Can't wait to be called scum by Oberon + blink for "information posting"
Town Power Role Claims (That is people that claimed to have started as a power role, not leveled up)
- Frinckles - claims Archer tracked Yuesford visiting blink, leveled up
- WrathCyber - claims Rogue, hid behind #2
- Oberon - claims Knight checked MM as Shadow, leveled up
Level Up Claims
- blinkskater - claims leveled up villager and chose Paladin (unable to use night action - which as clarified by Auwt, Auwt initially made a mistake, and this is actually what happens when a villager levels up)
Villager Claims
- LagAttack
- theoneceko
- CRichard
- Yuesford (Some people are saying he softed-Magus, but both ceko and I having played with him a lot in the mod read this more as sarcasm)
- PQR
- #2
Extra-Believable Villager Claims
No Role Claims
Other Claims
- MM claims to have been roleblocked
Based on this, here's what we can deduce pretty-confidently:
- (blinkskater was leveled up by Magus) OR (blinkskater is scum AND a scum was leveled up by Magus)
- There is at least 1 liar among Oberon, Frinckles, and WrathCyber
Things we can NOT have any confidence in beyond just reads:
Magus level up notification is received at the start of the night, and it is received by everyone, including shadows and including people already at max level (Darkness). Therefore if Magus leveled up EITHER of the shadows OR the Darkness, then they would have told their scummates this in night chat. They could have then chosen blinkskater to be the one to fake-claim leveled up (Magus can't CC it without immediately getting outed). They could have left the option to fake-claim a level up open - so any of them could claim it if they come under fire. Blinkskater could have actually have been Shadow/Darkness that received the level up and therefore no need to fake-claim level up, just claim town that was leveled up.
This scenario in particular seems even more likely to me because he chose Paladin - if he were so absolutely positive on his scumread on me, why not just choose knight to get a free level 2??
But that last point aside, it's still not possible to know that blinkskater is town, just that he was the one leveled up.
Another very important piece of mechanics:
If Yuesford is Magus and Frinckles isn't lying about the visit - then the visit was NOT visiting blink to level him up - that visit is done during the DAY and therefore invisible to Archer/Watchful Ranger.
It
could have been Magus visiting his freshly minted town power role to protect them -
but given the fact that scum has literally no way to kill a town power role on night 1 - that seems kind of unlikely.
I think working off of the fact that there is
at least one liar among Frinckles, WrathCyber, Oberon is the best place to start.
Is there one liar among the group? Or multiple?
Given that there haven't been any other town power role CC's, I think it is safe to say that two of those three are TPR.
That leaves the third being
most likely Templar - but also possibly scum (eg Shaman brewing for a two-for-one suicide deal as ceko mentioned)
Scenarios:
Oberon is not the liar
If Oberon is not the liar then MM is scum 100% - not too much more to analyze here.
Oberon IS the liar
I don't think scum~Oberon makes nearly as much sense as templar~Oberon in this case. Only way scum~Oberon would work here is if he's banking on people reading his play as too scummy to be scum or something
Frinckles is not the liar
If Frinckles is not lying then Yuesford is. Which makes Yuesford either Magus, Darkness, Fanatic, or Slime
Slime only makes sense with templar~blinkskater - since why would slime visit someone who wasn't being leveled down?
Fanatic~Yuesford or Darkness~Yuesford means we have scum~blinkskater
Magus~Yuesford doesn't make much sense, since if blink was the one leveled up,
then Ground Magus is really the only form that makes sense,
but Shadows have no way to kill a town power role on night 1 anyway,
so why waste the ground magus state WHICH CAN ONLY BE USED ONCE IN THE WHOLE GAME on a night where blink literally could not have died?
Frinckles IS the liar
This explains Yuesford claiming villager. Because he's therefore villager.
I have no idea if this makes Frinckles Templar or Scum though
WrathCyber is not the liar
Nothing very interesting here - other than it means that either Frinckles or Oberon are liars. Although not interesting - this would be surprising, since I think templar~WrathCyber is particularly likely.
Earlier he was saying that Frinckles shouldn't bother checking him, because as Rogue he would just get redirected to whoever Wrath was hiding behind. When I corrected him saying that then Frinckles would see Wrath visiting himself - Wrath had nothing to say about this, when he could have easily have been excited at the opportunity to be auto-confirmed - I think this was a slip indicating Wrath is the liar of the three.
WrathCyber IS the liar
I think in this scenario, templar~WrathCyber is far more likely than scum~WrathCyber.
It also means we have a likely scum team of MM/Yuesford/blinkskater