Board Meeting Three: The Investigation Continues...

[Gunther]

On the contrary, I think his reactions were highly pro-town.

Unless Graves is his Godfather. Then he's given one false read and one "right" one to compensate.

[Zilean]

Remember, there was still the possibility of an Escort
Also, there was also the possibility that there was no Consort....

Argh, I hate probabilities!

If you draw two cards from a deck and do not replace any, what is the chance of drawing a diamond, then an ace? Answer in a fraction.

[Gunther]

Just to expand on my theory, when he first gave his result on Graves (after neglecting a night one action in his claim) he said he came up cit/gf, then later he doubled back and said that the correct read was cit/gf/revo/jester. He just neglected the last two since he didn't think Graves was one of them (I know Anson is already dead before anyone says that).

[Jarvan IV]

Lee, I'm sick of your shit. You pressure Alistar and continue to lie about your own role.

[B]-vote Lee Sin[/B]

[Jarvan IV]

FUCK YOU ALL COCK SUCKERS I AM TIRED OF THIS SHIT LYNCH LEE ALREADY ALL HE DIES IS LIE HE SUCKS MY SHIT AND DRINKS MY PISS

[Nocturne]

Just to expand on my theory, when he first gave his result on Graves (after neglecting a night one action in his claim) he said he came up cit/gf, then later he doubled back and said that the correct read was cit/gf/revo/jester. He just neglected the last two since he didn't think Graves was one of them (I know Anson is already dead before anyone says that).

Actually I think he left them out on purpose.
Graves being jester is very illogical unless its some 'I'm going to win so late in the game it will be crazy!' play (which I doubt).

Besides graves confirmed he was citizen and my notes support his play.
Seeing as there are 11 citizens and 1 gf...
Well ultimately we will find gf from scum detecting and shooting some citizens to see who lives.

Its day 3 and 2/3 deaths have been insurmountably in the towns favour. Jailor is very UP in this set up and we shouldn't worry too much about them really. Lucy is hesitant to kill anyone for fear of wasting it on a cit.


Really the way I see it, if you are jailed then all it is is providing you an immunity for the night and someone to talk strategy with.

Lucy will do her best to try and seem town jailor (her playstyle will change I'm sure of it) but all we do is deny all jailors info. Yes there is probably a town jailor still in the mix but really what is he going to do? Give immunity to key targets and that's it really.

Unless our town jailor comes out and claims it then posts a code each day which he can then prove himself as town jailor to the jailed target he is worthless (Until late game that is!)

Late game he can get that key execution but again.. only one shot.

Lucy will be crippled (at the cost of getting one jailor with a bunch of info) and she is helping rather harming. Eventually the mafia will realize this and stop using her to jail and instead send her to do the killing (unless they have a mafioso alive).

TL;DR:
Don't worry about jailors. Ignore them and don't give any info.

[Nocturne]

Lee, I'm sick of your shit. You pressure Alistar and continue to lie about your own role.

[B]-vote Lee Sin[/B]

Jarvan now that you are online do you want to explain to everyone what Lee Sins black dot from day 2 means?

Your attitude towards him changed noticeably.

[Lee Sin]

Jarvan now that you are online do you want to explain to everyone what Lee Sins black dot from day 2 means?

Your attitude towards him changed noticeably.

Oh that's the one thing I missed in my answers. That black dot is the equivalent of a COM name claim for me. If you played FM10 you would realize this.

[Riven]

-vote Alistar

i'll revoke it whenever someone else claims bussed, or a bus driver comes out to point out the second swap target who's keeping quiet.

[Soraka]

If Lee Sin was jailed by Lucy, then he is not Mafia. However, if his jailor was town, then it's possible that Lee can be an Assassin.

Is there any way to figure out if Lee's jailor was Lucy or not? Was Fizz really jailed by the same person who jailed Lee? I'm not inclined to believe Alistar's claim yet, but right now Lee Sin is more suspicious to me, he might as well be the neutral role.

[Riven]

Everytime someone sais Lucy I think of Ambient the lucifer

[Caitlyn]

If you draw two cards from a deck and do not replace any, what is the chance of drawing a diamond, then an ace? Answer in a fraction.

That would depend on what/which deck you are using.
That would also depend on whether the arrangement of cards in the deck is random/non-random.

For your question, I will assume you mean the traditional deck/random.
1/4 chance of drawing a diamond, 1/13 of drawing an ace., 1/52 chance of drawing a diamond ace..

1/52 chance. I reaalllly don't want to go to the more intricate details of "what happens if you draw a diamond ace first etc."

[Zilean]

That would depend on what/which deck you are using.
That would also depend on whether the arrangement of cards in the deck is random/non-random.

For your question, I will assume you mean the traditional deck/random.
1/4 chance of drawing a diamond, 1/13 of drawing an ace., 1/52 chance of drawing a diamond ace..

1/52 chance. I reaalllly don't want to go to the more intricate details of "what happens if you draw a diamond ace first etc."

In a standard 52 card deck, no jokers, if it's random arrangement, the chance is 1/52. Even when you account for the drawing of a diamond ace. BTW, it should have been 1/4 diamond, 4/51 drawing of an ace. No replacement and all.

[Nocturne]

That would depend on what/which deck you are using.
That would also depend on whether the arrangement of cards in the deck is random/non-random.

For your question, I will assume you mean the traditional deck/random.
1/4 chance of drawing a diamond, 1/13 of drawing an ace., 1/52 chance of drawing a diamond ace..

1/52 chance. I reaalllly don't want to go to the more intricate details of "what happens if you draw a diamond ace first etc."

Standard deck

There are 2 possible outcomes I want to look at.

A) Drawing the ace of diamonds on the first pick
B) Drawing a non-ace diamond on the first pick

A) Higher percentage of fulfilling both requirements
12/52 chance that you draw a diamond
4/51 chance that you then draw an ace.

1.8099% chance or 4/221 in lowest fraction form.


B) Less percentage of fulfilling both requirements
1/52 chance you draw that ace of diamonds
3/51 chance you draw one of the remaining aces.

0.11312217% chance or 1/884 in lowest fraction form.

The average % would be (12 * A) + B / 13

So the average chance of picking any diamond, followed by an ace is
1.6794% or 193/11492 in lowest fraction form

[Nocturne]

Pwned Zilean. Pwned.

[Nocturne]

Oops I named A and B wrong but You get the idea.

[Zilean]

Standard deck

There are 2 possible outcomes I want to look at.

A) Drawing the ace of diamonds on the first pick
B) Drawing a non-ace diamond on the first pick

A) Higher percentage of fulfilling both requirements
12/52 chance that you draw a diamond
4/51 chance that you then draw an ace.

1.8099% chance or 4/221 in lowest fraction form.


B) Less percentage of fulfilling both requirements
1/52 chance you draw that ace of diamonds
3/51 chance you draw one of the remaining aces.

0.11312217% chance or 1/884 in lowest fraction form.

The average % would be (12 * A) + B / 13

So the average chance of picking any diamond, followed by an ace is
1.6794% or 193/11492 in lowest fraction form

If both situations are valid solutions for the probability, you should be adding them, not finding the average.

[Riven]

why are we doing middle school maths in here

[Zilean]

why are we doing middle school maths in here

so we can all play poker and win the vegas

[Nocturne]

Now while that was all fun and silly (I love math)...

Spoiler : Picture :

Caitlyn still hasn't answered my questions so I'll assume she didn't read them or forgot about them.

Caitlyn:
What is your reaction to my comments about you from
Do you deny that you haven't been contributing much?
Why did you feel the need to vote 2 different people in one post?

and here are my comments because I really want your answers. No excuses!

Next:
Caitlyn is scummy. I mentioned this while drunk but didn't explain why. She has been very vote happy but posts useless shit and has contributed nothing apart from votes. She even voted for 2 people in one post (only person to do this so far). She tries to look like she is taking part in day chat but she isn't.

[Nocturne]

Y MY SPOILER NO WORK. GAWD DAMN IT

[Soraka]

Oops I named A and B wrong but You get the idea.

Who is Oops? Are you talking to guy whose COM name is oops_ur_dead?

[Nocturne]

No. Oops as in "Oops, I made a mistake"

Now please focus on caitlyn, gangplank and maybe even drill soraka for some answers as to why she failed day 2 about everything (reading things wrong, misinterpreting everything, etc.).
She failed more than a one legged man in an arse kicking contest.

[Riven]

inb4, soraka is falsetruth.

[Soraka]

I'm currently at work, so I don't have the time to read the whole Day 3 thread. I'll return home in a few hours to catch up.

[Shaco]

Might as well appeal to the mass will now that I have a reason to. I am the animus programmer aka investigator. I checked Lee Sin last night because his ruthless attempt to bandwagon me lead to me being suspicious of him. He came back as Lookout/Detective or Framer/Disguiser/Ghost. He is very dangerous. I think we should inact a lynch all liars policy and get him!

When Alistar labelled me as a Citizen yesterday I suspected something. Even though Lee Sin was bussed last night Alistar was not afraid to call his bluff which leads me to believe he did indeed possess those investigative results.

So i'm fairly confident that Alistar is either the Investigator or part of the Mafia.. there was plenty of time for the real Consigliere to plant a code in day chat giving their results to Alistar so he doesn't even need to be the Consigliere himself. *EDIT* I had forgotten that Morgana the Consig had already died and I doubt there is another consig all hail Alistar!

either way it's a bit of bad news for me since the Mafia know one way or another that I'm a Citizen. On the up side though we have an extra roleclaim and if Lee Sin is to be trusted we can find out who the real invest result belonged to at some later point in the game.

I'm still not sure who last night's kill belonged to but it does point to an assassin. while i dont think its likely that the jailor did jail the SK I'm still not convinced. It is convenient that the SK just happened to try and kill one of the players who had the most votes - i do not necessarily trust fiddlesticks' claim of being attacked and eagerly await more information from that front. If anything I say he is the one we should pressure but for now we at least have that crumb of information and i don't want to blindly go after one person.

By the way at the beginning of day 2 i did post my reasons why i think that the only confirmed neutral killer at the moment is the Serial Killer - Morgana was killed by the neutral killer. There is a 95% chance the Consigi would have visited someone at night either to kill or to investigate. Morgana was found dead in her own animus indicating that the kill happened before or after her visit. The Spree Killer does not kill his victim if they are away at night and Morgana would have been killed elsewhere if there was a spree killer/veteran/bodyguard. It's not concrete but i think that's a 85% chance that we have a Serial Killer out there.

Shaco knows that Graves is not a citizen. Shaco asks, is it scummier for one to lie about another's role, or to accept the lies of another as truth?

[Irelia]

Shaco knows that Graves is not a citizen. Shaco asks, is it scummier for one to lie about another's role, or to accept the lies of another as truth?

Oh really Shaco? What do you know?

[Shaco]

Oh really Shaco? What do you know?

Shaco knows Graves is not citizen. Shaco does not know if that makes him scum, Alistar scum, or both scum.

[Graves]

I am immediately curious as well. I have not been bussed nor have I revealed any information to any jailers. I have not been witched to visit anyone. In fact for someone who has hosted kickass animus parties for his friends I have been relatively lonely at night.

[Irelia]

...Watch all of my buddies in the foursome be evil.

Also I would like to say that whoever else claims jailed please post your night chats so I can analyze them and compare them to mine.

[Alistar]

-unvote lee sin
-vote udyr

TALK OR DIE!

[Riven]

Shaco knows Graves is not citizen. Shaco does not know if that makes him scum, Alistar scum, or both scum.

Since you already claim a power role, might aswell tell us the whole story

[Zilean]

-unvote lee sin
-vote udyr

TALK OR DIE!

Way to be hours late.

Does anyone else think this is the strangest time to try and push attention towards Udyr like this?

[Zilean]

Going to bed now. Before I go, I just want to say that it's more than a little strange to me that Alistar decides to swap his vote (into an entirely different issue, Udyr being silent) just as people are getting suspicious of Graves.

[Graves]

Vote tally:

Alistar (4) –Lux, Leona, Lee Sin, Riven
Lee Sin (2) –Irelia, Jarvan IV
Udyr (5) – Nocturne, Udyr, Katarina, Zilean, Alistar
Zilean (1) – Nautilus
Gangplank (1) - Fizz

The current tally.

Right now the person i trust most implicitly is Nocturne - especially post #188 where his notes and suspicions are similar to mine.

I do not find it suspicious at all that Alistar is pushing attention to Udyr. I'd like some pressure on Udyr myself. In my eyes Alistar has played fairly pro-town and has proved himself more than pretty much everyone here.

You are in fact the suspicious one here Zilean. You've been pushing blame around a lot and shrugging off any accusations made against you without really addressing it. You claimed role-blocked way too early.

[Alistar]

Going to bed now. Before I go, I just want to say that it's more than a little strange to me that Alistar decides to swap his vote (into an entirely different issue, Udyr being silent) just as people are getting suspicious of Graves.

When were people being suspicious of graves? Shaco is most likely full of shit but if he is a lookout or detective and saw him perform a night action than he should say so and then we can lynch Graves for being the godfather. Until then Graves has done nothing suspicious.

[Nautilus]

Nautilius is not catching the fact that jailor was killed by SK and my by Assassins. Check the death description again.

Assassin kill = hidden blade through the neck.
SK / Spree kill = Found gutted.
Leblanc Kill = throat slit.

Throat slit matches with the assassin kill because both are in the neck and are clinical as opposed to savage.

When Alistar labelled me as a Citizen yesterday I suspected something. Even though Lee Sin was bussed last night Alistar was not afraid to call his bluff which leads me to believe he did indeed possess those investigative results.

So i'm fairly confident that Alistar is either the Investigator or part of the Mafia.. there was plenty of time for the real Consigliere to plant a code in day chat giving their results to Alistar so he doesn't even need to be the Consigliere himself. *EDIT* I had forgotten that Morgana the Consig had already died and I doubt there is another consig all hail Alistar! (Fake edit)

either way it's a bit of bad news for me since the Mafia know one way or another that I'm a Citizen. On the up side though we have an extra roleclaim and if Lee Sin is to be trusted we can find out who the real invest result belonged to at some later point in the game.

I'm still not sure who last night's kill belonged to but it does point to an assassin. while i dont think its likely that the jailor did jail the SK I'm still not convinced. It is convenient that the SK just happened to try and kill one of the players who had the most votes - i do not necessarily trust fiddlesticks' claim of being attacked and eagerly await more information from that front. If anything I say he is the one we should pressure but for now we at least have that crumb of information and i don't want to blindly go after one person.

By the way at the beginning of day 2 i did post my reasons why i think that the only confirmed neutral killer at the moment is the Serial Killer - Morgana was killed by the neutral killer. There is a 95% chance the Consigi would have visited someone at night either to kill or to investigate. Morgana was found dead in her own animus indicating that the kill happened before or after her visit. The Spree Killer does not kill his victim if they are away at night and Morgana would have been killed elsewhere if there was a spree killer/veteran/bodyguard. It's not concrete but i think that's a 85% chance that we have a Serial Killer out there.

I find the parts in red very scummy and I think you could be the godfather. I recommend shooting Graves to see if he dies and now Shaco is saying he's not a cit.

Oh hello.

So only one person continues to claim to have been blocked yet you suggest there is a consort. Therefore one should assume that you believe the person doing the blocking is Gangplank, yet you have never cast any suspicion toward him. Why is this?

Shaco and Orianna claimed to be blocked on night 1. The second block hasn't been announced today though.

[Graves]

And I don't know why you find Alistar suspicious for that. You want pressure on Udyr. I am not currently under any large suspicion - why are you so eager to bring the conversation back to Alistar and myself when a role claim has already been forced on both of us? If anything you should be more interested in Shaco's *evidence* on me than Alistar, for all you know I could be the Godfather and Alistar is the real Investigator who found me.

Based on my play and simple maths Alistar thinks I'm a Citizen so why shouldn't he share your curiosity about Udyr? You are about to go to bed so you are clearly on a very different time scale to most players here.I think you may actually be Fragos based on that time difference alone.

[Shaco]

Since you already claim a power role, might aswell tell us the whole story

When were people being suspicious of graves? Shaco is most likely full of shit but if he is a lookout or detective and saw him perform a night action than he should say so and then we can lynch Graves for being the godfather. Until then Graves has done nothing suspicious.

Shaco knows Graves is not a citizen. Shaco will not say any more than that. Shaco refuses to aid scum in differentiating between town roles.

-Vote Graves

[Pantheon]

-vote Udyr
i wouldn't mind lynching Udyr. Therules state that the only reason he hadnt been modkilled is by being active in night chat,
He's either a jailor or an assassin. And he's not jailor

[Graves]

Assassin kill = hidden blade through the neck.
SK / Spree kill = Found gutted.
Leblanc Kill = throat slit.

Throat slit matches with the assassin kill because both are in the neck and are clinical as opposed to savage.

You highlighted the bit in red where you came up with the same analysis as me..

As for the rest - the edit was put in because I reached the end of my post where I noticed I was talking about the Morgana death who was a Consig. Why am I suspicious if the mafia know if I'm a Citizen or not? They know if Alistar is mafia and reliable or not.

And are you seriously saying that I'm scummy because I said the Consigliere would have done something at night?

(my previous post was directed at Zilean btw)

[Soraka]

-vote Udyr
i wouldn't mind lynching Udyr. Therules state that the only reason he hadnt been modkilled is by being active in night chat,
He's either a jailor or an assassin. And he's not jailor

On what basis you are saying that he is jailor or assassin? And immediately after that you state that he is not jailor. Explain youself.

[Nautilus]

-vote Graves

Udyr posted on day 2 so judging by the rules he should not have been modkilled. This does not mean he has a night chat. Lurkers make a very easy target for scum to push votes on but I haven't seen Udyr say anything especially scummy.

You highlighted the bit in red where you came up with the same analysis as me..

As for the rest - the edit was put in because I reached the end of my post where I noticed I was talking about the Morgana death who was a Consig. Why am I suspicious if the mafia know if I'm a Citizen or not? They know if Alistar is mafia and reliable or not.

And are you seriously saying that I'm scummy because I said the Consigliere would have done something at night?

(my previous post was directed at Zilean btw)

I came up with the same analysis but you didn't give a reason and it was the way you said that seemed scummy. As with most of the things I highlighted it is the way you said them. You also said that the consig might have been sent out to kill which I find very odd when the consig is very useful to mafia and I doubt would be sent out to kill over a disguiser, drug dealer, janitor, framer or mafioso but maybe you know something I don't.

How do you respond to Shaco saying you are not a citizen?

[Pantheon]

On what basis you are saying that he is jailor or assassin? And immediately after that you state that he is not jailor. Explain youself.

rules say that if you dont input will get you modkilled unless you are extremely active in your nightchat.

Udyr hasnt been active but hasnt been modkilled either ------> he has a night chat which he is active in

and i get feeling hes not our jailor

[Graves]

[B][COLOR="#FF0000"]You also said that the consig might have been sent out to kill which I find very odd when the consig is very useful to mafia and I doubt would be sent out to kill over a disguiser, drug dealer, janitor, framer or mafioso but maybe you know something I don't.

How do you respond to Shaco saying you are not a citizen?

Was just trying to cover all the bases. I have been punished in past games for not stating every little possible variation.

And I don't really want to respond to Shaco. i want to see how far he takes things. I believe your suspicions are currently misplaced. you take all of your scumtells on me from one postand they are very very subjective and i would say you are twisting the words of a player in order to make them appear suspicious when you could quite easily pressure the two people who claim to have solid information on me to speak more.

[Graves]

i just looked back over the handbook for the millionth time but this time at the glossary section (which i hadn't paid much attention to). It specifically states that the time *desynchronization* is attributed to Mafia or Vigilante kill. When i first read through the rules i skimmed over this section because i thought I picked up the general gist but i was unaware that the term seems to be so.. specific. No mention is made of any SK/Arso/SprK terms. i don't know if this is significant or not - the precision of the death does seem in keeping with the assassins. It is difficult to be sure because we have so little to compare it to.

[Nautilus]

Was just trying to cover all the bases. I have been punished in past games for not stating every little possible variation.

And I don't really want to respond to Shaco. i want to see how far he takes things. I believe your suspicions are currently misplaced. you take all of your scumtells on me from one postand they are very very subjective and i would say you are twisting the words of a player in order to make them appear suspicious when you could quite easily pressure the two people who claim to have solid information on me to speak more.

I'm not twisting your words, I'm highlighting them. I took my scum tells from that and any posts since which seem suspicious to me. Why would I pressure people that aren't as suspicious to me?

You're doing the same thing as Alistar by trying to waste day discussion by saying things like "I want to see how far he takes things" or "I'll claim when I have enough votes" because all that will accomplish is you claiming eventually after we've wasted a day and a lynch trying to pressure you into talking. If you are not a citizen then claim now and stop wasting our time.

[Riven]

Shaco knows Graves is not a citizen. Shaco will not say any more than that. Shaco refuses to aid scum in differentiating between town roles.

-Vote Graves

How are you hoping to sway our opinion by saying absolutely nothing? Why do you think he isn't a citizen?

[Soraka]

I guess it's time to give Udyr wake up call. And I remember that someone said that he was visible during one of the nights.

-vote Udyr

[Shaco]

Was just trying to cover all the bases. I have been punished in past games for not stating every little possible variation.

And I don't really want to respond to Shaco. i want to see how far he takes things. I believe your suspicions are currently misplaced. you take all of your scumtells on me from one postand they are very very subjective and i would say you are twisting the words of a player in order to make them appear suspicious when you could quite easily pressure the two people who claim to have solid information on me to speak more.

Shaco simply wants you to admit you are not a citizen. Shaco knows your true role.