S-FM 348: Standoff

[Loldebite]

Deb just didn't play D1 as a Town Scout tbh. Inexperience changes that from "outing" to "bad" but it's still a big concern for me that makes voting Death harder to justify than it should be.

Well SORRY...

[Wiml]

Whereas everything Death did do has been consistent with his claim (early D1 very mild invest soft, reaction to getting pushed) even if the actual claim itself was dreadful and extremely wolfy.

[Loldebite]

@deathworlds check out Kill Six Billion Demons, a nice webcomic, you might enjoy it

You all should be checking it out tbh, it's quite great

[Loldebite]

Whereas everything Death did do has been consistent with his claim (early D1 very mild invest soft, reaction to getting pushed) even if the actual claim itself was dreadful and extremely wolfy.

well he still claims a cit check on MM the 20% town, tho

[Wiml]

Miz, from your experiences with MM is he a more antagonistic wolf towards his partners?

You know, one who shades / busses his partners a lot in the thread?

That was my impression from the meta of his I've seen and would line up more with his treatment of Death here (a disingenuous-seeming push early into D1).

[Loldebite]

Also I must ask now, how tf was I supposed to play ? Try to get myself lynched ?

[Wiml]

@deathworlds check out Kill Six Billion Demons, a nice webcomic, you might enjoy it

You all should be checking it out tbh, it's quite great

Is this you pinging Death to quickhammer

[Wiml]

Because that reads like you pinging Death to quickhammer

[Wiml]

@Mizery

[Loldebite]

I can barely get myself town read so I really don't see how I EVER widely TR to the point where I'm a target for scum

[Loldebite]

EVER get* widely..

[Wiml]

well he still claims a cit check on MM the 20% town, tho

MM being Coward is realistic and part of why I'm considering voting there today.

[Loldebite]

Because that reads like you pinging Death to quickhammer

chill dude, there's no way we can

oh wait there's a scum chat, I guess we could

ffs

[Loldebite]

MM being Coward is realistic and part of why I'm considering voting there today.

Yeah I guess scum has to have SOME kind of PR, uh

[Loldebite]

sigh I'm logging off I'm tired of scoring own goals

[Wiml]

Also I must ask now, how tf was I supposed to play ? Try to get myself lynched ?

Nightkill.

You had a billion opportunities to PR claim so you could be nightkilled:
- Varcron's claim
- Your bucket mech post
- Miz pushing for bucket
- Death counterclaiming you in the thread

And you always took the no claiming approach besides EoD1 where you, inexplicably if town, only softed instead of outright ccing.

[Wiml]

chill dude, there's no way we can

oh wait there's a scum chat, I guess we could

ffs

Sorry but it was so out of nowhere and it reads like Death not responding in wolf chat so you're trying to get his attention in the thread.

[Wiml]

sigh I'm logging off I'm tired of scoring own goals

If you're town then this is honestly hilarious.

[Wiml]

I'll check out the webcomic though.

[Loldebite]

If you're town then this is honestly hilarious.

It's really not.

I'M SO BORED I keep saying stupid shit and then I stop and go read stuff and since dw recommended one to me I feel like throwing the lift back at him

Sigh

I really don't think I ever switch onto dw D1 if I'm scum btw

and now I'm logging off for real

until I'm so fucking bored again that I come back

sigh

[Wiml]

It's really not.

I'M SO BORED I keep saying stupid shit and then I stop and go read stuff and since dw recommended one to me I feel like throwing the lift back at him

Sigh

I really don't think I ever switch onto dw D1 if I'm scum btw

and now I'm logging off for real

until I'm so fucking bored again that I come back

sigh

Dw about it, stuff happens.

It was just very jarring and there was already the worry Death would come in to hammer.

[deathworlds]

Also the huge wtf moment where Death tells Varcron not to fire N1 as Chemist.

I'm giving Death the benefit of the doubt here because maybe he didn't know better but this is basically mech openwolfing and if this is something Death should know better than to do please make me aware.

At least we know why Varcron likely didn't poison now.

What?
I don't think i ever explicitly said that varcron or chemist should not use their abilities. I said tailor, bartender, and janitor should never use their abilities. There was some arguement regarding what exactly constituted as anti-town utility, but I don't think I said any role outside of those three should holster.

[Wiml]

You're probably right, with the chemist at least

Here.

[Wiml]

Death are you hammering?

[Wiml]

If you're not, can you explicitly confirm that please?

[deathworlds]

Hammer? The vote is both l-2 and I'm locked vs loldebite.

[Wiml]

Miz why did you leave this vote here lmao.

[deathworlds]

If you mean hammer later, I'm off shift at exactly end of day (fucking sucks).
I'm here for the next 18 minutes

[Wiml]

Hammer? The vote is both l-2 and I'm locked vs loldebite.

Yes but if you and Deb are partners the game is over.

Miz isn't here to retract so you can both vote and end the game.

[deathworlds]

Unless im missing something and the vote isn't 1 and 1 between me and loldebite??

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Guys....I'm Actually Light Yagami....

VADE RETRO, SATANAS!

lol.

I exist now and hopefully for a little while, trying to find out what happened with votes being placed

[Wiml]

Unless im missing something and the vote isn't 1 and 1 between me and loldebite??

There is a mech possibility that you/Deb are w/w.

Assuming you aren't based on your reaction though.

[Wiml]

I'm mech confirmed town anyway so it's always 1 in Deb/Death and 1 in Miz/MM mechanically if there's no hammer happening here.

[deathworlds]

Here.

Oh
Yeah you're right that was a bad call, not sure why I didn't stick to my guns

[deathworlds]

Anyways I'm off until eod, uhhh vote loldebite cause if we don't then scum might force a tie which they always win at lylo

[Wiml]

Your call Miz

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Spoiler : Wall :

so loldebite is scum, who is his partner.

loldebite/mizery
loldebite/mm
loldebite/vittae

better to start with speculation of the scum team.

Scum has a tailor, that's a fact, there's no mechanical reason that a tailor would not appear.
I'm going to run off of the assumption that Varcron was at least telling the truth about being TPR.

Deathworlds invest
ikarusdk flip chemist (likely not tailored)
Loldebite claims snitch appears as tailor
Marshmallow Marshall -claim cit, appear as cit
Mizery claims cit
powerofdeath flipped cit (not tailored)
Varcron flipped chemist (likely tailored)
Vittae claims cit

Role list is this

Patriots
Hidden Patriot - Invest (me)
Hidden Patriot - Chemist? (Varcron)
Hidden Patriot - Bartender (Ikar)
Citizen
Citizen
Citizen

Loyalists
Hidden Loyalist - Tailor
Hidden Loyalist - ????

What is the 2nd scum?

Assuming no one has lied about their feedback and fullclaimed all their feedback, we can cross out the following possibilities. Using these roles in some form or another would likely be optimal, to not use them would be so unlikely I'd consider it impossible.
Chemist
Electromaniac
Stagecoach
Janitor
Operator
These roles all leave very visible feedback, and as we haven't received any feedback from them, it's safe to assume they're not here.
That leaves these roles
Blacksmith
Physician
Tracker
Scout
Investigator
Bartender
Coward
Tailor

Blacksmith would have been able to use a gun and win the game at this point, they don't exist here.

Physician
Tracker
Scout
Investigator
Bartender
Coward
Tailor

Two tailors would be funny, but we have been given no reason to believe that both ikar and varcron have been tailored. Assuming a world where ikar was indeed scum (I find this so unlikely based on my d1 read of them), would it make any amount of sense to tailor your scum buddy? It could end up confusing town and making us act cautious for the next day, but the trick would be figured out once we passed the fake LYLO today.
Wait I actually realized this is impossible as fuck since ikar died at night, zero shot that scum killed their own buddy, that's throwing.
I'm disregarding a 2nd tailor, since scum doesn't really have the amount of mislynches to really utilize tailor to its fullest, anyone that scum kills at night is town, and town only has one mislynch available.

Physician
Tracker
Scout
Investigator
Bartender
Coward

There's been no cases of contradictory feedback so far (with the exception of ikar targeting MM), so I'm discounting bartender.

Physician
Tracker
Scout
Investigator
Coward

Scout is significantly weaker in the hands of mafia compared to the other options, mafia know who they are going to visit, all lookout accomplishes is having a chance on figuring out who a TPR is, but predicting that isn't the easiest thing in the world, and is weaker compared to either investigator (straight up tells them the role), or tracker (lets them discover if that target is a TPR)

Physician
Tracker
Investigator
Coward

scum sided doctor is such a foreign idea to me that it hardly computes, assuming varcrons flip is accurate, does the doctor even prevent the chemist from killing? By the wording of the feedback given and the wording of the role (preventing an attack) compared to chemists (poison a player) and the timing, it just doesn't work.

Tracker
Investigator
Coward

I think the last scum is any of these three.

Now as for who they could be.

There's a chance that loldebite is actually a coward, who hid onto varcron, and killed him in the same night, but from a scum perspective, what does this accomplish?
In what world does the coward hide onto their mafia buddy? I can't imagine a scenario right now where that would be benefitial, presumably, the coward would hide to avoid investigation, or negative effects. You don't want your buddy to be investigated, and you sure as shit don't want them to be poisoned or bartended or just night killed.
No, loldebite is exactly the tailor, there's no other option. so either
MM
Mizery
Vittae
are one of those three possible scum roles.

Loldebite/MM
Loldebite/Mizery
Loldebite/Vittae

I scanned MM as citizen, it's possible he is a coward and hid onto either mizery or vittae to appear as citizen.
I had a scum lean on mizery on day 1.
I had a strong town lean on vittae on day 1.

If I had to wager, it would be between MM and Mizery (also if vittae is scum then G frickin G)

If MM or Mizery are investigator or tracker, then my scan on MM was true and accurate.
If MM was exactly coward, then it is possible that my scan on MM was faked by him targeting mizery or vittae.
Coward only has two charges, in the world where MM was coward, one would have to have been used last night.
What are the odds that Coward!MM has any charges left? If I was scum, I'd like to use one of my two charges on night 1 to avoid any potential "random" negative effects in a setup this small and this short.
If I scan MM again tonight, there is a very high likelihood I can prove he is citizen or coward by comparing night results.
If Mizery is coward or investigator/tracker, then there is nothing she could have done to interfere with my night results, so once again, it can be likely proved by just scanning MM again.

But why wouldn't scum have investigative?
I still pretty firmly believe that scum has an investigative role and a non-janitor disruptive role, and I was at least proven half right with a tailor scan.

It's likely Loldebite/Mizery or Loldebite/MM, and loldebite/MM can only happen if MM is exactly coward, and if there is no scum aligned investigative role, which is so unlikely.

I'd wager on Loldebite/Mizery

This train of thought is very sensible/easy to follow, and I see no red flags upon reading/rereading; it feels like Deathworlds is really trying to solve the game, and I really like this post.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I'm going to ISO Debbie quickly enough to make sure I'm not going on a tangent atm. If you want me to address something, feel free to use pings in the meantime

[Wiml]

This train of thought is very sensible/easy to follow, and I see no red flags upon reading/rereading; it feels like Deathworlds is really trying to solve the game, and I really like this post.

Isn't the post you quoted 90% mech speculation and basically just NAI?

The 10% is saying I'm town which isn't anything new to anyone.

[Wiml]

Isn't the post you quoted 90% mech speculation and basically just NAI?

The 10% is saying I'm town which isn't anything new to anyone.

You can do your ISO first, it's not urgent.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Were already winning this game no need to play it so straight

Can't tell if having an aneurysm or trolling

Probably a bad sign

@Loldebite I had missed this post. What did you mean by this? I don't think you've reacted much/at all to my big attack on Mizery, in spite of it being clear and important enough as far as I can tell, and yet you're reacting strangely to the exact post that triggered my suspicion, so it'd be nice to clarify this.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Isn't the post you quoted 90% mech speculation and basically just NAI?

The 10% is saying I'm town which isn't anything new to anyone.

It's not just pure speculation for the sake of it (which is really what I didn't like during early D1, btw), it's applying logic using the information that we have (as opposed to just drawing conclusions out of thin air) to analyze the gamestate and draw conclusions on who can be scum with who - and the reasoning is very coherent and genuine. This kind of post is already hard enough to make as town, but it's even harder as scum, since you have to constantly fake a genuine uninformed point of view, and I don't see any of this in DW's post.

(LAMIST has nothing to do with my read, for the record, especially considering Deathworlds does that all the time as any alignment)

[Marshmallow Marshall]

MM, all of your reads are basically "pending"

Your townread on Varcron is because of a PR claim (which you say is pending mechanical info)
Your townread on Vittae is pending pretty much anything, claiming it's because he's experienced and charismatic (and calling everything he's done NAI basically)
lol is a semi-micro read based on a single post (with the disclaimer that it means nothing to you really)
Ikarus you find yourself unable to read despite, in my opinion and in others, him being pretty towny and having a lot to go on in general
Your read on me is just "(TMI?)" which is honestly the most decisive read in your list
Death is another single post read but piggybacking on the claim that mech info is useless and seemingly choosing to not get out of that tunnel or talk about his reads post recently.

Also, I should mention : as much as I want not to, I really like this post.

In continuity with my last post addressed to Debbie: the hell? Why in the world would you like THIS lol?


Regarding posts such as this one (there are a few of them):

Well, uh, thought your read on me had decayed already but I read back and I've no clue why I thought that.

Yeah no, something's off.

There's no way you've seen me at the far end of everyone's readslist and was content with putting me in the TR range for a mere mech post all the while saying "it ain't much, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯". Especially when your bottom read is based solely on another mech post and honestly the differences are not that great. Definitely not great enough that you can wave your hand and say "Nah all those 6 people are wrong, I can feel it !".

I don't know if I'm getting biased against Debbie right now, but while I felt like it could be towny paranoia back then, considering the multiple occurences of "paranoie" later on being openly stated as such by Debbie himself, I think it might actually have been awkwardly obvious self-consciousness that he used when I pointed it out to then look like a "genuinely confused" townie.

[Wiml]

It's not just pure speculation for the sake of it (which is really what I didn't like during early D1, btw), it's applying logic using the information that we have (as opposed to just drawing conclusions out of thin air) to analyze the gamestate and draw conclusions on who can be scum with who - and the reasoning is very coherent and genuine. This kind of post is already hard enough to make as town, but it's even harder as scum, since you have to constantly fake a genuine uninformed point of view, and I don't see any of this in DW's post.

(LAMIST has nothing to do with my read, for the record, especially considering Deathworlds does that all the time as any alignment)

But doesn't Death's post just:
- Get a list of potential scum PRs.
- Cross off the onviously impossible / nonsensical ones.
- Conclude that I'm town with no explanation.
- Use dubious scan mech to deduce that Miz is a wolf

There's not any solving in here nor is any of this mech remotely difficult for anybody to fake. I made much harder, more in detail mech posts in my first ever forum mafia wolf game (my 3rd forum mafia game over) and when I look at this post there's nothing that would require even a moderately experienced player with mech in order to make it.

Just seems like a very thin reason to give a player town points when we are less than 2 hours before EoD in F5.

[Mizery]

-vote marshmallow marshal

[Wiml]

-vote marshmallow marshal

Weren't you already there?

[Wiml]

Well, you're mech confirmed to be a difference check now at least.

[Wiml]

I'd like to see MM commit to a vote on Deb or Death ASAP.

[Wiml]

I'd like to see MM commit to a vote on Deb or Death ASAP.

@Marshmallow Marshall not to rush you but want time to think after you vote please.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

But doesn't Death's post just:
- Get a list of potential scum PRs.
- Cross off the onviously impossible / nonsensical ones.
- Conclude that I'm town with no explanation.
- Use dubious scan mech to deduce that Miz is a wolf

There's not any solving in here nor is any of this mech remotely difficult for anybody to fake. I made much harder, more in detail mech posts in my first ever forum mafia wolf game (my 3rd forum mafia game over) and when I look at this post there's nothing that would require even a moderately experienced player with mech in order to make it.

Just seems like a very thin reason to give a player town points when we are less than 2 hours before EoD in F5.

How is there "not any solving in there"? He is:
- analyzing the situation to conclude his feedback on Debbie was correct
- applying a similar logic for his scan on me
- going by elimination, getting to Mizery
- explaining all these steps as they come to him in his reflexion

That looks like solving to me, and I'm not sure I see what you're seeing. As for saying you're town, honestly, if you aren't, we have purely and simply already lost, and I accept losing to this world because you'd be a bloody good scum lol. The level of analysis, solving, train-of-thought-ing, etc. you've been maintaining since the start of the game is EXTREMELY pro-town and difficult to fake, and no interactions between you and Debbie/Deathworlds looked specially suspicious. I don't think saying you're town is exactly scandalous lol.
As for it not being difficult to fake, I guess you can just say "skill issue" lol, but I'd argue this is more about you, who clearly have a strong ability to analyze games with structured posts, than it is about the general "easiness" of the process. Is there something I'm not seeing?