Quote Originally Posted by ReauxTzunami View Post
This isn't always true. Back when I used to play a lot, the meta in a public game solely was dependent on how you presented yourself between the starting day and the day after (as long as you weren't killed over that night). Trolls will be trolls and target players that stand out; the masses will follow them and quickly vote up the target. I, personally, would take control of the match at the start and act like one of the power roles in order to get the town to win, no matter my alignment.

I had a match where I rolled Arsonist and took my pace carefully. As the players continued to make crazy accusations and claims, the Mafia started picking them off one by one. I guess around the third day I spoke up and told everyone to get it together so we, being the town, could win. After learning the reports of who Investigator/Sheriff found, it made it easier to find out who was who. Over four of the nights, two of my douse targets were killed off by the Mafia, forcing me to light eventually as I would of been caught soon if I was still alive and everyone else died off. Turns out on the night before I decided to light, a second Arsonist ignited, who happened to be once of my douse targets. Besides the incredible amount of luck of two Arsonists in one match, it solidified my alibi that I was a town role. Easily allowing me to win the game without needing to do anything else but lynch.

Never doubt the power of what could be rolled. I've seen four random town roles become four citizens, I've also seen 3 SKs in one match, thanks to two random neutrals. Just make sure you're a step ahead and push the meta in your favor.
I tihnk you misunderstood what I was saying. I'm talking about being cautious of trends. Sometimes players have this flawed ratioanle if player A claims this he is lieing. The Meta game is unreliable. Stick to the numbers and you will win.
In non troll games I have a ~40% win rate.

The most important thing to do each game at the start is to check the in game rules by hovering over the role list.
See what combinations and abilities are out there and plan accordingly.