S-FM 353: Death Nominations

[Wiml]

My vote+noms list would be something like:

Scumbot
MM
Varcron
Lol

Pending what else I can get done before deadline.

[bakermir]

In either scenario, I'd appreciate you explaining your top 2 townreads to me.

My top town reads are tutuu, vittae, and martin, in no particular order. I believe it's unlikely that all three of you are Mafia, and I wouldn't want to see any of you eliminated this early in the game.

Regarding cyan, it's a bit complex to explain. Yellows haven't provided enough material to earn a higher tr than the greens or cyans, and while I can construct a comprehensive argument for why I see scumbot as mafia, that's just my personal perspective. I don't intend to be the driving force behind any elimination today, as long as we don't eliminate anyone from the green or cyan groups; they are off the chopping board for me.

I could also share a page from my spreadsheet, but I doubt it would make much sense without explaining the thought process and the trail of posts I have been following. I think it's a bit early for me to leak all my thoughts to the thread, as I recognize that my reads are likely wrong given the early stage of the game (with no flips).

[Wiml]

I also hadn't realised he'd posted quite so little as he actually had.

This applies to his post count but I moreso meant the length / quality of his posts.

There's only two posts that contain reads that aren't just IIoA / commentary in his ISO and in both of those there's nothing about the solving that goes beyond the surface level / things that I think would be remotely difficult to fake.

The commentary posts just point out things that are very obvious already and don't go anywhere, making them seem very much like busywork.

[Wiml]

My top town reads are tutuu, vittae, and martin, in no particular order. I believe it's unlikely that all three of you are Mafia, and I wouldn't want to see any of you eliminated this early in the game.

Regarding cyan, it's a bit complex to explain. Yellows haven't provided enough material to earn a higher tr than the greens or cyans, and while I can construct a comprehensive argument for why I see scumbot as mafia, that's just my personal perspective. I don't intend to be the driving force behind any elimination today, as long as we don't eliminate anyone from the green or cyan groups; they are off the chopping board for me.

I could also share a page from my spreadsheet, but I doubt it would make much sense without explaining the thought process and the trail of posts I have been following. I think it's a bit early for me to leak all my thoughts to the thread, as I recognize that my reads are likely wrong given the early stage of the game (with no flips).

I think I get you.

I like hearing the way people solve, right or wrong, both out of curiosity and because I think as you lean more about the way a specific person thinks and solves you can get inside their heads ans they become exponentially easier to read. If you've got stuff to share then I'd be very eager to look but I won't try to force it since I'm generally unwilling to share my own personal notes and I don't plan on being a hypocrite.

What do you think Varcron in particular has done to provide enough material to earn a higher townread from you? That's definitely one I'm very interested in hearing more about.

[bakermir]

Those convos don't feel like they're going through the motions of being forced to talk to each other in thread. So >rand not w/w.

I agree. Keeping this in mind lets go back at your reads again:

I'd say that Vittae would be the one I'm potentially misclearing, because I've seen them snow town as mafia in past games.
MM/Varcron is PoE, and I'm thinking that if i'm wrong on lol. Martin is probably the townie who I'm incorrectly slotting into PoE.

It would be one of Varcron/MM mainly because I have townier players in my list than those 2.

Probably Vittae, though I'm unsure who would fit as the 3rd mafia in this team.

You have Vittae/?? or Martin/?? + MM/Varcron

That still leaves us with two mafia members if we stop circling around the names. We need three.

Have you had an opportunity to review your reads and see if anything has changed? @CRichardForumLies

[Wiml]

Any people online who aren't voting MM or Scumbot who'd be willing to vote either of those slots so we can tie the wagons at a higher number and make them less prone to manipulation?

[Wiml]

I'm not willing to leave the wagons tied with the current 2-2-2 tie.

[Wiml]

The current three-way tie wagon formation is basically never going to result in a dead wolf and even if we try to agree on a specific person to vote out of the three that person can justifiably self pres onto somebody else and break the tie without necessarily even looking bad for it.

Plus 2 votes < 3 wolves and I don't need to explain why that's so prone to manipulation.

A wolf flip is very unlikely unless the wagons are w/w/w and that's not something I think is at all likely either.

[Wiml]

I didn't realise that EoD was so close already.

Ikarus are you around and would you be willing to move to consolidate the wagons while keeping a tie?

[Wiml]

Is there seriously nobody here again at EoD?

[CRichardForumLies]

I'm here. Who is at 2 votes each?

[Wiml]

I'm breaking the tie onto MM if nobody's willing to consolidate.

[Wiml]

I'm here. Who is at 2 votes each?

MM-Scumbot-Tutuu

[Wiml]

Scumbot-MM should be the wagons we consolidate onto.

[CRichardForumLies]

I'd go MM 1st over Scumbot.

[Wiml]

An extension is great but absolutely not worth the cost of risking a flip on Tutuu if MM or Scumbot try to self pres.

[Wiml]

I'd go MM 1st over Scumbot.

I'll move onto MM at :59 to prevent shenanigans then.

[Wiml]

MM's not my first choice but I think he's scummy enough where I don't mind seeing him flip today.

[Wiml]

Is MM still not even voting yet?

That makes these wagons impossible to tie then.

[Wiml]

-vote Marshmallow Marshall

[CRichardForumLies]

Varcron is a name I haven't seen in town lists, yet isn't getting votes. That adds fuel to the fire on them being UTR mafia.

[powerofdeath]

scumbot5679 (1):
bakermir

Marshmallow Marshall (3):
scumbot5679, Vittae,

tutuu (2):
lol, ikarusdk

The Scarlet Letters (1):
tutuu

[powerofdeath]

Marshmallow Marshall was lynched. His role is Town.

You have 24 hours to nominate three players that will be up for lynching tomorrow. Day 2 will begin immediately as soon as you lock in your nomination. It could start in 5 min or 24 hours. I will ping everyone on Discord when Day 2 begins.

[powerofdeath]

Player List:
1. MartinGG99
2. Marshmallow Marshall - Lynched Day 1
3. Varcron
4. ikarusdk
5. tutuu
6. scumbot5679
7. Vittae
8. bakermir
9. lol
10. CRichardForumLies The Scarlet Letters (Nancy/Italiano Hydra)

White = Alive, Color = Dead with alignment reveal This list will be updated as game start to unfold.

[powerofdeath]

Day 2 has begun!

Marshmallow Marshall nominated:


CRichardForumLies; lol; Varcron


Day 2 end on Monday, 10:40 AM EST. Click here for reference to when Day 2 end.

If you have any questions, do not hesitate to DMs me on Discord or via the website.

[powerofdeath]

A nominee is allowed to vote other nominees before anyone ask.

[Wiml]

Not my ideal list of nominations but at least one we can work with.

[Wiml]

What I'm going to do myself and what I also suggest everyone else does is focus on talking about and solving the nominated names as a priority.

Obviously solving everyone and trying to solve the game on a wider scale is still important but with how stagnant discussion was for large parts of D1 we should absolutely be prioritising the imminent issue of "who is the most likely wolf in the list of nominations?" above all else.

[Wiml]

And, while this is hopefully much less of an issue now that only three wagons can legally voted, having the lead wagon only have 2 votes is not something that should ever again be happening close to EoD.

Nobody should be having no vote placed down closer to EoD. If, for some reason, this doesn't happen and very few votes are down then consolidating wagons is absolutely still key.

[Wiml]

Sorry for kind of ranting over this, I'm still pretty frustrated by how the situation ended up going down earlier and we're absolutely not allowing EoDs with wagons like that to happen again.

[Wiml]

I have concerns with Varcron's re-entrance but I'd like to see his responses to me before I go any further there.

[Wiml]

It's probably the right call for me to give him space until later in the cycle, at the very least, and not just accidentally bury the guy before he gets the chance to demonstrate some solving.

[Wiml]

Just me here again?

[tutuu]

Omg i fell asleep what happened

[tutuu]

Just to be transparent i would have voted mm here if i was here

[Wiml]

Just to be transparent i would have voted mm here if i was here

Where's your head at atm with regards to the nominations?

[Wiml]

Baker feels more likely to be town, mainly because I haven't disliked any of their posts today.

Was this a meta-related read?

[tutuu]

I can't comment on why lol voted tutuu initially.

My vote was completely separate from lol's, and even though I said I knew it was going to tie up the votes in a 3 way, that was not my intention to do so.

The reason I voted tutuu was not because of fluff posts or anything. In fact, I liked them quite a bit. It's because some of their posts worry me as to why they worded them that way, and especially after tutuu kept going after scumbot/Richard slot (which now seems to have veered off a bit).

Examples.



- something pinged me as I was reading this waking up this morning. Like, something felt kinda off. If tutuu is reading baker town (but has the potential to be wolf), and tutuu himself is town here, why is he using 'he's not w/w with me'? Hear me out. Tutuu himself is town. Sees baker probably town, less likely to be wolf. So we are not w/w?? Doesn't sound a little off to you guys? Wouldn't you rather phrase it so it's 't/w'?





These two posts also make me suspect tutuu is further pocketing vittae (although based on vittae's posts, it's easy to townread him). This is further supplemented by the fact tutuu has now spent majority of the day pushing for scumbot/richard slots because tutuu is 'sheeping' their towncore reads, independent of their absent scumread on their slots. It feels like because Vittae is town from W!Tutuu's POV, by towncoring Vittae early, and sheeping his reads and pushing the same prospects, tutuu hopes to get townread by Vittae (which tutuu succeeded).

I explored into the idea of Vittae being a scum with tutuu and that second post i quoted was made to distance themselves a little. My early prediction/speculation is that if Vittae is scum, tutuu is scum. But if Tutuu is scum, Vittae does not have to be.

Also I still am not convinced from their response/answers to my pressure. In fact, their answers to my posts aren't really helping me with my suspicions.

I mentioned we're not w/w coz that was my fleeting thought

I had remembered baker longing to be w/w with me

So then i quite literally wasnt w/w with him. It was also just funny to me to say stuff like that sometimes. Bit of a stone face humor. Like, imagine a character from The Office saying that

U think im a wolf who forgot that im supposed to pretend im town? Wolves are more conscious of these things. Im town and i didnt and dont care about manipulating. I think i temd to be scummier as town than when im wolf

Anyway this is a pretty towny post. A lot of depth here, about me and vittae. U mentioned ur new. No shot u fake that as wolf imo. U can be town. But pls stop trying to kill me man, friendly fire 😂

[Wiml]

I can vouch for Ikarus being a relatively new player to FM, yeah.

[tutuu]

One of the things I enjoy about FoL is I can copy/paste my snips into the thread.

Same its magic how u can also post image links and it automatically converts them to embedded images without u having to go through imgur amd whatnot

[Wiml]

And that he's very likely town for reasons I'll go into depth on later but are pretty low priority for me compared to some more immediate things I want to spend my time looking at.

[tutuu]

Those convos don't feel like they're going through the motions of being forced to talk to each other in thread. So >rand not w/w.

Hm

Richard was just impressed by an unorthodox read i made earlier. "Tutuu never comes up w this as mafia"

So for him to make one of his own of a similar caliber - i think this is >rand town

Problem is whos mafia atp. Coz im misclearing at least 1 if not 2

[Wiml]

Ideally I'd also like to get around to rereading the recent wolf game of Ikarus' in more detail but I'm not sure if I'll get enough time to do that I enough detail within the next week hours.

[Wiml]

*24 hours

[Wiml]

Hm

Richard was just impressed by an unorthodox read i made earlier. "Tutuu never comes up w this as mafia"

So for him to make one of his own of a similar caliber - i think this is >rand town

Problem is whos mafia atp. Coz im misclearing at least 1 if not 2

What is it about this specific read that seems unorthodox to you?

Unless I'm missing what you're getting at, isn't that basically what Baker was also saying?

[tutuu]

My top town reads are tutuu, vittae, and martin, in no particular order. I believe it's unlikely that all three of you are Mafia, and I wouldn't want to see any of you eliminated this early in the game.

Regarding cyan, it's a bit complex to explain. Yellows haven't provided enough material to earn a higher tr than the greens or cyans, and while I can construct a comprehensive argument for why I see scumbot as mafia, that's just my personal perspective. I don't intend to be the driving force behind any elimination today, as long as we don't eliminate anyone from the green or cyan groups; they are off the chopping board for me.

I could also share a page from my spreadsheet, but I doubt it would make much sense without explaining the thought process and the trail of posts I have been following. I think it's a bit early for me to leak all my thoughts to the thread, as I recognize that my reads are likely wrong given the early stage of the game (with no flips).

Spreadsheet? O_O

Ok wait im getting a bit paranoid now lmao

This is mega towny but like. I dont remember seeing u put in this much passion into it with like. Tools. Like stuff that isnt posts.

So this is new to me. I am a bit paranoid u could be too towny to be town. As town before uve always been a bit of a gremlin

Can i ask - where did this passion to put in this effort in this particular game come from?

[tutuu]

God Vittae posts a lot. Theyre like a budget JaggedJimmyJay. I tend to get snowed by players like that. Idk how im supposed to catch players like that wolfing. I think he's town 🤷

[tutuu]

What I'm going to do myself and what I also suggest everyone else does is focus on talking about and solving the nominated names as a priority.

Obviously solving everyone and trying to solve the game on a wider scale is still important but with how stagnant discussion was for large parts of D1 we should absolutely be prioritising the imminent issue of "who is the most likely wolf in the list of nominations?" above all else.

I agree

[tutuu]

Where's your head at atm with regards to the nominations?

I need a few hours to marinate and think it out

Gun to ahead my initial reaction is to kill lol

But i wanna think a bit more about lol, remind myself of my past games with him, and make sure that im not doing it out of annoyance

[Wiml]

If we flip mafia today, do they put in 3 town as their nominees or throw in 1 of their buddies for WIFOM?

Was there a particular reason why you asked this question when you did?

Obviously there's the whole WIFOM aspect if it did get discussed so I'm interested in hearing what you thought the benefit in talking about it was.