S-FM 352: ★ Silent Night 2 ★

[Stellaria]

I wanna vote and just end this guy but maybe he'll spew more for us lmfao

[Stellaria]

[QUOTE=Arrow;990704]

Spoiler : Calling me out :

Long story short: he's very probably scum. I've been thinking this to various extents throughout the entire game, but now I'd say he would need to be very damn convincing for me to townread him at all. My main points against him is that he made lots of "nothingburger" posts early on, talked a bit about mechanics, literally never analyzed ANYONE (unless you count analyzing Kuti as a jester lol) and fits in pretty much any scum team you could ever think of. I'm going to ISO him to refresh my own memory and to make sure I haven't missed anything; take what you will from this.

Spoiler : Arrow ISO analysis :

ARROW ISO START

The first 8 posts are a whole lot of nothing. Hello world, favorite holiday is halloween, wow you were active, valentine's cards (honestly this post did something to me personally lol but it's not game-related, game-wise it's nothing/"fluff"), "STOP POKING ME!", speculating there isnt more than 2-3 neutrals (that's not exactly insightful lol), music, says he got lost in activity.



Self-meta /shrug

"Banana feels like lazy town" - okay, understandable take (I kinda had the same hunch on D1), but then I'm a little surprised he never said anything at all about him or people pushing him. This post is literally the only occurence of him talking about Banana, apart from this post in reaction to Stellaria's hydra stuff:


Which is terribly weak and strange, considering Banana was literally the D1 lynch. It's not like there was nothing to say, nobody to question, etc.

"Achro is putting in some pressure, which for day 1, seems scummy to me" - That's just a culture clash thing because games in very old days (as in, before I even joined the site) were different and people couldn't care less about D1, so that's NAI

And then he voices a gut townread on Ikarus, which is like, sure.




This post is in reaction to me asking this:



"Achro feels scummy to me"... well okay, thank you very much? Considering I was going back and forth with Achro at the time (or rather, had just finished doing so), there was a lot to say about it, there was matter for analysis. This is almost textually saying "I don't want to analyze".

"PoD may be flying under the radar" - okay, why? This is really just a "hi, I exist, I did something" post with zero interest in actually solving the game. It's like he only bothered to reply to my questions for the sake of shutting me up XD. If he had lots of solvy posts elsewhere, I could perhaps see it as just not being warmed up for FM yet, but considering his lack of ANY of those posts, this is scummy as hell.


More posts, just one-liners pointing out some stuff without analyzing anything, giving any reads, or God forbid, push anybody...



I'm just quoting this because it's probably one of the most significant posts of his ISO, which is telling, considering how empty and weak it is.
Calling Achro jestery - I hadn't noticed this before, but it seems he just picked "calling people jesters" as his gimmick to appear to do something lol (cf. calling Kuti jester)


Arrow mistakenly says Martin claimed medium (instead of Banana), /shrug



Progression on Achro from jester to I believe him: nonexistent
Progression on Ikarus: nonexistent, literally just said it was a gut read earlier and there's nothing else about it (note that this looks kinda good for Ikarus, assuming wolf Arrow, since it's unlikely he picked a teammate as his only voiced read)

The rest is just mechanical blah blah again, no solviness, no analysis


One last interesting post:



This is actually the most solvy/analytic post he's ever made... and per normal standards, I'd say this lacks pursuing the goal of actually solving Debbie, like it lacks any form of pressure, further questioning, etc. It's like he doesn't feel the need or desire to gain any new information; this desire is completely absent from his entire ISO.


Overall, Arrow is the incarnation of "information instead of analysis" (IIOA) of the low-posting style (which is apparently not mentioned in the mafiascum article lol but still). Town wants to solve the game, to gain information, and that is true for newbies or "bad players" as well, just because that's the very nature of the game. I see NONE of this with Arrow.

Yeah, Arrow is just scum lol.

@ikarusdk there we go

Also I just saw this:

I don't know. Maybe my handling of reports (and thus having full information all the time) is crippling me here, but the truth is, you can look back at my meta and I've never been a strong forum mafia player without solid information. It doesn't help work slammed me this week with a surprise fire (that should've been mentioned months ago) but the fact is that I'm not good at a lot of this analysis, at least at the timeframes needed. I get up from the night, see 300 posts, and get paralyzed with indecision about how to analyze them all.

If I knew how to read/analyze people in FM I would. Honestly I probably shouldn't even have signed up because its not fair to the other players for me to be this inactive.

Beyond that, looking at the role list, I'd say MM/Ikarus is one of my scum votes. Achro is neutral working on his wincon. The reason I flipped on Achro is because I didn't foresee two Jesters and had Kuti as a lock for that. Obviously a bad read there.

maybe you should just replace out

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Well, it would appear I am unable to rest at the moment due to unfortunate circumstances, and I have the game in mind anyway, so might as well come back a little xD.

[Removed the broken quote]

I don't know. Maybe my handling of reports (and thus having full information all the time) is crippling me here, but the truth is, you can look back at my meta and I've never been a strong forum mafia player without solid information. It doesn't help work slammed me this week with a surprise fire (that should've been mentioned months ago) but the fact is that I'm not good at a lot of this analysis, at least at the timeframes needed. I get up from the night, see 300 posts, and get paralyzed with indecision about how to analyze them all.

If I knew how to read/analyze people in FM I would. Honestly I probably shouldn't even have signed up because its not fair to the other players for me to be this inactive.

Beyond that, looking at the role list, I'd say MM/Ikarus is one of my scum votes. Achro is neutral working on his wincon. The reason I flipped on Achro is because I didn't foresee two Jesters and had Kuti as a lock for that. Obviously a bad read there.

That part about work sucks lol. As for your skill level, I wouldn't be so harsh towards yourself. It's not like you have zero mafia experience, so it shouldn't be that difficult for you to get into analysis if you want to, just by looking at some FM theory outside of games, or even asking around if you want; I'm sure lots of people would be glad to discuss! That said, if you just don't feel like any of that can be fun, noone's twisting your arm . Also, this game is particularly active, especially for a not so big one; it was easy to lose track of stuff on D1. As for feeling bad for playing, nah, there's absolutely no point, and I don't think anyone is holding it against you; it's not like you're not trying at all or are trolling, after all ^^

/part disregarding alignments

As for the rest of your stuff, sorry, but I still think you're scum, and I think it'd basically take like Ultra claiming to have a green cop check on you for me to change my mind lol. Sorry :P

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I wanna vote and just end this guy but maybe he'll spew more for us lmfao

Uh lol

Considering how little leeway we have due to numbers, town needs to focus on a single scum, and I'm pretty sure the idea here is to lynch DM (or, I guess from your point of view, assuming you're town [which I believe], lynching between Ikarus/MM/DM). If we magically got everyone to want to lynch Arrow, I would probably hop on (despite DM being more of an assured scum lynch due to the carol, I'm fairly confident Arrow also is scum lol), but I doubt that's on the order of the day, considering there's a carol to be solved - and that's the optimal course of action.

I'm actually unsure of where your thoughts are at right now. It feels like Ikarus and myself advanced a lot publicly, but I haven't seen your progression lately. Could you explain your stance regarding the worldbuilding that's been going on (in other words, what's your world?)

[Stellaria]

Uh lol

Considering how little leeway we have due to numbers, town needs to focus on a single scum, and I'm pretty sure the idea here is to lynch DM (or, I guess from your point of view, assuming you're town [which I believe], lynching between Ikarus/MM/DM). If we magically got everyone to want to lynch Arrow, I would probably hop on (despite DM being more of an assured scum lynch due to the carol, I'm fairly confident Arrow also is scum lol), but I doubt that's on the order of the day, considering there's a carol to be solved - and that's the optimal course of action.

I'm actually unsure of where your thoughts are at right now. It feels like Ikarus and myself advanced a lot publicly, but I haven't seen your progression lately. Could you explain your stance regarding the worldbuilding that's been going on (in other words, what's your world?)

This post wasn't about Arrow, it was about DM

[Stellaria]

Those posts are 8 minutes apart.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I was just realising this though after re reading DM.

From T!DM POV, if ikarus is wolf - MM doesn't have to be, because I lied about carol - which...as much as it saddens for me to say this because it somewhat contradicts what I said in my big wall, makes sense about his day 3, why I'm up there with MM.

I am trying to be as transparent here because as I am reflecting back on the whole situation, I simply do not want to mislynch anyone right now, because we can only afford 1 mislynch.

Having said this, if DM is indeed a mislynch, we only have to lynch MM the next day, because there is no other possible way MM is not a wolf in that situation FMPOV.

I would appreciate my townreads input on this because people need to help solve this, especially ultra who has been town cleared.

Help me. How likely do you think DM was pulling thr gambit I was talking about. Or is it simply that DM distrusts me that much from our sod2 interaction that he is willing to call the whole carol a lie.

I mean, who got the carol, then? It can't be a dead, because the dead would have told us (and DM out of everyone would know). It's assuming scum!you got the carol and manipulated it to give a fake result and masterplanned all of this, and just town!you receiving a real carol, are two equally likely possibilities, which is... not true. Besides, and more importantly imo, the progression to go from "MM is scum!!" to "Ikarus and MM are equal possibilities" is lacking. I guess the rupture is especially apparent to me because I was in dead chat last night and he acted in the former way without ever reacting to my long conversation to solve with Martin, which could have been a valid reason to reconsider his scumread on me, but it didn't happen at all (hence me having no trouble just locking him as scum here).

[Stellaria]

but since you asked here's my world

Nah it could be you.
Idk who the group wolves are.

dude is just outing himself as town traitor, so like, it's worthless to try to pair him up with anyone because he doesn't know who his partners are

So that just leaves me with Dark Magician as lock-scum and I have to seek and find a pair of scum from the leftovers. In my head, that's gotta be between you (MM), PoD, Wisp, and Arrow.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

This post wasn't about Arrow, it was about DM

Then I am even more confused. Why did you quote Arrow's post, and why would you be telling DM to replace out lol

[Stellaria]

Then I am even more confused. Why did you quote Arrow's post, and why would you be telling DM to replace out lol

flip them around. I'm telling Arrow to swap out. and I'm saying that DM is spewing and I want more

[Marshmallow Marshall]

but since you asked here's my world



dude is just outing himself as town traitor, so like, it's worthless to try to pair him up with anyone because he doesn't know who his partners are

So that just leaves me with Dark Magician as lock-scum and I have to seek and find a pair of scum from the leftovers. In my head, that's gotta be between you (MM), PoD, Wisp, and Arrow.

Traitor is not part of the role list, making your point moot as far as I can tell. Besides, DM/Wisp interactions reaaally look SvS. I'm not sold here tbh. I think he's really just plain scum; as for the post you quoted, it's just saying "I don't know who the wolves are because I'm town", which isn't exactly revolutionary lol

[Stellaria]

am I seeing things right? like, am I the only one seeing this? Does nobody see DM is outed scum? now I'm confused why you're confused

[Stellaria]

Traitor is not part of the role list, making your point moot as far as I can tell. Besides, DM/Wisp interactions reaaally look SvS. I'm not sold here tbh. I think he's really just plain scum; as for the post you quoted, it's just saying "I don't know who the wolves are because I'm town", which isn't exactly revolutionary lol

Yeah and neither is Mediumizer but nobody is batting an eye about that one, are they

[Marshmallow Marshall]

flip them around. I'm telling Arrow to swap out. and I'm saying that DM is spewing and I want more

OH

Sorry, I'm just stupid XD. (Don't think Arrow needs to swap out at all, but at least your posts make sense now lol)

[Stellaria]

Like, understand something for me. I don't see a world in which this Dark Magician is claiming to be traitor just to throw us off. I'm convinced the dude's just given up. Like, he didn't even bother trying to case you and mechanically he has absolutely no reason not to do that unless you are exactly his partner and he'd rather be the one to die. In which case, he's still scum and you're still on the suspect list.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

am I seeing things right? like, am I the only one seeing this? Does nobody see DM is outed scum? now I'm confused why you're confused

I mean, I agree DM is outed scum, but your reasoning is strange, hence I'm trying to grasp it because we have more than DM to lynch...

Yeah and neither is Mediumizer but nobody is batting an eye about that one, are they

Medium exists, though, so it's "a little twist", as the setup says. There's nothing remotely connected to lost wolves in the setup page, and besides, it'd make the game really different from the original Silent Night setup (which didn't have any lost wolves).

[Stellaria]

the main reason I'm seeing it that way is because he's basically admitting to it

[Stellaria]

well, actually, it's pretty much the only reason

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Like, understand something for me. I don't see a world in which this Dark Magician is claiming to be traitor just to throw us off. I'm convinced the dude's just given up. Like, he didn't even bother trying to case you and mechanically he has absolutely no reason not to do that unless you are exactly his partner and he'd rather be the one to die. In which case, he's still scum and you're still on the suspect list.

While I am happy to see you want to lynch DM and encourage you to do so, I feel like you're not reading the same game as me lol. DM did not claim traitor anywhere, he's just... scum

[Stellaria]

I made it clear I can go either way here.

Day 1.
I was hoping I could make it clear I am uninformed afterwards and you realize I can’t be a group wolf.

If your group wolf DK is like damn though would it have killed you to not go for me, an easy elimination as shown day 1.

I showed why I was town to the dead players and they acknowledged it.
Even MM admitted I was more Townie in dead chat.

Look at the wordings of these posts though MM. He's talking about "group wolves" like everyone in the game knows it's a traitor game. I'm p sure he just fucked up

[Dark Magician]

Idk I only know that right now for a fact I know I am on my team.

[Stellaria]

Like I think he's in his head thinking "man maybe I can buy myself some cred if they could just buy that I'm not a group wolf" and forgot that the setup is partly closed

[Dark Magician]

There is Ultra that has been town cleared and Stellaria is likely town.

[Stellaria]

Idk I only know that right now for a fact I know I am on my team.

bro what 💀

[Stellaria]

someone get this man a dark magic lawyer lmfaooo

[Dark Magician]

Like I think he's in his head thinking "man maybe I can buy myself some cred if they could just buy that I'm not a group wolf" and forgot that the setup is partly closed

DK/MM being a wolf proves I shouldn’t be execution.

[Dark Magician]

While I am happy to see you want to lynch DM and encourage you to do so, I feel like you're not reading the same game as me lol. DM did not claim traitor anywhere, he's just... scum

Stellaria why did you have to do that.
You better be town.

[Stellaria]

^ i think the fact that he clearly doesn't care about spew also indicates that he knows no partners

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Look at the wordings of these posts though MM. He's talking about "group wolves" like everyone in the game knows it's a traitor game. I'm p sure he just fucked up

I... okay, I must admit he does say that in a very weird manner lol

That doesn't explain the SvS interactions with Wisp, though. And besides, if there's actually a traitor in this game in spite of the setup, I am sueing Frinckles post-game lol because it's legit nowhere. I get what you mean now though, but... like, to me, it's as if you were saying he's actually solo cultist.

I am glad to see you actually tried figuring things out by yourself and wanted to solve, though, because this reaffirms my townread on you, ironically enough; I don't think scum ever fakes such a strange reasoning that doesn't fit with the setup, considering that's entirely useless from a scum perspective xD.

[Stellaria]

Stellaria why did you have to do that.
You better be town.

aaaaand he practically just admitted it, can we go home now?

[Dark Magician]

I don’t know shit I’ve been uninformed and helping town and even giving you stuff from dead chat.

Leave me alone and vote the real group wolf in DK/MM

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Idk I only know that right now for a fact I know I am on my team.

what

What is even this statement lol
Are you trying to cause a bug in our brains or something? We're not AIs XD

[Stellaria]

tip for next time DM, if you're in a 1v1 carol with someone, just focus on the other caroled first, then go for the carolee. You jumped the gun way too hard and got caught in a corner

[Dark Magician]

I... okay, I must admit he does say that in a very weird manner lol

That doesn't explain the SvS interactions with Wisp, though. And besides, if there's actually a traitor in this game in spite of the setup, I am sueing Frinckles post-game lol because it's legit nowhere. I get what you mean now though, but... like, to me, it's as if you were saying he's actually solo cultist.

I am glad to see you actually tried figuring things out by yourself and wanted to solve, though, because this reaffirms my townread on you, ironically enough; I don't think scum ever fakes such a strange reasoning that doesn't fit with the setup, considering that's entirely useless from a scum perspective xD.

Maybe you’re a wolf with Wisp.
There is nothing that doesn’t still make you two potentially wolf aligned.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I don’t know shit I’ve been uninformed and helping town and even giving you stuff from dead chat.

Leave me alone and vote the real group wolf in DK/MM

OH SO YOU ARE CLAIMING THIRD PARTY EVIL AFTER ALL HUH

[Wiisp]

I wanna vote and just end this guy but maybe he'll spew more for us lmfao

I'm good, thanks
Let's not end this day phase early just in case

[Stellaria]

OH SO YOU ARE CLAIMING THIRD PARTY EVIL AFTER ALL HUH

WAIT HOLD ON WTF

[Dark Magician]

tip for next time DM, if you're in a 1v1 carol with someone, just focus on the other caroled first, then go for the carolee. You jumped the gun way too hard and got caught in a corner

But I’m uninformed therefore I’m not the correct execution here.

[Stellaria]

who the f*** calls them "group wolves" as a serial killer though??? like, if you're serial killer, why not just call them wolves?

[Wiisp]

Maybe you’re a wolf with Wisp.
There is nothing that doesn’t still make you two potentially wolf aligned.

Who hasn't basically attacked me this game, and MM wouldve gunned more me yesterday if not for the carousel

[Stellaria]

Who hasn't basically attacked me this game, and MM wouldve gunned more me yesterday if not for the carousel

carousel

wisp outed wolf

[Dark Magician]

Who hasn't basically attacked me this game, and MM wouldve gunned more me yesterday if not for the carousel

They sorta did though?

[Wiisp]

But I’m uninformed therefore I’m not the correct execution here.

So ur claiming a second 3rd party and we also have id say 3 wolves, how is town supposed to win this lol

[Dark Magician]

MM had clear intent to vote both of us Wiisp.
Me more so then you.

[Wiisp]

carousel

wisp outed wolf

What

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Actually, that's bloody horrible if it's true, because it would probably mean there are still 3 mafia + DM + Achro, leaving us with 5 town? Actually, that just makes no sense lol. Besides, Achro's claim makes for a pretty neat all-around solo neutral for setup design. No, you're probably just very standard mafia, but this is confusing as heck XD

[Stellaria]

Dark Magician what... exactly are you claiming here?

[Dark Magician]

So ur claiming a second 3rd party and we also have id say 3 wolves, how is town supposed to win this lol

All I’m claiming is that I’m not Informed.
Take that as you will.

[Wiisp]

I mean there doesn't exist any s/s interactions with anyone cause I'm not a wolf

[Stellaria]

Actually, that's bloody horrible if it's true, because it would probably mean there are still 3 mafia + DM + Achro, leaving us with 5 town? Actually, that just makes no sense lol. Besides, Achro's claim makes for a pretty neat all-around solo neutral for setup design. No, you're probably just very standard mafia, but this is confusing as heck XD

on the one hand, it makes sense because hammer got activated

on the other hand, it makes no sense because there's only been one kill each night