S-FM 303: Summer 2020 (Newbie Game)

[MartinGG99]

I don’t understand what you’re saying here. What perspective are you talking from?

How about I put it this way:

For the sake of argument, lets assume Auwt and I are Scum.


D2: We lynch Auwt. He flips scum.

N2: I kill a townie

D3: With 5 players left, and 1 mafia left, this means its 4v1.

Since mafia need this to win (according to setup): "Mafia: Have 1 Mafia alive and eliminate all Town & Neutral Evil."

This means we can afford to mislynch 1 more time, then we get to Lylo, where if there is a 2nd mislynch, the remaining mafia (me) kills the last townie (I had to correct my statement a bit here).

So, ideally, if you're worried about me, we can afford the mislynch on me:

D3: Martin is lynched. He flips mafia.

This means we win.

However, if i'm town, then:

N3: Mafia kills a townie

D4: We're down to 3 players. Two of them are town. One of them mafia. It's Lylo.

However, if we don't lynch a mafia member today (D2), then:

N2: One of two mafias kill.

N3: 5 players are left. Two of them are mafia, 3 of them are town. In for town to win, they would have to win a Lylo situation twice in a row.

[MartinGG99]

So, because of this situation above, if you truly believe that I am scum team with Auwt, then I suggest you lynch Auwt first.

Alternatively, we could lynch me first. But since I know I am town (and in a past post I admitted I am citizen for the sake of arguing reasonable concern about Auwt's citizen guesses), I can't really say lynch me today because then the next day we'll be at Lylo. And next suspect I imagine would indeed by Auwt, and if he's somehow town after all that indirect power hunting....it's game over for us.

[MartinGG99]

And next suspect I imagine would indeed by Auwt, and if he's somehow town after all that indirect power hunting....it's game over for us.

Alternatively Awut is lynched and flips scum, but then we would need a fair bit of debate as to who his scum teammate was, since in that scenario I am already dead.

[Ash Lael]

How about I put it this way:

For the sake of argument, lets assume Auwt and I are Scum.

D2: We lynch Auwt. He flips scum.

N2: I kill a townie

D3: With 5 players left, and 1 mafia left, this means its 4v1.

Since mafia need this to win (according to setup): "Mafia: Have 1 Mafia alive and eliminate all Town & Neutral Evil."

This means we can afford to mislynch 1 more time, then we get to Lylo, where if there is a 2nd mislynch, the remaining mafia (me) kills the last townie (I had to correct my statement a bit here).

So, ideally, if you're worried about me, we can afford the mislynch on me:

D3: Martin is lynched. He flips mafia.

This means we win.

However, if i'm town, then:

N3: Mafia kills a townie

D4: We're down to 3 players. Two of them are town. One of them mafia. It's Lylo.

However, if we don't lynch a mafia member today (D2), then:

N2: One of two mafias kill.

N3: 5 players are left. Two of them are mafia, 3 of them are town. In for town to win, they would have to win a Lylo situation twice in a row.

Ok I see what you’re saying now. Process of elimination stuff.

I gotta say I’m really thrown by your professed (relative) willingness to be lynched yourself. If you are scum you’re playing a really ballsy game.

Like this could all be a push to get Auwt mislynched, and then you sacrifice yourself in lylo and your still-hidden partner goes on to win in f3... but as I said, ballsy.

I really struggle with you Martin. I swing from being certain you’re scum to being in all kinds of doubt and conflict over it and then I swing back again. It’s killing me.

[Ash Lael]

So are you, as a townie, saying you are willing to be mislynched as long as Auwt goes down too? Your confidence in your scum read of him is that strong?

[MartinGG99]

So are you, as a townie, saying you are willing to be mislynched as long as Auwt goes down too? Your confidence in your scum read of him is that strong?

Its only that strong because i don't know who else it could be. I feel if its grak, then he must be teamed with Auwt.

It can't be you (well technically it can as a possibility, but my sense of probability says its impossible)

I feel it can't be Bakermir given the Zedus debacle, and that Auwt is trying to push him. I just don't see any good partners for him (unless helltanis).

Helltanis is the wildcard here. He could be a bad afk townie or not. But his initial posts seemed authentic to me in terms of being absolutely new to Mafia. Also he was voted for by Grak once (who is among my suspicions)

Dallarian could be scum, but if he were it's likely he would be teamed with Helltanis I feel. Plus it just seems like Auwt and Dallarian just cannot be of the same alignment at times, though this is sort of a gut feeling.

In terms of evidence for scum, I only see it being strong enough for Grak and Auwt. Townies, like me, can and/or have made mistakes. I feel the others, for their suspicious activities, either were just mistakes or simply disagreements on playstyle.

So yes, i'd be willing to be mislynched the next day if Auwt is flipped scum. And with me out of the picture on Lylo, I hope you can lead the rest of the town to the lynching of Auwt's most likely scum teamate. (Which, for me, is Grak).

[SuperJack]

As from last night. @Helltanis has been replaced by @Drizzt

[Ash Lael]

I’m trying to think of a reason, in a scum Grak/town bakemir world, why they would claim a green check on bakemir specifically.

One possible answer is to discredit the person who has been pushing that slot the hardest, which is obviously Auwt. So with Martin’s planned, concerted push on Auwt, there’s an argument for a Grak/Martin team. I don’t know how plausible that world is, considering how day one went, but still.

However there’s another player that came in with an intent to cast doubt on Auwt and that’s Dallarian. He then dipped and allowed the loud voices of myself and Martin to take over but... maybe we’re all three just townies being manipulated into fighting each other and the real team is Grak/Dallarian.

That feels a bit reachy, but Dallarian has been flying under the radar a lot after what seemed like a strong start and his reads have been pretty inconsistent...

And then there’s Helltanis who still hasn’t even posted today. Gah.

There’s too many possibilities to consider and my brain is frying. I need some way to rule out some worlds.

[MartinGG99]

I really struggle with you Martin. I swing from being certain you’re scum to being in all kinds of doubt and conflict over it and then I swing back again. It’s killing me.

If anything, unless you got a really good town (as a team), I feel and think the process of actually catching scum is always going to be a roller coaster in FM. This is a game of behavioral analysis. WIFOM can occur anywhere, and it often penetrates us most when we're on the cusp of winning or losing. Thankfully though, we have quite a bit of time before we have to come to terms with our choice today.

There is also the option of lynching no one today, in which case mafia kill one person.
It'll be 6 players, 2 mafia and 4 town. It'll be MyLo, and you can skip that too, where mafia will kill again, but the next day will be Lylo.

[MartinGG99]

As from last night. @Helltanis has been replaced by @Drizzt

Thank you for the info. I hope @Drizzt will be able to catch up to speed by mid D2. That way we can have discussions with him.

[Drizzt]

Hey all, So where we at? Martin is susp as fuck imo.

[MartinGG99]

I’m trying to think of a reason, in a scum Grak/town bakemir world, why they would claim a green check on bakemir specifically.

One possible answer is to discredit the person who has been pushing that slot the hardest, which is obviously Auwt. So with Martin’s planned, concerted push on Auwt, there’s an argument for a Grak/Martin team. I don’t know how plausible that world is, considering how day one went, but still.

However there’s another player that came in with an intent to cast doubt on Auwt and that’s Dallarian. He then dipped and allowed the loud voices of myself and Martin to take over but... maybe we’re all three just townies being manipulated into fighting each other and the real team is Grak/Dallarian.

That feels a bit reachy, but Dallarian has been flying under the radar a lot after what seemed like a strong start and his reads have been pretty inconsistent...

And then there’s Helltanis who still hasn’t even posted today. Gah.

There’s too many possibilities to consider and my brain is frying. I need some way to rule out some worlds.

Well there's an option to lynch Grakylan, and if he's scum then that'll disprove the Martin/Auwt combo. Originally I had planned/wished for this, and I think I suggest it in my #623 post. But now looking at how Auwt/Grak reacted, and your ideas on the situation, it seemed better to lynch Auwt. Also don't miss the post that SJ just did about Helltanis being replaced by Drizzt.

But in the event of a Grak/Dallarian combo, we can lynch grak, mislynch Auwt, then at Lylo just lynch Dallarian. Or the other way around, and lynch Grak, then Dallarian, then Auwt.

[Ash Lael]

If anything, unless you got a really good town (as a team), I feel and think the process of actually catching scum is always going to be a roller coaster in FM. This is a game of behavioral analysis. WIFOM can occur anywhere, and it often penetrates us most when we're on the cusp of winning or losing. Thankfully though, we have quite a bit of time before we have to come to terms with our choice today.

There is also the option of lynching no one today, in which case mafia kill one person.
It'll be 6 players, 2 mafia and 4 town. It'll be MyLo, and you can skip that too, where mafia will kill again, but the next day will be Lylo.

That just feels horrible. We lose two clearish townies and are guaranteed to keep both the scum and the most tempting mislynches alive.

...wait a second. Why have you kept talking about me guiding town to victory in lylo? If you think I’m such an asset to town, and we no longer have a doctor, why wouldn’t you expect me to be night killed?

[MartinGG99]

Hey all, So where we at? Martin is susp as fuck imo.

You might want to read the whole thread, and maybe skip the Zedus stuff that happens roughly in the range of mid #200-late #400 (since its mostly toxic)

Replacing Helltanis and then accusing me as sus, while suggesting you haven't read the thread, isn't a good look imo. I'm sus for reasons that you could've gotten from the thread.

[Ash Lael]

Hey all, So where we at? Martin is susp as fuck imo.

Hey man. How caught up are you and what are your reads on everyone else?

[MartinGG99]

That just feels horrible. We lose two clearish townies and are guaranteed to keep both the scum and the most tempting mislynches alive.

...wait a second. Why have you kept talking about me guiding town to victory in lylo? If you think I’m such an asset to town, and we no longer have a doctor, why wouldn’t you expect me to be night killed?

Wait, you're right about that. I idd'nt think about you being killed. I was stuck in math calculation mode from counting the number of townies to mafia, and how many mislynches till Mylo or Lylo, and etc. Sorry about that.

[MartinGG99]

Wait, you're right about that. I idd'nt think about you being killed. I was stuck in math calculation mode from counting the number of townies to mafia, and how many mislynches till Mylo or Lylo, and etc. Sorry about that.

This is why discussion is important, it helps account for stuff I may miss. Hence my proposal of a tinfoil theory that I was initially unsure about.

[Drizzt]

You might want to read the whole thread, and maybe skip the Zedus stuff that happens roughly in the range of mid #200-late #400 (since its mostly toxic)

Replacing Helltanis and then accusing me as sus, while suggesting you haven't read the thread, isn't a good look imo. I'm sus for reasons that you could've gotten from the thread.

Just seeing who reacts to the accusation. I believe you are town. Only read three pages back.

[MartinGG99]

Just seeing who reacts to the accusation. I believe you are town. Only read three pages back.

Nice play then, I honestly though you might've been actually foolish lol. That's a relief.

[Grakylan]

So with Martin’s planned, concerted push on Auwt, there’s an argument for a Grak/Martin team.

I'm paired with Martin when I'm defending Auwt from Martin? Makes me think.

[Drizzt]

Ash came to your defense pretty quick, w/e that means.

[Ash Lael]

I'm paired with Martin when I'm defending Auwt from Martin? Makes me think.

Lol, you think I’m dumb enough to think scum never play both sides of an argument? That’s what they usually do.

[Ash Lael]

Ash came to your defense pretty quick, w/e that means.

LOL. I did not. I wanted to know your thoughts in more depth.

Martin is absolutely suspicious in my book.

[Grakylan]

However there’s another player that came in with an intent to cast doubt on Auwt and that’s Dallarian. He then dipped and allowed the loud voices of myself and Martin to take over but... maybe we’re all three just townies being manipulated into fighting each other and the real team is Grak/Dallarian.

Dallarian was talking a lot Day 1 and he suddenly became a lot less active. Not sure if busy or if something is up.

But you know my opinion on Dallarian already. Read post 706.

[Grakylan]

Ash came to your defense pretty quick, w/e that means.

Well, what do you think it means? Please list off the possibilities.

[Ash Lael]

Dallarian was talking a lot Day 1 and he suddenly became a lot less active. Not sure if busy or if something is up.

But you know my opinion on Dallarian already. Read post 706.

I never know your opinion on anyone from one post to the next.

[MartinGG99]

Martin is absolutely suspicious in my book.

Call it a long history in this game, Drizzt, because I garuntee you half or more of my posts have been direct to Ash.

I've been agonizing him with my townie mistakes, some of them rightfully suspicious

[Drizzt]

Well, what do you think it means? Please list off the possibilities.

Well, the way Martin talks "I know I'm town" that is typical saying I use when I'm town. I rarely use it as a defense when I'm a baddie. His quick reply could mean he wants to be seen challenging me on accusing martin, or he could have genuinely been susp of Martin and wanted to see if my reasoning matched his.

[MartinGG99]

Dallarian was talking a lot Day 1 and he suddenly became a lot less active. Not sure if busy or if something is up.

He mentioned being busy towards mid/late d1, before we got near EoD. I don't know if it still stands. But for the past few hours it's been nighttime in the EU, so he probably wont be active for a bit. All he could spend on SoD2 was about 2 hours, normally he gets off (for my time) around 6PM. D2 started at 5PM today. So he really couldn't stay around for long.

[bakermir]

I believe our mathematician miscalculated the town odds on #759


IF we lynch a townie today, we will be 2 maf versus 3 town and someone will die. We will be 2 vs 2 tomorrow and the game ends.

If we don't lynch anyone today we will be 2 maf versus 3 town on Day Three.

These 2 are the most possible outcomes. Unless town power does some clutches tonight or tomorrow night.


Just as I clear you in my head, simply because your correct observation on majority of people here... This post makes me doubt it all. Or did I understand your game plan wrong?

[bakermir]

@MartinGG99 ^

[Grakylan]

He mentioned being busy towards mid/late d1, before we got near EoD. I don't know if it still stands. But for the past few hours it's been nighttime in the EU, so he probably wont be active for a bit. All he could spend on SoD2 was about 2 hours, normally he gets off (for my time) around 6PM. D2 started at 5PM today. So he really couldn't stay around for long.

Understandable. So a false alarm.

Theres still other reasons to be suspicious of Dallarian however.

[bakermir]

Hey all, So where we at? Martin is susp as fuck imo.

Welcome @Drizzt ,

Can you please elaborate? You have replaced a low input slot and I don't see any difference. You will continue to be seen scummy if you don't correct that.

[MartinGG99]

I believe our mathematician miscalculated the town odds on #759


IF we lynch a townie today, we will be 2 maf versus 3 town and someone will die. We will be 2 vs 2 tomorrow and the game ends.

If we don't lynch anyone today we will be 2 maf versus 3 town on Day Three.

These 2 are the most possible outcomes. Unless town power does some clutches tonight or tomorrow night.


Just as I clear you in my head, simply because your correct observation on majority of people here... This post makes me doubt it all. Or did I understand your game plan wrong?

But this game started with 9 people. Only two have died, Renegade and Zedus. So that means we have 7 players. If we don't lynch, then that's 1 townie killed by mafia over night, leaving 6 people. 2 mafia, 4 town. If, on that day after the no-lynch, we mislynch, we will lose because that'll be 2 more townies dead by the next day, leaving it at 2v2.

[MartinGG99]

But this game started with 9 people. Only two have died, Renegade and Zedus. So that means we have 7 players. If we don't lynch, then that's 1 townie killed by mafia over night, leaving 6 people. 2 mafia, 4 town. If, on that day after the no-lynch, we mislynch, we will lose because that'll be 2 more townies dead by the next day, leaving it at 2v2.

I fail to see where the miscalculation is. I think i've mentioned every possiblity and calculated them correctly on #759 and #751. Maybe you misread somehwere or misunderstood me? That's fine if you did, we all make mistakes.

[bakermir]

But this game started with 9 people. Only two have died, Renegade and Zedus. So that means we have 7 players. If we don't lynch, then that's 1 townie killed by mafia over night, leaving 6 people. 2 mafia, 4 town. If, on that day after the no-lynch, we mislynch, we will lose because that'll be 2 more townies dead by the next day, leaving it at 2v2.

sorry I got confused. You are right.

IF we lynch a townie today = we will enter n2 with 2 maf 4 townies. 1 of the townies will die at night and we will start Day Two with 3 townies.

we can be confident in lynching today

[bakermir]

Still need more input from @Drizzt and @Dallarian

[Grakylan]

Welcome @Drizzt ,
Can you please elaborate? You have replaced a low input slot and I don't see any difference. You will continue to be seen scummy if you don't correct that.

Hell, he responded 4 minutes after I asked him a question and was already testing Martin. Hes prob trying to inherit helltenis' citizen role.

But we do need to keep eyes on Drizzt's synergy with other players NOW.

[Grakylan]

You know what, now is a really good time to ISO Helltenis. I will do it if no one else will.

[bakermir]

You know what, now is a really good time to ISO Helltenis. I will do it if no one else will.

That would be great if you do because I am currently on a DND sesh at the same time. I will drop some information here once I am done with that later on.

[bakermir]

I am still following the discussion.

[MartinGG99]

You know what, now is a really good time to ISO Helltenis. I will do it if no one else will.

I ISO'ed him at #540. Beyond when he stopped posting and probably was going to get replaced.

[MartinGG99]

I ISO'ed him at #540. Beyond when he stopped posting and probably was going to get replaced.

Although note that at that time I town-leaned him, right now as of my last reads list at #623, he's a null.

[Ash Lael]

Has anyone else noticed that Grak today is almost like a completely different person, by the way?

Day one he was, in his own words, a headless chicken. Today he’s come in with confident reads and a clear agenda.

It’s almost like he spent the night phase chatting with someone and formulating a strategy.

[MartinGG99]

Has anyone else noticed that Grak today is almost like a completely different person, by the way?

Day one he was, in his own words, a headless chicken. Today he’s come in with confident reads and a clear agenda.

It’s almost like he spent the night phase chatting with someone and formulating a strategy.

That, or he's trying to get Helltanis/Drizzt pinned because he knows he's been caught.

[MartinGG99]

In which case, its actually a both

[MartinGG99]

Has anyone else noticed that Grak today is almost like a completely different person, by the way?

Day one he was, in his own words, a headless chicken. Today he’s come in with confident reads and a clear agenda.

It’s almost like he spent the night phase chatting with someone and formulating a strategy.

Actually, i hate to be an advocate for the devil, but people have had mentors during this game. He has one, I believe. So its possible they may have chatted with the mentor, but they aren't suppose to act like puppets for mentors. Super Jack can see the mentor chats, so I'm assuming its not likely he talked that much in detail with his mentor.

[MartinGG99]

Actually, i hate to be an advocate for the devil, but people have had mentors during this game. He has one, I believe. So its possible they may have chatted with the mentor, but they aren't suppose to act like puppets for mentors. Super Jack can see the mentor chats, so I'm assuming its not likely he talked that much in detail with his mentor.

So i'd say its still likely he had a night chat, just not with the mentor. But i felt it important to be honest and clear about the facts.

[Grakylan]

Has anyone else noticed that Grak today is almost like a completely different person, by the way?

Day one he was, in his own words, a headless chicken. Today he’s come in with confident reads and a clear agenda.

It’s almost like he spent the night phase chatting with someone and formulating a strategy.

24 hours of uninterrupted time to read 30 pages does wonders.

[Grakylan]

anyhow, my ISO on helltenis

Do we all have 1 life from bad guys attck?

If hes a genuine noob he may have actually been citizen. Or he was mafia killer and was overwhelmed by the amount of citizens.

I am Helltanis I ve been summoned here to bring the hell fleet to the heavens and execute all those who oppose me and my fellow citizens so that justice may be served

Breadcrumbing as cit

Anyway if there are investigators let investigators invest and I pay attention to suspicious behaviour. There shall be justice

Ditto. Stating the obvious as if he doesnt want to be seen as totally quiet. Could be a lil sus.

Yo Dallarian you feeling suspicious now? Hehe

Post 106 (page 6). Not clear what hes referencing. This was after Dallarian voting Auwt and referencing a SC2 scene.

Ah I just wait for a mentor...

The edited post. This was originally a vote for Martin. Did his mentor pull the strings?

I d be survivor that way I can get clues if evildoers and possible townies were I could possibly side with

possibly a response to martin's power role question. No survivors in game.

Hi hi how you guys doing

If you could do anything what would you do?

These two posts came in quick succession. No one answered his question. Renegade asked for his opinion on Martin, and no reply.

He disappears for 2 hours.

Page 1-3

Not much has happened, Martin is asking question and showing people how to vote Ash Lael , questions Martin's methods. Clearly I think it good idea to ask question I have not been hear during page 1evaluation

Response to Martin's question asking him for his opinion on this game. Restating the obvious and not bringing anything new to the table.

So far I'm just getting my thoughts together to help us as town or the bad guys might get the advantage

This was his excuse.

Martin thanked him for responding quickly.

Page 4-5

Found some stuff that triggered , Graklyn is on my scum alert because he dosent mind lynching, Dallarain said my the town win and dint include himself makes me think his sus, Martin, Ash l'eau , Zedus seem town so far , I ll make another evaluation soon

I don't know what to make of auwt,bakmir and renegade at the moment

His reads, made on June 25, 11am on us west coast time. His scum read on me was fair and expected for the atittude at the time. He scum reads Dallarin for a pretty weak reason. This was before Zedus started being toxic.

[Vote]Graklyn

30 min after posting read he attempts to vote me. fails cuz not proper vote format, and name misspelling.

So why would @Zedus have reaction just from Martin asking the question instead he could of politely decline

It seems like theres something hiding through just my theory

Pretty vague and hedgey assumption.

He signs off and says goodbye at June 25, 1:30pm on us west coast time and returns 12 hours later.

snip. just click the arrow button on quote box to see his reads list

He lists reasons why each person can be town or scum. Doesn't give definite reads on any of them. Said he needed to recap on bakir.
Says I've been afk (true), and could be scum ducking very low. Thats a lot coming from him.
Says Martin is either the greatest ally of town or is a scum power hunting and getting town trust early.
Says Renegade is paying attention to the very quiet and is either town or a scum looking for easy lynch for doing that.
Says bakmir has "interesting info" (what interesting info?), but says he was "deceptive" in page 1-3 with "useless posts"
Says Auwt has "nice theorys" on quiet ones, making him a town read, but also "scum for giving info to lower tension"???
Says Ash is a "great town ally" with a very sharp mind but could be "good at deception" and getting trust, advises to get more info on ash before fully scum reading him
Says Dallarian is a "good town" for using votes to pressure people (that should make me good town according to this guy who said I "didnt mind lynching" too?) and is mostly fine.
Says Zedus was town due to wanting no-lynch (contentious claim) but is scum cuz of his reaction to Martin's question at him.

Overall hes another guy criticizing me and praising Dallarian for doing exactly the same thing (using votes to pressure for info)

He re-evaluates bakmir 15-20 min later

Re-evaluation
@Bikimar
Townbecause gave information early on the forum game and claims to read
Scumstill a bit quite on (im assuming pages) 10-20 with little or no information

15 minutes later solidifies his scum read on Bakmir and (correctly) town reads Renegade

Scum lean
@Bakmir still he reads and has little or no information as townie so his low value target for mafia or he is a scum

Town lean
@Renegade he gets information out of people a town sign

[COLOR="#00FF00"][/

Maybe his mentor told him to be less hedgey and hes just going for non-contentious opinions as a bare minimum?

Ash still calls him out on his excessive hedginess after the post. (around post 450)

I want everyone to answer this question

If you had 3 wishes what would you wish for
I d wish for fame and reputation from my fellow comrades
I d wish for corna to go away really impacts my future
I d wish for a successful career as an accountant

This was a distracting question right after Ash accused him of editing out his Martin vote.

Actual answer later:

I edited my post cause I did it unsuccessfully and thought I d be making a fool if my self however superjack I understand this my rise suspicion to me early on

Well you right to think I'm suspicious but I'm tryna aid us as town I ve alrdy gave some stuff that could make sense why we could be scum possible I could be scum for lying _forgetten/editing posts but I ll make it clear and try to redeem myself, I dont want to make town mislynch otherwise we would be giving mafia advantage

atleast hes understanding.

-vote Grakyln

He votes me cuz im on top of his scum list. Ash retorts by town reading me based off of this one vote. LMAO

Ok so what's your reasoning for grak being town?

A good question for (I'm assuming) Bakmir.

I dont think Dallarian 100% town I gave my reasoning a possibility why he might be town, I miss interpreted ash gender and I think Auwt only spoke for value information when Dallarain voted him but anyway just how I interpreted it, Graklyn seemed sus to me in a way that he was to quite

His last post. Once again doesnt even consider the possibility that I could have been busy in the same manner he was on Day 1 (which was true)

In conclusion, Helltenis may have been a genuinely confused citizen, or a genuinely confused scum, or a scum who played dumb at first to make people underestimate him. We shall see if Drizzt's behavior reflect these possibilities.