Spoiler : wall :
Quote Originally Posted by Seanzie View Post
If you are town here, you are simplifying the situation down too far. We have the ability to get a significant boost over scum using the plan as laid out.
The plan doesn't really work if people can just go off-book and either shoot other people or not shoot at all, and we lose that significant boost. As is, the plan already has an unfortuante chance of not giving us as good of a boost as we might want simply due to RNG and timezones, but adding extra non-shots (and in particular the ability for wolves to strategically non-shoot) is just making the whole situation worse.

Think about it like this... what do you think is more beneficial to town... to have 1 person die by TK or to have each person have a 1/15-accuracy shot? IMO the 1 person TK death is much more valuable to town - it forces us to work together and it makes it harder for wolves to hide since town naturally is incentivized to create wagons, which are then readable, and scum has to work around that, and looking at movements among the wagons is all helpful. On the other hand, 1/15-accuracy shots do not promote the same sort of wagon effects and it is easy for scum to find a reason to scumread or townread a single person (weither it be because they want to shoot someone or not shoot someone), whereas it is harder for them to explain why they wanted to push one wagon over another, etc...

Now, I know that 1 guaranteed TK vs 1/15-accuracy shots is not exactly what you and a few others are proposing, but the proposal pushes us away from 1 guaranteed TK and close to 1/15 accuracy shots, and I believe the EV is monotonic in the sense that the closer we are to 1 guaranteed TK, the more EV we have, the further, the less. This is especially true since at this point, town really doesn't seem to care about the wagons moving into the artificial deadline, because you know what? if they don't like the person chosen, they just don't shoot. That takes all of the pressure of the artifical deadline, removes a significant value-add from said pressure, and makes it so even if no one shoots outside our targets, the number of shots that go off is going to be low (already we're working against timezones and activity, now we have to work against reads as well? We might as well just all agree to holster the ITAs... idk what you expect to happen, but I have been strategically silent about how much coordination we actually need to try to get 2 TKs here. The way things are going, I don't even really expect to get one unless we're exceedingly lucky... especially considering how many people have anxiety about making a big decision... now you've given those people a decision to make, so even more shots aren't going to be fired just because people have agency and not acting unless forced to is easier than acting for many people).


We already have 1 TK. The lynch.
The points about the pressure are very valid, but on D1 i sincerely don't think much good can come out of it. The discussion being somewhat stale is not ONLY because people have fewer pressure, it's also (mostly?) because no one is convinced about his vote because it's D1.