S-FM 352: ★ Silent Night 2 ★

[Wiisp]

no idea why killing arrow was harder than it needed to be

[Wiisp]

also mac probably isnt the wolf, but thats a read based on reading into the night kills which I dont believe he makes
but still very wrong, which isnt really a good look for the on the other hand
meh

[Stellaria]

Kill Order

Martin - why was he killed?

Loldebite - The flip we just got for Arrow confirms there's an Actress in this game (and is the last mafia), so Mafia probably sniped Deb night 1. Which makes me wonder; could the last Mafia (or any of them) have felt threatened by Deb day1? Gonna have to look into that

Powerofdeath - Powerofdeath over Ultra here is strange. At this point, Ultra was mod-confirmed, so one would think it'd make sense to just target Ultra to leave Powerofdeath as a potential miselim in the future. But I don't think this is the case. I think that if there were any scum among the three ghosts, it would've just been one of them, and Dark Magician had been eliminated the day before. Maybe they were thinking that this made Powerofdeath look really legit. But still weird to kill Ultra over PoD because of the mech clear from Martin. Maybe they also thought there was a healer or something so decided to dodge the obvious choice? Probably not. So maybe it's just because PoD was a power role? This is the simplest explanation I think so I'll stick with it.

Ultra - town mech clear, I think this was the obvious choice

[Stellaria]

I feel like there's something significant to Martin dying first that I'm missing

[Stellaria]

Think I should note right out of the gate it seems we have post-death mechanics based on my role. So you all may want to take a moment to think before heading off just because you died in so-and-so future.

The reasoning I have for that is not fool-proof though as there's like a 5% chance its a mechanical red herring or I'm severely misinterpreting things.



As for favorite holiday, I'm a heretic that has none and doesn't celebrate any really. Holidays sometimes feel like socially mandated standards and that imo diminishes the special meaning of these events. If you want to have a very meaningful experience with someone, just plan something separate out or do it semi-spontaneously. That's just my opinion though that's likely somewhat biased by some really token experiences.

oh, duh, I completely missed this *facepalm*

[Stellaria]

Okay so martin probably got killed for having post-death mech based on his role, guess he kinda outed himself and got rekt for it

Deb probably got n1 Actress sniped

PoD got got because he's a power role

and Ultra died for being too good


@Wiisp While I don't think you and mac are paired anymore at this point, I don't think these reasonings for any of the kills happening incriminate or exclude anybody from being scum.

And even if there were some reason mac wouldn't make a particular kill, that wouldn't mean his teammate wouldn't.

[Stellaria]

If you've got another interpretation for them then I'd love to talk about it

[Stellaria]

Uh. It is, tho lol

that right after a slight AtE is making all kinds of alarms go off

you're not TL anymore

in fact you're SL

there's this i guess but it seems weak

[Wiisp]

@Stellaria
well its not lylo so their arent two wolves alive for one, and strictly speaking I think wolf!Mac always just kills DK
but like i said, there are still other things not related to night kills that make mac look bad, like being wrong on arrow.
but that also leads to, why didnt they vote me if they are a wolf with Arrow

but then u look at DK, DK wanted the order of Me -> Mac -> Arrow

gun to my head without doing any work outside what my brain remembers, its literally just DK

[Stellaria]

Now that butting in feels agenda-y

actually maybe scum caught on to dark magician being the third person and killed deb to avoid any attention being put on him? eh, still weak

[ikarusdk]

I mean I guess it just comes down to mac/wiisp fmpov, one of these two is the wolf.

Unless it is stellaria or MM ofc, in which case I accept defeat.

[Stellaria]

@Stellaria
well its not lylo so their arent two wolves alive for one, and strictly speaking I think wolf!Mac always just kills DK
but like i said, there are still other things not related to night kills that make mac look bad, like being wrong on arrow.
but that also leads to, why didnt they vote me if they are a wolf with Arrow

but then u look at DK, DK wanted the order of Me -> Mac -> Arrow

gun to my head without doing any work outside what my brain remembers, its literally just DK

do you think scum!Ikarus puts out an order like Wisp > Mac > Arrow when his teammate is one of the two likely people to be eliminated today?

Asking genuinely because I dunno

[Stellaria]

I mean I guess it just comes down to mac/wiisp fmpov, one of these two is the wolf.

Unless it is stellaria or MM ofc, in which case I accept defeat.

if I had an MM in the back of my head he'd probably be yakkin my ear off about TRing you for saying this but I agree with this post and think you are town entirely separately from each other

[ikarusdk]

@Stellaria , I suggest looking into eod patterns around arrow lynch as well as DM and see if you can find something.

My pc is still buggered so any detailed post I make will take like an hour or more with multiple tabs which is gonna be too annoying.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Achro was fully telling the truth in every possible way and won through just being a cool guy. That is very satisfying and very wholesome ♥

[Stellaria]

I remember End of Day yesterday feeling really empty. So instincts tell me scum were already resolved to bussing Arrow? I dunno. I'll have to look at who voted

[Wiisp]

actually maybe scum caught on to dark magician being the third person and killed deb to avoid any attention being put on him? eh, still weak

it depends, did wolves know they have a lost wolf, or given that their are two wolves, it could have been soemthing they assumed
Mac certainly tried to stop both DM and Arrow kills, but idk if i want to read him as being a power wolfer, because i know as of recent they have been prett terrible in terms of finding wolves

but i think thats my poe right now, DK and Mac
MM confuses me but at this point I think they are just uninformed, honestly even if i assume they might be informed I' not even sure what their game plans have been with their votes and vote swaps.
like why go out of your way to randomly defend me and vote Arrow, when in this world, town!DK is literally burying me and then Mac? it just doesnt make sense for wolf!MM to play so suboptimally

[Stellaria]

This attitude, while probably stemming from a genuine anger, is not towny, considering you could be angry for being scumread as town or as scum. Besides, you're the one who said earlier that "your job was to lynch wolves, not be towny" or something like that. Well, you have indeed not been towny lol. You can't exactly blame us for not thinking you town when you yourself admit that you don't play towny - and even less so when you lynched Kuti for not playing conventionally. Honestly, I have a bad feeling about your lynch, just because you now feel like a townie (that's really just gut tbh) and because my DM/Wisp associative read is pretty much dead. That said, assuming Ikarus and Stellaria are town - which I am kinda ready to assume, tbh -, lynching Arrow/Mac/you just makes us win, considering Ultra is town. I do not see the scum team being BOTH ikarus and stellaria, like, ever, so this seems safe enough.


THAT BEING SAID. If we mislynch two players in a row among those three, we still lose. It still feels like Arrow is the scummiest here - and let's face it, we're never sparing Arrow in LYLO anyway. Thus, I think ousting Arrow right now is the best course of action

-vote Arrow

Oooo, your point is that Achro actually helps us more than anything? Hm. I guess he indeed doesn't change anything to our number of available mislynches, while he has all advantage to follow town votes with his targets. Hm.

-vote Wiisp

these two back-to-back posts look kinda weird in hindsight

[ikarusdk]

do you think scum!Ikarus puts out an order like Wisp > Mac > Arrow when his teammate is one of the two likely people to be eliminated today?

Asking genuinely because I dunno

Eh I'd buy wiisps accusation about me going wiisp > mac > arrow if it weren't for the fact I was 33/33/33 on all three and was definitely willing to risk a mislynch, also only wiisps was talking at that point so I naturally focused on wiisp.

I am not going to assume I knew arrow would flip mafia because I definitely did not, I still insist that I was looking at all three equally.

Also voting someone who isn't here and is a lhf isn't AI. Voting someone for their content is AI. And I'd like to argue that mine was towny.

[Wiisp]

I remember End of Day yesterday feeling really empty. So instincts tell me scum were already resolved to bussing Arrow? I dunno. I'll have to look at who voted

well im just voting my counter wagon always, and i would buss arrow if I was a wolf with them, just like a bussed you in my qualifier game

[ikarusdk]

Also acting like oh yeah ika tried to leave wolf arrow till last.

That is 1000% either perfect hindsight observation or TMI

[Stellaria]

Also acting like oh yeah ika tried to leave wolf arrow till last.

That is 1000% either perfect hindsight observation or TMI

how do you TMI someone as the last remaining wolf, I don't get it

[Wiisp]

but why does MM buss there??

[ikarusdk]

I was clear in saying I am willing to RISK a mislynch yesterday, because fmpov then the other two remaining are wolves and town is gonna win.

And now because it wasn't a mislynch, it's easy to say I tried to leave arrow till last, which I agree because of whole achro thing. But you can't exactly blame me for the flip.

[Wiisp]

how do you TMI someone as the last remaining wolf, I don't get it

its tmi becayse they assume by the way i am talking, that I know mac is town

[Stellaria]

but why does MM buss there??

eh actually this is correct. in my head when I posted that and re-read the posts I thought MM unvoted you because the elimWisp train was losing steam but actually he was the first to do it

[Stellaria]

its tmi becayse they assume by the way i am talking, that I know mac is town

i still dont think i get it but thakns

[ikarusdk]

how do you TMI someone as the last remaining wolf, I don't get it

Knowing arrow is a wolf, W!ika would've tried to delay arrow death till mylo. Which I actually ended up trying to do, bit for the entirely different reasons.

So that is the bit I buy from Wiisp, except you guys need to see the difference between a wolf me doing that and town ika doing that. I think I was clear in my approach

[Wiisp]

I was clear in saying I am willing to RISK a mislynch yesterday, because fmpov then the other two remaining are wolves and town is gonna win.

And now because it wasn't a mislynch, it's easy to say I tried to leave arrow till last, which I agree because of whole achro thing. But you can't exactly blame me for the flip.

i can, but its also why u dont try to play the game like its solved if u are town, cause thats how u lose games

and what we do know is that ur list had a wolf at the end, so if mac is town, lynching e yesterday and them today would have lost the game

[Stellaria]

I still dont understand the TMI part

sorry I dont mean to be dumb here Im just trying to understand

[ikarusdk]

Anyway tho I think it is simply a matter of time till town wins. We are allowed one mislynch. If everyone agrees to lynch mac here and is a mislynch, stellaria and MM decide on between ika and wiisp

[Stellaria]

Anyway tho I think it is simply a matter of time till town wins. We are allowed one mislynch. If everyone agrees to lynch mac here and is a mislynch, stellaria and MM decide on between ika and wiisp

im so fucking lost dude im sorry

[ikarusdk]

Anyway tho I think it is simply a matter of time till town wins. We are allowed one mislynch. If everyone agrees to lynch mac here and is a mislynch, stellaria and MM decide on between ika and wiisp

But at that point I'm just voting wiisp and afking

[Stellaria]

the part there im lost about is why me and MM are deciding between you and wisp

like isn't it f3?

[ikarusdk]

im so fucking lost dude im sorry

Fmpov. We have one chance to be wrong. Mac or wiisp.

from T!Wiisp pov, we also have one chance to be wrong. Mac or ika.

So we vote Mac out, and if it is town flip, stellaria and MM, you guys will be deciding votes between ika or Wiisp

[ikarusdk]

the part there im lost about is why me and MM are deciding between you and wisp

like isn't it f3?

Wait.

We have 4 towns 1 m. If we mislynch, and there is a nk, we wake up with 2 towns 1m tomorrow

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Kill Order

Martin - why was he killed?

Loldebite - The flip we just got for Arrow confirms there's an Actress in this game (and is the last mafia), so Mafia probably sniped Deb night 1. Which makes me wonder; could the last Mafia (or any of them) have felt threatened by Deb day1? Gonna have to look into that

Powerofdeath - Powerofdeath over Ultra here is strange. At this point, Ultra was mod-confirmed, so one would think it'd make sense to just target Ultra to leave Powerofdeath as a potential miselim in the future. But I don't think this is the case. I think that if there were any scum among the three ghosts, it would've just been one of them, and Dark Magician had been eliminated the day before. Maybe they were thinking that this made Powerofdeath look really legit. But still weird to kill Ultra over PoD because of the mech clear from Martin. Maybe they also thought there was a healer or something so decided to dodge the obvious choice? Probably not. So maybe it's just because PoD was a power role? This is the simplest explanation I think so I'll stick with it.

Ultra - town mech clear, I think this was the obvious choice

I think the idea behind the POD kill was to remove the dead from the game as soon as possible; he was unlikely to be lynched anyway, considering he was a PR. That said, I still feel like killing Ultra then would have been the better choice, since there would have been wasted town discussion on PoD, but eh, it's not illogical enough to be impossible.

As for the Martin kill... idk, fearkill, perhaps? Or perhaps scum thought his "post-death mechanics" claim was a bait to avoid getting killed? Tbh, fearkill makes the most sense imo (and not killing someone for having post-death stuff, because that just... enables post-death stuff).


About looking for clues regarding votes on Arrow: Arrow was literally never voted before yesterday, except by Debbie on D1. Not much to be seen there. Scum were definetly happy with the LHF mislynches on D1 and D2, and either participated hard on them or just let it happen. I suspect the Banana lynch had more scum intervention than the Kuti one, considering scum didn't have to commit to the Kuti mislynch to see it happen (which doesn't help us terribly, tbh, since both Wisp and Mac were on it).


Looking at the rest, I'm actually pretty confident it's Mac now. I was way too tired when I posted at last EoD and should just have went to sleep without checking in here, because I was just saying nonsense XD. Wisp feels very towny now (which is a huge contrast to early game), while Mac just feels like he's disappeared, hoping not to make his situation worse and to let town impale itself on wrong suspicions towards other people. He's pretty much the only one not to have contributed ANYTHING and not to have showed a single ounce of solviness towards the lategame, while everyone was going in posting detailed hypotheses and all.

If Mac flips town, I will be quite surprised and lost, tbh.

[Wiisp]

Anyway tho I think it is simply a matter of time till town wins. We are allowed one mislynch. If everyone agrees to lynch mac here and is a mislynch, stellaria and MM decide on between ika and wiisp

again we are not playing like this, this is how we lose games
there is absolutely no reason to lock lynches to anyone in town!Mac worlds, since MM is still pretty weird tonally
and I still dont particularly understand how they progressed to me being town, so while I dont see why MM would buss, i can't pretend that they still arent wolfy and confusing

the only thing I will agree on is that Stellar is town

[ikarusdk]

Either MM or stellaria are getting nkd if it is wiisp and we lynch mac here.

[Wiisp]

Wait.

We have 4 towns 1 m. If we mislynch, and there is a nk, we wake up with 2 towns 1m tomorrow

yes lol

[ikarusdk]

again we are not playing like this, this is how we lose games
there is absolutely no reason to lock lynches to anyone in town!Mac worlds, since MM is still pretty weird tonally
and I still dont particularly understand how they progressed to me being town, so while I dont see why MM would buss, i can't pretend that they still arent wolfy and confusing

the only thing I will agree on is that Stellar is town

But it's not like we can just sleep because wolf will always kill townreads first, so we wake up with another standstill

[ikarusdk]

And another mylo

[Stellaria]

fmpov it's one of Wisp or Mac. Eh I wasn't impressed with Wisp yesterday but I feel like this wisp stepped up their game

Are we all in agreement to just lim mac?

[ikarusdk]

Alright. I'll look into MM, but I'm saying that MM and Stellaria could not be more towny in my world.

[ikarusdk]

fmpov it's one of Wisp or Mac. Eh I wasn't impressed with Wisp yesterday but I feel like this wisp stepped up their game

Are we all in agreement to just lim mac?

Don't hammer just yet though.

[ikarusdk]

Wait for mac at least.

[Stellaria]

wasnt planning on it

[ikarusdk]

If only mac was here to explain his day 4. Because that just fucked my world view of him.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I remember End of Day yesterday feeling really empty. So instincts tell me scum were already resolved to bussing Arrow? I dunno. I'll have to look at who voted

Mac pretty much ended his contribution of the day with this:

Nah you know what fuck it, I'm Mac and I don't play that.

-vote ikarusdk

Let's dance homie.

and saying he suspected Arrow was town

I was going to say he was probably hoping to save Arrow by getting Wisp lynched first, but it could also be genuine, and I'm realizing this basically means nothing because you can see it both ways with pretty much equal probability

[Wiisp]

But it's not like we can just sleep because wolf will always kill townreads first, so we wake up with another standstill

no im just saying, do ur due diligence if u are town if we end up in f3 after killing mac