I mean that your play isn’t obvtown or agenday if that makes sense.
Iow, you don’t seem to be clearly taking any stand.
What do you think about Buster, Lol and Awt?
I only have meta on one player here and unless he’s playing the scumgame of his life, he’s probably town and we seem to be mindmelding.
I’d also like to get opinions on Frinkles as well but for now.
-vote BusterCannon
The push on Ren seems over the top to me.
Also I've yet to gauge him as a player, so I can't speak of his playstyle at the moment.
But Occam's Razer.....
I am trying to see it from his POV. What would make him say that? His pushes and refusal to explain his accusations is even weirder, because that is what FM is for. Making a case, and lynch mafia. If you are just saying ok this guy is scum, that's fine, but what are the reasons? If you see something that we do not, you gotta convince us. you know?
The easiest answer would be that he is straight out of arcade where a slightest hint of disagreeable statement can be regarded as suspicious, and anyone who tries to defend that is easily punished by the mob. I think that is what happened? That is the only explanation I can think of. If that is the case, he is town. He doubles down on his day 1 read so I don't know if he actually believes those, or
He is Chaos Exe, but I doubt this is the case because it's too obvious?
Slightly less obvious option might be the Jester. A player who is playing Jester wants to be eliminated but by making other players believe that lynching the Jester is their idea. You could probably go about this in many different ways, but an obvious jester would make outrageous comments and being stuborn about it without writing anything too AI. I mean, jesters are WIFOM central so I don't think I need to explain.
Him being a mafia pretending to be the jester/exe is an option there too. If he is a jester, town wouldn't really prioritize lynching him unless he actually becomes a liability. That is a pretty big smokescreen.
Anyway, the more and more I think about it, and read his posts, I feel Buster is actually more town than jester.
At the outset of the game, when there are a total of 13 players, the chances of any individual player being a townsperson are determined by the ratio of town players to the overall player count. In this case, with 8 town players, the initial probability of any player being a townsperson is 61.5%. This means that, statistically speaking, there is a slightly higher likelihood for a player to belong to the town faction.
However, as the game progresses and players are eliminated during the daytime, the ratio of town players to the remaining total players changes. If, for instance, one player gets eliminated during the day, the new ratio becomes 7 town players out of 12 total players.
Consequently, the probability of an individual player being town-aligned decreases to 58.3%. This shift in probabilities reflects the fact that with one player eliminated, there is a relatively lower chance of any given player being on the town side.
Furthermore, the probabilities continue to evolve when nighttime actions, such as killings or other relevant events, take place. Let's say a player gets killed during the night phase, leaving 6 town players out of 11 remaining players. As a result, the likelihood of any individual player being a townsperson diminishes further to 54.5%.
One crucial aspect of this particular game, which sets it apart from an arcade or other forms of gameplay, is the availability of ample time to meticulously analyze and evaluate all the information being exchanged among the players. This extended duration allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the dynamics at play and affords the opportunity to adjust the probabilities associated with each player accordingly.
It is indeed refreshing to witness your recognition and understanding of the fact that different players may adopt distinct playstyles or strategies, and it is unnecessary to excessively dwell on such variations. By acknowledging this diversity and adapting one's analysis accordingly, a player can make more informed decisions and better assess the probabilities associated with each participant in the game.
-vote yoshida
No I’m not defending Renegade but I’m not voting someone without a reason. So tell us why Ren is “evil”. Make you case and if it’s convincing, maybe I’ll change my vote.
I especially don’t understand why your suspicious of ikarus. Nothing about their posting is remotely pinging me.
Buster is pointing the finger as hurriedly as they can, perhaps in the effort that, eventually, the finger will be pointed right back. Pretty sure this is just a Jester.
Morning
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I have become more confident in Ikaru town after reading the posts since I was last on
@Renegade do you have any thoughts currently? My vote was a joke but I don't really like your reaction to pressure (even though buster's reasoning isn't great) so far.
The discourse with Buster about me in particular (on page 7) felt very genuine to me
And also just his thoughts regarding buster on the top of page 6 and the rapid fire nature in which he posted felt like someone without TMI looking at someone and having a genuine reaction to buster's weird playstyle. Like the offhanded comment "do we have a vig" when talking about buster is the sort of thing that I see coming from town far more than a wolf, and especially compared to his KRC scum game it feels incredibly genuine.
Frinckles what are you thinking rn?
Whoever suggested sheriff is probably town though because I think mafia are probably super scared of that as a possibility (if in a town's hands, it certainly is a very powerful investigative), and since it wasn't really being talked about most mafia I think would feel like they could get away with just pushing for something else.
Not really liking Italiano
maybe it's just because they've said three times now that they don't like mechanics, but they definitely feel a bit weird
@Frinckles
Why are Loldebite and Italiano town?
And by "neutral" for Renegade, does that mean you think they are the exe/jester, or do you mean they are null?
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oh. i think i had panda marked as town right before i died so my meta read would be crap. anyway, i don't think we need to hunt neutrals either but the weird role suggestions probably would come from those slots. i don't even think wolves would have the balls to suggest something like gunsmith. on top of that, like i said about KRC; wolves will shoot and lynch eachother left and right. i don't wanna deal with that.
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well me and loldebite were shmoovin' on the role ideas.
i was kind of more on the fence when italiano put this out because it's either a wolf projecting what wolves are thinking or legitimate concern about how they'd play. but im always thinking what wolves would be planning so i just marked them town. the mentor role vote was whack though. caroler is way better
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oh yeah and Hollowkatt used a gundam wing pfp for a while (i think) so that's probably where that confusion came from
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