S-FM 355: Nonstandard Roles 3

[Dark Magician]

@Helz
You also don’t understand.
You are NOT night immune anymore, it wears off tonight.

[Dark Magician]

I was wondering if you were death immune forever that’s why I asked the host last night and he said no that when the bounty expires so does your death protection.

[MartinGG99]

Okay so I think I got this down into one post.

We can agree it’s never Luka/Martin right?
Due to the lack of kills.

So in such case if Oliver and Scumbot aren’t hits it’s just MM/Tau?

this makes sense actually, as otherwise it'd be very likely one of Martin/Luka/Helz/Huo would've died

therefore one of us must be town, or both, we just don't know that yet

Therefore, if there are no red flips in Oliver/Scumbot, the only realistically possible team is MM/Huo -- supposedly Mizery, the evil teacher, tried killing MM/Huo on n1 and since it didn't happen they're the same alignment.

If there is a red flip, that clears MM. This narrows things down to

Luka/red flip
Martin/red flip
DM/red flip

With that knowledge, we can figure out exactly which by doing the following:

Varcron goes MM and Martin
Tau goes MM and Luka

The evil teacher will detect if I am mafia -- we already know MM is town if there is a red flip from lynching Oli/Scumbot -- and if I am indeed mafia I get one too many stab wounds alongside MM.

The teacher check on MM + Luka will tell us if they're the same or not. If they're not, Luka is just outed since we know MM is town from the hypothetical red flip.

In the event that neither MM or I die, and Luka is revealed to be the same as MM, we can conclude that every one of us is town.

Which then reveals the final and only possibility:

DM/red flip

Actually you both need to protect Helz for this to work.
Helz’s survival is key here.

@Martin
@Luka

Protect Helz Tonight.

Since ghost is town-siding and controls evil teacher, only way to fuck with this plan is either not following the plan, Mizery lying to us (I doubt it), or the mafia NK. That is why by protecting Helz (as in, both me AND luka) we can ensure Helz lives through the next day to force a bride and instantly solve the game (or get extremely close to, I didn't math every possibility).

[Dark Magician]

I’m more confident simply lynching Scumbot hits mafia.

Really not about lynching a town to kill another player. We just kill that player instead and keep our townie.

Oliver can easily be a wolf though.
It is optimally the best play to remove all but the 2 Protectives and 2 Same Alignment Checks.

[Dark Magician]

@Helz

You THINK you are doing the right thing not checking me but your WRONG.
People are going to sus me late game.

It is UNAVOIDABLE.
You NEED to Green Check me so everyone knows I am Town 100%.

[Dark Magician]

If you don’t believe me, ping everyone alive and ask how confident they are that I am town.
You will understand not everyone is 100% sure I am town.

[Huo Huo and Mr Tail]

If you don’t believe me, ping everyone alive and ask how confident they are that I am town.
You will understand not everyone is 100% sure I am town.

you can count me in on that, like there's a very low posibility

and it will keep bugging me

[MartinGG99]

99.5% chance sure DM is town

0.5% chance of me doesn't give a frick to care

[Dark Magician]

There might also be a time where I end up voting and realize I forgot I can’t vote and people become sus and I don’t want that to happen.

[MartinGG99]

@Marshmallow Marshall

Whole bunch of posts at SoD4, so I've got the important bits down into one post I think. This post I made should help you wrap your head around it. Also Mizery is Evil Teacher for context.

Okay so I think I got this down into one post.



this makes sense actually, as otherwise it'd be very likely one of Martin/Luka/Helz/Huo would've died

therefore one of us must be town, or both, we just don't know that yet

Therefore, if there are no red flips in Oliver/Scumbot, the only realistically possible team is MM/Huo -- supposedly Mizery, the evil teacher, tried killing MM/Huo on n1 and since it didn't happen they're the same alignment.

If there is a red flip, that clears MM. This narrows things down to

Luka/red flip
Martin/red flip
DM/red flip

With that knowledge, we can figure out exactly which by doing the following:



The evil teacher will detect if I am mafia -- we already know MM is town if there is a red flip from lynching Oli/Scumbot -- and if I am indeed mafia I get one too many stab wounds alongside MM.

The teacher check on MM + Luka will tell us if they're the same or not. If they're not, Luka is just outed since we know MM is town from the hypothetical red flip.

In the event that neither MM or I die, and Luka is revealed to be the same as MM, we can conclude that every one of us is town.

Which then reveals the final and only possibility:

DM/red flip



Since ghost is town-siding and controls evil teacher, only way to fuck with this plan is either not following the plan, Mizery lying to us (I doubt it), or the mafia NK. That is why by protecting Helz (as in, both me AND luka) we can ensure Helz lives through the next day to force a bride and instantly solve the game (or get extremely close to, I didn't math every possibility).

[Dark Magician]

Plus I’m also trying to get this town win so I can say I won a game as Town without voting Once and link that person to this game here.

[MartinGG99]

I think I've won a game somewhere voting only one time.

I've completely forgotten which one it was and how'd I end up doing that despite living for a while lol.

[Dark Magician]

Also Mizery was that you that called me Evil Teacher last day phase?
Lol.

[Dark Magician]

Clearly Mizery wanted me as their partner.

Become their Evil Student.

[MartinGG99]

I think I've won a game somewhere voting only one time.

I've completely forgotten which one it was and how'd I end up doing that despite living for a while lol.

actually I can't find it

might've mixed it up with some other statistic

like maybe only one wrong vote

[MartinGG99]

Okay so I think I got this down into one post.

We can agree it’s never Luka/Martin right?
Due to the lack of kills.

So in such case if Oliver and Scumbot aren’t hits it’s just MM/Tau?

this makes sense actually, as otherwise it'd be very likely one of Martin/Luka/Helz/Huo would've died

therefore one of us must be town, or both, we just don't know that yet

Therefore, if there are no red flips in Oliver/Scumbot, the only realistically possible team is MM/Huo -- supposedly Mizery, the evil teacher, tried killing MM/Huo on n1 and since it didn't happen they're the same alignment.

If there is a red flip, that clears MM. This narrows things down to

Luka/red flip
Martin/red flip
DM/red flip

With that knowledge, we can figure out exactly which by doing the following:

Varcron goes MM and Martin
Tau goes MM and Luka

The evil teacher will detect if I am mafia -- we already know MM is town if there is a red flip from lynching Oli/Scumbot -- and if I am indeed mafia I get one too many stab wounds alongside MM.

The teacher check on MM + Luka will tell us if they're the same or not. If they're not, Luka is just outed since we know MM is town from the hypothetical red flip.

In the event that neither MM or I die, and Luka is revealed to be the same as MM, we can conclude that every one of us is town.

Which then reveals the final and only possibility:

DM/red flip

Actually you both need to protect Helz for this to work.
Helz’s survival is key here.

@Martin
@Luka

Protect Helz Tonight.

Since ghost is town-siding and controls evil teacher, only way to fuck with this plan is either not following the plan, Mizery lying to us (I doubt it), or the mafia NK. That is why by protecting Helz (as in, both me AND luka) we can ensure Helz lives through the next day to force a bride and instantly solve the game (or get extremely close to, I didn't math every possibility).

@oliverz144

we're planning to vote you off so you can vengeful kill scumbot

this works so we can clear both you guys in one day, which leads to auto-win --- see the above quoted post

MAKE SURE YOU TELL THE HOST THAT YOU'RE TARGETING THEM -- YOU DON'T KILL THEM AFTER DEATH, YOU KILL THEM UPON DEATH.

[Helz]

It’s not a waste in case someone gets sceptical.
You should use it on me.

Not gona happen. I really don’t think you need to be cleared and it burns something I plan on hanging onto.

[Helz]

@Helz
You also don’t understand.
You are NOT night immune anymore, it wears off tonight.

No. I never was night immune. It was bullshit wild card manipulation that made us think I was.

[Helz]

@oliverz144

we're planning to vote you off so you can vengeful kill scumbot

this works so we can clear both you guys in one day, which leads to auto-win --- see the above quoted post

MAKE SURE YOU TELL THE HOST THAT YOU'RE TARGETING THEM -- YOU DON'T KILL THEM AFTER DEATH, YOU KILL THEM UPON DEATH.

If we come up with a near total mechanical crunch I will get behind this and push for it. Otherwise I really do townread Oliver and would put him very low in the PoE for elimination.

Would rather have him vengeful target and have our ghost push an evil teacher paring on him after a side lynch without looking at the numbers. Haven’t really dug into it and I’m half in drunk mode now but that feels more optimal than a lynch especially if I set up a if/then scenario.

I have only been wrong about very small details in this game so far and I think our ghost will follow my lead.

[MartinGG99]

Just realized there is ofc one more way to frick the plan, which is mafia vengeful killing Helz.

But I don't think that breaks the plan. In the end, that allows Scumbot to do a check with his cat since he wasn't killed by mafia Vengeful. Regardless of Scumbot being town or mafia, it'll cause the resulting PoE to shrink by one so that there's a 1v1 thunderdome by next day phase.

See the logic below:

Because then Luka and I just need to do this:

Commit to protecting helz, and if Oli murders Helz, we commit to protecting Huo Huo. If mafia doesn't NK Mizery, we get full alignment checks on Me/MM/Luka and leaves game at Oli/DM and Oli/Scumbot as possible teams.

If mafia does NK Mizery, then that opens things up to

Martin/Oli
DM/Oli
Scumbot/Oli

However, since we're assuming a mafia vengeful DOES NOT kill @Scum bot5678 , we can just send the cat to one of these people and force a check via cat regardless.

[MartinGG99]

er
@scumbot5679

Basically please send your cat to one of Martin/DM. If Oli is mafia vengeful he may try to kill Helz in which case that leaves you open to do a check.

[MartinGG99]

I'm preety confident in this plan. I'll type up a better formatted one probably sometime tomorrow IRL.

[MartinGG99]

I think our ghost will follow my lead.

frankly

the ghost wants Mizery to lose so

if any plan gets town to auto-win, and town goes with plan #1 via voting out X, Varcron probably follows that plan

[scumbot5679]

er
@scumbot5679

Basically please send your cat to one of Martin/DM. If Oli is mafia vengeful he may try to kill Helz in which case that leaves you open to do a check.

If Oliver doesn't kill me then I will

[Dark Magician]

@Helz
Reads can be wrong.
Despite my fantastic read accuracy on Lily and Cape I was wrong on what evil Mizery was.

Mechanically Oliver and Scumbot both dying today makes town’s chance of winning basically almost 100%.
Not killing Oliver and them being wolf loses us the game or has a damn good chance to, you understand this right?

[Dark Magician]

It’s like you are just make optimally bad plays today.
Like I don’t know why in the actual fuck you think not using your ability at all is better then targeting me.

[Dark Magician]

If you want to use your ability on someone else you should do so today.
However, perhaps there is something I’m not seeing.
If the Protectives can 100% protect you tonight without issues then yes ok I can understand not using it on anyone today and makes sense why you don’t use it on me.

But let me go over that.

[Dark Magician]

Ok I checked.
Martin and Luka can protect you without issue.

@Luka
@Martin

The way I see it there is no reason to check Hau because if wolves kill Hau then it just confirms MM as Town.

[Dark Magician]

to protect Hau*


The best protection is Helz so um yeah.
Helz is right they don’t need to use their ability until tomorrow.

[Dark Magician]

We also can do Scumbot instead of Oliver as even if they are a wolf if we get rid of them last.

Technically it is more optimal to do like:
Scumbot Execution Today.
Oliver Execution Tomorrow.

[Dark Magician]

So forget what I said, Helz is right.

Helz cannot die tonight as long as both Martin and Luka is on them.
Hau dying tonight confirms MM as town.
Hau gets a check off tonight, I recommend Martin and Luka.
Varcron chooses MM and Martin tonight.

We execute Scumbot today.
We use Helz ability tomorrow to get a confirmed and Oliver can also be used as a Vengeful or just execute him then just in case.
This game play should be game winning

[Dark Magician]

@Helz

I am sorry for
1)Doubting your Plan.
2)Pinging you so much.

[Dark Magician]

It’s like you are just make optimally bad plays today.
Like I don’t know why in the actual fuck you think not using your ability at all is better then targeting me.

I do apologize for this.
This was unnecessary.

[Dark Magician]

So forget what I said, Helz is right.

Helz cannot die tonight as long as both Martin and Luka is on them.
Hau dying tonight confirms MM as town.
Hau gets a check off tonight, I recommend Martin and Luka.
Varcron chooses MM and Martin tonight.

We execute Scumbot today.
We use Helz ability tomorrow to get a confirmed and Oliver can also be used as a Vengeful or just execute him then just in case.
This game play should be game winning

This here is actually the winning Strat.

[Dark Magician]

Example even if Tau dies and let’s say somehow Scumbot flipped town.

Oliver
Helz
MM
Martin
Luka

MM and Helz are confirmed town.
Oliver is confirmed mafia.
One of the Protectives (Martin and Luka) are mafia, however at that point if we trust Varcron to go with the plan it would just be Luka meaning:
Luka and Oliver would be the team.

Again, Game Winning Strat.

[Dark Magician]

Plus if Oliver is Mafia Vengeful we just kill Helz. So it is best to deal with Oliver after the other mafia member when Helz does their thing tomorrow.

[Dark Magician]

Also BTW Helz you were night immune, Helz takes the ability they don’t fake the ability.

[Dark Magician]

Wild takes the ability*
Not Helz lol, sorry spelling error.

Also sorry guys for speaking so much lol, all I can do this game!!

[oliverz144]

I don't even know what other wolf roles would exist but i doubt soul mate among all village roles the most

still think that Oli has big wolf equity and legit don't see why people are townreading him because his reactions to everything around cape was horrendous and that doesn't get negated by "he's pure and look at his energy" because energy means nothing when you have shit progressions and posts and interactions

my shit progression voting and scumreading cape since d1 =)
guys we are winning this. Nice <3

[Dark Magician]

This entire time I didn’t realize Genshin Impact was a Mobile game
But I now know it is as it’s made by the same makers as Honkai: Star Rail

[oliverz144]

I don't even know what other wolf roles would exist but i doubt soul mate among all village roles the most

still think that Oli has big wolf equity and legit don't see why people are townreading him because his reactions to everything around cape was horrendous and that doesn't get negated by "he's pure and look at his energy" because energy means nothing when you have shit progressions and posts and interactions

yeah guys i will read eod2 and sod3
but first all your pings and notifs

[oliverz144]

@oliverz144

we're planning to vote you off so you can vengeful kill scumbot

this works so we can clear both you guys in one day, which leads to auto-win --- see the above quoted post

MAKE SURE YOU TELL THE HOST THAT YOU'RE TARGETING THEM -- YOU DON'T KILL THEM AFTER DEATH, YOU KILL THEM UPON DEATH.

yeah, okay. i target scumbot (numbers.)
was a cool time guys, ngl

-vote oliverz144

and yeah ik how my role works xD, thanks for the message tho

[oliverz144]

idk yet how its auto but i trust you

[oliverz144]

@Mizery
@MartinGG99
@scumbot5679
@Luka
@Helz
@Dark Magician
@oliverz144
@Lilypetal
@bwcPorscha

come play

yes sir!

[Dark Magician]

Oliver change of plans, we are going with Helz plan.
We are killing Scumbot.
Better to do that in the case your a wolf so you don’t Venge kill Helz.
Your alignment should be sorted easily tomorrow and if not you will have a Venge shot on a confirmed wolf.

[Dark Magician]

As even if you are town, it’s better to save your Venge shot for tomorrow where it matters allot.

[oliverz144]

I don't even know what other wolf roles would exist but i doubt soul mate among all village roles the most

still think that Oli has big wolf equity and legit don't see why people are townreading him because his reactions to everything around cape was horrendous and that doesn't get negated by "he's pure and look at his energy" because energy means nothing when you have shit progressions and posts and interactions

the way we got off mizery and mm on yesterdays lynchbwas strange
im reading eod2 when i left and will look for that.
but i guess you already solved the game?
\°o°/

[oliverz144]

As even if you are town, it’s better to save your Venge shot for tomorrow where it matters allot.

oh ok
then i target my venge back

[oliverz144]

welp the 1 time martin cites song lyrics shall forever exist in shame

its the end of the world as we know it..... haha....

its ok.

[oliverz144]

That's... abysmal. What, am I supposed to root and become a tree too afterwards? I don't think that makes any sense, since we'd lack town votes at some point. It's better than straight up spending the lynch on me, but it's very bloody trash. My answer is no, not unless I'm straight up dying anyway.


Just remove "scum" from here and you'll be right, because this is entirely bullshit lol, and I don't need to be scum to find it dumb

yeahh MM can go get lynched ig?