch on D1), but then I'm a little surprised he never said anything at all about him or people pushing him. This post is literally the only occurence of him talking about Banana, apart from this post in reaction to Stellaria's hydra stuff:

@Stellaria BananaCucho is an old hand, if they're the one running it.

Which is terribly weak and strange, considering Banana was literally the D1 lynch. It's not like there was nothing to say, nobody to question, etc.

"Achro is putting in some pressure, which for day 1, seems scummy to me" - That's just a culture clash thing because games in very old days (as in, before I even joined the site) were different and people couldn't care less about D1, so that's NAI

And then he voices a gut townread on Ikarus, which is like, sure.

Achro feels scummy to me, as I just posted. Not very confident in that.
PoD may be flying under the radar.

This post is in reaction to me asking this:

Indeed

Perhaps some cues to get you and Banana started, since both of you seemed out of the loop due to posts ( @Arrow @TheBananaBaroness ):
- what are your thoughts on Achro's neutral claim?
- Ultra vs myself: conclusion?
- Do you think there is anyone going under the radar right now (who and why)?

"Achro feels scummy to me"... well okay, thank you very much? Considering I was going back and forth with Achro at the time (or rather, had just finished doing so), there was a lot to say about it, there was matter for analysis. This is almost textually saying "I don't want to analyze".

"PoD may be flying under the radar" - okay, why? This is really just a "hi, I exist, I did something" post with zero interest in actually solving the game. It's like he only bothered to reply to my questions for the sake of shutting me up XD. If he had lots of solvy posts elsewhere, I could perhaps see it as just not being warmed up for FM yet, but considering his lack of ANY of those posts, this is scummy as hell.


More posts, just one-liners pointing out some stuff without analyzing anything, giving any reads, or God forbid, push anybody...

I guess my gut is that assuming a 'carefully balanced' setup, we have three medium claims from Martin and DM and PoD. We also have gift giver from Kuti.

Achro has claimed both Serial Killer and "non-killing neutral with a variety of win conditions" in different posts, which feels jestery.

Frinckles likes the Caroler role, so I feel that's probably mixed in somewhere.

THis is too many power claims, to me, for a game that's 'carefully balanced'.

I'm just quoting this because it's probably one of the most significant posts of his ISO, which is telling, considering how empty and weak it is.
Calling Achro jestery - I hadn't noticed this before, but it seems he just picked "calling people jesters" as his gimmick to appear to do something lol (cf. calling Kuti jester)


Arrow mistakenly says Martin claimed medium (instead of Banana), /shrug

First off, I haven't read the day start post before reviewing this, because I want to actually post something of consequence.

Kuti is by my reads a Jester; they spend much of early D1 talking about dying, other commitments, and random vote Wiisp who hasn't even posted by that point yet.

PoD is one of the other two ghosts, he's softed it by talking about Blessings, which was a word used on Banana's rolecard.

I believe Achro's neutral claim; he seems nervous about dying, which implies there's no team to bat cleanup for his theoretical win if he were to die.

DarkMagician claims blessing power, which would round out the three Christmas Ghosts.

Ikarus is town.

Progression on Achro from jester to I believe him: nonexistent
Progression on Ikarus: nonexistent, literally just said it was a gut read earlier and there's nothing else about it (note that this looks kinda good for Ikarus, assuming wolf Arrow, since it's unlikely he picked a teammate as his only voiced read)

The rest is just mechanical blah blah again, no solviness, no analysis


One last interesting post:

Deb voted me and checked out; and I'm not really sure what he was trying to accomplish other than a possible miselim. If he was pressuring me, he'd need to stick around to get the response.

This is actually the most solvy/analytic post he's ever made... and per normal standards, I'd say this lacks pursuing the goal of actually solving Debbie, like it lacks any form of pressure, further questioning, etc. It's like he doesn't feel the need or desire to gain any new information; this desire is completely absent from his entire ISO.


Overall, Arrow is the incarnation of "information instead of analysis" (IIOA) of the low-posting style (which is apparently not mentioned in the mafiascum article lol but still). Town wants to solve the game, to gain information, and that is true for newbies or "bad players" as well, just because that's the very nature of the game. I see NONE of this with Arrow.

Yeah, Arrow is just scum lol.

@ikarusdk there we go

Also I just saw this:

I guess in the meantime I need to determine Ultra/Mac

Ultra is confirmed town by Martin's ability. No need to waste time on this, he's a living flipped town.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Alright, I'm a little done with reading ISOs and formulating coherent thoughts lol, and noone's here, so I'm taking a break

[ikarusdk]

Long story short: he's very probably scum. I've been thinking this to various extents throughout the entire game, but now I'd say he would need to be very damn convincing for me to townread him at all. My main points against him is that he made lots of "nothingburger" posts early on, talked a bit about mechanics, literally never analyzed ANYONE (unless you count analyzing Kuti as a jester lol) and fits in pretty much any scum team you could ever think of. I'm going to ISO him to refresh my own memory and to make sure I haven't missed anything; take what you will from this.

Spoiler : Arrow ISO analysis :

ARROW ISO START

The first 8 posts are a whole lot of nothing. Hello world, favorite holiday is halloween, wow you were active, valentine's cards (honestly this post did something to me personally lol but it's not game-related, game-wise it's nothing/"fluff"), "STOP POKING ME!", speculating there isnt more than 2-3 neutrals (that's not exactly insightful lol), music, says he got lost in activity.



Self-meta /shrug

"Banana feels like lazy town" - okay, understandable take (I kinda had the same hunch on D1), but then I'm a little surprised he never said anything at all about him or people pushing him. This post is literally the only occurence of him talking about Banana, apart from this post in reaction to Stellaria's hydra stuff:


Which is terribly weak and strange, considering Banana was literally the D1 lynch. It's not like there was nothing to say, nobody to question, etc.

"Achro is putting in some pressure, which for day 1, seems scummy to me" - That's just a culture clash thing because games in very old days (as in, before I even joined the site) were different and people couldn't care less about D1, so that's NAI

And then he voices a gut townread on Ikarus, which is like, sure.




This post is in reaction to me asking this:



"Achro feels scummy to me"... well okay, thank you very much? Considering I was going back and forth with Achro at the time (or rather, had just finished doing so), there was a lot to say about it, there was matter for analysis. This is almost textually saying "I don't want to analyze".

"PoD may be flying under the radar" - okay, why? This is really just a "hi, I exist, I did something" post with zero interest in actually solving the game. It's like he only bothered to reply to my questions for the sake of shutting me up XD. If he had lots of solvy posts elsewhere, I could perhaps see it as just not being warmed up for FM yet, but considering his lack of ANY of those posts, this is scummy as hell.


More posts, just one-liners pointing out some stuff without analyzing anything, giving any reads, or God forbid, push anybody...



I'm just quoting this because it's probably one of the most significant posts of his ISO, which is telling, considering how empty and weak it is.
Calling Achro jestery - I hadn't noticed this before, but it seems he just picked "calling people jesters" as his gimmick to appear to do something lol (cf. calling Kuti jester)


Arrow mistakenly says Martin claimed medium (instead of Banana), /shrug



Progression on Achro from jester to I believe him: nonexistent
Progression on Ikarus: nonexistent, literally just said it was a gut read earlier and there's nothing else about it (note that this looks kinda good for Ikarus, assuming wolf Arrow, since it's unlikely he picked a teammate as his only voiced read)

The rest is just mechanical blah blah again, no solviness, no analysis


One last interesting post:



This is actually the most solvy/analytic post he's ever made... and per normal standards, I'd say this lacks pursuing the goal of actually solving Debbie, like it lacks any form of pressure, further questioning, etc. It's like he doesn't feel the need or desire to gain any new information; this desire is completely absent from his entire ISO.


Overall, Arrow is the incarnation of "information instead of analysis" (IIOA) of the low-posting style (which is apparently not mentioned in the mafiascum article lol but still). Town wants to solve the game, to gain information, and that is true for newbies or "bad players" as well, just because that's the very nature of the game. I see NONE of this with Arrow.

Yeah, Arrow is just scum lol.

@ikarusdk there we go

Also I just saw this:


Ultra is confirmed town by Martin's ability. No need to waste time on this, he's a living flipped town.

I just got back from 3 hours drive - and starting to build a case, but dinner is arriving soon so I won't be finishing my case any time soon - hopefully within the next 3 hours as I got chores to do

Ah yup I forgot about that specific part in Martins words

[ikarusdk]

Let's burn some witches shall we?

This is gonna generate some heat but I'm 100% certain I am right.



Chapter 1. Before we get down to WHY, let's review the SoD2 fmpov - a town.



The night before I received a carol containing DM/MM/Kutiplz. If you look back on SoD, I was present at the start (as you could see from my opening about how I'm going to uphold Banana's legacy), but was intentionally withholding talking about absolutely anything until all players in the carol. Perhaps it is more accurate that I wanted DM and MM to start talking because I didn't really care about Kuti slot, I was going to vote them anyway based on my explanation (https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...l=1#post990547), post 1793. I was TRing MM more or less while DM was floating between neutral to scumlean based on Day 1.

Before DM and MM started talking, I was exploring into an alternate option of Kuti-Arrow being a team following Arrow's opening, but quickly put this idea aside because I wanted to solve DM/MM slot (for if Kuti flips town despite, or I failed to lynch Kuti). So I wanted till both DM and MM started talking, and I found it weird how DM's supposed chat (which I don't really doubt atm) was protecting PoD, who I was starting to sus a little bit, because of our obviously different world view and his reasons for SoD2 push on Stellaria (they did not like how stellaria forcused so much on hydra thing) was bleak to me. It occurred to me if DM/PoD were W/W, it could've been a way to protect them both from a lynch, and if they were W/T, DM could get towncred from PoD. But now, as seeing that Martins' message did not CC about this, it does not matter. I'm pointing it out this is why I chose DM to see if I can pry some info.

They also told me to not push or vote POD today.
They said the slot can be analyzed further but seeing who POD picks as the Heatmiser (other anonymous medium, I am the Frostmiser.)
Told me if POD is town we lose so much, said if they are scum that can be found out

On top of this, I didn't believe that all three mediums could be town so I started to explore the fact that there could be mafia between DM and PoD slot.

-vote Kutiplz

Gonna drop this right now while I assess Dark/MM/PoD posts.

And no, this isn't an rvs vote

It did not help that PoD was so willing to accuse people for voting banana because banana basically slipped a claim. There had been some back and forth about this between Stellaria/PoD/myself and at some point I decided that PoD does not feel town so I'd shade and pressure DM to see how he would react - and that could reveal some more info about DM and PoD - this is what I wanted to achieve + DM takes priority for me because he is in carol.

Now let me remind you, these interactions are what DM's saying I was wolfy

Well first off, mechanically it has to be MM/DK because it isn’t me.
Second off, DK had said some stuff yesterday that I felt wolfy. (I don’t remember what it was because I’ve been focused on another ongoing game more.) I can probably find it but I believe it was before they claimed they had a Carol.

Spoiler : Ikarus-DM SoD2 interaction :

PoD and Dark both playing as Medium and Pod's insistence that two has to verify the words of dead people - and yet they can only do it on even or odd nights and there is no way to verify it because if they were WvW, they could easily amend the posts. The only thing we can trust is the message from the grave by host.

Not to mention Dark saying banana said pod should not be touched.

How convenient.

Anyway, I was proding about Kuti, but my stance changed

-vote Dark Magician

PoD is more because 1. I sus dark 2. their association with their roles + messages were all too convenient.

I don't sus PoD because he put us on chopping block. That isn't me.

@Dark , would appreciate it if you could respond to my question sooner than later.

I only claimed Medium that blesses, it’s not “a great deal of PR abilities” lmao.
“So confident to live last day 1” idk man I said I’d accept death if I died day 1 but you seem my claim man lol, you should obviously know why I am useful past day 1 and would be beneficial to solving the wolves here lmao.
Martin had softed? Lol. He was also not suspected like I was.

I had you as town, but this post no longer makes you town for me, you might be wolf tbh.

why, for asking you a valid question? This is a poor reason to change your townlist and feels more like OMGUS.

See, if I know you are useful past day 1 and beneficial to solving wolves, why wouldn't wolves kill you? That is like an obvious target for mafia.

Oh shit the dude actually had the fucking nerve to say it was fake despite the fact you can just put someone in as a medium to confirm?

Yeah this guys a fucking wolf.

-vote Ikarusdk

“ATM”

Motherfucker why are you attacking the Medium claims?

there is no mention in my post at all that your claim was fake.

I believe in your claim.

What I don't trust is that you are town medium, and you could've amended banana's post.

That is where i was getting at.

because like mediums can be of both alignment, amiright

Why would both mediums be wolves?
Lmao.

You still haven't answered to my question.

Why were you so confident that you'd live past day 1?

You stated you are useful to town post day 1.

Why would they not kill you?

WOW

It’s almost as if I was catching up on Posts!

hence I'm asking you, not pod lmao.

Your change in tone and passive aggressiveness doesn't help alleviate my suspicion on you.

I don't perceive you as the type to go crazy the moment someone points finger at them (as some players did day 1)

But your tones have changed so much in this regard, I wonder if I prodded in your sore spot.

Now, look. I did not assume that DM would be the type to get emotional the first moment someone lays a fos (in fact, because someone else has put DM under poe before), so I was quite surprised I was getting stronger reaction than I expected. The complete flip from townreading me to top scumread based on the intereaction above. Can you guys understand with DM's change of read about me? Because I simply cannot. And what 'wolfy' posts did I make in above interaction? I tried to put myself in T!DM's shoes while I am reviewing the whole thing, and I honestly cannot say I would react the same way even if someone was getting rude.

Also, not only he OMGUS'd me straight away in very passive aggressive tones in his posts replying to my posts, he simply would not drop the fact that I am the wolf even after others chimed in and implied that this is probably TvT. Near this point PoD said this, which made me feel a bit better about him because this was correct.

This basically confirm that at least 1 person in the list of Dark/Kuti/MM/Ika are not town. People often forget that carols can be faked if the person receiving them are mafia (in future reference)

After a while we started talking about other things.



Chapter 2. SoD 3 and Why DM is the mafia, not MM



Now we have Kuti green and Martin green. Kuti flipping green means there is 100% without a doubt there is at least one mafia in DM/MM.

And these are DM's opening posts. For the sake of clarity and to get to the point, let's forgive DM for assuming I had claimed the role of carol - a mistake probably.

Spoiler : DM's posts SoD2 :

Ok well I was gonna just vote MM and hope it isn’t DK as a wolf but like.

Now I am thinking DK can be fake after that flip.

To clarify, I was thinking DK can be a wolf faking but now that someone with their claim role flipped I have them at close to equal footing with MM.

I probably still didn’t explain that right but basically it can go either way on who flips wolf for me right now.

From the sounds of it in wolf chat though, it’s likely MM is still gonna vote me.

Don’t think they believe it’s DK.

I’m afraid it might be DK but I’m hoping it’s just MM but I would like to go over both of them before deciding which one I’ll vote.

????

Well first off, mechanically it has to be MM/DK because it isn’t me.
Second off, DK had said some stuff yesterday that I felt wolfy. (I don’t remember what it was because I’ve been focused on another ongoing game more.) I can probably find it but I believe it was before they claimed they had a Carol.

As for MM I had slight suspicion on them Day 1, I don’t think it was a whole lot I had more suspicion I think on Mac and PoD.

But then Banana said some stuff in dead chat that made me think more on it.
Ultra/MM containing a wolf could make sense there, as from a wolf perspective how did they handle Town!Banana and getting rid of a very likely Medium would significantly help mafia because 1)Its a PR and 2) (assuming PoD is Town) Medium is all town and a useful tool to stop those mafia.

Well considering there is 3 Mediums here, there can theoretically be multiple of other roles.
HOWEVER.

I find it hard to think PoD and DK are both town because that’s so much power for us.

Well if your a wolf you could have just made up your own Carol that contains all town.

Let's sum up what's happening.

1. in T!DM's mind - MM is 110% wolf. There is no reason to believe otherwise. It is a fact.
2. Yet, in a guaranteed lynch scenario - as most people already suspect MM including the dead people - yet his posts are 90% about how I could be the wolf.
3. Finding this weird, I wanted to be sure about DM being a wolf by toning down my posts while asking a very important question - who he is going to vote. If he says MM contrary to his post history on day 3, then I might be wrong. But if he keeps tagging me along for no other reason than him thinking I'm a wolf from our day 2 interaction, then he is probably a wolf.

Does that help me in your list mechanically leaving my posts aside

Well I think DMs confusion was that I claimed caroler

Yeah hence a dumb question because I can see that from your perspective

So who are you pushing today

Andddddd... this was his response.

I made it clear I can go either way here.

DK, elaborate on you “shading me for info”.
What exactly did you want to gain from calling the banana’s post fake?

I ain’t pre-flipping at all.

I just know mechanically one of them HAS to be a wolf from my POV.

He is still bringing me to the 2 players he would vote today when MM is already a guaranteed wolf in T!DM's mind. This is where Wiisp earns a very big towncred from me by asking DM the correct and important questions

i mean if u two werent so wolfy and DK wasn't so much better, even though I still can see the wolfiness in DK, this could be a thought

do u actually have reason to wolf read DK, and like MM enough, to consider this? like even before kuti flipped town, u had this thought, why?

He cannot answer this because let me sum up DM's play on SoD3.

1. He cannot lynch MM - because that automatically outs him as wolf
2. ikarus is a convenient target to shade here so DM can offer ikarus as an alternative to MM
3. Continue shading ikarus in almost every post
4. Lynch ikarus who will flip town, and everyone will assume DM was simply wrong
5. NK a town and blame it on MM
6. MM is already an easy taget, lynch MM who will probably flip green.
7. NK a town
8. At this point Achro probably has won, and town does not have the number to win.

-vote Dark Magician

At this point I am willing to die on this hill - DM is the wolf, and MM is town.

[ikarusdk]

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...l=1#post990135

Here is a link to my post where interaction between DM and I take place - I realised the final version did not contain all the posts from Dark and I - this would be easier to use to follow.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Starting an ISO on Wisp that I'm not sure I'll finish, at least not now

i mean the arguement isnt that their role could be townie or wolfie, its more so, i think outright claiming that is townie
im well aware that any role can be any alignment

too early to care if that statement ends up being wrong

ill should also add u to that

Bestest Town:
Wisp


Townlean
PoD
Martin

Neutral
Chris

PoD posted once, or rather the same thing twice.
I posted more then once and they aren’t the same thing.

They are a townlean from their one post and I ain’t even on your readslist?
The fuck man?

ur claim was a meme

Perhaps that's just tunnel vision on my end, but this looks like a very SvS interaction. It's like DM realized he could say something about his teammate without getting himself or his partner in trouble; it's like they're just toying with eachother lol. Even more importantly, DM did not reply to this last post at all. He straight up ignored it. Now, if DM were actually town, would "ur claim was a meme" satisfy him? Let's say I harbor doubts xD. It really feels like DM wasn't actually worried about Wisp at all, which indicates scum theatre.

Because town me does w/e the hell they want lol

When asked to justify progression by Ultra (who is confirmed town). I'm torn between saying the tone feels good and saying it's an easy escape from a difficult question lol. The D1 ISO has a lot of this attitude, and I'm not sure it's natural, but eh. In a vacuum, it's not particularly damning, but probably not towny either. see next quote

I never implied it answered anything directly, im telling u my playstyle, if u want to read into all all my movement, thr key point here is movement which makes me more likely to be townie since I'm way more strategic with my wolf votes

Answer to being told by Ultra that the previous post did not actually answer anything. Now I'm striking through what I wrote above, because that turns the carefree attitude into a suspiciously defensive one. Like, the town "I do w/e I want, and fuck you (kindly)" playstyle/attitude does exist in the world of mafia, but it's not matched by this very down-to-earth, not braggy answer. Scummy.

...I don't give a rat's behind about your playstyle, I asked you a question and you said "IDK I'm so random XD". That doesn't tell me anything about your thought process.

And? My job isn't to help you read me, it's for me to vote wolves

The saga continues xD. This is the kind of post I would have expected directly after the one saying "I do whatever I want". Not right after a serious, defensive, but deflective answer. I don't buy it.

Wisp why are you like V confused by any questions thrown your way and not actually answering them. Like I know work sucks atm but can you answer these questions after work or during breaks:

- explain your wolf meta in your own words
- explain why are you doing the things you are doing without ate

Please and ty :3

I don't want to explain in detail the differences between my wolf and town game, nor do I think I could even do it without saying what I find to be the obvious difference, since they have almost fused together at this point

I'm very well aware of the things I do, why I voted marshal, why I voted ultra, and why my current vote is where it is

As well as why I'm doing this, even though I doubt it will do anything

-vote MacDougal

What the heck, Kuti was probably actually on the right track and we just failed to heed it lol. Like, they were absolutely seeing what I am now seeing in the earlier parts of the ISO, and Wisp kept not responding with an actual answer


The following three posts are all in immediate succession; they were posted back to back and appear as such in the thread.

PoD posted once, or rather the same thing twice.
I posted more then once and they aren’t the same thing.

They are a townlean from their one post and I ain’t even on your readslist?
The fuck man?

honestly id vote DM just for this post
X does gets a town lean from this but I dont, always pings me as an odd way to look at an situation unless your specifically trying to look townie rather than wolf hunt

DM/Mac is where I'd look for wolves

Chris is taunting me in a very gross way which leads me to believe he is a Executioner that wants me dead, and also possibly Mac
which if its two people, or even more, i suspect one isn't town, and I know what my role card says

-vote macdougall

"I'd vote DM just for this post"
"It's DM/Mac"
proceeds to fix the misspelled vote on Mac that was placed without an explanation before, the only explanation being "and I know why I'm doing this" in the reply to Kuti quoted above


Let's see if a DM vote actually ever appeared on D1...

-vote dark magician

I don't really want to vote Mac anymore today, I will see again day 2 if this still stands

Naked vote with an "explanation" that actually isn't one, replaced 47 posts later by:

Meh I'm probably getting spooked by a possible town flip from Mac, even though I know this is their wolf meta

-vote MacDougall

.

This is relatively close to EoD. Wisp ended off-wagon with his vote on Kuti. There is no valid progression on DM to explain the switches. Instead, what we have is this:

But you wanna vote out a town member who can show follow up reads from dead town members in dead chat.

Like if your town here, do you not care about the game after you die?
Do you not want to help your team out while dead?
Don’t you want your voice to be heard after death?
Your exact post from dead chat would be blessed and shown in public day chat.

But if you want to execute me I guess that won’t happen will it?

I want u to be townier buts that's also a skill issue on my part if I can't find u, I think your claim was extremely wolfy, and the way ur using it as some leverage feels even worse, I feel like I'm being gaslit.

Gaslit from what exactly?
Also I am trying to socially show I am town, I’ve been responding to others concerns on me and explain my actions/thoughts.

I've already commented on this being scum theatre-y in a previous post. Like, what gaslighting? And how is DM's claim scummy in a vacuum on D1? And most importantly, how does all of this explain the switch off to Mac, and then to Banana, and finally to Kuti? The progression simply doesn't add up.


End of Day 1.

I mean I knew this was coming
Anyways

-vote dark magician

Ya I'm just placing my vote, sabi should just die today and very likely will

DMs posts still hella ping me I'm not sure how much I care about their claim since I already think their claim post was wolfy as he'll and kuti flipping wolf wouldn't change that either

Meh

And that's what happens on D2, where Kuti is pretty obviously getting lynched. "I scumread kuti but actually just vote DM because ?"... like, Wisp KNOWS it won't happen, he ADMITS IT lol. This is a perfect opportunity to park a vote on a scummate without risk. And again, progression? Why just move away from DM and Mac to end up on Banana and then Kuti at EoD1 if you actually think DM is the right call and end up going back to it on D2? It could be fine if there were a visible progression, but there absolutely isn't any.


Side note: where the heck does this come from:

ya Mac has me pocketed now

DIDN'T YOU ALMOST WANT TO LYNCH HIM NOT LONG AGO XD



I'm stopping here for now, might be enough tbh. I am convinced. Wisp/DM/Arrow it is

@macdougall @ikarusdk @Ultra @Stellaria
I feel like you should read this

[ikarusdk]

Will read now and compare this with my worldview.

Two back to back wall posts!

[ikarusdk]

But i'd also ping
@Ultra @Stellaria @macdougall @Marshmallow Marshall

[ikarusdk]

I ain’t pre-flipping at all.

I just know mechanically one of them HAS to be a wolf from my POV.

And buddy.

From YOUR SUPPOSED TOWN POV - MM is already a wolf. You already know this.

[ikarusdk]

Since I am certain

Here is my list - in order of no particular order

Town
MM
Stellaria
Mac
Ultra

Neut
Achro

Scumlean
PoD
Wiisp
Arrow

Scum
DM

fmpov we just lynch pod,arrow,wiisp (i need to consider wisp) in this order, town wins.
This list is made by who are my top townreads - then following process of elimination

[ikarusdk]

Spoiler : As to not clutter the forum :

Long story short: he's very probably scum. I've been thinking this to various extents throughout the entire game, but now I'd say he would need to be very damn convincing for me to townread him at all. My main points against him is that he made lots of "nothingburger" posts early on, talked a bit about mechanics, literally never analyzed ANYONE (unless you count analyzing Kuti as a jester lol) and fits in pretty much any scum team you could ever think of. I'm going to ISO him to refresh my own memory and to make sure I haven't missed anything; take what you will from this.

Spoiler : Arrow ISO analysis :

ARROW ISO START

The first 8 posts are a whole lot of nothing. Hello world, favorite holiday is halloween, wow you were active, valentine's cards (honestly this post did something to me personally lol but it's not game-related, game-wise it's nothing/"fluff"), "STOP POKING ME!", speculating there isnt more than 2-3 neutrals (that's not exactly insightful lol), music, says he got lost in activity.



Self-meta /shrug

"Banana feels like lazy town" - okay, understandable take (I kinda had the same hunch on D1), but then I'm a little surprised he never said anything at all about him or people pushing him. This post is literally the only occurence of him talking about Banana, apart from this post in reaction to Stellaria's hydra stuff:


Which is terribly weak and strange, considering Banana was literally the D1 lynch. It's not like there was nothing to say, nobody to question, etc.

"Achro is putting in some pressure, which for day 1, seems scummy to me" - That's just a culture clash thing because games in very old days (as in, before I even joined the site) were different and people couldn't care less about D1, so that's NAI

And then he voices a gut townread on Ikarus, which is like, sure.




This post is in reaction to me asking this:



"Achro feels scummy to me"... well okay, thank you very much? Considering I was going back and forth with Achro at the time (or rather, had just finished doing so), there was a lot to say about it, there was matter for analysis. This is almost textually saying "I don't want to analyze".

"PoD may be flying under the radar" - okay, why? This is really just a "hi, I exist, I did something" post with zero interest in actually solving the game. It's like he only bothered to reply to my questions for the sake of shutting me up XD. If he had lots of solvy posts elsewhere, I could perhaps see it as just not being warmed up for FM yet, but considering his lack of ANY of those posts, this is scummy as hell.


More posts, just one-liners pointing out some stuff without analyzing anything, giving any reads, or God forbid, push anybody...



I'm just quoting this because it's probably one of the most significant posts of his ISO, which is telling, considering how empty and weak it is.
Calling Achro jestery - I hadn't noticed this before, but it seems he just picked "calling people jesters" as his gimmick to appear to do something lol (cf. calling Kuti jester)


Arrow mistakenly says Martin claimed medium (instead of Banana), /shrug



Progression on Achro from jester to I believe him: nonexistent
Progression on Ikarus: nonexistent, literally just said it was a gut read earlier and there's nothing else about it (note that this looks kinda good for Ikarus, assuming wolf Arrow, since it's unlikely he picked a teammate as his only voiced read)

The rest is just mechanical blah blah again, no solviness, no analysis


One last interesting post:



This is actually the most solvy/analytic post he's ever made... and per normal standards, I'd say this lacks pursuing the goal of actually solving Debbie, like it lacks any form of pressure, further questioning, etc. It's like he doesn't feel the need or desire to gain any new information; this desire is completely absent from his entire ISO.


Overall, Arrow is the incarnation of "information instead of analysis" (IIOA) of the low-posting style (which is apparently not mentioned in the mafiascum article lol but still). Town wants to solve the game, to gain information, and that is true for newbies or "bad players" as well, just because that's the very nature of the game. I see NONE of this with Arrow.

Yeah, Arrow is just scum lol.

@ikarusdk there we go

Also I just saw this:


Ultra is confirmed town by Martin's ability. No need to waste time on this, he's a living flipped town.

Well you sold me on Arrow there.

Arrow>Pod/Wiisp - I am unsure I'm sold on Wiisp tbh but will think harder about it tonight. Will get back to you on this one.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Spoiler : Walls of Constantinople :

Let's burn some witches shall we?

This is gonna generate some heat but I'm 100% certain I am right.



Chapter 1. Before we get down to WHY, let's review the SoD2 fmpov - a town.



The night before I received a carol containing DM/MM/Kutiplz. If you look back on SoD, I was present at the start (as you could see from my opening about how I'm going to uphold Banana's legacy), but was intentionally withholding talking about absolutely anything until all players in the carol. Perhaps it is more accurate that I wanted DM and MM to start talking because I didn't really care about Kuti slot, I was going to vote them anyway based on my explanation (https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...l=1#post990547), post 1793. I was TRing MM more or less while DM was floating between neutral to scumlean based on Day 1.

Before DM and MM started talking, I was exploring into an alternate option of Kuti-Arrow being a team following Arrow's opening, but quickly put this idea aside because I wanted to solve DM/MM slot (for if Kuti flips town despite, or I failed to lynch Kuti). So I wanted till both DM and MM started talking, and I found it weird how DM's supposed chat (which I don't really doubt atm) was protecting PoD, who I was starting to sus a little bit, because of our obviously different world view and his reasons for SoD2 push on Stellaria (they did not like how stellaria forcused so much on hydra thing) was bleak to me. It occurred to me if DM/PoD were W/W, it could've been a way to protect them both from a lynch, and if they were W/T, DM could get towncred from PoD. But now, as seeing that Martins' message did not CC about this, it does not matter. I'm pointing it out this is why I chose DM to see if I can pry some info.



On top of this, I didn't believe that all three mediums could be town so I started to explore the fact that there could be mafia between DM and PoD slot.



It did not help that PoD was so willing to accuse people for voting banana because banana basically slipped a claim. There had been some back and forth about this between Stellaria/PoD/myself and at some point I decided that PoD does not feel town so I'd shade and pressure DM to see how he would react - and that could reveal some more info about DM and PoD - this is what I wanted to achieve + DM takes priority for me because he is in carol.

Now let me remind you, these interactions are what DM's saying I was wolfy

Spoiler : Ikarus-DM SoD2 interaction :

Now, look. I did not assume that DM would be the type to get emotional the first moment someone lays a fos (in fact, because someone else has put DM under poe before), so I was quite surprised I was getting stronger reaction than I expected. The complete flip from townreading me to top scumread based on the intereaction above. Can you guys understand with DM's change of read about me? Because I simply cannot. And what 'wolfy' posts did I make in above interaction? I tried to put myself in T!DM's shoes while I am reviewing the whole thing, and I honestly cannot say I would react the same way even if someone was getting rude.

Also, not only he OMGUS'd me straight away in very passive aggressive tones in his posts replying to my posts, he simply would not drop the fact that I am the wolf even after others chimed in and implied that this is probably TvT. Near this point PoD said this, which made me feel a bit better about him because this was correct.



After a while we started talking about other things.



Chapter 2. SoD 3 and Why DM is the mafia, not MM



Now we have Kuti green and Martin green. Kuti flipping green means there is 100% without a doubt there is at least one mafia in DM/MM.

And these are DM's opening posts. For the sake of clarity and to get to the point, let's forgive DM for assuming I had claimed the role of carol - a mistake probably.

Spoiler : DM's posts SoD2 :

????

Let's sum up what's happening.

1. in T!DM's mind - MM is 110% wolf. There is no reason to believe otherwise. It is a fact.
2. Yet, in a guaranteed lynch scenario - as most people already suspect MM including the dead people - yet his posts are 90% about how I could be the wolf.
3. Finding this weird, I wanted to be sure about DM being a wolf by toning down my posts while asking a very important question - who he is going to vote. If he says MM contrary to his post history on day 3, then I might be wrong. But if he keeps tagging me along for no other reason than him thinking I'm a wolf from our day 2 interaction, then he is probably a wolf.






Andddddd... this was his response.





He is still bringing me to the 2 players he would vote today when MM is already a guaranteed wolf in T!DM's mind. This is where Wiisp earns a very big towncred from me by asking DM the correct and important questions



He cannot answer this because let me sum up DM's play on SoD3.

1. He cannot lynch MM - because that automatically outs him as wolf
2. ikarus is a convenient target to shade here so DM can offer ikarus as an alternative to MM
3. Continue shading ikarus in almost every post
4. Lynch ikarus who will flip town, and everyone will assume DM was simply wrong
5. NK a town and blame it on MM
6. MM is already an easy taget, lynch MM who will probably flip green.
7. NK a town
8. At this point Achro probably has won, and town does not have the number to win.

-vote Dark Magician

At this point I am willing to die on this hill - DM is the wolf, and MM is town.

Whew, attack of the walls xD. Reading.


D2 ikarus progression makes sense and fits the content of this wall. More importantly, it explains this post (which ikarus mentions):

Rip Martin. I swear it was not me.

Rip Banana. I will uphold your legacy

"I will uphold your legacy" is just a weird post when disregarding the thought process explained at the start of the wall, but makes much more sense when taking the plan into account. As for the possibility of it being a scum plan, it's just tonally weird to say that legacy thing if it's not true lol. Plus:

-vote Kutiplz

Gonna drop this right now while I assess Dark/MM/PoD posts.

And no, this isn't an rvs vote

If Kuti is wolf, Arrow is wolf.

those two posts are also perfectly explained by the process described

Yeah, I officially accept losing to a world where Ikarus is scum.

As for the rest, I've read it, but honestly don't feel like writing a detailed analysis of it, considering accepting town Ikarus equals confirming scum DM, and considering I have no objections to what was said: it just makes sense. I'll merely say that I also noticed the strange switch DM made from being seemingly dead set on me being scum (even in the dead chat last night, he was into that) to suddenly strongly considering scum!Ikarus world, to the point of saying he considers both worlds equally. I believe I had also commented on this.

[powerofdeath]

-vote Dark Magician

I’ve been scumreading them since Day 1. I tr’d MM which is why i sent him to be medium. I personally would lynch ikarusdk before MM anyway.

Also @MartinGG I didnt want DM dead on dead 2 because his role was beneficial for town with your info in play. It make it harder for mafia to fake anything if there are two people getting the info. Thats why it was bad to kill him Day 2. Day 3 on the other hands is pretty good time to kill him

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Since I am certain

Here is my list - in order of no particular order

Town
MM
Stellaria
Mac
Ultra

Neut
Achro

Scumlean
PoD
Wiisp
Arrow

Scum
DM

fmpov we just lynch pod,arrow,wiisp (i need to consider wisp) in this order, town wins.
This list is made by who are my top townreads - then following process of elimination

Right, so this is what I wanted to ask you from your wall (chapter 1 specifically), but it's a separate topic so I'm making a separate post. What's your take on PoD, exactly? I've always more or less assumed he was town here, tbh, at least since the triple medium claims are a thing (considering I scumread DM for pretty much all that time to various extents). I also didn't see any red flags (although I have not specifically ISOed him, specifically because he sounded good). Moreover, I feel like sending me to the dead chat was a very honestly pro-town move, as I was pretty sure not to die, considering scum absolutely needed me alive. He could have sent somebody else, and I don't think it would have threatened him at all.

[ikarusdk]

If there are 3 mafia in our 14er with 1 neutral

10 player currently alive means 6 players are town.


Worst Case Scenario if you lynch ikarus on day 3.

Day 3 - 6t, 3m, 1n
mislynch
town nk'd

Day 4 - 4t, 3m, 1n
mislynch
nk

Day 5 - 2t, 3m, 1n
Town loses

We can only allow 2 mislynches - something Mafia knows, and DM is utilizing it to cause a mislynch on myself and MM on Day 3 and 4, because if we lynch me here, you will lynch MM tomorrow and you know it


Lynching DM who would flip town

Day 3 - 6t, 3m, 1n
mislynch
town nk'd

Day 4 - 4t, 3m, 1n
lynch MM
town nk'd

Day 5 - 3t, 2m, 1n
Not Lylo


So lynching DM is the correct play here because even if I'm wrong in 1 in a million chance we lynch MM the next day who would flip wolf.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I've looked, or rather glanced at PoD's ISO because I've been analyzing ISOs for like 2-3 hours in total today lol, and I rather see a non-association between him and DM, if anything. PoD looks like he's actually trying to solve DM, his push doesn't look half-assed, and according to vote history, his vote on DM remains for quite a long time (from post 505 to post 1084), although it doesn't end on him at EoD (but it also ends on Mac, the banana counterwagon, and not weirdly off-wagon like Wisp's vote). I'm failing to see what you seem to be seeing, tbh.

[Dark Magician]

"in wolf chat"
Wrong server, I assume? xD

By curiosity, why are you now seemingly strongly considering the scum!Ikarus world, whereas it didn't feel much that way yesterday or even in night chat, where you just no u'd me when I called you scum?

It’s funny because it’s not actually even a slip.
Because I’m not actually informed.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I am now tired and should do something else lol, been doing this for a while now. I'll be back later today, but not in the next hours, probably. Will read the replies when I come back; ping if you wish.

[Dark Magician]

And buddy.

From YOUR SUPPOSED TOWN POV - MM is already a wolf. You already know this.

Nah it could be you.
Idk who the group wolves are.

[Dark Magician]

There doing pretty good though.

[Dark Magician]

If there are 3 mafia in our 14er with 1 neutral

10 player currently alive means 6 players are town.


Worst Case Scenario if you lynch ikarus on day 3.

Day 3 - 6t, 3m, 1n
mislynch
town nk'd

Day 4 - 4t, 3m, 1n
mislynch
nk

Day 5 - 2t, 3m, 1n
Town loses

We can only allow 2 mislynches - something Mafia knows, and DM is utilizing it to cause a mislynch on myself and MM on Day 3 and 4, because if we lynch me here, you will lynch MM tomorrow and you know it


Lynching DM who would flip town

Day 3 - 6t, 3m, 1n
mislynch
town nk'd

Day 4 - 4t, 3m, 1n
lynch MM
town nk'd

Day 5 - 3t, 2m, 1n
Not Lylo


So lynching DM is the correct play here because even if I'm wrong in 1 in a million chance we lynch MM the next day who would flip wolf.

I’m just trying to survive and figure out who’s informed wolves.

[ikarusdk]

Right, so this is what I wanted to ask you from your wall (chapter 1 specifically), but it's a separate topic so I'm making a separate post. What's your take on PoD, exactly? I've always more or less assumed he was town here, tbh, at least since the triple medium claims are a thing (considering I scumread DM for pretty much all that time to various extents). I also didn't see any red flags (although I have not specifically ISOed him, specifically because he sounded good). Moreover, I feel like sending me to the dead chat was a very honestly pro-town move, as I was pretty sure not to die, considering scum absolutely needed me alive. He could have sent somebody else, and I don't think it would have threatened him at all.

To be honest, I will need to think about PoD and Wiisp further because I am not 100% certain. While neither has shown clear red flags, they both had scummy AND towny posts. Sometimes they aligned with my own worldview, sometimes they went against it. I am leaning against PoD to be quite honest.

As to why I believe Mac and Stellaria are town - they have never shown any anti-town agenda and more or less shared the same worldview, despite small clash in details here and there, unlike PoD and Wiisps. I do admit that I am guilty of being a little biased towards Mac and Stellaria becuase they called me town too many times.


Things will develop and further cement into something more solid as days progress, so we will see.

[Dark Magician]

I don’t think any of the informed wolves have shown red flags to you or you are the red flag yourself DK.

[ikarusdk]

I don’t think any of the informed wolves have shown red flags to you or you are the red flag yourself DK.

okay I will talk to you since there is noone else to chime in to keep us company.

Who is the 3rd mafia member in your view aside from myself and MM?

[ikarusdk]

I've looked, or rather glanced at PoD's ISO because I've been analyzing ISOs for like 2-3 hours in total today lol, and I rather see a non-association between him and DM, if anything. PoD looks like he's actually trying to solve DM, his push doesn't look half-assed, and according to vote history, his vote on DM remains for quite a long time (from post 505 to post 1084), although it doesn't end on him at EoD (but it also ends on Mac, the banana counterwagon, and not weirdly off-wagon like Wisp's vote). I'm failing to see what you seem to be seeing, tbh.

PoD and Wiisp both stand in equal footing in my world, although I scumread Wiisp more than PoD on day 1. However, as I quoted Wiisp's post before in my wall, Wiisps asks a very good, revealing question. In a W!MM world, why the hell is Ikarus on the same footing as MM? What makes DM so sure about this that he doesn't care who he votes today?

I thought about the possibility of Wiisp realising town figuring DM is mafia, and taking it into himself to distance from DM by asking unanswerable question - because let's face it. In a T!DM world, W!MM is mechanically certain. What else could you find in a player(me) so suspicious that you would switch from a townread to scumread and this read is strong enough to have the same weight as mechanically proven wolf to T!DM?

Is it likely? Probably not, given the timing of Wiisps' post.

[ikarusdk]

-vote Dark Magician

I’ve been scumreading them since Day 1. I tr’d MM which is why i sent him to be medium. I personally would lynch ikarusdk before MM anyway.

Also @MartinGG I didnt want DM dead on dead 2 because his role was beneficial for town with your info in play. It make it harder for mafia to fake anything if there are two people getting the info. Thats why it was bad to kill him Day 2. Day 3 on the other hands is pretty good time to kill him

Can you asnwer my question?

Did you read my wall post on DM when you made this?

[Arrow]

Spoiler : Calling me out :

[QUOTE=Marshmallow Marshall;990677]Long story short: he's very probably scum. I've been thinking this to various extents throughout the entire game, but now I'd say he would need to be very damn convincing for me to townread him at all. My main points against him is that he made lots of "nothingburger" posts early on, talked a bit about mechanics, literally never analyzed ANYONE (unless you count analyzing Kuti as a jester lol) and fits in pretty much any scum team you could ever think of. I'm going to ISO him to refresh my own memory and to make sure I haven't missed anything; take what you will from this.

Spoiler : Arrow ISO analysis :

ARROW ISO START

The first 8 posts are a whole lot of nothing. Hello world, favorite holiday is halloween, wow you were active, valentine's cards (honestly this post did something to me personally lol but it's not game-related, game-wise it's nothing/"fluff"), "STOP POKING ME!", speculating there isnt more than 2-3 neutrals (that's not exactly insightful lol), music, says he got lost in activity.



Self-meta /shrug

"Banana feels like lazy town" - okay, understandable take (I kinda had the same hunch on D1), but then I'm a little surprised he never said anything at all about him or people pushing him. This post is literally the only occurence of him talking about Banana, apart from this post in reaction to Stellaria's hydra stuff:


Which is terribly weak and strange, considering Banana was literally the D1 lynch. It's not like there was nothing to say, nobody to question, etc.

"Achro is putting in some pressure, which for day 1, seems scummy to me" - That's just a culture clash thing because games in very old days (as in, before I even joined the site) were different and people couldn't care less about D1, so that's NAI

And then he voices a gut townread on Ikarus, which is like, sure.




This post is in reaction to me asking this:



"Achro feels scummy to me"... well okay, thank you very much? Considering I was going back and forth with Achro at the time (or rather, had just finished doing so), there was a lot to say about it, there was matter for analysis. This is almost textually saying "I don't want to analyze".

"PoD may be flying under the radar" - okay, why? This is really just a "hi, I exist, I did something" post with zero interest in actually solving the game. It's like he only bothered to reply to my questions for the sake of shutting me up XD. If he had lots of solvy posts elsewhere, I could perhaps see it as just not being warmed up for FM yet, but considering his lack of ANY of those posts, this is scummy as hell.


More posts, just one-liners pointing out some stuff without analyzing anything, giving any reads, or God forbid, push anybody...



I'm just quoting this because it's probably one of the most significant posts of his ISO, which is telling, considering how empty and weak it is.
Calling Achro jestery - I hadn't noticed this before, but it seems he just picked "calling people jesters" as his gimmick to appear to do something lol (cf. calling Kuti jester)


Arrow mistakenly says Martin claimed medium (instead of Banana), /shrug



Progression on Achro from jester to I believe him: nonexistent
Progression on Ikarus: nonexistent, literally just said it was a gut read earlier and there's nothing else about it (note that this looks kinda good for Ikarus, assuming wolf Arrow, since it's unlikely he picked a teammate as his only voiced read)

The rest is just mechanical blah blah again, no solviness, no analysis


One last interesting post:



This is actually the most solvy/analytic post he's ever made... and per normal standards, I'd say this lacks pursuing the goal of actually solving Debbie, like it lacks any form of pressure, further questioning, etc. It's like he doesn't feel the need or desire to gain any new information; this desire is completely absent from his entire ISO.


Overall, Arrow is the incarnation of "information instead of analysis" (IIOA) of the low-posting style (which is apparently not mentioned in the mafiascum article lol but still). Town wants to solve the game, to gain information, and that is true for newbies or "bad players" as well, just because that's the very nature of the game. I see NONE of this with Arrow.

Yeah, Arrow is just scum lol.

@ikarusdk there we go

Also I just saw this:

I don't know. Maybe my handling of reports (and thus having full information all the time) is crippling me here, but the truth is, you can look back at my meta and I've never been a strong forum mafia player without solid information. It doesn't help work slammed me this week with a surprise fire (that should've been mentioned months ago) but the fact is that I'm not good at a lot of this analysis, at least at the timeframes needed. I get up from the night, see 300 posts, and get paralyzed with indecision about how to analyze them all.

If I knew how to read/analyze people in FM I would. Honestly I probably shouldn't even have signed up because its not fair to the other players for me to be this inactive.

Beyond that, looking at the role list, I'd say MM/Ikarus is one of my scum votes. Achro is neutral working on his wincon. The reason I flipped on Achro is because I didn't foresee two Jesters and had Kuti as a lock for that. Obviously a bad read there.

[ikarusdk]

ebwop


'can you answer this* question?'

[ikarusdk]

I've looked, or rather glanced at PoD's ISO because I've been analyzing ISOs for like 2-3 hours in total today lol, and I rather see a non-association between him and DM, if anything. PoD looks like he's actually trying to solve DM, his push doesn't look half-assed, and according to vote history, his vote on DM remains for quite a long time (from post 505 to post 1084), although it doesn't end on him at EoD (but it also ends on Mac, the banana counterwagon, and not weirdly off-wagon like Wisp's vote). I'm failing to see what you seem to be seeing, tbh.

I am just ISOing PoD at the moment.

DM-PoD interaction doesn't look 100% genuine. Pod has been on DM's case since Day 1. I've seen this in Stellaria and Frinckles when they were wolves with me, and the votes and the case seemed unncessarily prolonged without good developing (progressing) evidence or case about their suspicion on the player. Neither has shown 'that tone' you'd see if you legit suspect someone. Not to mention when PoD was pushing DM, DM did not share the same intensity as he was OMGUSing PoD as he did with me. Maybe I am being paranoid at this point but they feel as if they wanted to distance away from each other especially day 1.

Now that I think about it, my gut feeling (and it is just a gut feeling), PoD is shares alignment as either DM or MM as wolf

In M!DM world = PoD is wolf
In M!MM world = PoD is wolf.

So I guess, what my gut feeling is telling me is PoD is a wolf.


Having said that I feel funny about he whole event around voting Achro to protect Banana/Mac, but I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt and read it favourably towards PoD, rather than in negative light. I'm saying this because as I was ISOing, his reasoning around Achro, Banana and Mac felt weirdly out of coordination, but they ended up making sense as I read more. To this end, these posts made me townread PoD.


So man, I don't know about PoD. I need time to think.

[ikarusdk]

[QUOTE=Arrow;990704]

Spoiler : Calling me out :

Long story short: he's very probably scum. I've been thinking this to various extents throughout the entire game, but now I'd say he would need to be very damn convincing for me to townread him at all. My main points against him is that he made lots of "nothingburger" posts early on, talked a bit about mechanics, literally never analyzed ANYONE (unless you count analyzing Kuti as a jester lol) and fits in pretty much any scum team you could ever think of. I'm going to ISO him to refresh my own memory and to make sure I haven't missed anything; take what you will from this.

Spoiler : Arrow ISO analysis :

ARROW ISO START

The first 8 posts are a whole lot of nothing. Hello world, favorite holiday is halloween, wow you were active, valentine's cards (honestly this post did something to me personally lol but it's not game-related, game-wise it's nothing/"fluff"), "STOP POKING ME!", speculating there isnt more than 2-3 neutrals (that's not exactly insightful lol), music, says he got lost in activity.



Self-meta /shrug

"Banana feels like lazy town" - okay, understandable take (I kinda had the same hunch on D1), but then I'm a little surprised he never said anything at all about him or people pushing him. This post is literally the only occurence of him talking about Banana, apart from this post in reaction to Stellaria's hydra stuff:


Which is terribly weak and strange, considering Banana was literally the D1 lynch. It's not like there was nothing to say, nobody to question, etc.

"Achro is putting in some pressure, which for day 1, seems scummy to me" - That's just a culture clash thing because games in very old days (as in, before I even joined the site) were different and people couldn't care less about D1, so that's NAI

And then he voices a gut townread on Ikarus, which is like, sure.




This post is in reaction to me asking this:



"Achro feels scummy to me"... well okay, thank you very much? Considering I was going back and forth with Achro at the time (or rather, had just finished doing so), there was a lot to say about it, there was matter for analysis. This is almost textually saying "I don't want to analyze".

"PoD may be flying under the radar" - okay, why? This is really just a "hi, I exist, I did something" post with zero interest in actually solving the game. It's like he only bothered to reply to my questions for the sake of shutting me up XD. If he had lots of solvy posts elsewhere, I could perhaps see it as just not being warmed up for FM yet, but considering his lack of ANY of those posts, this is scummy as hell.


More posts, just one-liners pointing out some stuff without analyzing anything, giving any reads, or God forbid, push anybody...



I'm just quoting this because it's probably one of the most significant posts of his ISO, which is telling, considering how empty and weak it is.
Calling Achro jestery - I hadn't noticed this before, but it seems he just picked "calling people jesters" as his gimmick to appear to do something lol (cf. calling Kuti jester)


Arrow mistakenly says Martin claimed medium (instead of Banana), /shrug



Progression on Achro from jester to I believe him: nonexistent
Progression on Ikarus: nonexistent, literally just said it was a gut read earlier and there's nothing else about it (note that this looks kinda good for Ikarus, assuming wolf Arrow, since it's unlikely he picked a teammate as his only voiced read)

The rest is just mechanical blah blah again, no solviness, no analysis


One last interesting post:



This is actually the most solvy/analytic post he's ever made... and per normal standards, I'd say this lacks pursuing the goal of actually solving Debbie, like it lacks any form of pressure, further questioning, etc. It's like he doesn't feel the need or desire to gain any new information; this desire is completely absent from his entire ISO.


Overall, Arrow is the incarnation of "information instead of analysis" (IIOA) of the low-posting style (which is apparently not mentioned in the mafiascum article lol but still). Town wants to solve the game, to gain information, and that is true for newbies or "bad players" as well, just because that's the very nature of the game. I see NONE of this with Arrow.

Yeah, Arrow is just scum lol.

@ikarusdk there we go

Also I just saw this:

I don't know. Maybe my handling of reports (and thus having full information all the time) is crippling me here, but the truth is, you can look back at my meta and I've never been a strong forum mafia player without solid information. It doesn't help work slammed me this week with a surprise fire (that should've been mentioned months ago) but the fact is that I'm not good at a lot of this analysis, at least at the timeframes needed. I get up from the night, see 300 posts, and get paralyzed with indecision about how to analyze them all.

If I knew how to read/analyze people in FM I would. Honestly I probably shouldn't even have signed up because its not fair to the other players for me to be this inactive.

Beyond that, looking at the role list, I'd say MM/Ikarus is one of my scum votes. Achro is neutral working on his wincon. The reason I flipped on Achro is because I didn't foresee two Jesters and had Kuti as a lock for that. Obviously a bad read there.

Shit happens and work can get busy more than usual sometimes, so I completely understand. Don't feel bad about joining this game. EVER.

[ikarusdk]

[QUOTE=ikarusdk;990707]

[SPOILER=Calling me out]

Shit happens and work can get busy more than usual sometimes, so I completely understand. Don't feel bad about joining this game. EVER.

ehhhh meant to reply to @Arrow

[ikarusdk]

I'm gonna go to bed, but I'll look into PoD-Wiisp more tomorrow, also decide if leaving Arrow till we solve those two is a better idea or if we can afford to lynch Arrow before them.

[Wiisp]

The last time the group tried to align me with a wolf, they lost the game. If u think I'm thag obviously aligned with someone who hasn't flipped yet, than u should be telling yourself that you are wrong

Gth Pod/Arrow/DM

I haven't even begun to think of an MM team but I also don't think it would be different

[Wiisp]

Also u guys love to all post when I'm asleep

[Wiisp]

Also when has their been an opportunity to really kill DM?

[ikarusdk]

I was just realising this though after re reading DM.

From T!DM POV, if ikarus is wolf - MM doesn't have to be, because I lied about carol - which...as much as it saddens for me to say this because it somewhat contradicts what I said in my big wall, makes sense about his day 3, why I'm up there with MM.

I am trying to be as transparent here because as I am reflecting back on the whole situation, I simply do not want to mislynch anyone right now, because we can only afford 1 mislynch.

Having said this, if DM is indeed a mislynch, we only have to lynch MM the next day, because there is no other possible way MM is not a wolf in that situation FMPOV.

I would appreciate my townreads input on this because people need to help solve this, especially ultra who has been town cleared.

Help me. How likely do you think DM was pulling thr gambit I was talking about. Or is it simply that DM distrusts me that much from our sod2 interaction that he is willing to call the whole carol a lie.

[Dark Magician]

I am just ISOing PoD at the moment.

DM-PoD interaction doesn't look 100% genuine. Pod has been on DM's case since Day 1. I've seen this in Stellaria and Frinckles when they were wolves with me, and the votes and the case seemed unncessarily prolonged without good developing (progressing) evidence or case about their suspicion on the player. Neither has shown 'that tone' you'd see if you legit suspect someone. Not to mention when PoD was pushing DM, DM did not share the same intensity as he was OMGUSing PoD as he did with me. Maybe I am being paranoid at this point but they feel as if they wanted to distance away from each other especially day 1.

Now that I think about it, my gut feeling (and it is just a gut feeling), PoD is shares alignment as either DM or MM as wolf

In M!DM world = PoD is wolf
In M!MM world = PoD is wolf.

So I guess, what my gut feeling is telling me is PoD is a wolf.


Having said that I feel funny about he whole event around voting Achro to protect Banana/Mac, but I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt and read it favourably towards PoD, rather than in negative light. I'm saying this because as I was ISOing, his reasoning around Achro, Banana and Mac felt weirdly out of coordination, but they ended up making sense as I read more. To this end, these posts made me townread PoD.


So man, I don't know about PoD. I need time to think.

If PoD is mafia, then yeah the interaction was informed that can TMI.
If PoD is town, the interaction was borderline pure because I literally can’t give TMI because I am NOT informed.

[Dark Magician]

The last time the group tried to align me with a wolf, they lost the game. If u think I'm thag obviously aligned with someone who hasn't flipped yet, than u should be telling yourself that you are wrong

Gth Pod/Arrow/DM

I haven't even begun to think of an MM team but I also don't think it would be different

….
Is this a real read?
Why would both me and PoD be wolves.

[Dark Magician]

Also when has their been an opportunity to really kill DM?

Day 1.
I was hoping I could make it clear I am uninformed afterwards and you realize I can’t be a group wolf.

[Dark Magician]

If your group wolf DK is like damn though would it have killed you to not go for me, an easy elimination as shown day 1.

I showed why I was town to the dead players and they acknowledged it.
Even MM admitted I was more Townie in dead chat.

[Wiisp]

Day 1.
I was hoping I could make it clear I am uninformed afterwards and you realize I can’t be a group wolf.

U keep saying things like this like it means anything, why can't u be with Pod?