S-FM 355: Nonstandard Roles 3

[Helz]

Good morning : )

A few thoughts before I catch up

Both Judge and Pacifist are likely not in play given nothing happened centered around yesterdays no-lynch.

Varcron flipping Ghost is very useful. We now have an extremely powerful neutral with an aligned win-con in play. @Varcron Work with town and we will do everything in our power to help your wincon.

Evil Teacher appears likely given no Corruptor glich kill D2 and either of those kills being a Werewolf is very very unlikely. This either means Mafia has failed to kill at all or (more likely) that the Evil Teacher self targeted this time to hit Auwt and Mafia killed Varacron. This would be excellent given it puts the Ghost all the way up the mafias ass for the rest of the game : )

@powerofdeath
Can ghost influence or prevent mafia factional kills in any way?

I would say its more likely than not that the mafia knows who the Evil teacher is and/or who our Fancy Lady is. I would like to open a door to the Mafia to out the Evil Teacher through Cape given they can only specifically kill unaligned players. Its a role that is very specifically a threat to your team and its in both of our interests to eliminate it.

So potential non-towns of:

Evil Teacher
Bounty Hunter
Ghost
Evil Flower Child
Unknown Mafia
Unknown Mafia

This means we are at 3v1v1v7 + a powerful dead neutral utility that is now town aligned.

Cape is the days lynch obviously

-vote Cape90

Spoiler : Auwt read list :

Some kind of a list (in towniness %) :

Helz (100% T)
Luka (80% T)
Huo (75% T)
Oliver (60% T)

Expected scums count : 0-1


------------------------------------------


scumbot - porscha - lily - Varcron (Mostly unsorted, no specific opinion as of today)

Expected scums count : 2


------------------------------------------


DM (45% T)
MM - Martin (40% T)
Mizery (35% T)
Cape (5% T)

Expected scums count : 3-4


------------------------------------------



Hoping this can somehow help later on.

I feel this is useful. I will also say Luka has been consistently one of my town (or very specifically not mafia aligned) reads this game.

Anyways.. Catching up and such.

[Helz]

Oh right evil teacher could have targeted helz and varcron

I feel that self targeting is more likely. Targeting me would limit his kills to only non-town while self targeting would limit his kills to anything but neutral.

[Helz]

Huo Huo and Mr Tail (3): Marshmallow Marshall, MartinGG99, bwcPorscha
oliverz144 (3): bakermir, Huo Huo and Mr Tail, Helz
bakermir (4): oliverz144, Mizery, scumbot5679, Cape90
Marshmallow Marshall (1): Auwt
Cape90 (1): Lilypetal
Skip Day (3): Luka; Dark Magician; Varcron

[Helz]

For the D1 lynch progression two potentials that came to mind-

1- Cape pushing off train from Oliver could reflect an aligned chainsaw play. We now know the Oliver train was clean and 'if' Oliver/Cape team scum exists it would make the bakermir train scum driven.

2- Marshmallow Marshall, MartinGG99, bwcPorscha going off train could be a TMI reaction. If a Mafia was looking at TvT trains they could push off train knowing the bad flip is coming for the town cred after the fact.

[oliverz144]

I just hope cape is the evil flower child xd

something is wrong i can feel it

[Helz]

So from where I am standing there are 7 living town.

Myself and Huo are easy green. I have Luka as solid not Mafia (and am honestly focused on team scum first) and Dark Magician as Town. That leaves 3 town left with 5 scum in a PoE of

MM
Mizery
MartinGG
Scumbot
Oliverz
Lilypetal
Porscha

Pretty comfortable position although we have a problem sorting. Yesterday lynch was dictated with no lynch result. Today it is dictated again and unless something very lucky happens tommorow I have to be lynched.

So 7v3v1v1
Cape gone 7v2v1v1
Me gone 6v2v1v1 with potential 4 kills.

We have an effective sheriff while I live for 1 confirmed check and maybe a Tough Guy or a Soul Mate in play but its not quite so comfortable when you look at the numbers.

[Helz]

Lilly is interesting.

Very few takes in the game with minimal solving. There has been hardline focus on cape even prior to their red check with soft reasoning and a lack of engagement in the game.

Either a town player who just does not particularly care to work for future days or a scum thats showing their lack of desire to solve though their apathy. If it were possible I would lean Neutral Benign but I am not town reading this slot regardless. Its been interesting to see how little focus has gone their way (although that indicator has served me very poorly in my mafia career) and I have seen many games where a non-town focus' down 1 player for an FOS and skates under the radar.

Wish Bakermir was alive to give some meta thoughts.

@Lilypetal
Could you provide a rough reads list so I can have a better idea of where you stand?

[Helz]

To address something that has been brought up a time or three I do not think we can use my bride ability. Although I would see an exact role the fact I have a bounty on me makes it functionally useless unless I am somehow in a 3p lylo or something. No scum would ever accept so the only thing it could accomplish would be taking another townie down with me or leveraging the Bounty Hunters win con.

[Helz]

On MartinGG

I am and will always stay paranoid of them. Its mostly that I expect their range as a player to include how they are playing but I would lean more likely neutral than team scum if they are not town. Specifically how openly they have pushed every player in the game so naturally leads me to that conclusion. As team scum you have to be cautious when pushing less skilled players and that can create holes in your interactions which I do not see out of him.
They are certainly playing as town. Small details like strongly town reading MM and triangulating his reads off them fit very well. Over all I town lean this slot although I do not think I am capable of ever being comfortable with them.

[Helz]

I had the intention of spending more time but my buddy got his car stolen the other day and they just found all his stuff dumped on the side of a road. Gotta run to take care of that and I am running a volunteer crew at the American legion for a construction project. Will follow through with more when I get back but I very much would like to see all players take a stance on all other players. Especially those in my PoE who have not done so yet.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

oh nyo im so scared that you don't find me towny

lol ok

I'm town

if i was a 3p i'd be even LESS invested

I mean, if you actually are town, you're going against your own team's interest by actively refusing to be towny and to do anything productive, like, at all. I'm not dead set on you being evil, I just think you're extremely strange and can't be simply left alone. In fact, if I had to bet on a likely Bounty Hunter slot, I'd go with yours, since you seem to be waiting for the game to advance.

@Huo Huo and Mr Tail , you should probably check Lily tonight. It's not like she's going to get killed by scum lol, it achieves basically nothing for them, assuming she's not straight up one of them. That or evil teacher ig

[Dark Magician]

nah im sure there is at least one town vengeful

Is this your claim?

[Dark Magician]

lol ok




I mean, if you actually are town, you're going against your own team's interest by actively refusing to be towny and to do anything productive, like, at all. I'm not dead set on you being evil, I just think you're extremely strange and can't be simply left alone. In fact, if I had to bet on a likely Bounty Hunter slot, I'd go with yours, since you seem to be waiting for the game to advance.

@Huo Huo and Mr Tail , you should probably check Lily tonight. It's not like she's going to get killed by scum lol, it achieves basically nothing for them, assuming she's not straight up one of them. That or evil teacher ig

MM. I honestly think you are letting your bias get to you.
People can post and do stuff however the fuck they want to even if it’s not to your or someone else’s satisfaction.
However Lily did suspect Cape early on so you can’t say they are against town when they have been nothing but right so far.

IMO your pro town if your right and anti town if your wrong.
That’s how I see FM Games.
So that’s why if I ever be wrong I Re-Eval to make sure I’m right.
I’ve been in so many FM games now I’ve gotten the hang of reading others alignments.

I even told you all yesterday Cape was odd and I was right so.

[Dark Magician]

And no MM, my Mizery isn’t Bias here is why.

Mizery + Cape had sus interactions and mentions of each other
Cape + Lily hasn’t.

Mizery is super resistant on voting Cape and even tried to say Evil Teacher is a reason they don’t want to vote Cape and then denied that said reason later.
Lily voted Cape without hesitation.

[oliverz144]

I'm not following any of the mech talk

same haha
never did and never will in any of my games
people make like tiny ass clues and hints and whatever and im supposed to find them

[Dark Magician]

This entire day instead of Mizery voting for Cape they decided to put sus on the person with the check still.

MM please let me know.

Does Mizery as wolf REFUSE to vote and buss their teammate?
If so, this is Mizery!Wolf 100.

[Dark Magician]

lol ok




I mean, if you actually are town, you're going against your own team's interest by actively refusing to be towny and to do anything productive, like, at all. I'm not dead set on you being evil, I just think you're extremely strange and can't be simply left alone. In fact, if I had to bet on a likely Bounty Hunter slot, I'd go with yours, since you seem to be waiting for the game to advance.

@Huo Huo and Mr Tail , you should probably check Lily tonight. It's not like she's going to get killed by scum lol, it achieves basically nothing for them, assuming she's not straight up one of them. That or evil teacher ig

If you don’t want me and Mizery do Lily and Mizery.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Lilly is interesting.

Very few takes in the game with minimal solving. There has been hardline focus on cape even prior to their red check with soft reasoning and a lack of engagement in the game.

Either a town player who just does not particularly care to work for future days or a scum thats showing their lack of desire to solve though their apathy. If it were possible I would lean Neutral Benign but I am not town reading this slot regardless. Its been interesting to see how little focus has gone their way (although that indicator has served me very poorly in my mafia career) and I have seen many games where a non-town focus' down 1 player for an FOS and skates under the radar.

Wish Bakermir was alive to give some meta thoughts.

@Lilypetal
Could you provide a rough reads list so I can have a better idea of where you stand?

You're right, meta would be cool. Aaaand I just realized we have ze power ov ze interwebs! https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...rchid=19096118 that's Lily's ISO in a recent town game (in which Baker was lol).

Is it just me or is this ISO in the same style, but more "rich"? Like, there is this post (link) that's reminiscent of her post against Cape, but it's more detailed: it shows analysis of the player she accuses, there's worldbuilding, etc. Compare it with the only substantial post she has made this game.

[She just voted Zenon in her last post]
zenon should go today

1) her opener is bland, says nothing, and is obviously rushed. v!zenon has more tact in her post spamming whereas zenon this game just went through the motions and posted rly nothing of value and just reacted to things

2) her willingness to SR vikuale but not engage with me just a few posts later when I say the opposite shows she really doesn't care about the vikuale read. A villager seeing someone say the exact opposite especially one that knows me would want to engage with me on why I feel that way

3) her discussion with ezekiel and bakermir very obviously is her playing opportunistically around two villagers having a bit of a misunderstanding/squabble while she figures out in real time how she wants to paint one side as bad while still going "ahhh i could be reading the vibes wrong"

ur welcome

vs

How do I vote on here

I'm going to vote cape for this post lol

Let's break this down

Wolfy self awareness on the "make up some thoughts"

Mentions a claim that imo doesn't matter at all. I read it and went yeah ok w/e. Idk why that's even necessary here

Says miz is town despite miz just throwing out a bunch of nonsensical posts. Not to mention that the LAMIST "omg no one is here when i am" is more often a wolf thing to post

Other read is probs not that AI, but it is kind of a nothing read because it's just a "strange" read

So yeah Cape looks pretty bad here.

The former is analysis, whereas the latter is point-out-y. It lacks the worldbuilding and the obvious solviness of the former.

Also look at this other post from the same game: "so explain why! come on now it's not that hard" --> it's super short but it shows EAGERNESS TO SOLVE. And that was post #321 of that game, during early D1. There is NONE of that from her in our game. She literally went "Oh so I was right, Cape got red checked, yaaayyy" and that's it (if you compare this with her push on Zenon in that other game, she actively argues with people who disagree with her case).

@Helz and @MartinGG99 (pinging you two because you're my two top towns + are good at analyzing), are you seeing what I am here, or am I tunneling?

[Dark Magician]

Martin might be Neutral I still think.

[Luka]

why is it towny in hindsight

Cuz it means nothing coming from a woof
woof wouldve done it the day before for wifom (fun!)

[Dark Magician]

I’m going to stop you right now.


ZENON changes people in game, I’ve played countless games with them.
They force shit on you.

That’s that.

[Dark Magician]

Zenon while a good decent player has such high aggression and the way they push a player is nuts.

[Luka]

lol ok




I mean, if you actually are town, you're going against your own team's interest by actively refusing to be towny and to do anything productive, like, at all. I'm not dead set on you being evil, I just think you're extremely strange and can't be simply left alone. In fact, if I had to bet on a likely Bounty Hunter slot, I'd go with yours, since you seem to be waiting for the game to advance.

@Huo Huo and Mr Tail , you should probably check Lily tonight. It's not like she's going to get killed by scum lol, it achieves basically nothing for them, assuming she's not straight up one of them. That or evil teacher ig

oh no they're calling me out >.<

[Luka]

Zenon while a good decent player has such high aggression and the way they push a player is nuts.

Zenon is so amazing
I love playing with them

[Marshmallow Marshall]

MM. I honestly think you are letting your bias get to you.
People can post and do stuff however the fuck they want to even if it’s not to your or someone else’s satisfaction.
However Lily did suspect Cape early on so you can’t say they are against town when they have been nothing but right so far.

IMO your pro town if your right and anti town if your wrong.
That’s how I see FM Games.
So that’s why if I ever be wrong I Re-Eval to make sure I’m right.
I’ve been in so many FM games now I’ve gotten the hang of reading others alignments.

I even told you all yesterday Cape was odd and I was right so.

Perhaps I am biased. That's why I pinged Helz and Martin. That said, I don't take advice on that from you, considering how you are yourself terribly biased lol. And if I did not play by this rule, I would have buried you ten times over xD

And no MM, my Mizery isn’t Bias here is why.

Mizery + Cape had sus interactions and mentions of each other
Cape + Lily hasn’t.

Mizery is super resistant on voting Cape and even tried to say Evil Teacher is a reason they don’t want to vote Cape and then denied that said reason later.
Lily voted Cape without hesitation.

(Addressing Mizery after the other quote)
Lily barely has any interactions with anyone. By that logic, anyone who'd shut up forever would instantly be town.

This entire day instead of Mizery voting for Cape they decided to put sus on the person with the check still.

MM please let me know.

Does Mizery as wolf REFUSE to vote and buss their teammate?
If so, this is Mizery!Wolf 100.

Mizery is definetly not afraid of bussing, which is why I find her reaction to the Cape push kinda strange if I assume she's scum. It's not like she has any hope of saving Cape lol, nor is it like Huo is remotely lynchable. Hence, I don't really know what to do with Mizery anymore, tbh. (and I know you're dead set on her, you don't have to repeat it)
I am indeed curious about how she thinks Huo could possibly be scum, though, mechanically speaking. Finding Huo not so towny behavior-wise is literally irrelevant if the claim is believable, no?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

they're probably choosing Mizery for the basically-almost-free elimination

actaulyl wait I have the role backwards SMH

Yeah I buy the derpclear even though you don't need it lmao, you're not bounty hunter, congratulations martin

[oliverz144]

-vote cape90

will be back later-ish


Huo Huo is looking good and I don't have any doubts about him or his seemingly coincidental n2 action

i know we have talked a lot about "constructed" posts but this feels sarcastic af xD

[Dark Magician]

i know we have talked a lot about "constructed" posts but this feels sarcastic af xD

Which part?

[Lilypetal]

Lilly is interesting.

Very few takes in the game with minimal solving. There has been hardline focus on cape even prior to their red check with soft reasoning and a lack of engagement in the game.

Either a town player who just does not particularly care to work for future days or a scum thats showing their lack of desire to solve though their apathy. If it were possible I would lean Neutral Benign but I am not town reading this slot regardless. Its been interesting to see how little focus has gone their way (although that indicator has served me very poorly in my mafia career) and I have seen many games where a non-town focus' down 1 player for an FOS and skates under the radar.

Wish Bakermir was alive to give some meta thoughts.

@Lilypetal
Could you provide a rough reads list so I can have a better idea of where you stand?

Sure, if I remember once I'm home ill put my thoughts together although it won't be revolutionary lol

If I don't just ping me again so I remember

[Lilypetal]

You're right, meta would be cool. Aaaand I just realized we have ze power ov ze interwebs! https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...rchid=19096118 that's Lily's ISO in a recent town game (in which Baker was lol).

Is it just me or is this ISO in the same style, but more "rich"? Like, there is this post (link) that's reminiscent of her post against Cape, but it's more detailed: it shows analysis of the player she accuses, there's worldbuilding, etc. Compare it with the only substantial post she has made this game.


vs

The former is analysis, whereas the latter is point-out-y. It lacks the worldbuilding and the obvious solviness of the former.

Also look at this other post from the same game: "so explain why! come on now it's not that hard" --> it's super short but it shows EAGERNESS TO SOLVE. And that was post #321 of that game, during early D1. There is NONE of that from her in our game. She literally went "Oh so I was right, Cape got red checked, yaaayyy" and that's it (if you compare this with her push on Zenon in that other game, she actively argues with people who disagree with her case).

@Helz and @MartinGG99 (pinging you two because you're my two top towns + are good at analyzing), are you seeing what I am here, or am I tunneling?

This is my first game here, the person I joined this game for got mled day 1 while I was asleep, and I intentionally was taking this game easy in the first place. While your read makes sense, it falls into the classic mafia player problem where they don't understand that effort differs from game to game and isn't exactly that AI. Fmpov we are just waiting for a wolf to finally die thus I'm not too pressed to wallpost and find a wolf. I found a wolf and I'm waiting for him to die. Effort comes after

[Dark Magician]

This is my first game here, the person I joined this game for got mled day 1 while I was asleep, and I intentionally was taking this game easy in the first place. While your read makes sense, it falls into the classic mafia player problem where they don't understand that effort differs from game to game and isn't exactly that AI. Fmpov we are just waiting for a wolf to finally die thus I'm not too pressed to wallpost and find a wolf. I found a wolf and I'm waiting for him to die. Effort comes after

+1

[Mizery]

why is it towny in hindsight

"I wish the cop checked me" really isn't something i associate with "townie"

[Mizery]

Huo Huo and Mr Tail (3): Marshmallow Marshall, MartinGG99, bwcPorscha
oliverz144 (3): bakermir, Huo Huo and Mr Tail, Helz
bakermir (4): oliverz144, Mizery, scumbot5679, Cape90
Marshmallow Marshall (1): Auwt
Cape90 (1): Lilypetal
Skip Day (3): Luka; Dark Magician; Varcron

I still think that huo could be the evil teacher even though that requires their other check on D1 to also be a wolf otherwise cape would be dead.

This does imply strongly that Oli is a wolf with cape and that cape voted there to save oli. If his responses haven't been enough for you.

Also think that lilypetal is more likely a wolf based on their positioning on D1.

[Dark Magician]

I still think that huo could be the evil teacher even though that requires their other check on D1 to also be a wolf otherwise cape would be dead.

This does imply strongly that Oli is a wolf with cape and that cape voted there to save oli. If his responses haven't been enough for you.

Also think that lilypetal is more likely a wolf based on their positioning on D1.

But I bet you’ll vote Lily before Oliver.

[Dark Magician]

If for some reason Hau doesn’t check Mizery.
Via Me and Mizery or Mizery and Lily,

I really hope someone at least uses the reveal Mizery’s alignment publicly or something.

[Mizery]

To address something that has been brought up a time or three I do not think we can use my bride ability. Although I would see an exact role the fact I have a bounty on me makes it functionally useless unless I am somehow in a 3p lylo or something. No scum would ever accept so the only thing it could accomplish would be taking another townie down with me or leveraging the Bounty Hunters win con.

I want to emphasize that if helz or the bounty hunter is not killed tomorrow then the bounty hunter can never be killed.

I do think that the bride could have been used yesterday but I Forgot to bring it up, because that would have given us 3 days with either a confirmed wolf or an IC.
IMO it would only be useful right now if you targeted someone in the PoE (my opinion oli or maybe lily if we think she can be the BH rn) and then they also will die tomorrow when we kill you. Evil teacher and Wolves don't really need to kill BH as long as they don't get a second person so we can't rely on them to try and find the BH at night.

[Dark Magician]

I still think that huo could be the evil teacher even though that requires their other check on D1 to also be a wolf otherwise cape would be dead.

This does imply strongly that Oli is a wolf with cape and that cape voted there to save oli. If his responses haven't been enough for you.

Also think that lilypetal is more likely a wolf based on their positioning on D1.

Also.

Lily voted Cape which is absolutely correct.
Cape wasn’t townie and the people who thought so just got misguided.

[Dark Magician]

We could kill Helz tomorrow, I don’t know,

[Dark Magician]

Just to stop Bounty Hunter

[Mizery]

We could kill Helz tomorrow, I don’t know,

it would be best to have someone accept a proposal if we do choose to kill helz because then the day wouldn't be entirely wasted.

It would also be best for that to happen today so that if they do turn out to be village we have more time to work with an IC in the PoE

[Mizery]

Also.

Lily voted Cape which is absolutely correct.
Cape wasn’t townie and the people who thought so just got misguided.

1) A wagon on cape didn't grow so we don't know how lily would have responded to that
2) there are neutrals in the game

[Mizery]

and you seem to not remember that cape was someone i was scumreading as well

[Dark Magician]

If Hau is an Evil Teacher then Mizery confirmed themselves as mafia.

Here is why:
No towns mindset would have called out Hau as Evil Teacher with the thought of Cape not being mafia.
Mizery treated it as if it somehow could make Cape Town. Or at least give them a reason to not vote Cape.
When in reality they probably figured out Hau was Evil Teacher via mafia role or something.

Again, Mizery doesn’t realize this but not only are they already very likely to be mafia, (for me they are for sure mafia) but if Hau flips Evil Teacher it confirms Mizery as Mafia.

[Dark Magician]

it would be best to have someone accept a proposal if we do choose to kill helz because then the day wouldn't be entirely wasted.

It would also be best for that to happen today so that if they do turn out to be village we have more time to work with an IC in the PoE

Hold on you might have a point.

“Bride - During the day, you may give a proposal to another player. If they accept the proposal, you both see each others role and become lover. When one of you die, the other die. This will not affect either of your win conditions. If they deny the proposal, the target will be publicly revealed as someone who denied the proposal. They have 24 hours to accept the proposal.”

If your town then prove me wrong.
Request Helz to make you IC.
As I think you are Mafia Parrot and Oliver is Mafia Vengeful.

[Dark Magician]

1) A wagon on cape didn't grow so we don't know how lily would have responded to that
2) there are neutrals in the game

1)Lily reaction to me thinking them be neutral didn’t come from a Neutral IMO.
2)If your Mafia, Lily is just always town anyway lol and I hope MM doesn’t get any bias from it.

[Lilypetal]

I still think that huo could be the evil teacher even though that requires their other check on D1 to also be a wolf otherwise cape would be dead.

This does imply strongly that Oli is a wolf with cape and that cape voted there to save oli. If his responses haven't been enough for you.

Also think that lilypetal is more likely a wolf based on their positioning on D1.

How is my positioning wolfy, especially with the context that I was asleep and not present at eod and parked on a wolf?

You said this before day 2 and I told you then as well, so tell me again why it's wolfy

[Dark Magician]

and you seem to not remember that cape was someone i was scumreading as well

Then why didn’t you vote them?
There is a difference between you and me.

[Mizery]

Again DM keeps shouting out his misrepresentation of my ISO

In no way did i say that cape was town and therefore I will not vote him because Huo is Evil teacher

What I did say was that Huo could be evil teacher and their claim of grave digger doesn't clear him.
I don't think Huo would take a gamble and push on some rando if they were evil teacher that they didn't know the alignment of though, so in this unlikely scenario they would have had to have checked two people they thought were mafia and decided to claim it.
Huo not checking in between me anad DM though can imply more that they are evil if they think both DM and I are village and still wanted to get a kill off.

I'm not clearing Huo til we get an evil teacher flip.

[Mizery]

Then why didn’t you vote them?
There is a difference between you and me.

Your whole ISO is contradictory and your fixation on me if you're actually town is probably the worst gamethrow that will give the wolves an easy win.

The way you come in on D2 and pretend you have reds on three people only to retract one of them and when one is pulled from Huo's red check in thread.
For you to keep claiming that you have a soft red on me by mech only to drop it when you realize I'm not falling for it
But to keep pushing me regardless and tunneling on me as if you're too stubborn to admit you're wrong

[Mizery]

I still think MM is wolfy but