So from my seat, the possibilities for why there was no kill are:
A. town~Doctor MM successfully protected BG Frinckles.
B. Mafia either chose not to attack or forgot to cast their night action. This seems unlikely.
C. scum~Escort Loldebite lied about their target and can thereby frame me or whoever they wanted. But it seems odd to chose CS to be the first town role to target for framing, especially since my flip would incriminate Loldebite. But they get plausible defense later on by claiming we are in scenario A or B (or D) and "oopsies".
D. scum~Coach Driver Luona swapped me with someone who is GF, then lied about targets in order to conceal the real roleblock and to frame a townie (me), with the plausible deniability later on that we are in scenario A, B, or C. If scum~CD did bus GF with me here, then it is compulsory to not reveal the true swap as that outs their GF. It is possible for GF to be the scum~Coach Driver herself (and swapping self with me to appear NS to Sheriff, to avoid vigi shot).
A is most probable in my view. To everyone else, it's between A and the scenario that im GF and got RBed, which is not terrible except when I know the latter to be false.
If you want to really get in depth about who could be associated with PQR, Auwt makes sense.
PQR has been avoiding interacting with him lately and Auwt is trying his hardest to dissasociate from him after both of them went hard after Gikkle yesterday.
Gikkle could have some scum equity, but then we'd have to suppose he was bussed there pretty hard. Also, if my reasoning is correct, PQR was given the Mafia factional kill because nobody would think to roleblock him. If Gikkle were scum it would also make sense for him to be given the Mafia kill as he doesn't technically have an ability yet but this seemingly wasn't the case.
I've decided to keep the idea of you or Luona lying simplified because it introduced 10 billion complicated problems. Both of you, as soon as you got online, provided a reasonable explanation for your actions.
At no point in time was Luona told to swap MM specifically with Oliver, but it was the correct play 100%. She's been amicable and helpful since I got over my BDphobia on D1.
At no point in time was PQR suspected to be roleblocked, because there was no plausible reason as to why he would be. Everyone who could provide feedback did. You never technically counterclaimed anyone's feedback, which I somewhat expected to happen.
AND IF IM BEING HONEST. PQR has been on the bottom half of my readslist since D1. So to me, this all fits into place well.
(๑˃̵ᴗ˂̵)ﻭ 레드벨벳 ! ! ٩(♡ε♡ )۶
Now that I think about it, it is possible that we are in scenario B and mafia team does not include Escort and is attempting a two-fer gambit whereby anyone that Escort visited will be suspect and so they can lynch me D2 and then have town~Escort vig-killed or voted off D3? And there are already people "concluding" that I must be GF, so this might be quite a brilliant big brain play there.
True. If PQR+Auwt really are on a team together that's scary on it's own but it does make some sense. I understand you appreciate them because they voted with you on Gikkle but consider alternatives to the Thunderdome you've been indulging in.
A: Extremely unlikely.
B: Unlikely.
C: I'm Loldebite will be lynched or Oberon will jail+kill him if you flip town.
D: Luona is locked into a protection chain with me and MM. If at any point MM is dead, she dies. Thanks quoting me verbatim D1 about scum plausible deniability from a BD. Yet, you ignored my requests D1 to lynch Luona in favor of keeping it around, didn't you?
(๑˃̵ᴗ˂̵)ﻭ 레드벨벳 ! ! ٩(♡ε♡ )۶
I think auwt is scum with PQR only if they skipped the kill. Because yes, even if PQR is actually scum, they might've skipped a kill and i happened to block scumPQR by luck...
I am starting to think they skipping the quite is quite likely, actually. Less likely than PQR getting c*ckblocked but i'd put it more likely than scum targetting BG
@Frinckles . It doesnt make any sense. Why would they insist on the Gikkle train when they could've just joined my train. Lol
I was wrong, you are correct.
Coach Driver
The Veteran is swapped with the Mayor by the Coach Driver. The Doctor, the Lookout, the Vigilante, the Escort, the Bodyguard, the Sheriff, and the Survivalist Bandit all target the Mayor. The Jailor jailed the Mayor during the day and chooses to execute. The Card Sharp invited the Mayor to a card game during the day. What happens?
The Card Sharp is notified that the Mayor cannot join the card game at the start of the night.
The Mayor is jailed by the Jailor at the start of the night.
The Coach Driver, the Doctor, the Vigilante, and the Sheriff all die to the Veteran.
The Survivalist and the Bodyguard die to both the Veteran and the Bodyguard duel.
The Lookout sees the Coach Driver, the Escort, and the Jailor visit the Mayor.
The Mayor is roleblocked by the Escort.
The Mayor is executed by the Jailor.
Well, are you town? If you are, why do you think scum would want to jump onto a town-mayor-lynch at the last minute?
Instead, they could push the narrative that Gikkle was evil the whole time and then we'd be going down the rabbit hole. Keep in mind, I last minute voted you and Oberon was ABOUT to.
(๑˃̵ᴗ˂̵)ﻭ 레드벨벳 ! ! ٩(♡ε♡ )۶
I'm not convinced. I'm 100% sure the bandits are on my train.
The only way no-killing makes sense is if either Mike and or Light_Yagami are scum as well. Every single night that we get checks, the game gets closer to a solve. I did mention a theory about how Auwt+Mike+Light+Oliver scumteam could 'clear' themselves on N1, but I mean... come on.
(๑˃̵ᴗ˂̵)ﻭ 레드벨벳 ! ! ٩(♡ε♡ )۶
I'm pushing Gikkle. Gives more info to town.
Let Vigi decides PQ fate.
You don't think bandits could be on the opposite train? Why did Oberon vote for Gikkle and then jail you? You understand he was pivoting to flip and vote for you anyway right? I put you at L-1, his vote would have hammered you for majority.
Did you forget this?
Do you think it's plausible that, if you're town:
-They wanted to remove you and your votes from the game.
or
-Be seen at the good side of things by letting you live.
(๑˃̵ᴗ˂̵)ﻭ 레드벨벳 ! ! ٩(♡ε♡ )۶
We lynch Gikkle and jmw shoot PQ tonight.
This way everyone is happy.
If PQ survives, that means either :
1) MM healed him, in which case suspicious.
2) Loldebite roleblocked jmw, in which case suspicious.
3) jmw can't kill his scum buddy.
Agree lmao this is the most confusing part. Vet is the perfect KP. Why would they give it to PQ. Answer this @Frinckles
Nope. From my side, A is likely about 70%, B is ~20% or higher and is not mutually exclusive of C (or even D) because they get plausible deniability. I had my D1 scum read and stuck to it, but I had not thought through all of the mechanical scenarios that might unfold later on. It did not occur to me to consider lynching based on potential mechanics and "what if" scenarios, I went with my read of the player (Gikkle) instead. And I would do it again, as mechanics-based D1 lynch is a bit too rich for me.
From other town seats, A is probably about 40%, B (and others) 15% or higher, PQR as mafia killing 35%. And depending on whom you ask, that 35% might go up to 60-70%% depending on where your mind is at, in combination with reads.
So PQR, I don't see your vote on Gikkle are you okay?
Do you need to be hit by a bullet to recover what you did D1 (pushing Gikkle) ?
Even if veteran is a marginally better selection for a killer, Auwt+PQR don't nessecarily have to be teamed although I think it's likely.
Not only that but I've outlined how selecting PQR's role to do it makes perfect sense. And both are visible to Lookouts.
(๑˃̵ᴗ˂̵)ﻭ 레드벨벳 ! ! ٩(♡ε♡ )۶
Now can you agree that lyncing Gikkle and "maybe" shooting PQ is one way to go??
Incriminiating PQ today would give us 0 info. You said Auwt is associated with PQ if flipped bandit. But PQ having KP doesnt make any sense at all if Auwt can initiate the kill. Basic mechanicz
Auwt makes a good observation regardless of whether it's honest or a bus. PQR is locked up, not voting, trying to explain away common sense and we still don't know what his grand strategy for his night chat was.
(๑˃̵ᴗ˂̵)ﻭ 레드벨벳 ! ! ٩(♡ε♡ )۶
From my POV A is <10%. As scum i dont think i'd target MM once in 10 games.
Also, what were your reads on gikkle/jmw ? Why did you push them to the point of refusing to vote anyone else, if you've explained it somewhere i missed it, sorry., if you did not, i'd like finally to hear it.
(๑˃̵ᴗ˂̵)ﻭ 레드벨벳 ! ! ٩(♡ε♡ )۶