So. I claim Union Leader. I attempted to convert Blinkskater to a Follower because it would have allowed to get him confirmed. I was roleblocked, so I did NOT waste a convert on him! So now, if we go with the two TPR claims we got, it means the RBer was a WITCH! Unless Ozy lies (or me). I am being quite busy IRL, so I might leave you without warning sometimes. Don't go say I'm passive, not scumhunting and scummy because of that.
Now, let's discuss the lynch question for today. Yes or no? Who? When? Why? Once everyone will have claimed a role (maybe out of nozbugz because he's never online) let's start discussing that!
Btw I don't think Ozy and Magoroth are scum together. I'd like a grid of who has had:
the most interactions
the less interactions
the strangest interactions (can be same as most or less)
Oh well, now that I have time I'm alone... yay. Going to work on a list of reads and maybe iso Magoroth, OzyWho or Distorted... if I have time. Don't scream at me if I don't.
Soviet_Love, I think it's rather obvious why I townread him lol. Extremely pro-town, provides reasonings and thoughts, makes the game move. Highest town read, 98% town.
Distorted, for being manipulated on D1. I townread him more for his interactions than for his posts.
OzyWho, his claim gives him a temp free pass.
:neutral
Soviet_Love, I think it's rather obvious why I townread him lol. Extremely pro-town, provides reasonings and thoughts, makes the game move. Highest town read, 98% town.
Distorted, for being manipulated on D1. I townread him more for his interactions than for his posts.
OzyWho, because his claim gives him a temp free pass, and it fits with the post #4 slip. It doesn't confirm him in any way though, and I'm having him as a 60/40 town lean.
Noz_Bugz, as I said I feel like he's the AFK citizen not paying attention at all. It could also be a strategy to not get lynched... Which is why I'll put him in the neutral category, 49/51 because of the "shitty predictions" post that could be an indication for a scum partner.
Magoroth, quite unsure about that guy. He gives me uneasy vibes, even if Ozy said he was NS... Ozy could be lying, and Magoroth could be GF. 45/55, slight scum lean.
WAIT:
I need help resolving move orders.
If (1) escort blocks Marshmallow Marshall
(2) Marshmallow Marshall as mason leader visits blink
(3) mass murderer visited blink
Then does the mass murderer kill Marshmallow Marshall? Or does the escort block mean that wouldn't happen?
This is important, because if this set of moves makes mason leader visit blink but fail, then the simply act of visiting blink would have exposed him to the mass murderer and that would kill him.
TL;DR If MM visits blink, and mass murderer visits blink, then MM would be death. This would mean we have a confirmed godfather witch.
@Distorted what is your role? If you're a town power, you don't have to claim the actual role. Just tell us you are a town power. If you are a citizen, tell us you are a citizen. You logged on before and didn't reveal role. Why?
@Noz_Bugs what is your role? If you keep being afk for these games I don't think they should let you play. If you don't wanna answer ok, but I haven't seen you log on in a long time.
Also - how do I see the postcount here?
Hello and welcome to the OoO of the game! OoO means Order of Operations, and is not an emote. OzyWho, don't say I didn't explain it this time or I beat your head with a shovel after the game...
Day End Actions
A. Jailkeeper Jails
B. Earthbinder Binds
Night End Actions
1. Misdirection Witch misdirects
2. Cyromage Freezes
3. Visionary/Sheriff investigations
4. Union Conversion
5. Challenger Protection
6. Anti-Mage and Jailkeeper kills
7. All witch kills
8. Pyromancer Mark
9. Silencer Silences
10. Field Surgeon Heals
11. Detective Investigates
Escort blocking means that I don't visit. Aka you can't use it to prove there is or is not a MM in the game.
My spirit animal: https://youtu.be/fNugZU61EXI
The likelihood that there are two underectable Witches is lower than the probability that there are 2 killing roles (about 2-4% if memory serves), so at least one of the Witches is detectable. The likelihood that Ozy had the misfortune of checking the undetectable Rational Arcanist is 20%; the likelihood I am a town role is 80%.
The likelihood I posted about the two killing roles is numerically wrong; it is 9%.
I see not much has happened in the last ~10 hours.
I guess I will say where I stand with things since I see nothing else to talk yet.
@Magoroth
Considering everything being random: 40% chance I hit a scum and 25% of that 40% that the scum was GF. Additional 2.2% chanced that I was witched. It's only 12.2% chance that Mag is a scum.
I am not going to complicate my life on a 12.2% chance. Mag stays confirmed townie in my eyes.
However, Mag is not very helpful for town in comparison to Soviet or Distorted.
@Soviet_Love
If Soviet is a scum - he deserves this win. I am not complicating things on the off chance that Soviet might be a scum.I don't think anyone could possibly think that he is not a townie.
If anyone besides Mag and Soviet claims citizen - I vote him up.
@Noz_Bugz
If this was SC2Maf and he was a townie: I would consider his playstyle (Not even claiming when so close to being lynched) a gamethrow. Which is why I have this idea, that perhaps the host would have replaced him if he was a townie?
@Marshmallow Marshall and @Distorted
Well, Distorted has definitely posted more useful information and ideas. However, him not claiming 12 hours ago when he was here after my post - that makes him a little bit suspicious. He mentioned he has a bbq, but if he had time to post then he had time to claim.
MM - I don’t think he has posted much in the way of useful information or ideas for town, while having the most posts of all. He helps players and posts some general questions that town needs to think about. But to me - that’s not enough to not be suspicious. Distorted and Soviet are trying to move town forward, at least I can FEEL their involvement. Can’t say the same about MM.
---
Should we lynch today?
I think that our best play is to abstain again, however - I can’t see much reason not to lynch Noz.
We need 4 votes to lynch and as active as we are - I honestly do think we might not get those 4 votes if we decided to lynch.
When we lynch?
In 20 hours.
Whom we lynch?
Noz or MM.
Judge discussion? Nah - no Judge yet so no Judge ever.
Would no kill Night 2 prove that the killer was MM and therefore Mag is confirmed as not GF? Yes, because if we lynch evil today and no kill at night, we would not be at MyLo, which is bad for Scums.
Don’t know what else to say.
Hurry up people. Start to claim roles! Prolonging it only makes you more suspicious.
My spirit animal: https://youtu.be/fNugZU61EXI
My spirit animal: https://youtu.be/fNugZU61EXI
@Distorted , you are the people person while Soviet is the math guy.
Can you tell what you think of post #49?
Because I have that itching feeling that a real town would keep it to himself and his last will.
My spirit animal: https://youtu.be/fNugZU61EXI
ahh just caught up. I'm a citizen. Was thinking but didn't get to this post D1 a judge if the scum had one would call to force a misslynch on me. (I may or may not have been playing board games last night)
"I don't take advice from people less successful than me"
~Kanye West
Regarding a possible Judge: the Judge may, like its counterpart in the mod, call court. However, he does NOT get any extra votes. There’s 4 townies and two witches; if I were a Judge in this setup, I would either use my ability on D1 or on D3- on MyLo.
-vote Noz_Bugz
My spirit animal: https://youtu.be/fNugZU61EXI
Citizen Magoroth
Citizen Soviet_Love
Citizen Noz_Bugz
TPR Marshmallow Marshall, union leader
TPR OzyWho, sheriff
Citizen Blinkskater (dead)
Killing witch
Unknown witch
(1) There are too many citizen claims.
(2) @Distorted has not claimed a role.
Before day ends, I would be in favor of lynching either Magoroth or Noz_Bugz. They both have been my scummiest, and given that they both claimed citizen I know that one of them must be scum.
Magaroth has been (supposedly) invested by Ozy and come up not suspicious.
Noz_Bugz has been afk like all game.
I also have a hunch our killing role is godfather, so they would come up as not suspicious to an invest. I don't have a definite lead on that, but just a hunch. If it's a mass murderer we would know tonight because there wouldn't be a kill - but I don't think I want to wait long enough to find out.
@Gyrlander when you say that we know who died, but not how, does that apply to deaths by Arson as well? In the past, games I've been in where Arson wins (see: last game with blink) the host writes something about how people died in flames or some flavor text to say it's arson.
(Asking because if it's an arson and a mass murderer, then mass murderer killed night 1 while arson doused, and night 2 mass murderer couldn't kill but arson could conceivably ignite).
@Gyrlander when you say that we know who died, but not how, does that apply to deaths by Arson as well? In the past, games I've been in where Arson wins (see: last game with blink) the host writes something about how people died in flames or some flavor text to say it's arson.
I forgot to do greentext.
One thing I like about Magoroth's claim is that he tries to argue for what town should do, giving his list of reads, and has support from Ozy. Although I don't know if I fully trust it because I have a hunch there's a godfather amongst us, I like that there is support.
I do not thing Noz_Bugz has contributed much of anything to move this game forward, take the spotlight away from town power roles, or otherwise indicate that he is a town and wants to work with the town. For those reasons, Noz_Bugz continues to be my primary suspect although I am torn between the two.
We still have 31 hours so plenty of time to lynch
I find something very fishy. If Marshmallow is Scum, then who is the real second TPR?
Another thing: ifthere is a Mass Murderer, we should lynch the other Witch so that a MM attack will be postponed till N3.
Yeah, we need @Distorted to claim. If you are a TPR and don't want to reveal your role, that's ok. Just tell us if you claim TPR or citizen. It is important for town. More important than protecting your special TPR role.
My spirit animal: https://youtu.be/fNugZU61EXI
My spirit animal: https://youtu.be/fNugZU61EXI
Good point, if we have a good-guy escort we could block it. So far, two people have claimed TPR and neither claimed escort so I have a feeling that there is a Consort. Also, I'm not assming distorted is either - Ozy or MM may have lied about their TPR role. Hell, even Magaroth or Noz might be the consort - we can't have 3 citizens.
Your math with the 12.2% doesn't make sense. Either Noz, Magoroth, or I are a scum. It's a fact. We can't have that many citizens. Therefore we should focus our suspicions here.
Moreover, I get that you got not suspicious and this is a big sign. But if he is godfather, he would be not suspicious. I think we have 1 godfather scum, and 1 consort. That is my biggest suspicion at the moment. And so I think either Noz or Magoroth are a godfather/consort. One is probably clean and one isn't. I don't quite know how to c alculate it, but it isn't pure chance anymore like it used to be (the 2.2%) - we know some roles now. I'm saying even if you checked him, he might be godfather that could skew your results.
I think it's evidence for his innocence, but I'm not convinced by it.
Right. Speaking for myself, and from my own perspective, only one of you is telling the truth - Soviet or Noz. The other one is lying.
Also, it's possible 2/3 of us are scum (noz,magoroth, and I) because maybe distorted will even claim citizen.
We need @Distorted to log on and claim!
@Gyrlander , are we allowed to check other games in which players who were present in this game participated? You know, to learn their playstyle and things like that?
Also I just want to put this out there - I am also potentially suspicious that there was no roleblock on MM and that MM is arsonist and has someone doused. It would fit with all other information.
I'm not saying this is likely, but it's a possibility.
@OzyWho : get your vote off Noz, for now, please. We don’t want to lynch anyone just yet. We have several hours ahead of us, no need to lynch just yet.
@Soviet_Love , if we happen to lynch a mass murderer today - can the other witch kill on Night2? (since he wasn't the one that killed last night)
If so, is it worth considering me not checking anyone at night so 2 townies don’t die?
@Magoroth , no. And for the record - you will become my prime suspect if Distorted claims citizen.
My spirit animal: https://youtu.be/fNugZU61EXI