Haven't quite decided on whether or not I want to risk a night one recruitment; just thought i'd throw down a topic to let you know I'm actively thinking about it.
If you do nothing: 13% to die.
If you recruit: 39% to die and 38% to recruit a Mason (not including the chance of the recruit also dying) (you can both die and recruit, btw).
These chances including mismasoning and being shot.