S-FM 351: Mini Fooling Party

[Auwt]

(I have read some future post, claim and votes)

I like the fact that at first Gikkle put MM on the no-no list and then changed.
It's not like they would keep focusing an agenda, at least for that part of D1

Now the question is, is Gikkle's lead legit, or opportunistic as we are close to to lose.

[Auwt]

Looking at how things are going I would say that if we take the (Gikkle + MM) group, I don't see them BOTH being town.
I expect at least one of them to be triad.

[Gikkle]

Now the question is, is Gikkle's lead legit, or opportunistic as we are close to to lose.

I mean MM admitted to killing Ikarus lol

[Gikkle]

@Innovation @bakermir @Flea the Magician @Auwt

If any of you are bus driver that swapped ME and IKARUS, please claim

[powerofdeath]

@Innovation @bakermir @Flea the Magician @Auwt

If any of you are bus driver that swapped ME and IKARUS, please claim

I think if bus driver swapped you two, MM is still wolf. If he was vigi on you and it got redirected to ika, then where did the wolf kill go? Did they also tried to kill you? The wolf killing role cant be roleblocked, so it have to go somewhere. MM is just fakeclaiming vigi imo, hes probably the dragonhead

[Gikkle]

I think if bus driver swapped you two, MM is still wolf. If he was vigi on you and it got redirected to ika, then where did the wolf kill go? Did they also tried to kill you? The wolf killing role cant be roleblocked, so it have to go somewhere. MM is just fakeclaiming vigi imo, hes probably the dragonhead

I don't see why wolves couldn't also have tried to kill me
I'm inclined to believe he's lying but I'd prefer to have all the facts straight

[bakermir]

@Innovation @bakermir @Flea the Magician @Auwt

If any of you are bus driver that swapped ME and IKARUS, please claim

Gikkle swap is correct but with Ikarus? naaaaaaaah

Best play was always to swap Gikkle with one in zero posters.

[bakermir]

I think if bus driver swapped you two, MM is still wolf. If he was vigi on you and it got redirected to ika, then where did the wolf kill go? Did they also tried to kill you? The wolf killing role cant be roleblocked, so it have to go somewhere. MM is just fakeclaiming vigi imo, hes probably the dragonhead

Problem is..

DH would never shoot at Gikkle. They would most likely shoot ikarus here since they did a good job at acting weird and hardclaiming citizen etc.

MM vig would never shoot Ikarus. There might be a world where they tried a hero shot on Gikkle though.

I also see another mechanical indicator; there is a good chance of MM being town but the problem is, I can't 100% confirm that world. I also don't find it beneficial talk more on it because bus driver and this role can actually stop another NK if they can find each other. I think seeing a vig without a gun/DH yeeted today is the best chance we have anyway

I don't think the bus driver should out because you guys can't see the hidden roles in the game atm and that creeps me out the most about Gikkle's posture

[bakermir]

Looking at how things are going I would say that if we take the (Gikkle + MM) group, I don't see them BOTH being town.
I expect at least one of them to be triad.

I kinda agree.

I am very confident in Corrupted Assessor targeting MM last night, as much as a bus driver targeted Gikkle.

I seriously don't believe DH targets Gikkle here.

[bakermir]

@Gikkle

can you please clarify your role and night action please? I don't want to think about if you visited ikarus or something something

[scumbot5679]

I don't see why wolves couldn't also have tried to kill me

what if scum DID try to kill you and the BD swapped you and ika

[scumbot5679]

Since I might not be around much tomorrow I'm going to go ahead and

vote:MM

[scumbot5679]

-vote MM

[powerofdeath]

-vote MM

you need to use his full name otherwise the bots wont detect it

[scumbot5679]

so now AI is taking over mafia? What the hell?

[scumbot5679]

-vote Marshmallow Marshall

[Innovation]

Hey guys, sorry i've been busy with doctors appointments and other chores. Let me catch up real quick

[Marshmallow Marshall]

This is such an awful post lol

Will respond to the wall of quotes in a sec, but in this post, you:

-Admit to have killing ikarus
-Claim to have tried to shoot the most active player (who you were townreading at EoD), someone who can be resolved via dayplay, instead of literally anyone else
-Vote me despite me accurately saying you visited Ikarus
-Ignore the fact that your claim, if true, doesn't explain where the dragonhead kill went
-Ignore the fact that if I was a triad that saw you visit someone that died, I would have no reason to bring it up against you?? What kind of powerwolf would go after a partner when all triad needs is like one ML lol

All in all another v bad post from you, will get to responding to the stuff in the spoiler in a sec

If there is a bus driver that bus drove me, they should claim. If not, MM is likely just a wolf.

Triads don't know eachother. That means getting a "confirmed town" status as triad is the surest way to victory. I am absolutely not ruling out the possibility you'd either have a result that says more than 1 player visited ikarus, or that you'd witch me.

As for the confidence, reading your ISO was enough for me not to want to have a likely powerwolf murder us all lol. Besides, in the event I would be wrong, I would still be pretty much confirmed vigilante (the action manipulation that occured screwed that up, but still), which is a great strength in a setup with a confirmed bus driver to bus me around.

+1 to bus driver claiming if there was indeed a switch between Gikkle and Ikarus, by the way; else, don't claim for nothing, and we will understand there was no swap between them.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I kinda agree.

I am very confident in Corrupted Assessor targeting MM last night, as much as a bus driver targeted Gikkle.

I seriously don't believe DH targets Gikkle here.

Huh? Why is that?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Also, unrelated to current action, but this post and the ones that closely follow it feel wrong, like Auwt is trying to play the "perfect townie" role. "Oh noes we lost town!" posts are usually not coming from town, apart from exceptions dictated by meta, and I don't think Auwt falls under that.

Ahh, well that does not look good at all.
What a start.

[Innovation]

I also think Inno could be scum. I just hate that he wasn't voting and willing to get his hands dirty.

[/QUOTE]

I tried to vote, but there were too many replies to the thead and it wouldnt go through before the deadline.

[Innovation]

Had I been here I wouldnt kept my vote on Ikarus, I wouldve swithed to someone else, probably to Innovation. While I understand this is his first game, his overall vibes Day 1 are just kinda like an active scum that isn't really doing anything but try to look active. Someone new as Town wouldve scumhunt a tad bit, I dont see much scumhunting from this slot.

Youre kinda contradicting yourself here. If you are following Ikarus, he was the only one that was hard town reading me.

As per his last will:

"About Innovation, His assessment about my early posts were spot on, although I gave up on faking a power role. This is what I meant by his instinct being sharp, and you guys shouldn't put his opinions aside, but rather listen."

So if you wouldnt have kept your vote on Ikarus, and Ikarus has a strong townread on me, then why would it make sense to vote for me considering his reads? It really seems like you're trying to deflect.

[powerofdeath]

Youre kinda contradicting yourself here. If you are following Ikarus, he was the only one that was hard town reading me.

As per his last will:

"About Innovation, His assessment about my early posts were spot on, although I gave up on faking a power role. This is what I meant by his instinct being sharp, and you guys shouldn't put his opinions aside, but rather listen."

So if you wouldnt have kept your vote on Ikarus, and Ikarus has a strong townread on me, then why would it make sense to vote for me considering his reads? It really seems like you're trying to deflect.

i dont care about other ppl reads, i follow my own reads

[powerofdeath]

youre acting like dead people's reads are 100% accurate

[Innovation]

youre acting like dead people's reads are 100% accurate

dead people reads? WHen he was alive his read was on you as well.

[powerofdeath]

dead people reads? WHen he was alive his read was on you as well.

right, give me less reasons to follow him

[MartinGG99]

@Flea the Magician has been modkilled for inactivity.

They were:

Spoiler : flip :

Citizen

There was no last will.


Technically this was not to occur for another ~15 minutes but I did it earlier for personal convivence.

[Gikkle]

will respond to posts directed at me in a bit

@Innovation @bakermir @Flea the Magician @Auwt

If any of you are bus driver that swapped ME and IKARUS, please claim

@Innovation can you acknowledge this post?

[MartinGG99]

@Flea the Magician has been modkilled for inactivity.

They were:

Spoiler : flip :

Citizen

There was no last will.


Technically this was not to occur for another ~15 minutes but I did it earlier for personal convivence.

As a result of the modkill, the # of votes to hammer (get 51+% votes) drops by one.

4 votes to hammer.

[Gikkle]

As a result of the modkill, the # of votes to hammer (get 51+% votes) drops by one.

4 votes to hammer.

inconvenient @bakermir @powerofdeath @scumbot5679

Can one of y'all unvote so we don't early hammer?

[Innovation]

Sorry im still reading and analyzing over what hapepned last night, its my first game after all. I'll get back to you asap

[Innovation]

will respond to posts directed at me in a bit


@Innovation can you acknowledge this post?

Okay, I've caught up. I agree with you that the BD should claim if it impacted the ikarus/gikkle/mm interaction.

[Gikkle]

Okay, I've caught up. I agree with you that the BD should claim if it impacted the ikarus/gikkle/mm interaction.

So you didn't bus drive me and ikarus?

[Innovation]

So you didn't bus drive me and ikarus?

I didn't bus you guys, it wouldn't make sense for me to do so since ikarus was shielding me, and swapping you with him doens't make sense at all. Im the last TH if MM s indeed vigi.

[Innovation]

That being said, i only have two reads right now:

Strong Town: Gikkle
ScuM: PoD. Reason being: He didn't contribute much day 1 and both SL and ikarus voted for him(im going to assume these are good players and they were town), and day2 he accuses me, even with ikarus's posts and lw and trying to deflect attention away from him.

[powerofdeath]

That being said, i only have two reads right now:

Strong Town: Gikkle
ScuM: PoD. Reason being: He didn't contribute much day 1 and both SL and ikarus voted for him(im going to assume these are good players and they were town), and day2 he accuses me, even with ikarus's posts and lw and trying to deflect attention away from him.

ikarus doesnt clear you like at all

[powerofdeath]

The 2 games I played with Ikarus when he was town, all of his reads were wrong, this game is not an exception

[Innovation]

The 2 games I played with Ikarus when he was town, all of his reads were wrong, this game is not an exception

If were going to use that logic, I cant say anything to refute since its literally my first game. And in this game, you cant be right 100% of the times. 2 games isn't a huge sample size. I also never said ikarus cleared me at all, Im saying that both ikarus and SL scumleaned towards you and they ended up being dead townies.

[powerofdeath]

this is one of the biggest “OMGUS” ive seen

[Gikkle]

@powerofdeath please unvote so we don't accidentally hammer

[Innovation]

this is one of the biggest “OMGUS” ive seen

what is OMGUS?

[powerofdeath]

what is OMGUS?

oh my god you sucks

aka you think the person that think you are a mafia is a mafia

[powerofdeath]

@powerofdeath please unvote so we don't accidentally hammer

no one will accidentally hammer, and if they do, its not an accident

[Gikkle]

no one will accidentally hammer, and if they do, its not an accident

I don't see the problem with just making sure it's not a possibility at all
not like you can't just re-vote later

[scumbot5679]

-unvote

[Gikkle]

Since it's been quite a bit past the 24 hour mark, and everyone has checked in saying they did NOT bus drive me or Ikarus, it's time I came clean.

My result on Marshmallow Marshall was a lie. It was a reaction fish. I did not see MM visit Ikarus. In fact, if MM is indeed lying about being controlled, then I was the one that was controlled/roleblocked. I won't say whether I'm detective or lookout or some other role, but my action was clearly messed with by something if MM is lying.
(also quick note that I didn't choose MM at random - I figured he was among the more likely to have performed that specific kill just based on some quick NKA, plus some residual sus from last EoD)

Getting MM to actually confess to the murder of Ikarus is not what I expected from this reaction fish, but hey, if it works, it works!
I suppose there's still technically the possibility that sure, the sorcerer could have controlled MM to Ikarus, but his claim is just super convenient (I think "vigi that was redirected trying to shoot the person that saw me visit the killed person" was probably the safest claim he could make without knowing if I was detective or lookout lol) & the DH would have to have killed the same person as him, which just makes it super unbelievable. Plus, shooting me is by itself enough to make me not trust him.

But that's not all! This whole day phase is FULL of reactions from people (and even more, the triad all had varying degrees of information, so it's more likely they slipped up somewhere). Because we have:

-The killer. This is almost certainly MM, so this is less relevant, BUT I will still include an analysis just in case.
The killer, if somehow it is NOT MM, will have a couple different reactions depending on whether they came on before or after MM's claim.
1. If they came on BEFORE, then they'll likely think I'm just straight up lying. Most likely, they're going to be very believing of my claim, a bit too NOT believing, or they're just gonna ignore it and see how the situation develops.
2. If they came on AFTER. then they're gonna think "Oh cool, free mislynch!" and just go super hard against MM.

-The liaison/sorcerer. This almost definitely exists regardless of if MM is telling the truth or not, so I can do some analysis based on how I think they would react.
The Liaison, who should know I was lying, will likely be extremely interested in the mechanical side of things, as they will be trying to be figuring out if I'm their triad buddy, or if maybe a locksmith stopped them and MM is indeed evil.
The sorcerer, if they targeted me, will probably think that I'm telling the truth about my result, but that perhaps whoever they controlled me to did the kill. They'll likely be very on board with pushing MM from the get go, but after the MM confession, they'll likely be a bit confused and will be even more interested in finding out what went down.
If the sorcerer controlled Vigi!MM, then most likely they're going to be trying to protect MM/avoid commiting themselves to an MM vote because they'll be concerned that MM could be the Dragon Head.

-The Corrupt Assessor
They have no hand in what went down, so the reaction of the Assessor is going to be the most hard to detect. However, because they have no reason to doubt my claim (especially after MM's confession), they're likely going to be a little bit reserved about actually going full against MM because they'll think he's actually their buddy. Most likely, the Assessor is going to hang back, or take a more "middle ground" approach where they leave themselves open to pushing either me OR MM.

Spoiler : Finding the Killer :

I will now go over the candidates for the killer if it is NOT MM

The killer will likely have one of three traits prior to MM's claim:
1. Believing my claim too readily
2. Doubting my claim too much
3. Avoiding the discussion altogether

The people that fit at least one of these categories prior to MM's claim:
PoD, Scumbot

The killer, AFTER MM's claim, will likely have went hard against MM because from their PoV it's a free mislynch.

The people that this applies to:
PoD, Scumbot

So, if MM is not the killer, I think it's probably one of the above two.
PoD - Very enthusiastic push to the point where if PoD is a Triad, it likely means he knows for sure MM isn't the killer (and is thus probably the killer himself)
Scumbot - Didn't really talk much about my info initially, which, if he's triad, is more indicative of being the killer over the other two since assessor is slightly more interested in learning more (not by much) & the hidden is actively interested in engaging with that conversation.

List of people I think are less likely to contain the killer based on their reactions:
Auwt - Only a few posts, but his first reaction - which was after MM admitted to the kill - was to cast doubt on the claim. The killer at this point should see MM as a free town lynch (whereas I could still be Triad from their PoV), so Auwt's reaction is slightly less likely to come from the killer.
Bakermir - Believed my claim initially but also questioned my claim in ways that felt like they weren't entirely sure whether I actually had caught the killer or not. Plus all the mech hints. 99% sure they're not the dragonhead.
Innovation - I just straight up don't think this slot kills Ikarus lol. Ikarus hard TRed em. But also they didn't seem too actively interested in the MM conversation which is slightly more indicative of not being the killer.


Dragon Head likeliness Ranked,

MM
>
PoD
>
Scumbot
>
Auwt
>
Innovation
>
Bakermir

Spoiler : Finding the Triad Hidden :

I will now go over the candidates for the Triad Hidden.

We have three likely possibilities in terms of Triad Hidden:

1. Sorcerer that controlled Marshmallow > Ikarus
2. Sorcerer that controlled me
3. Liaison that roleblocked me

In the first instance, the Sorcerer is going to think I'm telling the truth, and will thus be fairly reserved with fully pushing MM (especially after the MM claim).

That applies to,
Auwt, Bakermir, Innovation

In the second instance, the sorcerer is going to think that I'm telling the truth, but that someone ELSE performed the kill on Ikarus. Prior to the MM claim they'll be okay with pushing MM because they think they know the true killer, and AFTER the MM claim they'll be confused and thus will be super focused on finding out the mech of the situation.

That applies to,
Bakermir

In the third instance, the liaison is going to think that I'm lying. They are also going to try and figure out the mech of the situation, but are going to be playing more of a middle ground because they're not gonna be sure if MM is actually their buddy or if I'm lying.

That applies to,
Bakermir, Auwt

Thus I think Bakermir, Auwt, and Innovation are the three most likely to be the Triad Hidden, with Bakermir being the most likely.
Bakermir - I think I'll make another post for Baker. The evidence for them as the Hidden is abundant.
Auwt - Seemed to doubt my claim, which could come from liaison/sorcerer that knew I was lying.
Innovation - Can't say they were actually reserved, but they weren't here for enough of the day for me to say they are less likely to be the hidden. They were quick to take a mechanical stance (that they did not bus drive MM), and they put me as top town, so that makes them the least likely of the three to be the hidden.


List of people I think are less likely to contain the Triad Hidden based on their reactions:

PoD - Triad hidden is likely not going to commit to pushing MM as hard as PoD did since from their PoV they could very well be the dragon head.
Scumbot - Triad hidden is very mechanically interested in my claim, but he has displayed none of the interest I would expect from a triad hidden.
MM - He obviously doesn't claim to have shot Ikarus if he's a triad hidden who could do some other fake claim lol

Triad Hidden likeliness ranked,

Bakermir
>
Auwt
>
Innovation
>
PoD
>
Scumbot
>
MM

Spoiler : Finding the Assessor :

I will now go over the candidates for the Assessor.

The Assessor, before AND after, will likely have the same/a similar stance. They will not talk too much about the mech. The Assessor will likely have one of the following traits:
1. They engage with the claim as little as possible to keep their options open.
2. They take a "both sides" approach.

The people that fit one of the above categories:
Auwt, Scumbot

Thus it is likely that one of Auwt or Scumbot contains the Assessor.

Auwt, because the first thing they did was take a both sides approach. This is exactly what I expect an assessor would do - they are keeping their options open so they don't have to commit to pushing someone they think is their buddy.
Scumbot, because they've sort of avoided talking about it. This also what I'd expect from an Assessor - trying to not share your thoughts too much, while also going along with the mech, that way they're not stuck in a prison of their own words, but they can't be called out for not going along with it.

List of people I think are less likely to contain the Assessor based on their reactions:

Bakermir - Way too involved with the mechanical side of things. The assessor should have no idea what's going on, and should have no reason to be this interested in mech (nor should they have the implied mech knowledge bakermir apparently has).
MM - obviously he's not gonna claim to have visited ikarus if he didn't actually do it lol
PoD - hard committed himself to voting MM. Assessor is not interested in trapping themselves in this vote when there's still wiggle room.
Innovation - came in hard TRing me, something an assessor would not really want to do since that sort of prevents them from going against me. Probably the most likely of this list though.

Assessor likeliness ranked,

Auwt
>
Scumbot
>
Innovation
>
PoD
>
Bakermir
>
MM

[scumbot5679]

it's not so much that I just won't be around tomorrow but I was worried that I migght now be around. I don't think there's going to be any scenario where MM gets out of rope but I wanted to be on the safe side.

I agree somewhat that we could and should use the rest of our daylight to really hear from others but much like d1, I feel like no one is really doing anything.

[Gikkle]

Why I think Bakermir is the Triad Hidden (probably sorcerer but maybe the liaison)

Spoiler : Exhibit A: Mechanical Interest :

I think, given the three possibilities for what the triad hidden are, they likely have a LOT of interest in what went down last night. For this reason, anyone that shows a lot of mech interest is a prime candidate for hidden. And this is shown by bakermir immediately upon me claiming.

do we all claim in this case?

are you claiming Detective?

why shouldn't we claim? I think sharing our info today is the right play. I don't quite see town winning the 3v3

my last will was

hi bakermir the REDACTED here

night ? REDACTED hopefully they live

only role that can screw us is liaison and I don't think there is one seeing you weren't targetted

everything else in order of operations look town favored for a massclaim

Right after I claimed, Bakermir shows the highest amount of mechanical interest.

First, they ask if I'm claiming detective. They don't ask "are you lookout or detective", they ask "are you claiming detective". Note that a sorcerer that controlled me is INCREDIBLY interested in this specific bit of information, because if I WAS the detective, that would mean whoever they controlled me to was the dragon head!

Second, they introduce the idea of mass claiming. Note that both liaison and sorcerer are interested in this happening because it helps them know if I'M the evil, if MM is the evil, or (in the case of the sorcerer) if the person they controlled me to was dragon head.

Third, they specifically only mention that the Liaison would be a problem for town upon a mass claim (and also their casual drop of "I think liaison would have targeted you" really makes me more confident I was the bakermir's target lol). But sorcerer comes BEFORE liaison, and is much more dangerous. Why would they not mention this? I theorize that it's because either they ARE the liaison (and was specifically trying to hint at it to their triad buddies, although I think this is unlikely), or, more likely, it's because they're sorcerer and didn't want to bring up their own role.

Spoiler : Exhibit B: Dragonhead scumbot?? :

In a world where a sorcerer controlled me, they're gonna think they know the actual killer. And what are they gonna do with that information? Well, if hinting to them was your answer, you're right, because Bakermir seems to have done that SUPER obviously.

this is a good post, thank you.

I didn't even realize your question was directed at me. I thought it was for gikkle.

but anyway, I had you in my suspects because of 2 town pelts you got on your back. I also didn't like the nature of your push against SL

i am just less confident about you because of the bad results. you are not solely responsible for it but yeah, you were there

scumbots perspective is interesting, probably normal when I look at their questioning of things and the way they approach you. however, they seemed to have a different tone with ikarus all along.

a. they have played for an angle that seems quite odd for a villager to do
b. their blindspot for ikarus painted a target for DH

either/or

thats what I got from their ISO.

they are ok with ikarus all along but heavily skeptical of you, SL, innovation and pretty much everyone else

it gives me ideas

Note how despite me saying MM is responsible for killing Ikarus, Bakermir goes on a weird tangent about how Scumbot was responsible for Ikarus' death.

Bakermir says that Scumbot has "two town pelts", which seems to me to be a VERY direct hint to Scumbot saying "hey, I know you killed Ikarus!"

Bakermir goes on to come up with incredibly weird logic that somehow Bakermir having a "blind spot" for ikarus means that Scumbot was responsible for Ikarus' death, which is an INCREDIBLY bad look for bakermir, because it just looks like Bakermir was really trying to get scumbot to understand that Bakermir knew they killed Ikarus

Spoiler : Exhibit C: Backtracking & Renewed Mechanical Interest :

So what happens when a sorcerer finds out that they actually DIDN'T know the killer? And that the person they controlled was RIGHT about who killed Ikarus? They get confused, backtrack on their reads, and really focus on trying to find out mech. Which is exactly what Baker does.

@Gikkle

can you please clarify your role and night action please? I don't want to think about if you visited ikarus or something something

Problem is..

DH would never shoot at Gikkle. They would most likely shoot ikarus here since they did a good job at acting weird and hardclaiming citizen etc.

MM vig would never shoot Ikarus. There might be a world where they tried a hero shot on Gikkle though.

I also see another mechanical indicator; there is a good chance of MM being town but the problem is, I can't 100% confirm that world. I also don't find it beneficial talk more on it because bus driver and this role can actually stop another NK if they can find each other. I think seeing a vig without a gun/DH yeeted today is the best chance we have anyway

I don't think the bus driver should out because you guys can't see the hidden roles in the game atm and that creeps me out the most about Gikkle's posture

I kinda agree.

I am very confident in Corrupted Assessor targeting MM last night, as much as a bus driver targeted Gikkle.

I seriously don't believe DH targets Gikkle here.

In these posts, Baker does the following:

Backtracks on MM, now defending them
Backtracks on me, now shading me
Fishes for more information about mechanical information

Note that this behavior lines up perfectly with what I'd expect the Triad hidden to be doing. Baker is clearly confused about something that happened last night, and the reason for that is me lying. But Baker, confused, falls back onto simply defending MM and using vague mechanical implications (which are impossible for Baker to know btw. No way he knows MM was visited by the assessor unless he himself is the assessor), all the while preparing himself to have to fight a mechanical battle with me.

Ultimately, Baker has displayed EXACTLY the behavior I expect from a Triad Hidden - ESPECIALLY the sorcerer

[powerofdeath]

so what are you exactly gikkle?

[Gikkle]

Marshmallow Marshall is the Dragon Head
Bakermir is the Triad Hidden

the assessor is a bit more elusive, but Auwt is a fairly good candidate IMO.