S-FM 303: Summer 2020 (Newbie Game)

[MartinGG99]

Consider my vote on Auwt for now, I will probably stick my vote down around 4ish hours from now, then I'm out for the rest of the day.

Well it seemed everyone was rather active, at least early in the morning for me. And considering Bakermir, Ash Lael, and Grakylan tend to up at the night (from my PoV), as it's 10 AM for me right now.

I see no problem in hammering right now, rather than at 5PM. It just seems like a better time slot for everyone who might live till D3 and D4.

-vote Auwt

[The Godfather]

Auwt has been lynched! Stand by for the host's review and day-end post!


Auwt (4 [L-0]): Ash Lael, bakermir, Drizzt, MartinGG99
MartinGG99 (1 [L-3]): deathworlds

[SuperJack]

Auwt was Citizen. Night starts at 10 bst

[SuperJack]

Night ends in

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DAYS HOURS MINUTES SECONDS

[SuperJack]

Day Three

Grakylan was murdered. They was a
Detective

They had a last will written in

Spoiler : Last Will :

.

Grak the Det. Bakmir did not visit anyone N1. Tracking Martin N2.

I could have tracked Ash instead, but decided he may just be luring mafia to a WIFOM situation.

Here's why I think Martin is Scum.

Martin has already gained some of your trust. And now in a Lylo situation he will push the wrong guy.
OR Martin and his scum partner (most likely DW) may have agreed to sacrifice the partner tomorrow and gain EVEN more trust from you guys to leave you confused as he picks you off one by one while looking like a confirmed town.

I've been telling you the whole game hes a scumbag. And only now when I'm dead that you are willing to listen?

Check posts 1015,1088,1093.
Martin didn't even choose his own calculated "most combo eliminating" lynch (4-combo Helltenis/Drizzt or 3-combo Dallarian/DW), hammering 2-combo Auwt just cause the town felt like bandwagoning him.

And check post 540.
Martin decided not to ISO Zedus cuz "muh bias." I read that as "don't ask questions, lynch Zedus". Look where that got us.

I'm tired of Martin controlling the town. And I feel like tomorrow on Lylo Day, he may seize our desperation for his own ends.
Lynch Martin tomorrow.

On a side note:

Keep in mind that Drizzt cheered on Auwt (even when voting him). Look at post 1139 and 1116. He may have detected the town vibes from him.
That was after Auwt voted someone then unvoted a post later, similar to something I did D1 that Ash criticized on post 72.

I still say pressure Ash for his leads or if hes an investigative or protective if hes a TPR. Just to be sure he isn't lying. We need all hands on deck.

3 votes to hammer.

Rolelist	Alive Players	Graveyard
Mafia Any Mafia Any Town Any Town Any Town Any Citizen Citizen Citizen Citizen	3. Dallarian @deathworlds 4. @MartinGG99 5. Helltanis @Drizzt 8. @Ash Lael 9. @bakermir	6. @Zedus - Citizen 2. @Renegade - Doctor @Auwt - Citizen @Grakylan - Detective

DAY ENDS IN

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QuickLinks
LINK TO SETUP
PostCount
Day One
Day Two
Day Three

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[MartinGG99]

Unfortunately, I had hoped grakylan would live. I made this huge post just calculating my suspicions based on what he did :

I believe that the scum team may be revealed depending on what happens, and more importantly, if Graklyan lived and who he checks as detective.

The only possible scum combos I see now (from my PoV): Drizzt + Deathworlds (More likely) OR Grakylan + Bakermir (Much Less likely, but still possible if Town Any citizen):

Spoiler : If Grakylan Lives (Multi-Spoiler) :

Spoiler : Grakylan checked Deathworlds or Drizzt & Finds nothing :

That doesn't mean they're innocent. An unfortunate fact of this setup is that with two mafia members, one can choose to not act while the other kills. Since I know I'm town, and the two combo possibilities above, I'm voting Deathworlds + Drizzt.

Spoiler : Grakylan checked Deathworlds or Drizzt & Finds something :

Well, it’s obvious. They're Scum. From my PoV, Deathworlds or Drizzt being scum means the other is scum as well.

Spoiler : Grakylan checked MartinGG99 and finds nothing :

Well, I'm proven!.......not really. The unfortunate fact is that scum have an option to not act since they have two members. One can kill, the other can simply not use their power. I'm going to vote for Deathworlds + Drizzt though, since I know I'm town.

Spoiler : Grakylan checked MartinGG99 and finds something :

Well, I don't know what to tell ya. Unless there's a bus driver, it has to be Grakylan + Bakermir, as Grakylan just lied to my face about being detective. Don't forget the person he "checked" night 1 was Bakermir.

Spoiler : Grakylan checked Ash Lael :

Wait, why did he check Ash? Didn't we just establish on D2 that its the citizen claims are suspicious and power claims are mechanically proven? Its Grakylan + Bakermir.

Spoiler : If Grakylan Died :

Well, if Grakylan died, and Ash has nothing to contribute with his power role, then I'm going with the definitive possibility of Drizzt + Deathworlds. Looks like I have to convince you guys to lynch whatever scum mate you guys propose that I would be teamed with, if you all suspect me more than anything else. I'm leaning towards Deathworlds as a preference. However, since they're both scum, I don't care which way we do it.

Don't forget that since Grakylan is dead, that de-facto disproves Grakylan + Bakermir.

I've removed the possibilities that Grakylan is tied to Deathworlds or Drizzt, because I feel its unlikely Grakylan would've lied about Bakermir (a townie) on n1 if he was scum hiding as "detective", along with the unlikely possibility of Town Any citizen (whereas if scum Bakermir+Grakylan, the lie makes sense). In the off chance that one of the above options that incriminates Bakemir+Grakylan occurs, you now know the reason why I think it must be him and Bakermir and not connected at all to Drizzt and Deathworlds.
As you can see, my reads largely depend on what Grakylan says, and if he lives or dies.
Town-locked Ash Lael
Very Town-lean on Grakylan/Bakermir
Very Scum-lean on Drizzt/Deathworlds
Unless, of course, Grakylan does something that is incriminating of the Grakylan/Bakermir duo, in which case my Town-Lean and Scum-Lean reads switch places.
Oh, and don't even try to suggest Ash is scum (if anyone was planning to, like Auwt). If he is, then he has played well and deserves the win.


Obviously, since Grakylan died, I choose to believe Drizzt + Deathworlds as the scum team.

[MartinGG99]

Also, here's all the read progressions (in a spreadsheet format, in individual pics) of everyone in the game, including the dead, as of N2. Each notes the post # for each read. Some reads used slightly ambiguous wording so I tried my best to guess them correctly. Black cells indicate that either that's the person doing the read in the picture (otherwise they would be reading themselves lol), or that they're dead and can't do any more reads (This doesn't include the N2 victim, Grakylan).

Spoiler : Auwt (Dead) :

Spoiler : Ash Leal :

Spoiler : Bakermir :

Spoiler : Dallarian/deathworlds :

Spoiler : Grakylan (dead; img not updated) :

Spoiler : Helltanis/Drizzt :

Spoiler : MartinGG99 :

Spoiler : Renegade (Dead) :

Spoiler : Zedus (Dead) :

[MartinGG99]

If you're going to lynch me today guys, I cannot blame you. I had some difficulty believing myself that Drizzt was scum, but for me now that's mechanically proven in my PoV. I had treated Helltanis too lightly in the early game (D1), and I failed in that. However, I do wish to post a side note here just in case you guys end up deciding to lynch me today or on D4:

Honestly, this game has been really fun for me, but its saddening that Zedus tunneled on me like hell and then Auwt somehow felt that not-claiming an exact TPR role was suspicious somehow? I mean, technically there's room for considering possibility in that there was a Town Any citizen, but the chances of it being Ash? Very low.

I get the feeling that both Zedus and Auwt came into this game thinking -Mafia- mod strategies and etc were to be expected to be useful in the forum game. Zedus thought day 1 lynches were supsicious, and they are in the mod. Auwt thought no direct role claim is suspicious, and they usually are in late game for the mod, or when you're on trial in the mod. Unfortunately for them, Forum Mafia is a lot different from the mod, but has some similar principles. But knowing which principles exist only in Forum Mafia or the mod -Mafia- is crucial.

I'm quite thankful I've done my research or studying prior to the game, but unfortunately, I just didn't do enough research on the early game, or at least how to put my thoughts into words. But please know, even if you lynch me today and therefore end the game, I'm quite thankful for the experience. I would like to thank you @Auwt and @Zedus for trying your best, even if it was disagreeable for most. I hope we all can learn from this game and become better versions of ourselves. And I would like to thank @Ash Lael the most, for without his watchful eye I may have never noticed the many problems and mistakes that I made as a townie – namely on day 1.

And finally, I would like to thank everyone one last time for this enjoyable experience, even if its the town's defeat.

[MartinGG99]

And since Ash stated earlier that he wanted those in the lynch block (Me, deathworlds, Drizzt) to vote before the town core (Ash, Grakylan, Bakermir) decided, I'm going to vote now. But it doesn't matter to me whoever we lynch first, so long as its not me.

-vote Drizzt

That's for deceiving me.

[Ash Lael]

Damn. I got juked.

[Ash Lael]

I’m a Veteran, for the record.

[Drizzt]

And since Ash stated earlier that he wanted those in the lynch block (Me, deathworlds, Drizzt) to vote before the town core (Ash, Grakylan, Bakermir) decided, I'm going to vote now. But it doesn't matter to me whoever we lynch first, so long as its not me.

-vote Drizzt

That's for deceiving me.

I'm not sure what deception you are talking about. If you explain it I'll tell my side. I'm citizen, and since I'm telling the truth I'm sure it was either an honest mistake or a misinterpretation on your part (communication with text isn't perfect). At the moment my biggest suspect is DW. I can't believe Martin would do so much work and offer to die if he wasn't town, but maybe he's just an incredible method actor.

Right now I'm looking pretty hard at voting DW. Bakemir, I followed his vote or I'd probably have voted DW to begin with. Can you provide a list of current claims? I know you've done a lot already, so a little more can't hurt

[MartinGG99]

I will always look back on this post in the game.....I imagine the setup was balanced. But the players weren't. But hey, SJ tried to fix that with a familiar setup. He did his best I bet.

The game will be balanced.

[Drizzt]

Also, here's all the read progressions (in a spreadsheet format, in individual pics) of everyone in the game, including the dead, as of N2. Each notes the post # for each read. Some reads used slightly ambiguous wording so I tried my best to guess them correctly. Black cells indicate that either that's the person doing the read in the picture (otherwise they would be reading themselves lol), or that they're dead and can't do any more reads (This doesn't include the N2 victim, Grakylan).

Spoiler : Auwt (Dead) :

Spoiler : Ash Leal :

Spoiler : Bakermir :

Spoiler : Dallarian/deathworlds :

Spoiler : Grakylan (dead; img not updated) :

Spoiler : Helltanis/Drizzt :

Spoiler : MartinGG99 :

Spoiler : Renegade (Dead) :

Spoiler : Zedus (Dead) :

Good stuff. I'm have an appointment in like 20 min but I'll review it. I'd really like confirmation from other experienced players on his data before I rely on it to make decisions this time. Can anyone verify what he's posted in whole or in part? Otherwise I'll do my best to verify it myself...

[MartinGG99]

I'm not sure what deception you are talking about. If you explain it I'll tell my side. I'm citizen, and since I'm telling the truth I'm sure it was either an honest mistake or a misinterpretation on your part (communication with text isn't perfect). At the moment my biggest suspect is DW. I can't believe Martin would do so much work and offer to die if he wasn't town, but maybe he's just an incredible method actor.

Right now I'm looking pretty hard at voting DW. Bakemir, I followed his vote or I'd probably have voted DW to begin with. Can you provide a list of current claims? I know you've done a lot already, so a little more can't hurt

Look, unless Bakermir is scum and decided to not act N1 as scum, or was bussed night 1, he's town. Ash is the last TPR claim, meaning those two are confirmed towns. Its just us, me, you, and DW. There's 2 scum left, and thats 2 out of us 3. Im sorry, but I can't trust you. You're mechanically proven scum to me. Or, in the hypothetical world that you are the town, I'm mechanically proven scum to you. There is no other way, detective ignores detection immunity.

[Ash Lael]

Okay I gotta tear myself away from the thread and get my kids ready for school.

[MartinGG99]

Look, unless Bakermir is scum and decided to not act N1 as scum, or was bussed night 1, he's town. Ash is the last TPR claim, meaning those two are confirmed towns. Its just us, me, you, and DW. There's 2 scum left, and thats 2 out of us 3. Im sorry, but I can't trust you. You're mechanically proven scum to me. Or, in the hypothetical world that you are the town, I'm mechanically proven scum to you. There is no other way, detective ignores detection immunity.

I'll vote DW if we're lynching him. But I don't want to encourage a hammer on him that would ruin our chance and time for discussion as the town.
For now though,

-unvote

Ash wanted me to declare my vote, well he wanted us.

[Drizzt]

Look, unless Bakermir is scum and decided to not act N1 as scum, or was bussed night 1, he's town. Ash is the last TPR claim, meaning those two are confirmed towns. Its just us, me, you, and DW. There's 2 scum left, and thats 2 out of us 3. Im sorry, but I can't trust you. You're mechanically proven scum to me. Or, in the hypothetical world that you are the town, I'm mechanically proven scum to you. There is no other way, detective ignores detection immunity.

You have an invalid assumption somewhere that you are basing your conclusion on. I am town, on my balls ON MY BALLS I am citizen. May they wither and fall off if I'm lying. You can call me a eunich forever. I don't have the experience to debate you too much, but if you list how I deceived you and how you are reaching the conclusion that I'm scum I'll try. Otherwise, I'm going to assume you are actually scum and you actually believe my claim. In that case I'll need to go back to bakemir and get his opinion on what to do with you over DW.

[deathworlds]

Well I can't say I'm totally shocked that scum decided to kill Grak, makes sense from a mechanical standpoint.
I am shocked that auwt didn't flip red

[deathworlds]

So ash is un CC'D tpr claim, bake didn't do anything n1, and we got two other unresolved citizen claims in Drizzt and Martin.

I really, REALLY want to believe that drizz is town, based off of Helltanis' play, but I can't imagine a world where mafia doesn't act on n1.
So that really does leave martin/drizzt, if we all agree that it isn't bake.

[MartinGG99]

You have an invalid assumption somewhere that you are basing your conclusion on. I am town, on my balls ON MY BALLS I am citizen. May they wither and fall off if I'm lying. You can call me a eunich forever. I don't have the experience to debate you too much, but if you list how I deceived you and how you are reaching the conclusion that I'm scum I'll try. Otherwise, I'm going to assume you are actually scum and you actually believe my claim. In that case I'll need to go back to bakemir and get his opinion on what to do with you over DW.

Well assuming you are citizen, like me, then there's one possibility, but i don't believe it likely. That would be Bakermir + Deathworlds. Like I said, Bakermir could've done nothing on N1 while scum, and that wouldn't have tipped off Grakylan the detective as scummy. Actually, that could make sense in some world. There was a slight reason for him to do nothing night 1, and that's because Auwt voted him day 1. Although that was just only 1 vote against Bakermir. If I were him and scum, that wouldn't convince me to do nothing. However, it is possible.

[MartinGG99]

Well assuming you are citizen, like me, then there's one possibility, but i don't believe it likely. That would be Bakermir + Deathworlds. Like I said, Bakermir could've done nothing on N1 while scum, and that wouldn't have tipped off Grakylan the detective as scummy. Actually, that could make sense in some world. There was a slight reason for him to do nothing night 1, and that's because Auwt voted him day 1. Although that was just only 1 vote against Bakermir. If I were him and scum, that wouldn't convince me to do nothing. However, it is possible.

Or i suppose in Deathworld's PoV, that's Martin + Bakermir.

[Drizzt]

So ash is un CC'D tpr claim, bake didn't do anything n1, and we got two other unresolved citizen claims in Drizzt and Martin.

I really, REALLY want to believe that drizz is town, based off of Helltanis' play, but I can't imagine a world where mafia doesn't act on n1.
So that really does leave martin/drizzt, if we all agree that it isn't bake.

I'd like to hear from Bake, Martin unvoted me, but at the end of the day I'll prob follow him as long as I agree with his logic. If we lose, we'll lose as a team.

[deathworlds]

Well assuming you are citizen, like me, then there's one possibility, but i don't believe it likely. That would be Bakermir + Deathworlds. Like I said, Bakermir could've done nothing on N1 while scum, and that wouldn't have tipped off Grakylan the detective as scummy. Actually, that could make sense in some world. There was a slight reason for him to do nothing night 1, and that's because Auwt voted him day 1. Although that was just only 1 vote against Bakermir. If I were him and scum, that wouldn't convince me to do nothing. However, it is possible.

Well it's certainly possible that bake COULD be scum. He isn't mechanically disproven, but as I said before, the bloody stars would have had to align for him to get this far.

[Drizzt]

Well assuming you are citizen, like me, then there's one possibility, but i don't believe it likely. That would be Bakermir + Deathworlds. Like I said, Bakermir could've done nothing on N1 while scum, and that wouldn't have tipped off Grakylan the detective as scummy. Actually, that could make sense in some world. There was a slight reason for him to do nothing night 1, and that's because Auwt voted him day 1. Although that was just only 1 vote against Bakermir. If I were him and scum, that wouldn't convince me to do nothing. However, it is possible.

I'd still like someone to look at your data. You could be appealing to my love of data- in my last job for the AF we relied heavily on other people for stuff we didn't know so my natural inclination is to be trusting with someone so well prepared (a weakness maybe in FM games).

[deathworlds]

I'd like to hear from Bake, Martin unvoted me, but at the end of the day I'll prob follow him as long as I agree with his logic. If we lose, we'll lose as a team.

Well I mean arguing in this 1v2 isn't going to get us anywhere because we'll all just point fingers at each other like the spiderman meme, it's probably best if we get input from bake and ash, because I'll just say you and martin are scum, martin will say that you and I are scum, and you will say that martin and I are scum. We all "know" that we're citizen.

[MartinGG99]

Well it's certainly possible that bake COULD be scum. He isn't mechanically disproven, but as I said before, the bloody stars would have had to align for him to get this far.

Exactly. Bloody stars would have to align. To be honest, I almost want to lynch him to cling onto hope that he is scum and that I'm wrong about Drizzt + Deathworlds. Helltanis just seemed too authentic to me, but then that's my failure again if Drizzt is scum in the end.

Thing is though, Dallarian/Deathworlds and Bakermir have been butting heads on occasion since early D1. So they're incredibly distanced, and that leaves me to believe that if Bakermir is scum then I am lynched day 4.

[MartinGG99]

Well I mean arguing in this 1v2 isn't going to get us anywhere because we'll all just point fingers at each other like the spiderman meme, it's probably best if we get input from bake and ash, because I'll just say you and martin are scum, martin will say that you and I are scum, and you will say that martin and I are scum. We all "know" that we're citizen.

That's another way of putting the point that I was trying to make to you @Drizzt

[deathworlds]

I really hate this puzzle solving stage of the game

[bakermir]

I will always look back on this post in the game.....I imagine the setup was balanced. But the players weren't. But hey, SJ tried to fix that with a familiar setup. He did his best I bet.

Yeah there is a low possibility with Town Any being citizen which could mean Ash is mafia. But then who is his partner? It doesn't add up. Should I expect the impossible from Ash?


I still think we have a higher chance if we lynch another citizen claim. It appears we have a lesser chance of failing today on that due to number of players on each side.


Sadly, I will be unavailable for few hours but I hope you guys prepare your cases well. I am looking forward to reading more input from you all.

[bakermir]

Well I mean arguing in this 1v2 isn't going to get us anywhere because we'll all just point fingers at each other like the spiderman meme, it's probably best if we get input from bake and ash, because I'll just say you and martin are scum, martin will say that you and I are scum, and you will say that martin and I are scum. We all "know" that we're citizen.

Oh cmon, don't be so self aware. I thought it would be fun today

[Drizzt]

Exactly. Bloody stars would have to align. To be honest, I almost want to lynch him to cling onto hope that he is scum and that I'm wrong about Drizzt + Deathworlds. Helltanis just seemed too authentic to me, but then that's my failure again if Drizzt is scum in the end.

Thing is though, Dallarian/Deathworlds and Bakermir have been butting heads on occasion since early D1. So they're incredibly distanced, and that leaves me to believe that if Bakermir is scum then I am lynched day 4.

It would teach me a valuable lesson about following someone so firmly. I'll hear what bake has to say, but so many people are saying he's almost certainly town, people who are on both sides of the fence, that his input is valuable imo.

[MartinGG99]

Sadly, I will be unavailable for few hours but I hope you guys prepare your cases well. I am looking forward to reading more input from you all.

I don't really have any more input. I've made as much input I could during N2, and that's the first three posts after the D3 post by SJ unless others have something to discuss with me (Ex: Drizzt earlier).

[Ash Lael]

Yeah there’s a tiny edge possibility of bakemir being exactly godfather, but I am never going to bet the game on that. Not when we have a 2/3 chance to hit scum in the non-insane world where it’s 2 of Martin/DW/Drizzt.

[bakermir]

I don't really have any more input. I've made as much input I could during N2, and that's the first three posts after the D3 post by SJ unless others have something to discuss with me (Ex: Drizzt earlier).

If you want, we can end this now

[Drizzt]

If you want, we can end this now

I'm down, lol. What do you think of Martin's probability data?

[deathworlds]

If you want, we can end this now

[MartinGG99]

Yeah there’s a tiny edge possibility of bakemir being exactly godfather, but I am never going to bet the game on that. Not when we have a 2/3 chance to hit scum in the non-insane world where it’s 2 of Martin/DW/Drizzt.

Godfather doesn't matter, Detective ignores detection immunity. What would matter is if he was Beguiler, which would redirect targets to whoever he targeted on n1. But still edge chance that he is.

[deathworlds]

Yeah there’s a tiny edge possibility of bakemir being exactly godfather, but I am never going to bet the game on that. Not when we have a 2/3 chance to hit scum in the non-insane world where it’s 2 of Martin/DW/Drizzt.

I remember when I got juked by betting on the non-cursed timeline.

Gods third line butterfly is going to haunt me for years to come

[MartinGG99]

I don't have any objections to ending this now, so long as Ash is 100% okay with it.

[deathworlds]

*obligatory self preservation statement*

[MartinGG99]

I don't have any objections to ending this now, so long as Ash is 100% okay with it.

Because with Ash being okay and Bakermir being okay with it, I presume there is no further discussion to be had.

[deathworlds]

Actually I do have one bit to add.

I'd still like to see Martin get lynched more than anything else, the way he hammered auwt when we still had more than a few hours left to go in the day left a sour taste in my mouth, in addition to my prior scum read on him.

[MartinGG99]

Actually I do have one bit to add.

I'd still like to see Martin get lynched more than anything else, the way he hammered auwt when we still had more than a few hours left to go in the day left a sour taste in my mouth, in addition to my prior scum read on him.

We didn't have more than a few hours left. It was roughly around the time you said you were going to hammer him. I quoted that in my hammer vote.

[deathworlds]

Actually I do have one bit to add.

I'd still like to see Martin get lynched more than anything else, the way he hammered auwt when we still had more than a few hours left to go in the day left a sour taste in my mouth, in addition to my prior scum read on him.

We live in a timeline where it's POSSIBLE for bake to be scum, and drizz to be innocent. But there's no timeline where I see Martin being town

[deathworlds]

We didn't have more than a few hours left. It was roughly around the time you said you were going to hammer him. I quoted that in my hammer vote.

I was going to hammer unless someone unvoted, as I said before, I mostly just wanted to make sure my vote was somewhere it would count by EoD

[Ash Lael]

If you want, we can end this now

Who do you think is NOT the scum? I have no objections to the lynch pool voting now because the townie in it never votes townie. But you and me need to get it right.

[MartinGG99]

Who do you think is NOT the scum? I have no objections to the lynch pool voting now because the townie in it never votes townie. But you and me need to get it right.

Betting he thinks Drizzt given his last reads list. Out of the three, he's the most towny on that list.

[bakermir]

I remember when I got juked by betting on the non-cursed timeline.

Gods third line butterfly is going to haunt me for years to come

My first FM game. Yeah, I agree it would have been pretty good content if I turned out to be godfather after all of this.




Who would you vote anyway? Ash/Martin/Bakermir/Drizzt

[deathworlds]

My first FM game. Yeah, I agree it would have been pretty good content if I turned out to be godfather after all of this.




Who would you vote anyway? Ash/Martin/Bakermir/Drizzt

Martin's the safest bet from my PoV.
I have a hard time believing ash or you are scum based off of mechanics and claims.
Drizzt would be my 2nd choice in this scenario, strictly because he isn't mechanically disproven.
Martin's been scummy this whole game from my PoV.