S-FM 327 : Last Hope

[Lumi]

Frinckles

theoneceko
Oberon
OzyWho
Varcron
ZZorange
Yuesford

Marshmallow Marshall

Numbertwo
PQRnHack
blinkskater
LagAttack
CRichardForumLies
WrathCyber

----------------------

There you go, scum is in the bottom half.

Apparently trying to read people as a new player makes you scum, whereas hardly posting as a new player makes you not scum.

Why did you say Oberon is 90% town

[Oberon]

Are you sure you don't need to step away from the thread?

good point

[CRichardForumLies]

all of them lol

Cool I hope you're correct.
Even if it means I get killed.
I'm down with dying as village if it means getting scum out.

[Frinckles]

Apparently trying to read people as a new player makes you scum, whereas hardly posting as a new player makes you not scum.

Why did you say Oberon is 90% town

I'm not sure if you're calling yourself a new player, certainly doesn't seem like it.

Regardless, he has no reason to invest so heavily as to become the center of attention while playing scum. He can't powerwolf that hard (<3)

And his angle as mafia (or darkness w/e) wouldn't be templer play.

[Lumi]

Cool I hope you're correct.
Even if it means I get killed.
I'm down with dying as village if it means getting scum out.

Why the blind trust of Frinckles?

I don't know about FM, but the more often than not in the mod, the people that claim they are "down to die as long as XYZ happens" are either scum that are trying to appear town aligned by going along with some lynch plan - with their plan being that their willingness to go along with it makes them appear more town-aligned, therefore sparing them until later in the plan.

OR

They are scum that knows the plan is flawed and so they are fine with it going through because they know it's a bad plan anyway

OR very rarely they are actually town and the plan is fool-proof. A single read from a single person who could just as easily be Shadow is not a fool-proof plan

[Lumi]

I'm not sure if you're calling yourself a new player, certainly doesn't seem like it.

Regardless, he has no reason to invest so heavily as to become the center of attention while playing scum. He can't powerwolf that hard (<3)

And his angle as mafia (or darkness w/e) wouldn't be templer play.

This is my first game of forum mafia ever

[Frinckles]

Why the blind trust of Frinckles?

I don't know about FM, but the more often than not in the mod, the people that claim they are "down to die as long as XYZ happens" are either scum that are trying to appear town aligned by going along with some lynch plan - with their plan being that their willingness to go along with it makes them appear more town-aligned, therefore sparing them until later in the plan.

OR

They are scum that knows the plan is flawed and so they are fine with it going through because they know it's a bad plan anyway

OR very rarely they are actually town and the plan is fool-proof. A single read from a single person who could just as easily be Shadow is not a fool-proof plan

why don't you blindly trust me?

[Frinckles]

This is my first game of forum mafia ever

neat

[Frinckles]

why don't you blindly trust me?

I suppose though, you take less issue with my reads and more with Richard's response to them; Which makes sense.

Hmmm.

[Lumi]

why don't you blindly trust me?

Because ignoring all reads, there's a 31% chance you're scum

[Lumi]

I suppose though, you take less issue with my reads and more with Richard's response to them; Which makes sense.

Hmmm.

Also, yes, this was my point - they seemed too okay with just being labeled as scum by you

[Frinckles]

Why the blind trust of Frinckles?

I don't know about FM, but the more often than not in the mod, the people that claim they are "down to die as long as XYZ happens" are either scum that are trying to appear town aligned by going along with some lynch plan - with their plan being that their willingness to go along with it makes them appear more town-aligned, therefore sparing them until later in the plan.

OR

They are scum that knows the plan is flawed and so they are fine with it going through because they know it's a bad plan anyway

OR very rarely they are actually town and the plan is fool-proof. A single read from a single person who could just as easily be Shadow is not a fool-proof plan

Would it be presumptuous to say you read a bit of forum mafia?

[Frinckles]

Because ignoring all reads, there's a 31% chance you're scum

Good odds.

[theoneceko]

@Frinckles , trust me when i say lagattack is town ;W;

[CRichardForumLies]

Why the blind trust of Frinckles?

I don't know about FM, but the more often than not in the mod, the people that claim they are "down to die as long as XYZ happens" are either scum that are trying to appear town aligned by going along with some lynch plan - with their plan being that their willingness to go along with it makes them appear more town-aligned, therefore sparing them until later in the plan.

OR

They are scum that knows the plan is flawed and so they are fine with it going through because they know it's a bad plan anyway

OR very rarely they are actually town and the plan is fool-proof. A single read from a single person who could just as easily be Shadow is not a fool-proof plan

How am I supposed to know what's more likely in this mod seeing this is the first time I'm playing it?
Thing is I'm a villager and of course I'm hoping Frinckles is town with the game solving PoE.
As villagers don't need to survive to win.

[Frinckles]

@Frinckles , trust me when i say lagattack is town ;W;

Ceko you know I never give my real reads first x_x

[Lumi]

Would it be presumptuous to say you read a bit of forum mafia?

I followed the last FM game, have played a lot of the SC2 mod, a lot of in-person mafia, and have read mafiascum wiki occasionally + a couple of guides

[theoneceko]

Ceko you know I never give my real reads first x_x

long as you don't lynch lagattack im happy

UWU!!!

[Lumi]

Good odds.

Not good odds. Assuming the setup is balanced and that town and shadows both have a 50% winrate - then that means if I blindly trust someone, they have to be right 72% of the time in order for me to have a 50% winrate. But, I'm not working as an outside observer - it's not the probability that you are right at least 72% of the time. No, it's the conditional probability that you are right 72% of the time given that you have a misread on someone that I know with 100% certainty is town.

Maybe you are far better at FM than I am giving you credit for, but I do not think the probability that you are right more than 72% of the time given that you have at least one guaranteed misread is terribly high

[Frinckles]

I followed the last FM game, have played a lot of the SC2 mod, a lot of in-person mafia, and have read mafiascum wiki occasionally + a couple of guides

Word. I was wondering why your lingo was on-point after looking at your ISO. Welcome aboard.

[Lumi]

How am I supposed to know what's more likely in this mod seeing this is the first time I'm playing it?
Thing is I'm a villager and of course I'm hoping Frinckles is town with the game solving PoE.
As villagers don't need to survive to win.

By mod I mean the SC2 mafia arcade game where a game takes place in the span of 20-40 minutes - not FM.

It's everyones first time playing this setup.

My other points about your willingness to go along with the plan still stand

[Frinckles]

Not good odds. Assuming the setup is balanced and that town and shadows both have a 50% winrate - then that means if I blindly trust someone, they have to be right 72% of the time in order for me to have a 50% winrate. But, I'm not working as an outside observer - it's not the probability that you are right at least 72% of the time. No, it's the conditional probability that you are right 72% of the time given that you have a misread on someone that I know with 100% certainty is town.

Maybe you are far better at FM than I am giving you credit for, but I do not think the probability that you are right more than 72% of the time given that you have at least one guaranteed misread is terribly high

I mean good odds for town, because I didn't get scum.

[Lumi]

Word. I was wondering why your lingo was on-point after looking at your ISO. Welcome aboard.

I was told that if I use enough fancy lingo, no one will notice if my reads are garbage ;D

[theoneceko]

Ceko you know I never give my real reads first x_x

what?? no i don't

[Oberon]

im just reading through some older games to tell if "arcade mafia" tells work in FM

[theoneceko]

what?? no i don't

i literally have no clue what your playstyle is. i scumread you in one game and was wrong, then i townread you and was wrong.

[Frinckles]

I was told that if I use enough fancy lingo, no one will notice if my reads are garbage ;D

Good advice.

i literally have no clue what your playstyle is. i scumread you in one game and was wrong, then i townread you and was wrong.

( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

[Frinckles]

gimme 4 minutes to run a quick iso on the others and ill spit out some hot take reads that are a bit more coherent.

[Varcron]

Quite the contrary actually. Varcron is the most suspicious throwing wayward claims about Oberon.

I'd actually like to think the opposite

I am not on the big train and therefore are the least likely to be scum out of all of you.

Scum can very easily follow a big train everyone agrees on, scum can however not so easily follow a one man army on someone.

[Varcron]

then stop hanging so low and acting neurotic. all we gotta do is find out who is town first

I feel as though Oberon is in the position that I am in 90% of games and would have been in this game if not for him acting scummier than me. Not saying he couldn't be scum, but just pointing that out.

[Varcron]

I was humoring Varc's suspicion you are a templar, which makes me think they're more likely village as village tends to dissent from consensus more often than wolves do from my experience.
Except I don't think you're templar.
As it doesn't make sense for you to be towny this early in the game as templar.

Holy shit this is actually accurate af

[Varcron]

gimme 4 minutes to run a quick iso on the others and ill spit out some hot take reads that are a bit more coherent.

What's your take on the Oberon train as well as early day Ceko?

[CRichardForumLies]

Holy shit this is actually accurate af

You'd be surprised how often I've seen this happen before on my home site.
I've found a few villagers because of that.

[Auwt]

you're just sheeping my vote on oberon, but considering this is your very first fm game, i doubt you would bus your scum teammate on day 1 unless you were told to so during night 0 (assuming there is a night 0 @Auwt ; i believe you don't clarify this in the setup)

There was no night 0.

[Frinckles]

What's your take on the Oberon train as well as early day Ceko?

both suck

[Varcron]

You'd be surprised how often I've seen this happen before on my home site.
I've found a few villagers because of that.

I'm stealing that for later games

[Varcron]

both suck

Fantastic

Anything other than that?

[Frinckles]

both suck

well I mean, ceko is playing well. I just mean the whole conundrum is silly.

[Frinckles]

also I whipped this up

[Town Gang]
Theoneceko - 99% town
LagAttack - 95% town
Oberon - 90% town
Zzorange 92% town (2 sassy 4 me)
OzyWho 80% town

[blue's clues]
Varcron 50/50 something
Marshmallow Marshall 50/50 something
PQRnHack ??%

[Probably the bad guys]
CRichardForumLies 49% town
Numbertwo 45% town
Blinkskater *heh* nothin' personal

[Burn with fire Tier (aka probably LHF(Low hanging fruit before you ask what it means))]
Yuesford
WrathCyber

[CRichardForumLies]

There was no night 0.

Ok so mod confirmed shadows didn't chat with each other before D1.
That's good to know.

[Frinckles]

although if you asked me whether wrath's intro seemed authentic..

Sup. How does Villager work? Do we just work together to kill the evil people?

Hmmm.

[Frinckles]

Fantastic

Anything other than that?

oberon seems like lost town and ceko has try hard pants on

[theoneceko]

well I mean, ceko is playing well. I just mean the whole conundrum is silly.

how??? for some reason, your first reads list, which was completely insane because it was different from everyone's elses reads, just made me want to shut my brain off and sheep you. i guess that's my weakness when i don't tunnel so much as town.

please properly explain my playstyle. i want to know where you stand, and right now i simply don't. you're too random for me to put you in any alignment.

[Frinckles]

while im spamming:

Pink Floyd - Breathe in the Air (Long Version) / The Great Gig in the Sky

[theoneceko]

oberon seems like lost town and ceko has try hard pants on

anything else about my play?? i feel like you know it, but won't say what it is

[Lumi]

-unvote

[Lumi]

long as you don't lynch lagattack im happy

UWU!!!

Is this what being pocketed feels like? OWO

[Frinckles]

how??? for some reason, your first reads list, which was completely insane because it was different from everyone's elses reads, just made me want to shut my brain off and sheep you. i guess that's my weakness when i don't tunnel so much as town.

please properly explain my playstyle. i want to know where you stand, and right now i simply don't. you're too random for me to put you in any alignment.

Why I think you're playing well? You're leading the town and forming a towncore, albeit around players you're comfortable with enough to do so. Your tone is pure and it's easy to find you as a town right now.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ my reads are my reads. I went through 9 pages and skimmed the obvious derpiness. And yeah, there's some room for more info to come in from low-posters but, this seems fine atm.

[Frinckles]

Is this what being pocketed feels like? OWO

yup.

but I had moved you out of the scumlist two posts after we started talking.

[theoneceko]

anything else about my play?? i feel like you know it, but won't say what it is

or maybe you just know we're both town. in fact, maybe you think oberon is templar but don't want him lynched bc you're scum. you did something the last game we played together when you were scum. you basically dismissed blink's jester play until only 7 players left, and then blink got lynched UWOWU

i realize im tinfoiling here xD. perhaps i should focus on something else