S-FM 352: ★ Silent Night 2 ★

[TheBananaBaroness]

I mean...

[TheBananaBaroness]

(who's gonna tell them??)

[Stellaria]

What's the probability of a lone hydra being mafia? Anyone know of any precedent?

[macdougall]

the current vc isn't ideal

is anyone reading Marshall town? if so why?

[macdougall]

What's the probability of a lone hydra being mafia? Anyone know of any precedent?

... isn't the probability just the same as any other slot?

[TheBananaBaroness]

What's the probability of a lone hydra being mafia? Anyone know of any precedent?

133.7 percent

[Stellaria]

I meant from the perspective of a game host. Is it likely for a host to make a lone hydra a mafia?

[macdougall]

I meant from the perspective of a game host. Is it likely for a host to make a lone hydra a mafia?

if the game hosts follows the general decorum of randomising the team then ... yes?

is frinckles likely not to?

[TheBananaBaroness]

kk my friend is ready to play now so I'll be back later, peace homies <3

[Dark Magician]

Hey @Toadette here, gl hf everyone

Damn is it a 5 man Hydra or some shit?

[Dark Magician]

3.5

So 3 and the New Person.
Gotcha.

[Stellaria]

if the game hosts follows the general decorum of randomising the team then ... yes?

is frinckles likely not to?

I've ran games where roles were tied to alignments.

[Dark Magician]

Where was I? Where my town at?

Can this die please.


Also @Wiisp
When you said you scum read me and mac do you believe us to both be group scum or is it just you think we both have been individually wolfy?

[Dark Magician]

Now Mac do you want to tell me why you town read me or would you like me to just leave my vote on you and you soft claim wolf?

[Dark Magician]

If anyone else would like to give a read on me I’ll be happy to take it regardless of what it might be, as long as you have a reason for it.

Achro town reads me, although it might be biased because I have blessing ability but they do have reason other then that.
Max doesn’t have any reason at all to town read me and their lead up should have been a wolf read from what they said about me.
They never once looked at a post of mine and said “This is town” or “this gives off town vibes” nothing,
They instead called me posts bad AND even referred to me as wolfy.

Wisp’s reason to wolf read me is poor and the timing for the read is off but it’s still better than Mac’s town read.

MM’s read is understandable, Achro did say previously they didn’t see a directly certainty to the read so me going on about that makes sense as a sus and I hope I cleared it up to MM.

[Kutiplz]

the current vc isn't ideal

is anyone reading Marshall town? if so why?

I do. Tone is good.

[Kutiplz]

Can this die please.


Also @Wiisp
When you said you scum read me and mac do you believe us to both be group scum or is it just you think we both have been individually wolfy?

Fix your vote to his username

[MartinGG99]

I feel like there's been a lot of chest thumping, I'm a man talk in the thread.

Anyway my vibes read:

Good:
Ultra
MM

Scared:
Martin
Wisp
Achro
NM

Sus:
Irk

Any thots or concern?

Got no idea what the "NM" is, so I'd like to have that clarified for future reference if it happens to become relevant. Otherwise seems cool.

Re: your earlier worry about pockets

I generally don't go out of my way to pocket specific people, I can elaborate more if desired, and I hope your read of me in the future isn't based solely or largely on my interactions with you in the future.

[Kutiplz]

Got no idea what the "NM" is, so I'd like to have that clarified for future reference if it happens to become relevant. Otherwise seems cool.

Re: your earlier worry about pockets

I generally don't go out of my way to pocket specific people, I can elaborate more if desired, and I hope your read of me in the future isn't based solely or largely on my interactions with you in the future.

NM was typo of DM

[Dark Magician]

NM is Me.
Miss-Spelled of DM.

[MartinGG99]

I'm gonna be so useless this game I know it.

You're not, you're actually meeting people who are fairly higher grade than the average player on this site lol

should be a good time for you regardless of alignment

I'm not going to be giving you a whole lot of room though given the chaotic executioner game....

like is this an implicit role claim out of nowhere? Or sneaky PR cover? Actually, probably don't answer that.

martin strong tr

no offense but like

that's just about the most replicable post I've made in my iso since a significant reason for its existence it due to my own persona and personality traits rather than alignment and the last line or two there could've been something I thought of while replying it

[MartinGG99]

Ikarus' burst of posts around 300 seems slightly town-lean for me.

I was just about to write how he seemed to have a lot of comments for the first 100 or so posts but then I read 307 and it seemed ok to me.

Definitely going to have to watch him more later given he basically went through all that, said his notes were valid or whatever, but didn't have any posted conclusions.


Actually wth he posted all of those posts within like 10 minutes????? Yeah I think I'm going to give him the day pass route.

[macdougall]

Now Mac do you want to tell me why you town read me or would you like me to just leave my vote on you and you soft claim wolf?

cuz you have a lot of swagger and care about your reads... you want to be heard and are trying to push your solves and are just generally full of a desire to achieve a town wincon. I enjoy your presence and think you're fun and cool on everything outside the way you're dealing with me which I can clearly see is stemming from reading my laissez faire approach to this particular game as severely in need of scrutiny due to nobody else doing so which is an entire fair and understandable thing to feel for exactly a town who cares a lot.

[Ultra]

What's all this hydra business about

[macdougall]

Can this die please.


Also @Wiisp
When you said you scum read me and mac do you believe us to both be group scum or is it just you think we both have been individually wolfy?

would be sick if you didn't want me to die tho as I'm town and just vibing and find you townie and think if you did find me town it'd help your worldview and we could really do some good things for the town

[macdougall]

I do. Tone is good.

got anything else?

how's your usual Marshall read accuracy?

[macdougall]

What's all this hydra business about

banana is apparently multiple ppl or something and the person who just posted was a bit fun and quirky and the game reacted like we needed to hurt something beautiful and unique as per the humanity playbook

[Kutiplz]

got anything else?

how's your usual Marshall read accuracy?

Never played with them before

[MartinGG99]

Hello, my role have some weird flavoring, and i think there are a total of three different variants of my role flavors, i already saw someone softing another variant.

This doesnt confirm them to be town tho, since i think all roles can either be town or mafia

That’s correct.
Even though most of my role is beneficial to town it can probably easily be given to a wolf.
Thus I need to prove socially that I am Town.

Is claiming PRs on day 1 a good thing? I know Dark's responses are in relation to Achro's neutral claim but...I have to ask. I would've assumed in most cases that PRs don't want to be found.

I mean I’m not really a role that mafia would directly want to kill, or at least not early.
I’m useless till mid and late game technically, completely useless day 1.

I don't understand @Dark Magician 's line of thought and purpose of these messages in this conversation here.

All I see is that someone is outing information about themselves in a way that's not beneficial to town especially if they are town and kinda just makes me want to

-vote Dark Magician

[MartinGG99]

First one also seems rather unusually self-conscious considering PoD doesn't name the person he thinks is softing a role and, judging by Dark Magician's response, goes "lol forget hiding who's what he's talking about me here and I understand I need to clear myself socially"

[Ultra]

banana is apparently multiple ppl or something and the person who just posted was a bit fun and quirky and the game reacted like we needed to hurt something beautiful and unique as per the humanity playbook

That's bananas

[MartinGG99]

i wanna comment on both ikarus and MM since theyre currently 2 biggest trains.

Starting with MM. This is kinda meta, gross but yeah…

Played with him twice, and both times he was scum. He was SOOOOOO obviously mafia on Day 1/2 it hurt. I was aggressively pushing him super early game.

This game however he definitely have different vibes than the other two games, so I’m inclined to townread him. Although its still early in the game so it may change.

Next with Ikarus, I’ve seen him go deeeeeeeeeep wolf to lylo days. I townread him when hes mafia and scumread him when hes town. Hes kinda hard to read.

That reminds me. PoD does have a limited but good record of catching wolf MM, particularly in situations where not many people have suspected/pushed wolf MM specifically, so I want to add that if people are evaluating MM in the future and need a second opinion other than mine I suggest PoD is a good person to check with on that department.

Of course this validates my feeling that MM is town here.

[Ultra]

I don't understand @Dark Magician 's line of thought and purpose of these messages in this conversation here.

All I see is that someone is outing information about themselves in a way that's not beneficial to town especially if they are town and kinda just makes me want to

-vote Dark Magician

"Even though most of my role is beneficial to town it can probably easily be given to a wolf."

Seems to suggest that it's not as clear cut, frankly it's hard to say without knowing what they're actually talking about, but PoD is also guilty of softing in the same way. There's some obvious dynamic at play we're not privy to

[Ultra]

In other words you have no basis for accusing him of oversharing without actually knowing the role in question, it's not the angle PoD chose either, who has a better picture of what he's talking about.

[MartinGG99]

Lolde's probably town, judging from his posts around the 400's.

[Ultra]

Annd if anyone has questions why my RVS vote hasn't changed (kutiplz)..

Well i'm not gonna ask you to review my previous games, but I tend to stick to my RVS vote till I develop something. Some players I've played with here might know about it or maybe not but that's how I play. I got sussed about it before, and I don't expect that to change here. I feel it's more weird to change your vote unnecessarily. I don't usually change my RVS vote to jump on a wagon without anything solid in my head but I get that is how it is.

This is such a self conscious post idk how to actually read this

[MartinGG99]

"Even though most of my role is beneficial to town it can probably easily be given to a wolf."

Seems to suggest that it's not as clear cut, frankly it's hard to say without knowing what they're actually talking about, but PoD is also guilty of softing in the same way. There's some obvious dynamic at play we're not privy to

In other words you have no basis for accusing him of oversharing without actually knowing the role in question, it's not the angle PoD chose either, who has a better picture of what he's talking about.

PoD didn't say his role was useless, and gave the only information about it that would be relevant for the town to know. Possibly in the event that he dies and someone claims a role similar to his, in which case he is pre-emptively expressing distrust on it.

Only way I can imagine PoD's claim being damaging for the town is that he does implicitly claim PR. With some setup spec on this, particularly with the bold and underline:

Every player will have one of the following roles. Most players will be vanilla. Many of the other roles can target one player at night to perform an action. If a role is stackable, it means that a player can have that power in addition to another role. There is no limit to how many of the stackable roles one player may have.

One can reasonably presume there may be some powerful town roles in here and there will be a number of town vanillas. That said, every single (truthful) claim inches the mafia closer towards killing any roles they may really want to kill.

The mech information I've claimed was purposefully limited to be mindful of that fact. I also brought up Ikarus's either accidental true-claim or intentional fake-claim earlier in my iso in part due to this reason as well.

Dark Magician's posts, if town, are absolutely not mindful of this imo.

[MartinGG99]

To add on:

I noticed the first quote by DM earlier in the game, but I dismissed because he can be quirky at times and it may have been a one-off accident.

Him doing the same sort of thing again, with information about how useless he supposedly is, is quite questionable. Especially if true, as it would also proclaim PoD to be a low-power role as well and be further damaging for the town. Or, at least, I am presuming roles that are uselss till later-game are less powerful. It could be the opposite, but regardless it is diminishing the lack of knowledge that wolves may have.

[Ultra]

PoD didn't say his role was useless, and gave the only information about it that would be relevant for the town to know. Possibly in the event that he dies and someone claims a role similar to his, in which case he is pre-emptively expressing distrust on it.

Only way I can imagine PoD's claim being damaging for the town is that he does implicitly claim PR. With some setup spec on this, particularly with the bold and underline:



One can reasonably presume there may be some powerful town roles in here and there will be a number of town vanillas. That said, every single (truthful) claim inches the mafia closer towards killing any roles they may really want to kill.

The mech information I've claimed was purposefully limited to be mindful of that fact. I also brought up Ikarus's either accidental true-claim or intentional fake-claim earlier in my iso in part due to this reason as well.

Dark Magician's posts, if town, are absolutely not mindful of this imo.

To add on:

I noticed the first quote by DM earlier in the game, but I dismissed because he can be quirky at times and it may have been a one-off accident.

Him doing the same sort of thing again, with information about how useless he supposedly is, is quite questionable. Especially if true, as it would also proclaim PoD to be a low-power role as well and be further damaging for the town. Or, at least, I am presuming roles that are uselss till later-game are less powerful. It could be the opposite, but regardless it is diminishing the lack of knowledge that wolves may have.

I still think it makes a poor *standalone* reason to suspect someone, there are some cases where softing and being transparent is the correct play, or it could be just as you observed, but this is all entirely speculative without a claim. If we force him to claim and his behavior fits retroactively with what he's done and he's town, your vote here is probably worth noting

[Ultra]

Alright we're close enough to crunch time, let's get an actual wagon going

Think I'm down for Ikarus/Arrow/Wisp/Marsh. First two in particular seem like goof D1 candidates. Need more time to chew over involved players, so let's toss some riff raff and move along

Alternatively we can cast achro and his 11 million wincons off the ship

[MartinGG99]

I'm doing that stupid thing where I'm thinking with my fingers and not my brain, sorry for the spaz energy. But I think Achro is using neutral as a cover for being a really good town role

what is the purpose of this

I'm assuming its obviously fake because if its not fake then this is at serious risk of misplay

[Ultra]

what is the purpose of this

I'm assuming its obviously fake because if its not fake then this is at serious risk of misplay

Good question, this is pretty hard to justify no matter how you look at it

[Achro]

But it is also a thought no wolf would need to say in thread. Steller is likely town based off of that alone tbh

[MartinGG99]

I still think it makes a poor *standalone* reason to suspect someone, there are some cases where softing and being transparent is the correct play, or it could be just as you observed, but this is all entirely speculative without a claim. If we force him to claim and his behavior fits retroactively with what he's done and he's town, your vote here is probably worth noting

You aren't wrong that its standalone

but that doesn't imply I town-read him for anything else, because I haven't

he is in a list of people I've not townread more or less at all (or, frame it another way, people I don't have trust of) and this is the larger reasons that make me want to chop him first


If his behavior will fits retroactively with respect to his role claim it must be a preety unusual role if we are to presume both him and PoD are town. By virtue of his response to PoD he is implicitly claiming that his role may be quite similar to PoD's, and yet PoD has not really had the same behaviors that DM has (at least, to the point that I've read up). In fact, looking at the VC right now, PoD is voting Dark Magician lmao.

[Loldebite]

But it is also a thought no wolf would need to say in thread. Steller is likely town based off of that alone tbh

So what you're saying is that you believe in Too Much of a Misplay to Be a Misplay ? (sorry stellaria)

[MartinGG99]

But it is also a thought no wolf would need to say in thread. Steller is likely town based off of that alone tbh

There's one more possibility I thought of but I'm withholding it till after their response to me on it (if at all).

[Loldebite]

I meant from the perspective of a game host. Is it likely for a host to make a lone hydra a mafia?

these kind of allegations suuuuuuuuuuuck soooooooooooooooooooooo baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad

Also regardless of what charmander claimed I'm still convinced it's a 2 people hydra. It's (probably?) just that cucho's a lunatic, at least they seemed to be the times I've seen a post of theirs.

[MartinGG99]

Thought I might as well. We have a vote-history button but its not good at showing retrospective vote-counts unless you start counting.

Kutiplz (1):
ikarusdk
ikarusdk (1):
Kutiplz
Ultra (1):
Marshmallow Marshall
Wiisp (1):
Ultra
macdougall (1):
Wiisp
Marshmallow Marshall (1):
macdougall
mac (1):
Dark Magician
Dark Magician (2):
powerofdeath, MartinGG99

[Loldebite]

Why would anyone take a day 1 claim seriously? Pringles said this game was full of a bunch of people like me sooooooo

Do you mean good, batshitinsane or merely goofy ? Or all of the above ?

I was getting to hate your guts but somehow you grew on me and I won't be voting you out of an almost allergic reaction to your "playstyle" or whatever yet I guess

[ikarusdk]

@Dark - I forgot to reply back to you when you asked me about why I think MM v Ultra is TvT rather than TvW based on the interactions.

It's mostly because of my reads of MM and Ultra independently.

I am un-so-confidently-but-bet-my-day-1-read that MM is playing town this game. I've had a few games with him and all of those games were wolf games. This game just feels different. Perhaps this is because of the higher grade player list? I don't know. But this is a very different vibe I get from MM, and I liked his overall history of posts.

Ultra, I am less sure of his towness, but his entrance and his willingness to poke at everyone is rather convincing to me that he isn't some wolf that is riding along different wagons that isn't him. Of course this is my first game with Ultra so I don't know if he powerwolfs or anything but I did not get wolfy vibes from Ultra just yet.

Also, the interactions alone read as if Ultra was proding MM and it got heated to a degree, and they felt genuine. Wouldn't exclude the possibility of WvW distancing from each other but I'm more inclined to believe it is TvT. TvW, possible, but I have more scummy feeling from certain others more than either of MM or Ultra so I'm not going to poke here.