S-FM 351: Mini Fooling Party

[Gikkle]

so what are you exactly gikkle?

Do you think that'll help town to know?
MM admitted to the murder so I don't see why what I am rolewise matters

[powerofdeath]

true, let save claims for next day

[Gikkle]

Marshmallow Marshall is the Dragon Head
Bakermir is the Triad Hidden

the assessor is a bit more elusive, but Auwt is a fairly good candidate IMO.

Well bakermir likely isn't triad hidden if MM is somehow town, but MM can be triad without baker, so MM always dies before Baker

[Auwt]

If Gikkle is town the solve is :
MM>POD>Bakermir/Inno

Thank me later.

[Auwt]

And no idea why MM is still not voted off.

-vote Marshmallow Marshall

[Auwt]

If Gikkle is town the solve is :
MM>POD>Bakermir/Inno

Thank me later.

Remember this if I happen to die next please.

[powerofdeath]

Remember this if I happen to die next please.

i will remember, ty

[bakermir]

Since it's been quite a bit past the 24 hour mark, and everyone has checked in saying they did NOT bus drive me or Ikarus, it's time I came clean.

My result on Marshmallow Marshall was a lie. It was a reaction fish. I did not see MM visit Ikarus. In fact, if MM is indeed lying about being controlled, then I was the one that was controlled/roleblocked. I won't say whether I'm detective or lookout or some other role, but my action was clearly messed with by something if MM is lying.
(also quick note that I didn't choose MM at random - I figured he was among the more likely to have performed that specific kill just based on some quick NKA, plus some residual sus from last EoD)

Getting MM to actually confess to the murder of Ikarus is not what I expected from this reaction fish, but hey, if it works, it works!
I suppose there's still technically the possibility that sure, the sorcerer could have controlled MM to Ikarus, but his claim is just super convenient (I think "vigi that was redirected trying to shoot the person that saw me visit the killed person" was probably the safest claim he could make without knowing if I was detective or lookout lol) & the DH would have to have killed the same person as him, which just makes it super unbelievable. Plus, shooting me is by itself enough to make me not trust him.

But that's not all! This whole day phase is FULL of reactions from people (and even more, the triad all had varying degrees of information, so it's more likely they slipped up somewhere). Because we have:

-The killer. This is almost certainly MM, so this is less relevant, BUT I will still include an analysis just in case.
The killer, if somehow it is NOT MM, will have a couple different reactions depending on whether they came on before or after MM's claim.
1. If they came on BEFORE, then they'll likely think I'm just straight up lying. Most likely, they're going to be very believing of my claim, a bit too NOT believing, or they're just gonna ignore it and see how the situation develops.
2. If they came on AFTER. then they're gonna think "Oh cool, free mislynch!" and just go super hard against MM.

-The liaison/sorcerer. This almost definitely exists regardless of if MM is telling the truth or not, so I can do some analysis based on how I think they would react.
The Liaison, who should know I was lying, will likely be extremely interested in the mechanical side of things, as they will be trying to be figuring out if I'm their triad buddy, or if maybe a locksmith stopped them and MM is indeed evil.
The sorcerer, if they targeted me, will probably think that I'm telling the truth about my result, but that perhaps whoever they controlled me to did the kill. They'll likely be very on board with pushing MM from the get go, but after the MM confession, they'll likely be a bit confused and will be even more interested in finding out what went down.
If the sorcerer controlled Vigi!MM, then most likely they're going to be trying to protect MM/avoid commiting themselves to an MM vote because they'll be concerned that MM could be the Dragon Head.

-The Corrupt Assessor
They have no hand in what went down, so the reaction of the Assessor is going to be the most hard to detect. However, because they have no reason to doubt my claim (especially after MM's confession), they're likely going to be a little bit reserved about actually going full against MM because they'll think he's actually their buddy. Most likely, the Assessor is going to hang back, or take a more "middle ground" approach where they leave themselves open to pushing either me OR MM.

Spoiler : Finding the Killer :

I will now go over the candidates for the killer if it is NOT MM

The killer will likely have one of three traits prior to MM's claim:
1. Believing my claim too readily
2. Doubting my claim too much
3. Avoiding the discussion altogether

The people that fit at least one of these categories prior to MM's claim:
PoD, Scumbot

The killer, AFTER MM's claim, will likely have went hard against MM because from their PoV it's a free mislynch.

The people that this applies to:
PoD, Scumbot

So, if MM is not the killer, I think it's probably one of the above two.
PoD - Very enthusiastic push to the point where if PoD is a Triad, it likely means he knows for sure MM isn't the killer (and is thus probably the killer himself)
Scumbot - Didn't really talk much about my info initially, which, if he's triad, is more indicative of being the killer over the other two since assessor is slightly more interested in learning more (not by much) & the hidden is actively interested in engaging with that conversation.

List of people I think are less likely to contain the killer based on their reactions:
Auwt - Only a few posts, but his first reaction - which was after MM admitted to the kill - was to cast doubt on the claim. The killer at this point should see MM as a free town lynch (whereas I could still be Triad from their PoV), so Auwt's reaction is slightly less likely to come from the killer.
Bakermir - Believed my claim initially but also questioned my claim in ways that felt like they weren't entirely sure whether I actually had caught the killer or not. Plus all the mech hints. 99% sure they're not the dragonhead.
Innovation - I just straight up don't think this slot kills Ikarus lol. Ikarus hard TRed em. But also they didn't seem too actively interested in the MM conversation which is slightly more indicative of not being the killer.


Dragon Head likeliness Ranked,

MM
>
PoD
>
Scumbot
>
Auwt
>
Innovation
>
Bakermir

Spoiler : Finding the Triad Hidden :

I will now go over the candidates for the Triad Hidden.

We have three likely possibilities in terms of Triad Hidden:

1. Sorcerer that controlled Marshmallow > Ikarus
2. Sorcerer that controlled me
3. Liaison that roleblocked me

In the first instance, the Sorcerer is going to think I'm telling the truth, and will thus be fairly reserved with fully pushing MM (especially after the MM claim).

That applies to,
Auwt, Bakermir, Innovation

In the second instance, the sorcerer is going to think that I'm telling the truth, but that someone ELSE performed the kill on Ikarus. Prior to the MM claim they'll be okay with pushing MM because they think they know the true killer, and AFTER the MM claim they'll be confused and thus will be super focused on finding out the mech of the situation.

That applies to,
Bakermir

In the third instance, the liaison is going to think that I'm lying. They are also going to try and figure out the mech of the situation, but are going to be playing more of a middle ground because they're not gonna be sure if MM is actually their buddy or if I'm lying.

That applies to,
Bakermir, Auwt

Thus I think Bakermir, Auwt, and Innovation are the three most likely to be the Triad Hidden, with Bakermir being the most likely.
Bakermir - I think I'll make another post for Baker. The evidence for them as the Hidden is abundant.
Auwt - Seemed to doubt my claim, which could come from liaison/sorcerer that knew I was lying.
Innovation - Can't say they were actually reserved, but they weren't here for enough of the day for me to say they are less likely to be the hidden. They were quick to take a mechanical stance (that they did not bus drive MM), and they put me as top town, so that makes them the least likely of the three to be the hidden.


List of people I think are less likely to contain the Triad Hidden based on their reactions:

PoD - Triad hidden is likely not going to commit to pushing MM as hard as PoD did since from their PoV they could very well be the dragon head.
Scumbot - Triad hidden is very mechanically interested in my claim, but he has displayed none of the interest I would expect from a triad hidden.
MM - He obviously doesn't claim to have shot Ikarus if he's a triad hidden who could do some other fake claim lol

Triad Hidden likeliness ranked,

Bakermir
>
Auwt
>
Innovation
>
PoD
>
Scumbot
>
MM

Spoiler : Finding the Assessor :

I will now go over the candidates for the Assessor.

The Assessor, before AND after, will likely have the same/a similar stance. They will not talk too much about the mech. The Assessor will likely have one of the following traits:
1. They engage with the claim as little as possible to keep their options open.
2. They take a "both sides" approach.

The people that fit one of the above categories:
Auwt, Scumbot

Thus it is likely that one of Auwt or Scumbot contains the Assessor.

Auwt, because the first thing they did was take a both sides approach. This is exactly what I expect an assessor would do - they are keeping their options open so they don't have to commit to pushing someone they think is their buddy.
Scumbot, because they've sort of avoided talking about it. This also what I'd expect from an Assessor - trying to not share your thoughts too much, while also going along with the mech, that way they're not stuck in a prison of their own words, but they can't be called out for not going along with it.

List of people I think are less likely to contain the Assessor based on their reactions:

Bakermir - Way too involved with the mechanical side of things. The assessor should have no idea what's going on, and should have no reason to be this interested in mech (nor should they have the implied mech knowledge bakermir apparently has).
MM - obviously he's not gonna claim to have visited ikarus if he didn't actually do it lol
PoD - hard committed himself to voting MM. Assessor is not interested in trapping themselves in this vote when there's still wiggle room.
Innovation - came in hard TRing me, something an assessor would not really want to do since that sort of prevents them from going against me. Probably the most likely of this list though.

Assessor likeliness ranked,

Auwt
>
Scumbot
>
Innovation
>
PoD
>
Bakermir
>
MM

image.jpg

[bakermir]

I don't like Gikkle anymore

[bakermir]

And no idea why MM is still not voted off.

-vote Marshmallow Marshall

what the fuck why is everyone wolfing

[bakermir]

inconvenient @bakermir @powerofdeath @scumbot5679

Can one of y'all unvote so we don't early hammer?

daym

-unvote

[bakermir]

Do you think that'll help town to know?
MM admitted to the murder so I don't see why what I am rolewise matters

it does matter because you pretend like there can't be a war surgeon in play here and war surgeon might reveal any moment


now please clarify your role and everything so we can sort this mess

[bakermir]

So you didn't bus drive me and ikarus?

I didn't bus you guys, it wouldn't make sense for me to do so since ikarus was shielding me, and swapping you with him doens't make sense at all. Im the last TH if MM s indeed vigi.

This exchange screams CA to me in one world

no wonder Gikkle "can't" find CA

[powerofdeath]

gikkle gambit aside, how do u feel about MM claiming vigilante that shot Gikkle?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Since it's been quite a bit past the 24 hour mark, and everyone has checked in saying they did NOT bus drive me or Ikarus, it's time I came clean.

My result on Marshmallow Marshall was a lie. It was a reaction fish. I did not see MM visit Ikarus. In fact, if MM is indeed lying about being controlled, then I was the one that was controlled/roleblocked. I won't say whether I'm detective or lookout or some other role, but my action was clearly messed with by something if MM is lying.
(also quick note that I didn't choose MM at random - I figured he was among the more likely to have performed that specific kill just based on some quick NKA, plus some residual sus from last EoD)

Getting MM to actually confess to the murder of Ikarus is not what I expected from this reaction fish, but hey, if it works, it works!
I suppose there's still technically the possibility that sure, the sorcerer could have controlled MM to Ikarus, but his claim is just super convenient (I think "vigi that was redirected trying to shoot the person that saw me visit the killed person" was probably the safest claim he could make without knowing if I was detective or lookout lol) & the DH would have to have killed the same person as him, which just makes it super unbelievable. Plus, shooting me is by itself enough to make me not trust him.

But that's not all! This whole day phase is FULL of reactions from people (and even more, the triad all had varying degrees of information, so it's more likely they slipped up somewhere). Because we have:

-The killer. This is almost certainly MM, so this is less relevant, BUT I will still include an analysis just in case.
The killer, if somehow it is NOT MM, will have a couple different reactions depending on whether they came on before or after MM's claim.
1. If they came on BEFORE, then they'll likely think I'm just straight up lying. Most likely, they're going to be very believing of my claim, a bit too NOT believing, or they're just gonna ignore it and see how the situation develops.
2. If they came on AFTER. then they're gonna think "Oh cool, free mislynch!" and just go super hard against MM.

-The liaison/sorcerer. This almost definitely exists regardless of if MM is telling the truth or not, so I can do some analysis based on how I think they would react.
The Liaison, who should know I was lying, will likely be extremely interested in the mechanical side of things, as they will be trying to be figuring out if I'm their triad buddy, or if maybe a locksmith stopped them and MM is indeed evil.
The sorcerer, if they targeted me, will probably think that I'm telling the truth about my result, but that perhaps whoever they controlled me to did the kill. They'll likely be very on board with pushing MM from the get go, but after the MM confession, they'll likely be a bit confused and will be even more interested in finding out what went down.
If the sorcerer controlled Vigi!MM, then most likely they're going to be trying to protect MM/avoid commiting themselves to an MM vote because they'll be concerned that MM could be the Dragon Head.

-The Corrupt Assessor
They have no hand in what went down, so the reaction of the Assessor is going to be the most hard to detect. However, because they have no reason to doubt my claim (especially after MM's confession), they're likely going to be a little bit reserved about actually going full against MM because they'll think he's actually their buddy. Most likely, the Assessor is going to hang back, or take a more "middle ground" approach where they leave themselves open to pushing either me OR MM.

Spoiler : Finding the Killer :

I will now go over the candidates for the killer if it is NOT MM

The killer will likely have one of three traits prior to MM's claim:
1. Believing my claim too readily
2. Doubting my claim too much
3. Avoiding the discussion altogether

The people that fit at least one of these categories prior to MM's claim:
PoD, Scumbot

The killer, AFTER MM's claim, will likely have went hard against MM because from their PoV it's a free mislynch.

The people that this applies to:
PoD, Scumbot

So, if MM is not the killer, I think it's probably one of the above two.
PoD - Very enthusiastic push to the point where if PoD is a Triad, it likely means he knows for sure MM isn't the killer (and is thus probably the killer himself)
Scumbot - Didn't really talk much about my info initially, which, if he's triad, is more indicative of being the killer over the other two since assessor is slightly more interested in learning more (not by much) & the hidden is actively interested in engaging with that conversation.

List of people I think are less likely to contain the killer based on their reactions:
Auwt - Only a few posts, but his first reaction - which was after MM admitted to the kill - was to cast doubt on the claim. The killer at this point should see MM as a free town lynch (whereas I could still be Triad from their PoV), so Auwt's reaction is slightly less likely to come from the killer.
Bakermir - Believed my claim initially but also questioned my claim in ways that felt like they weren't entirely sure whether I actually had caught the killer or not. Plus all the mech hints. 99% sure they're not the dragonhead.
Innovation - I just straight up don't think this slot kills Ikarus lol. Ikarus hard TRed em. But also they didn't seem too actively interested in the MM conversation which is slightly more indicative of not being the killer.


Dragon Head likeliness Ranked,

MM
>
PoD
>
Scumbot
>
Auwt
>
Innovation
>
Bakermir

Spoiler : Finding the Triad Hidden :

I will now go over the candidates for the Triad Hidden.

We have three likely possibilities in terms of Triad Hidden:

1. Sorcerer that controlled Marshmallow > Ikarus
2. Sorcerer that controlled me
3. Liaison that roleblocked me

In the first instance, the Sorcerer is going to think I'm telling the truth, and will thus be fairly reserved with fully pushing MM (especially after the MM claim).

That applies to,
Auwt, Bakermir, Innovation

In the second instance, the sorcerer is going to think that I'm telling the truth, but that someone ELSE performed the kill on Ikarus. Prior to the MM claim they'll be okay with pushing MM because they think they know the true killer, and AFTER the MM claim they'll be confused and thus will be super focused on finding out the mech of the situation.

That applies to,
Bakermir

In the third instance, the liaison is going to think that I'm lying. They are also going to try and figure out the mech of the situation, but are going to be playing more of a middle ground because they're not gonna be sure if MM is actually their buddy or if I'm lying.

That applies to,
Bakermir, Auwt

Thus I think Bakermir, Auwt, and Innovation are the three most likely to be the Triad Hidden, with Bakermir being the most likely.
Bakermir - I think I'll make another post for Baker. The evidence for them as the Hidden is abundant.
Auwt - Seemed to doubt my claim, which could come from liaison/sorcerer that knew I was lying.
Innovation - Can't say they were actually reserved, but they weren't here for enough of the day for me to say they are less likely to be the hidden. They were quick to take a mechanical stance (that they did not bus drive MM), and they put me as top town, so that makes them the least likely of the three to be the hidden.


List of people I think are less likely to contain the Triad Hidden based on their reactions:

PoD - Triad hidden is likely not going to commit to pushing MM as hard as PoD did since from their PoV they could very well be the dragon head.
Scumbot - Triad hidden is very mechanically interested in my claim, but he has displayed none of the interest I would expect from a triad hidden.
MM - He obviously doesn't claim to have shot Ikarus if he's a triad hidden who could do some other fake claim lol

Triad Hidden likeliness ranked,

Bakermir
>
Auwt
>
Innovation
>
PoD
>
Scumbot
>
MM

Spoiler : Finding the Assessor :

I will now go over the candidates for the Assessor.

The Assessor, before AND after, will likely have the same/a similar stance. They will not talk too much about the mech. The Assessor will likely have one of the following traits:
1. They engage with the claim as little as possible to keep their options open.
2. They take a "both sides" approach.

The people that fit one of the above categories:
Auwt, Scumbot

Thus it is likely that one of Auwt or Scumbot contains the Assessor.

Auwt, because the first thing they did was take a both sides approach. This is exactly what I expect an assessor would do - they are keeping their options open so they don't have to commit to pushing someone they think is their buddy.
Scumbot, because they've sort of avoided talking about it. This also what I'd expect from an Assessor - trying to not share your thoughts too much, while also going along with the mech, that way they're not stuck in a prison of their own words, but they can't be called out for not going along with it.

List of people I think are less likely to contain the Assessor based on their reactions:

Bakermir - Way too involved with the mechanical side of things. The assessor should have no idea what's going on, and should have no reason to be this interested in mech (nor should they have the implied mech knowledge bakermir apparently has).
MM - obviously he's not gonna claim to have visited ikarus if he didn't actually do it lol
PoD - hard committed himself to voting MM. Assessor is not interested in trapping themselves in this vote when there's still wiggle room.
Innovation - came in hard TRing me, something an assessor would not really want to do since that sort of prevents them from going against me. Probably the most likely of this list though.

Assessor likeliness ranked,

Auwt
>
Scumbot
>
Innovation
>
PoD
>
Bakermir
>
MM

LOL

Okay, you're just scum backtracking after seeing the opportunity there xD. Assuming you would be telling the truth, if you had not somehow "correctly" guessed my kill at Ikarus (who wasn't even my target), you would only have put yourself in a very sticky position with little gain for town. I 99,99 % don't buy it.

Also, considering POD's reaction to your claim, i.e. immediatly claiming that it's very possible you made it all up (when such a possibility was pretty much in nobody's mind), I suspect he's Dragon Head who knows what happened to the kill (he very likely attacked Ikarus himself) and thus had TMI. I'd definetly be wary of him.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

And no idea why MM is still not voted off.

-vote Marshmallow Marshall

Because not everyone likes easy turbomislynches like you, I assume? You haven't even said anything about Gikkle's stuff (nor about his supposed gambit), so this feels very out of place.

[Gikkle]

it does matter because you pretend like there can't be a war surgeon in play here and war surgeon might reveal any moment


now please clarify your role and everything so we can sort this mess

I think you should be the one claiming if you're going to make the assertion you knew CA visited MM. Obviously you have mech info that will help us out, whereas my claim will not help at all since I've outed all the details that could be helpful.

[Gikkle]

LOL

Okay, you're just scum backtracking after seeing the opportunity there xD. Assuming you would be telling the truth, if you had not somehow "correctly" guessed my kill at Ikarus (who wasn't even my target), you would only have put yourself in a very sticky position with little gain for town. I 99,99 % don't buy it.

Also, considering POD's reaction to your claim, i.e. immediatly claiming that it's very possible you made it all up (when such a possibility was pretty much in nobody's mind), I suspect he's Dragon Head who knows what happened to the kill (he very likely attacked Ikarus himself) and thus had TMI. I'd definetly be wary of him.

The benefit exists regardless of if you were the killer or not. Triad had no real TMI before this. But fake claiming forces TMI into the thread where there was none before. If you weren't the killer, the gambit still would have been beneficial because it would have still produced a number of reactions.


I did notice that from PoD, which is why if you're not the DH I figured he was the most likely candidate. I don't think you've been playing townie enough to really seriously consider it though.

[Gikkle]

I would love to hear what @scumbot5679 thinks about the situation, and their thoughts on bakermir

[Gikkle]

I think most MM town worlds have bus driver bus driving me somewhere (doesn't matter where, if bus driver bus drove me it opens a lot of possibilities)

But considering nobody claimed to bus drive me, I really can't see town MM. Sorcerer controlling them doesn't really sound very believable given he was heavily sussed EoD yesterday and idk why the sorcerer would control him over anyone else

[Auwt]

Hold on, how many and which claims do we have as of now ??

[Gikkle]

Hold on, how many and which claims do we have as of now ??

MM claimed to have shot me but that it somehow ended up at ikarus and now he has no more shots
I claim that if MM is lying about the above, I was the one that was roleblocked/controlled
Baker claims to know (somehow) that CA targeted MM and that Bus driver bus drove me

[Gikkle]

MM claimed to have shot me but that it somehow ended up at ikarus and now he has no more shots
I claim that if MM is lying about the above, I was the one that was roleblocked/controlled
Baker claims to know (somehow) that CA targeted MM and that Bus driver bus drove me

(But no bus driver has claimed to have bus driven me sooo)

[Gikkle]

MM claimed to have shot me but that it somehow ended up at ikarus and now he has no more shots
I claim that if MM is lying about the above, I was the one that was roleblocked/controlled
Baker claims to know (somehow) that CA targeted MM and that Bus driver bus drove me

CA being corrupted assessor

[Auwt]

MM claimed to have shot me but that it somehow ended up at ikarus and now he has no more shots
I claim that if MM is lying about the above, I was the one that was roleblocked/controlled
Baker claims to know (somehow) that CA targeted MM and that Bus driver bus drove me

How could bakermir even know two seperate totally different things?

[Gikkle]

How could bakermir even know two seperate totally different things?

That's what I'm saying lol

[Gikkle]

That's what I'm saying lol

The only way they could know (or think they know) that information as town would be:

1. They misunderstood how CA works (unlikely)
2. Detective that saw someone visit MM and someone else (they would have claimed this by now - if they claim this at this point I wouldn't believe them)
3. Butler that's making stuff up to protect MM (incredibly unlikely, they said they didn't know MM was 100% town)


No other role could have BOTH of those pieces of information in the town. So Baker's likely just lying to protect MM bc they think MM is the dragon head.

This is supported by the fact Baker has played day play wise exactly like how I expect the triad hidden to be playing.

Did you read my case on Baker @Auwt ? What did you think of it?
Because I believe it enough such that I think Baker's the only other person I'd be willing to vote over MM here

[powerofdeath]

i dont feel comfortable voting baker in a “lylo” situation when MM is just super obvscum

[powerofdeath]

also the fact no scums hammered last night meant that even the scums think MM is triad

[Auwt]

The only way they could know (or think they know) that information as town would be:

1. They misunderstood how CA works (unlikely)
2. Detective that saw someone visit MM and someone else (they would have claimed this by now - if they claim this at this point I wouldn't believe them)
3. Butler that's making stuff up to protect MM (incredibly unlikely, they said they didn't know MM was 100% town)


No other role could have BOTH of those pieces of information in the town. So Baker's likely just lying to protect MM bc they think MM is the dragon head.

This is supported by the fact Baker has played day play wise exactly like how I expect the triad hidden to be playing.

Did you read my case on Baker @Auwt? What did you think of it?
Because I believe it enough such that I think Baker's the only other person I'd be willing to vote over MM here

Point 1, yeah, Point 2, that does not explain how could bakermir know that MM has been CA'd, Point 3, I dont think he is.
My bet is, bakermir knows by himself that MM is not in a good spot, and think the same as we do, but with a different color of role card.

I still believe triad world to be MM/POD/Bakermir

I am sorry if I haven't read everything, I might have skipped some pages due to the lack of weekend.

[Auwt]

Point 1, yeah, Point 2, that does not explain how could bakermir know that MM has been CA'd, Point 3, I dont think he is.
My bet is, bakermir knows by himself that MM is not in a good spot, and think the same as we do, but with a different color of role card.

I still believe triad world to be MM/POD/Bakermir

I am sorry if I haven't read everything, I might have skipped some pages due to the lack of weekend.

Or Gikkle is Deceiver.
Which imo is hard to prove or not to prove.

[scumbot5679]

no one is suggesting voting bakemir over MM but I would vote bakemir over you tomorrow

[scumbot5679]

regardless of bakemir's alignment, his accusation against me is just kinda basic. "you pushed town thus you are scummy!" ZZZZZZZZZ His stuff about me killing IKA is just nonsense and if he's attempting to claim that I targeted Ika last night then he's just lying.

[scumbot5679]

it does matter because you pretend like there can't be a war surgeon in play here and war surgeon might reveal any moment


now please clarify your role and everything so we can sort this mess

everyone has been on and no one has claimed anything that interferes's with their roles. Of course, scum wouldn't claim. MM is a bit scummy in his own right even without the "fake gulity/reaction test".

[Gikkle]

I guess I'll just play devils advocate and spend this time trying to form "cases" against every player (except MM and Baker since I've talked about them enough) to try and get my thoughts straight
Gonna do this trying to ignore my current conclusions to keep this as unbiased as possible but obviously there's still gonna be some bias
(note that my words in these posts don't necessarily reflect my actual beliefs)

Spoiler : Case against PoD :

1. Comment about Ikarus kill being weird at SoD2 could be hinting at something? The wording felt strange at the time, as if PoD was trying to have people interpret it in a specific way (idk what way - maybe a hint to triad that he was the killer that didn't read, or maybe trying to get town to think "oh he admitted to having the same quality as the killer it can't be him". Whatever the motivation, it felt kinda weird to me.)
2. Quick to jump on MM - if MM isn't the killer, it makes sense that the actual killer would jump on this w/ no questions asked.
3. After MM's claim, he acts like even a bus driver swapping me and ikarus couldn't prove MM's innocence. Perhaps he really believes I'm just that unshootable, or perhaps he just doesn't want someone he now knows is an easy mislynch to get out of this.
4. Brings up the possibility I'm lying. Like MM said, nobody was really even considering this option, but the true killer, and possibly even the triad hidden I suppose, would be distinctly aware of the possibility I'm lying. This was after MM had claimed, too. PoD's list of possibilities seem to imply that he's considering the possibility that DH just independently killed Ikarus, as he introduces both MM being RBed and me being night immune as possible explanations for what happened with MM's shot (both would require that DH attacked Ikarus directly). Despite that, he doesn't seem too open to the idea that the dragon head just straight up tried to kill me? Which is weird because, to him, Ikarus was a weird kill made by someone who didn't read up.
5. Refused to unvote. Most likely, if PoD is the killer, he is convinced MM is town - thus, he WANTS MM to be hammered. So him not unvoting is sort of a bad look since it doesn't really hurt to unvote if he's town.

Spoiler : Case against Auwt :

I mean, he hasn't posted much, so there's not much to "case", but the first thing he did was take an approach that allowed him the possibility of pushing both me and MM.
Also put MM back into hammering range after my reveal, and seemed to WANT to hammer, which means they could be Triad that wanted to take a more long term approach instead of the one they were just called out for?

Spoiler : Case against Innovation :

Also not a lot to really "case", but..

Day 1 he sheeped me on Ikarus & after unvoting after I asked, never voted again. Sure, the thing that prevents you from posting when new posts come in is a nuisance (you can turn that off btw if renegade hasn't already told you how), but his last post was at 8:36, and all of the posts in the minutes leading up to that were HIS (from 8:32-8:36 only he was posting), and after 8:36 posting was REALLY slow. So being prevented by that feature doesn't really add up given that between 8:36 - 9:00PM there were only like 24 posts, which is like 1 post per minute.

Day 2, his top scum was not MM, but PoD. If I'm apparently his top town, he should believe my claim and thus SR MM - but he focuses on PoD. So could be indicative of Innovation avoiding the conversation because he knows something we don't? Or it could be indicative of him just not wanting to vote his buddy.

Spoiler : Case on Scumbot :

1. Day 1 he SRed me and scarlet, which imo is weird because Triads are very much interested in just voting off super townie people so as to avoid voting off their buddies, so the choice of me and scarlet does come across as a possible agenda.
2. EoD1 generally appeared uncompromising and as if he was trying to force a town chop.
3. Seemed to think Ikarus was gonna shoot him, which, with Ikarus ending up dead, is sort of interesting and makes me wonder if scumbot had something to do with that lol
3. Day 2 sort of ignored my mech on MM at first, which could be indicative of Killer/Assessor trying to see how things develop.
4. Upon MM claiming he was pretty quick to jump on him, which makes sense for the true Killer who sees a free mislynch, or perhaps even the assessor who thinks MM's position is no longer tenable.

Perhaps I'll work on the reverse and come up with town cases for everybody
we'll see

[Gikkle]

It is probably best we hammer an hour or two before actual EoD btw, that way the triad members don't get any ideas

[Auwt]

I guess I'll just play devils advocate and spend this time trying to form "cases" against every player (except MM and Baker since I've talked about them enough) to try and get my thoughts straight
Gonna do this trying to ignore my current conclusions to keep this as unbiased as possible but obviously there's still gonna be some bias
(note that my words in these posts don't necessarily reflect my actual beliefs)

Spoiler : Case against PoD :

1. Comment about Ikarus kill being weird at SoD2 could be hinting at something? The wording felt strange at the time, as if PoD was trying to have people interpret it in a specific way (idk what way - maybe a hint to triad that he was the killer that didn't read, or maybe trying to get town to think "oh he admitted to having the same quality as the killer it can't be him". Whatever the motivation, it felt kinda weird to me.)
2. Quick to jump on MM - if MM isn't the killer, it makes sense that the actual killer would jump on this w/ no questions asked.
3. After MM's claim, he acts like even a bus driver swapping me and ikarus couldn't prove MM's innocence. Perhaps he really believes I'm just that unshootable, or perhaps he just doesn't want someone he now knows is an easy mislynch to get out of this.
4. Brings up the possibility I'm lying. Like MM said, nobody was really even considering this option, but the true killer, and possibly even the triad hidden I suppose, would be distinctly aware of the possibility I'm lying. This was after MM had claimed, too. PoD's list of possibilities seem to imply that he's considering the possibility that DH just independently killed Ikarus, as he introduces both MM being RBed and me being night immune as possible explanations for what happened with MM's shot (both would require that DH attacked Ikarus directly). Despite that, he doesn't seem too open to the idea that the dragon head just straight up tried to kill me? Which is weird because, to him, Ikarus was a weird kill made by someone who didn't read up.
5. Refused to unvote. Most likely, if PoD is the killer, he is convinced MM is town - thus, he WANTS MM to be hammered. So him not unvoting is sort of a bad look since it doesn't really hurt to unvote if he's town.

Spoiler : Case against Auwt :

I mean, he hasn't posted much, so there's not much to "case", but the first thing he did was take an approach that allowed him the possibility of pushing both me and MM.
Also put MM back into hammering range after my reveal, and seemed to WANT to hammer, which means they could be Triad that wanted to take a more long term approach instead of the one they were just called out for?

Spoiler : Case against Innovation :

Also not a lot to really "case", but..

Day 1 he sheeped me on Ikarus & after unvoting after I asked, never voted again. Sure, the thing that prevents you from posting when new posts come in is a nuisance (you can turn that off btw if renegade hasn't already told you how), but his last post was at 8:36, and all of the posts in the minutes leading up to that were HIS (from 8:32-8:36 only he was posting), and after 8:36 posting was REALLY slow. So being prevented by that feature doesn't really add up given that between 8:36 - 9:00PM there were only like 24 posts, which is like 1 post per minute.

Day 2, his top scum was not MM, but PoD. If I'm apparently his top town, he should believe my claim and thus SR MM - but he focuses on PoD. So could be indicative of Innovation avoiding the conversation because he knows something we don't? Or it could be indicative of him just not wanting to vote his buddy.

Spoiler : Case on Scumbot :

1. Day 1 he SRed me and scarlet, which imo is weird because Triads are very much interested in just voting off super townie people so as to avoid voting off their buddies, so the choice of me and scarlet does come across as a possible agenda.
2. EoD1 generally appeared uncompromising and as if he was trying to force a town chop.
3. Seemed to think Ikarus was gonna shoot him, which, with Ikarus ending up dead, is sort of interesting and makes me wonder if scumbot had something to do with that lol
3. Day 2 sort of ignored my mech on MM at first, which could be indicative of Killer/Assessor trying to see how things develop.
4. Upon MM claiming he was pretty quick to jump on him, which makes sense for the true Killer who sees a free mislynch, or perhaps even the assessor who thinks MM's position is no longer tenable.

Perhaps I'll work on the reverse and come up with town cases for everybody
we'll see

FWIW I don't care about my position when I vote someone.
I have no shame being the first, nor the middle, nor the hammer.
And yes, I would've totally hammered if I had had the opportunity to do so.

[Auwt]

Because not everyone likes easy turbomislynches like you, I assume? You haven't even said anything about Gikkle's stuff (nor about his supposed gambit), so this feels very out of place.

Ah yeah, the famous "mislynch".

Do you find it weird that the DH did not hit anyone in your world ?

Do you find it weird that you got seen as visiting, and by extend, killing the only player that claimed Citizen, aka Ikarus?

Do you find it weird that you want to occupy a TPR slot ?

Do you find it weird that at least a triad, if not more are present in (Gikkle and you) ?

Do you find it weird that you just need an excuse to stay alive for at least a day longer to potentially tie the game with the possible known triad, and therefore knew in advance what you had to do, aka claim Vigilante, before any strangery would happen ?

[Gikkle]

hmmm
I am sort of wondering why MM would claim to shoot me instead of just claiming to shoot Ikarus?
There's precedent to him suspecting Ikarus so I'd imagine it'd be easier to justify, and it's not like the claim helps clear up the question of "where did the DH kill go" anymore than just claiming to shoot Ikarus
I was initially thinking that by claiming to shoot me he was hoping to add a bunch of mechanical confusion & maybe look better by claiming a "worse" kill than what he was actually caught for, but now I'm wondering if maybe even if MM is the DH, perhaps he was redirected anyways and he actually legit tried to kill me?

[Gikkle]

hmmm
I am sort of wondering why MM would claim to shoot me instead of just claiming to shoot Ikarus?
There's precedent to him suspecting Ikarus so I'd imagine it'd be easier to justify, and it's not like the claim helps clear up the question of "where did the DH kill go" anymore than just claiming to shoot Ikarus
I was initially thinking that by claiming to shoot me he was hoping to add a bunch of mechanical confusion & maybe look better by claiming a "worse" kill than what he was actually caught for, but now I'm wondering if maybe even if MM is the DH, perhaps he was redirected anyways and he actually legit tried to kill me?

I'm gonna take a second to consider T!MM worlds

[Gikkle]

hmmm
I am sort of wondering why MM would claim to shoot me instead of just claiming to shoot Ikarus?
There's precedent to him suspecting Ikarus so I'd imagine it'd be easier to justify, and it's not like the claim helps clear up the question of "where did the DH kill go" anymore than just claiming to shoot Ikarus
I was initially thinking that by claiming to shoot me he was hoping to add a bunch of mechanical confusion & maybe look better by claiming a "worse" kill than what he was actually caught for, but now I'm wondering if maybe even if MM is the DH, perhaps he was redirected anyways and he actually legit tried to kill me?

well I suppose it could also be trying to create an angle to attack me from since claiming to have just straight up shot Ikarus leaves him basically completely at my mercy and forces him to concede that I'm town, since the only roles I could be are Vanguard, Detective, or Lookout, and obviously in the first case I wouldn't be calling him out.

[Auwt]

Or Gikkle is Deceiver.
Which imo is hard to prove or not to prove.

well I suppose it could also be trying to create an angle to attack me from since claiming to have just straight up shot Ikarus leaves him basically completely at my mercy and forces him to concede that I'm town, since the only roles I could be are Vanguard, Detective, or Lookout, and obviously in the first case I wouldn't be calling him out.

; )

[Gikkle]

I'm starting to think my solve is wrong because Auwt and PoD just feel like hungry hungry wolves who see a piece of meat dangling right in front of them and it's making me uncomfortable lol

[Gikkle]

; )

Just to be clear, I would have hammered several times by now if I was the deceiver or if I was any kind of Triad that could know he was town.

The fact that you are pushing this idea of 1 triad between me and MM as if it's realistic, but also want to hammer MM, is just a really bad look imo.

[Gikkle]

I think I've changed my mind about a mass claim lol. I mean, it IS lylo technically, and Auwt & PoD's behavior is making me real antsy
@bakermir @powerofdeath @Auwt @Innovation @scumbot5679

Mass claim time everyone. I'll claim myself after at least 2 other people claim.

[scumbot5679]

lets not give scum a road map, kay? I also think its a little late in the day for MC, maybe at the satart of tomorrow but then again we prob just hit two scum in MM/Bakemir so town is in a good place and all a MC does is tell scum who the PRs are.

[scumbot5679]

The fact that you are pushing this idea of 1 triad between me and MM as if it's realistic

but isn't it? like ofc there's not guilty on him but he's prob scum. Are you worried that he'll flip town and you'll get heat for it?

[Gikkle]

lets not give scum a road map, kay? I also think its a little late in the day for MC, maybe at the satart of tomorrow but then again we prob just hit two scum in MM/Bakemir so town is in a good place and all a MC does is tell scum who the PRs are.

Giving scum a "road map" is better than potentially losing the game lol

[Gikkle]

but isn't it? like ofc there's not guilty on him but he's prob scum. Are you worried that he'll flip town and you'll get heat for it?

The game's over if he flips town. I'm not gonna be getting any kind of heat in that scenario.

[Gikkle]

Town MM sorta means

1. The actual killer is very happy and on board with what's going on. They know this is a mislynch in this case, and thus have no problem voting - and possibly even hammering - MM. People that passed up the opportunity to hammer are likely not the killer.
2. The hidden, who had to have controlled MM, is probably more on board with this than a sorcerer/liaison that targeted me would be, as they would more reason than anyone else to actually believe MM's claim. So they would actually probably be okay with this vote since there is a decent enough chance MM is actually town from their PoV. Worst case scenario, they just try and win it next day (don't think I don't notice how Auwt seems to be trying to set me up for tomorrow).
3. The assessor is likely the LEAST on board out of these three. They have no reason to believe that any of what MM claims is true, and thus are probably more on the sidelines.

So if MM is TOWN, then I think everyone falls into the following categories:
1. PoD, Auwt (Bakermir is def not killer based on behavior & unvoted quick preventing hammer possibility, innovation could have hammered for a whole hour but didn't, scumbot unvoted with no argument & prevented auwt from hammering)
2. PoD, Auwt, Innovation (Bakermir progression on MM doesn't feel like they were sorcerer that controlled him, scumbot doesn't seem very interested in the mech side of things which is what I'd expect from a hidden)
3. Scumbot, Auwt, Innovation (Bakermir is way too involved in the mech to be the assessor, PoD is way too committed to voting MM to be the assessor IMO)





so I guess to sum this up

Town MM =

Bakermir is likely town
Killer between PoD, Auwt
Hidden between (one of PoD/Auwt), innovation
Assessor between (one of Auwt/Innovation), scumbot


I think scumbot is town rn so in reality the team with T!MM is probably something like Auwt/PoD/Innovation, and if MM is indeed a wolf it's probably MM/(Bakermir/PoD, more likely baker)/(auwt/innovation)