S-FM 348: Standoff

[Wiml]

Can I ask @Marshmallow Marshall ?

Unless I am missing something, most of your posts in day 2 have been about Mizery and POD and replying about your actions.
Between loldebite, deathworld and myself, and since there is a wolf among us three, who do you suspect the most? Have you had time to think about it?

and @deathworlds

I'd like to hear about your thoughts on Mizery/MM/Vittae as well.

Since we're voting sleep, this should probably be saved for last wills / Day 3.

Don't want to give the mafia team too much info on whi to nightkill yet (you'll notice I haven't really shared a definitive alignment opinion on anybody yet besides Miz when she was getting pushed).

[Wiml]

It's not scum indicative. It is, however, typical of scum!MM. Maybe MM in general (don't know him all that well, reasonable doubt etc...) but I'd still say it is most typical of scum!MM. When have you seen scum-MM do similar before? How similar was it?

Well yeah, I firmly believed claiming was a positive for town because of my role, but only if we applied the bucket strat, and if I ever say anything more than I have (maybe I already said too much, actually) implying that I'm fine with PRs or myself dying, I'd risk making myself obvious enough that the positives disappear, Better to risk a claim and maybe get a benefit than to not risk a claim and not get any benefit regardless, though? and I wasn't confident in successfully pushing for it without outing myself. In retrospect I probably should've done exactly the same as varcron, I never seriously considered he could be chem and that's definitely a big mistake.

Yeah that's mb I forgot a very important detail : I was pushing for a no elim because I figured it'd be MUCH BETTER for town to miselim me AFTER I visit someone. That way town would've been in the exact same situation BUT with an extra open scan that can possibly confirm someone as town (which is what I was thinking was the best use possible at the time). So you thought you were so likely to be miselimned on D1 that you wanted to push for a no elim? Or did you want to get miselimned on purpose on D2? How does this fit into you saying you were a plausible nightkill if you also thought you were on the road to getting D1ed?

Pushing what read ? That you were bussing ? I don't think I ever pushed that read again, but if you can point me at what made you think so, I explain wtf went through my head. Or try. Can't find it on a quick skim so I'll leave this, might have misinterpreted something.

At that point, pretty much. The only one I was wary about in the train was DW... So why am I not voting DW ? This feels like the opposite of intuitive logic. If you're not voting where the mafia want to vote then doesn't that mean that you're likely going against their plans?



Yes, I didn't follow through with the reasoning all the way enough to realize that it meant the wagon on PoD was probably even less pure than I was starting to suspect, When did you get from thinking the wagon was pure besides DW to suspecting it wasn't? but I thought enough to realize that
1) PoD was getting votes easily ;
2) DW was not ;
3) DW immediately resorted to AtE when voted up.

Which all in all meant that DW was just scummier than PoD, by quite a margin. And with two wagons quite well defined, I was confident we'd be getting interesting info regardless (at a bare minimum, a list of "PoD trusters" and "DW doubters").

Bottom text

[ikarusdk]

@ikarusdk @Mizery @deathworlds

Do you think the D1 interactions between Deb and MM are unaligned on Deb's end cabe be w/w?

I don't really get what you are asking,

But her ISO reads like her frustration starts with POD's refusal/inability to play upto her standard, further ignited by my post about her writing resulting in snapping at MM and Mizery. If she was actively trying to isolate herself from her partner, it was very fluid, through a very fluid set of events.

[ikarusdk]

I don't really get what you are asking,

But her ISO reads like her frustration starts with POD's refusal/inability to play upto her standard, further ignited by my post about her writing resulting in snapping at MM and Mizery. If she was actively trying to isolate herself from her partner, it was very fluid, through a very fluid set of events.

Never mind, I got the question.

[ikarusdk]

@ikarusdk @Mizery @deathworlds

Do you think the D1 interactions between Deb and MM are unaligned on Deb's end cabe be w/w? My initial read on it was no, given Deb's inexperience as a wolf / with interacting and distancing from a partner and the frustration seeming to build up on Deb's earlier posts towards others and feeling genuine when they snapped at MM.

Given MM is low in the consensus PoE, I think this I a really important interaction to look into in more detail but it's definitely something I want a second opinion on.

Don't need to answer this question in the thread today, just check out that part of Deb's ISO?

Everyone is more experienced than I so I am going to assume everyone is capable of pulling something that seems unlikely, or doesn't seem to be the case. My initial reaction would've been no in day 1. But right now I think, yeah why not? There was a very convenient set of events that set loldebite off, and if it can make deb/MM an unlikely partner as a byproduct of the interactions, great!

After a few posts, loldebite and MM did go back and forth at each other.

Tbh I'm falling asleep on my keyboard so I should go away lol, but Mizery's "we're winning" is pinging me hard on the side of TMI. It's not like we have any particularly super promising leads at the moment, so I have doubts here, big doubts

Preliminary list of reads before sleep:

MM (duh)

Varcron (claim; there's nothing else for now, really, so he gets his own special category until we get into more mechanica stuff)

Vittae (seems skilled and relatively charismatic, and although they definetly have been trying to get things moving, this could easily be done as any alignment, so I remain vigilant even though they are towny)

Loldebite (solely because of the "what would scum claim" mech post, which isn't much, but which is something)

Ikarus (pending something to read him, more on this later)
POD (decaying into scum if nothing changes, but for now, he still has the benefit of the doubt)

Mizery (TMI?)
Deathworlds (still icky about the early mech post being performative-ish, nothing much said since then)

There's a good chance that MM is trying to pocket me. He's done that before.

I... Can't say I agree tbh. His readslist is basically "debbie wrote a wall in 4 minutes so he's scum" and "MM is scum because debbie is scum". It IS content, but I fail to see how that's impressive. None of the more recent posts felt particularly interesting either, except maybe the part about PoD and AtE.

This feels as much as a pocketing attempt as MM's comments about me tbh.

MM townread deb here then deb accused MM of trying to pocket her, and MM calling her paranoid. Actively trying to distance each other? Possible.

There is a good chance that if Lold flip scum, MM is their partner that is trying to derail/form a counterwagon to save their partner.

[ikarusdk]

But there were other stuff happening as well, so I can't answer you sand say yes or no

[Wiml]

Thanks for reminding me about the PoD legacy ika, will check it out later because I want to see what he thought he saw.

[ikarusdk]

I'm going to list vote history (I'm assuming this is allowed) and perhaps someone with a better mind can get something out of it because I think reviewing the voting pattern could reveal something to go along with important questions that have been asked here today. Instead of sorting them per player, I think it is better to sort them chronologically. I'm going to ignore the first couple of votes that meant nothing. I will also list vote count.

First meaningful pressure vote on the basis that despite the numerous posts, PoD's posts lacked in content and quality.

Hey folks, catching up with stuff now.

-vote powerofdeath

In response, PoD OMGUS vote on Vittae

-vote Vittae

I dont really see the reason for fosing me beside low amount of posts

1 - PoD 1- Vittae

Then PoD changes to lolbite

I am posting contents I feel like you're looking down on me for some reasons.

-vote Loldebite

1 - PoD 1 - loldebite

Loldebite votes Vittae because of "To be fair to PoD, I do believe them now when they said they're struggling to make reads"

They haven't said that. Not here, at least.

-vote Vittae

1 - PoD 1 - loldebite 1 - Vittae

Mizery's first vote after her read.

Mizery
ikarusdk
Vittae
Marshmallow Marshall

Deathworlds
Varcron
powerofdeath
Loldebite

-vote loldebite

1 - PoD 2 - loldebite 1 - Vittae

After a long post and reads, deathworlds first vote.

Spoiler : responses to all the post since I've had some nyquill :

okay yeah you know what, takes me a bit to get up and start actually reading the game, I don't do meta reads, so it takes me a while to build up enough evidence/gut for my reads.



Mass claim on d2 is probably the only way we win this game if we mislynch here.



yo letsgo, the first readslist of the game, not exactly thrilled to be near the bottom of your list.


I get why people hate on mech discussion, but that won't ever stop me from talking about it, also, I in general, agree with your position on Vittae here, strong opening, asking questions, generally pro-town.



Ikarus is a town read for me as well, for much of the same reasons, none of that "haha im totally not nervous to play some mafia right now" vibes you get from newer scum.




Ehhh memeing on entry isn't pro-town that's for sure, but personally, I wouldn't go so hard as to say it is damning either, closer to NAI than it is to a scum read imo.


I consider the whole thing as NAI, might be reading into it too much.



Hey now, there's a good shot that varcron is cit, or scum really.
If you think about it, useless town pr claim is a good claim for all allignments.
scum could be like: "oh hey, I'm a town power role! one of the few limited roles available, now a real town power will be forced to counterclaim in the event of mass claim and we can 1v1 in a one mislynched allowed setup, also, lookout/scout can suck it!"
citizen could be like: "Oh hey, I'm a town power role! Night kill me instead of a real town power role.
a powerful town power role could be like: "Hey, I'm a weak town power role, don't hit me scum!"
a useless tpr could be like: "Hey, I'm a useless tpr! (I am making this claim for WIFOM reasons )




I too am hoping for more content from pod.



yup.



scum makes up 1/4th of the entire population, if we can increase odds of a random lynch hitting scum by a significant enough margin (right now it's 20%), then i'd say it would be worth it.



loldebite, could you clarify what exactly you didn't like about MM's last post?



This is poor logic, citizens outnumber scum in almost every game, that doesn't mean we should let our power roles die every single game.



it is quite disappointing indeed, an increase of 20% up to like 33% (if I understood correctly based off of scum not both claiming tpr) is not particularly significant, nor an increase of odds I would like to out all the mechanical leverage we hold at night.



agreed.



mm seems to be quite contentious for people, appearing at the bottom of some peoples scum lists so far, and in the town lean areas as well.



You scum leaning pod right now makes me sad, mans just a bit rusty yeah? I'd hope he didn't roll scum because I'd like to play with him more.



You have all these town brownie points for me, but put me in the null slot?


I think varcron's claim is smart regardless of alignment, and therefor is NAI.



I think I understand what you're getting at right now, kinda lurky comments, being non-comitial in day chat.


Reminder, we are in the first 12ish hours of the game, some people need a bit of time to get the ball rolling, I in particular like to think I have a much stronger D2 than a D1.




Overall I like this list, I'm not so sure about putting pod in the very bottom and leaving me as a null at this stage of the game seems like a reasonable thing that you would do since you are not familiar with my d1 play.



I really don't get the hype around RVS, is it meant to try and catch scum via vote count analysis? wouldn't that be better done when there are actual wagons being formed?




Performative forsmorative, pro town behavior is pro town, and me tricking you into liking you as scum just because you happen to like walls is a skill issue, effort-posting is not alignment indicative.



Regardless of alignment it is everyone's jobs to try to at least appear town, so they aren't being focused on being the days elimination, not alignment indicative.



yup, wolf = scum = mafia = bad guys



Actually I made it after the game started, which is a rarity for me but I originally had plans around SoD so I didn't have time to setup a big setup analysis wall like I tend to do.



+1, I think objectively, debbie's mechanical talk is more pro-town than mine, solving the game =/= solving the setup.



I will defend you on this point today, but no longer than that, hope to see some scum hunting from you soon.



I'm still malding about the fact that my role-card that I created for that game didn't even get a chance to do anything.



Ehhhhhhhhh this seems like a stretch to me, especially considering what vittae pointed out just below.





Vittae isn't the lynch today, saying that now.



make better content then



and with that we have another reads list and a vote for loldebite.

Spoiler : A long post about his reads :

With everything in mind here is everyone's reads list as I saw them.

Mizery's:
Mizery
ikarusdk
Vittae

Marshmallow Marshall
Loldebite
powerofdeath

Deathworlds
Varcron

loldebite's:

Ikarusdk
Varcron
Vittae

PoD
deathworlds
mizery

MM

Vittae's:
ikarusdk

Varcron

Marshmallow Marshall*
Mizery*

Deathworlds (Null)

Loldebite
powerofdeath

Mizery's 2nd list
Mizery
ikarusdk
Vittae
Marshmallow Marshall

Deathworlds
Varcron
powerofdeath
Loldebite


Here's my list:
Deathworlds
Ikarusdk
Vittae

Varcron

PowerofDeath
MM

Mizery
Loldebite

Breakdown:
Deathworlds: I am town.
Ikarusdk: This mans gives me ceko first game town vibes, and I could read ceko pretty well back in the day, this is my strongest town read.
Vittae: Vittae is asking all the right questions, getting meta reads, prompting people, breaking down interactions, this is pro-town behavior.
Varcron: This revolves mostly around the claim he made, which while I think can be made by anyone of any alignment, I can see it more often than not, coming from a town perspective, especially as the first claim made. There is a shot we're being bamboozled so hard by an unprompted claim from scum, but I don't think that is the case here.
PoD: Mans hasn't made a lot of content yet, but I suspect mans is just rusty, and is trying to get the gears to turn again, I suspect town, but intentional lurking is always a possibility.
MM: MM has always been an enigma to me, and any attempts to read MM feel off, and I feel like he wraps all of his content in multiple layers of WIFOM that go over my head. I'll get a better feel for MM throughout the day, but this read I have the least confidence in.
Mizery: This is a scum lean pending a couple answered that I might have missed,
1.) Varcron and I are were at the bottom of your list near the start, but pod and loldebite flew right by us to be the new bottom, what makes you think pod and loldebite are more likely to be scum?
2.) What caused MM to go into your town reads?
Also in general it doesn't feel like your engaging too much with other players, responding such, you pumped out a couple of read lists but there's hardly any engagement from you to other players regarding game-related subjects.
Loldebite: their vote on vittae is goofy, and while publicly doing the math for a hypothetical d1 claim is "pro-town" if it doesn't help us or actually provide a plan then it's a nothingburger. Outside of that setup speculation, what else has been done from loldebite?
-sorry guys I missed SOD
-talk about old games
-ask about skips
-talk about how mafia don't get cits
-provide a read list with a lot of talk about "feeling"
-suggest that tpr are expendable in a hypothetical d1 claim world
-provide some responses to your reads list
-do math
-talk about math more
-talk about MM's meta (also wtf I totally see MM as a powerwolfer)
-provide games for meta reading
-say something was funny
-wow an actual post talking about interactions between different players, crazy!!!
-poke at PoD's inactivity
-say ika might be faking their obv genuine reactions
-get confused by a vote from pod
-jump out at a very choice misread of vittae's post.

I'm not really buying that loldebite is town right now.

-vote loldebite

1 - PoD 3 - loldebite 1 - Vittae

Loldebite retracts her vote on Vittae

I didn't really buy it either but figured it'd be a prompt for interesting discussions - a kind of gambit I guess ?

-vote unvote

1 - PoD 3 - loldebite

After my post about '4min post' and back and forth interaction between MM and loldebite, MM places a pressure vote on PoD

oh nevermind my last question to you lol

Ikarus, am I correct in my understanding that you are scumreading me because you think I'm wrong on Debbie? Also, what are your thoughts on the post I quoted from him, considering it basically answers your concern?

~~

Reading POD's posts, I remain unimpressed, but also feel like he's just being "the nice guy", remembering good memories about the site or something like that. That is not alignment indicative in itself, but it becomes scummy if it lasts too long without more elaborate content (considering his pushes, questions, etc. have been strictly defensive and borderline OMGUS-y so far, with a shallow "liking" of Vittae's reaction to his vote that isn't backed up by any other post in his ISO). Considering this, I am placing a pressure vote. I don't think we should lynch him just yet, but definetly think he is a little too comfortable with one vote on him.

-vote powerofdeath

2 - PoD 3 - loldebite

After a series of back and forth with PoD and defending loldebite, MM votes on Mizery because alleged TMI

-

Spoiler : MM's reads and about Mizery's TMI :

My townread on Varcron is pending mechanical confirmation, which shouldn't exactly be a surprise - he is nonetheless my top town read and that was very clear.

- Your take on my Vittae read is actually the only correct one in this post: I have zero confidence in reading this kind of experienced, high effort players on D1 when they make no brilliant moves or terrible blunders. This one is DEFINETLY pending actually AI stuff.

- Yes, loldebite is a micro-read with little strength (but still with SOME strength, which is why he is not in nulls, but in a town lean category that's right next to the nulls)... and? This feels like a gratuitous discredit with basically nothing around it.

- I didn't say I was unable to read Ikarus, but rather that I'm waiting on a reply from him to read him. The question I asked him is literally two posts away from the one you quoted. Also, you just said "you said you weren't townreading him despite him being towny, ????!?"... which, once again, really is just a discredit without content

- Uuuuh, that's all you have to say about your weird "we're winning"? I refuse to let it be dismissed as nothing at all without even an explanation.

- You're acting like it's the middle of day 3 and everyone has novels to read people on, while you aren't even doing that yourself for the very good reason that it's not possible yet: your post is literally post #252. The level of certainty you are showing here does not match that of your posts that feature actual reads, and it definetly doesn't match the state of the game right now - which strengthens my TMI suspicions.

Overall, this is a very dishonest post with a lot of misrepresentations (or partial representations, let's say) and a whole lot of red paint; it's literally a big discredit ball thrown at me without even an actual conclusion to it, it's just pointing at things to make them look bad when they actually aren't. There isn't a hint of genuine solviness in there.

-vote Mizery

1 - PoD 3 - loldebite 1 - Mizery

MM changes vote to PoD

...actually, LYLO is literally tomorrow if we mislynch today

-vote powerofdeath

My scumread on Mizery still stands and is actually stronger now, assuming POD flips scum

2 - PoD 3 - loldebite

After back and forth with MM again, PoD votes MM.

Again with "mislynch".

it's almost like you know I am a mislynch. I feel like this is a hard slip by MM.

-vote Marshmallow Marshall

2 - PoD 2 - loldebite 1 - MM

After a long time of discussions Mizery votes MM

-vote marshmallowmarshal

2 - PoD 1 - loldebite 2 - MM

Vittae changes his vote from PoD to deathworlds

-vote Deathworlds

I think this is a hit actually.

1 - PoD 1 - loldebite 2 - MM 1 - deathworlds

deathworlds changes his vote from deb to Mizery

Screw you vittae, I'm not scum.

-vote Mizery

I'm voting between any of miz, loldebite, and pod, I refuse to be the lynch today

1 - PoD 2 - MM 1 - deathworlds 1 - Mizery

Varcron puts his first vote on Mizery

-vote Mizery

This lynch benefits the town the most imo

I will not be here for EOD, as I have an appointment I need to go to. GL all, that's where my vote will stay.

1 - PoD 2 - MM 1 - deathworlds 2 - Mizery

Mizery stands by her vote on MM

-vote marshmallow marshall

1 - PoD 2 - MM 1 - deathworlds 2 - Mizery

After waking up and after quick review of comments I put my first vote PoD based on how I felt about the player

-vote powerfodeath

2 - PoD 2 - MM 1 - deathworlds 2 - Mizery

Mizery changes her vote from MM to deathworlds

What a boring vc

-vote deathworlds

2 - PoD 1 - MM 2 - deathworlds 2 - Mizery

In a 3 way tie, PoD changes his vote from MM to deathworlds

deathworlds is one of my null read. I am not hanging Mizery

So like, I'm forced to switch to survive here.

-vote deathworlds

2 - PoD 3 - deathworlds 2 - Mizery

In response, deathworlds changes his vote from Mizery to PoD

-vote PowerofDeath

I'm sorry ma he was my dog I'll do it.
I'm not going to be mislynched today

3 - PoD 3 - deathworlds 1 - Mizery

In a 2 way tie, loldebite put her vote to PoD

-vote powerofdeath

I guess I should land a vote somewhere

4 - PoD 3 - deathworlds 1 - Mizery

loldebite changes her vote after a while to deathworlds

-vote Deathworlds

one man CFD let's go

3 - PoD 4 - deathworlds 1 - Mizery

Mizery changes her vote from deathworlds to MM, resulting in a tie till EoD.

-vote marshmallow marshall

3 - PoD 3 - deathworlds 1 - Mizery 1 - MM

[ikarusdk]

oh GREAT I forgot to put spoiler to the whole post
My bad people

[ikarusdk]

I meant to 'preview post' to make it neat and tidy....

[ikarusdk]

could get some pairing and anti pairing info here but I need to sleep now so I hope it's of some use....but if not, well at least I enjoyed summing that up.

[ikarusdk]

ngl, just reviewing voting patterns on a surface level gives off higher possibility of deathworlds/mizery w/w pairing, rather than loldebite/MM, deathworld/MM.
MM/Mizery cannot be in w/w, neither can loldebite/deathworld, MM/Vittae, Vittae/Mizery

[Wiml]

@ikarusdk did you make a last will last night?

[Wiml]

I appreciate having a vote history even if there's not a tonne I can infer from it rn.

[Wiml]

Alright, here we goooooooooOOOO!!!

Spoiler : The Greatest Wall of China (self-analysis post) :

(The "tradition" refers to the fact Varcron constantly gets lynched D1, to the point it became a running gag on the site; this is half a joke and half a way to draw potential reactions, either from Varcron himself or from people who would question my vote, but we ended up going entirely elsewhere)

First posts, trying to get the game going through RVS, which I believe is the best way to gather information early on; sometimes, you get immediate information, but basically all the time, you can come back to the early D1 interactions generated by RVS using the information from later flips and make a lot of sense from it. I know I've solved games that way before, even though I don't remember the games themselves lmao.

Unfortunately, basically noone wanted to get into RVS. Vittae seemed to say "we should make things progress" without actually doing anything to make things progress, which was striking me as performative/"look at me, I'm being proactive!", so basically suspicious. Hence the questions, which I actually expected to be poorly answered by Vittae at that point, so I was getting ready to charge and apply pressure:

Their reply was quite satisfactory, though (explaining their stance with the site, also explaining that they tend to be a high poster and that they're restraining themselves), and opened the way to meaningful discussion with a question about Mizery's opening post ("thank god I thought I was going to rand wolf again"). I liked where it was going and thought that if the "high poster" part were true, it would show soon enough, and that if it weren't, it would also be obvious and easy enough to realize.

Then came Deathworlds' setup speculation, which looked very big for very little actual content in the middle of page 1. I have historically had issues with reading people who make long, logical, analytic posts, because they tend to be coherent and I used to associate coherence/truth with town way too much, so I'm constantly wary of wall posters. I think I even vaguely remember getting fooled by Deathworlds himself that way, so I was pretty pinged by his speculation post; apart from the public service announcement of not using anti-town power abilities as town, it was more or less a "nothingburger", to use his own favorite expression. Hence I questioned him, got the not exactly satisfying answer "I like setup speculation, it's fun, and now is the time to get into it", so since I was getting nothing of note, I just put him in my scum lean mind category and went to question Ikarus, since he said he had enjoyed reading Deathworlds' post.

Ikarus' statement, now that I think about it, was pretty spontaneous and genuine-looking, and I quite like it now; but back then, I was mostly interested in a potential association with Deathworlds, so I was in a "is he scum" mindset rather than in an objective observation mindset, I guess. Then Loldebite posted a mech post themselves, but in a way that felt more useful (there was actual talk about what we should or shouldn't do regarding claims, it was more game-related rather than just "in the air"), so I asked Ikarus what he thought of it compared to Deathworlds', Here, it feels like the extent of your reads on both Death and Deb come down to how useful you found their initial mech post, then? What is the deeper logic here besides "town make useful posts, mafia make less useful posts"? Why wouldn't mafia want to make useful-looking posts to get townreads?and that's when it seems Loldebite began being suspected by many, including Ikarus of course, for reasons I frankly could not understand (hence my later questioning of PoD when he hard pushed him).

Ikarus' point itself was understandable and convincing at first, though: Loldebite's big post had indeed appeared 4 minutes after his last post, which was impossible to have thought and typed immediatly. It turned out Debbie had said he was working on a post, though, so there was in the end nothing suspicious, and I was left with pretty much nothing. I started feeling like Ikarus was town due to the way he seemed to be reading people (thinks people are wrong = thinks they're scum Why did you believe that this be >rand town and not just as likely mafia looking for a low effort way to make scumreads on villagers for making NAI mistakes?, which is what I believe he applied to scumread Loldebite, even though I'm actually still not sure), but waited on a reply from him about his reasons for scumreading Debbie before committing to my read. I think that reply never actually came, but other things (namely POD and Mizery) took my attention, so I kinda forgot about it and remained with my vaguely good impression of Ikarus (which, now that I re-read the situation, seems to make sense).

Between the questions to Ikarus, I had been checking POD's ISO, Why was PoD your choice of player to ISO at this point on time, or were you doing several? since I felt like he had said basically nothing noteworthy in spite of him having like 4x my post count at the time (I remember checking postcounts and seeing me having 13 posts when he had 50 or so). Reading his ISO more closely, I found his posts were basically all either useless or entirely self-related (as in, they were all pertaining to someone who had said something about him, in a very defensive manner), so I decided to pressure him and basically try to lead town!him to becoming useful or to lead scum!him to outing himself by being unable to generate anything genuine-looking. It was especially useful in my mind since he was pretty much unattacked (not seriously, at least) at that point in the game, so there was new info to get here. Since he was hellbent on remaining hyperdefensive and strictly refused to address things that weren't just about immediatly defending himself (I had asked him about his read on Mizery, both in order to get him to speak up on something that wasn't directly related to himself and to evaluate the possibility of a POD/Mizery scum pairing, since I was also scumreading Mizery), I concluded he was absolutely not trying to "unrust" himself and his scumdar like a rusty townie would, and that he rather was just an awkward wolf who didn't know how to interact and thus froze on anything that wasn't strictly about himself. (I also remember Vittae expressed a very similar reasoning at some point in D1Yep, very similar thought process to what you described here., and I had a big mindmeld feeling that made me quite significantly townread them, whereas I had been careful not to townread them too quickly for being logical/useful before.) The fact I scumread Mizery at that time also boosted my confidence in my POD scumread, since it REALLY seemed (and honestly still seems when I reread it) that he was purely and simply refusing to interact with her in any way, as if he were afraid of outing her:

From that point onwards (or rather, from the point where POD failed to answer the question that was colored in red), I was pretty much sold on a scum!POD, and was confident in my POD/Mizery theory. There were times during D1 where you were using the argument that PoD shouldn't be left alive until LYLO. How much of your push on him was due to wanting him resolved regardless of his alignment? Did this change at all over time since your initial vote?

[Going back in time a bit] About Mizery herself, nothing had really caught my attention, since she was just acting like her own relatively lighthearted NAI self, until this:

It starkly contrasted with 1) Mizery's own previous posts, which didn't contain any magic super confident solves that could explain this level of confidence and 2) my own feeling about the gamestate, considering I definetly hadn't anything confident yet (this was before I heavily scumread POD, I was just beginning to pressure him at the time and didn't know it would lead where it did), at least not enough to be anywhere close to saying we were winning. I then thought Mizery had TMI (and upon reread, I have the exact same feeling, and the knowledge of how EOD went only amplifies it tbh), and sensed a dissonance between the level of confidence in her previous posts Any specific ones? and the level of confidence this post showed. This snowballed with Mizery's "all your reads are pending" post in which she basically discredited me without drawing any conclusions, which was really just throwing shade; plus, the confidence level it implied once again felt really weird. She never really addressed this, so this feeling basically continued until the mess that was EOD, POD's flip and then Varcron's death threw me into a bit of a confusion Were you not expecting the Varcron death? - and rereading D1 rekindled my suspicions against her about the confidence level dissonance, btw, although it's weaker than it used to be due to POD's flip. Might be worth looking into further, but I digress. At the time, my suspicions on Mizery and POD were intertwined, mostly due to POD's behavior and especially to his complete refusal to address Mizery.

OKAY that was longer than I expected lol, and I should eat now. Going back to D1 made me draw two conclusions:
- I still suspect Mizery, and shouldn't forget about her What is your primary theory as to why Mizery as scum would unvote Death at EoD1? Especially if you think that Mizery can be scum in worlds where Death is town. What benefit could she have seen in those worlds to not commit to flipping town-invest-Death after already saying that I should have the final vote and laying accountability firmly on me for choosing who died,
meaning she could have almost completely gotten away with her vote on Death? And if she's mafia do you, as somebody who has been her mafia partner before, believe that she places a bus vote on a potential wolf-Death that tips them over into being a competitive wagon (Death was getting no traction and I was about to switch away) but then for some reason unvote at the last minute as Death's partner to let it rand and get no bus cred instead of just swapping to PoD or sticking to the push on Death? I think this is a case of the principle "if a player does one thing, just one single thing that shows they cannot ever reasonably be mafia then that player is town even if the rest of their posts are the scummiest posts you have ever seen" and I'm interested in your take on why that one thing doesn't, in fact, make it extremely unlikely for Mizery to be mafia (assuming she didn't gamethrow which I am taking as a given as I know Miz well enough to be confident she wouldn't).
- POD's lynch was basically inevitable and "deserved", without wanting to be rude; knowing he was town, reading his posts feels really weird, because that means he was misplaying so hard as a non-noob

You better actually read it lmao

Responses in purple!

[Wiml]

Will respond to ika later.

[Loldebite]

Bottom text

It's not scum indicative. It is, however, typical of scum!MM. Maybe MM in general (don't know him all that well, reasonable doubt etc...) but I'd still say it is most typical of scum!MM. When have you seen scum-MM do similar before? How similar was it?

I'm almost certain he's done similar stuff in OUaTitW, my first game.

Better to risk a claim and maybe get a benefit than to not risk a claim and not get any benefit regardless, though?

Well, yeah, but I saw being lynched as the "mf that tried to out our PRs" as a likely outcome if I tried, so I figured that it was best not to. Especially since I considered us likely to skip the first night, to have more info before the killing starts.

So you thought you were so likely to be miselimned on D1 that you wanted to push for a no elim? Or did you want to get miselimned on purpose on D2? How does this fit into you saying you were a plausible nightkill if you also thought you were on the road to getting D1ed?

None of those, I didn't think it was that likely I just thought that me being a miselim after I visited someone would be quite a soft blow for town when compared to a regular miselim, so I figured that if I was to get mislynched, then I'd rather get that happen on D2, which also lets me the option to get night killed if the tables turn. I also thought D1 was a similar situation to what we are in now, and thought that waiting for more info before lynching was reasonable. At EoD I thought I was a plausible NK, not so before DW claimed.

At that point, pretty much. The only one I was wary about in the train was DW... So why am I not voting DW ? This feels like the opposite of intuitive logic. If you're not voting where the mafia want to vote then doesn't that mean that you're likely going against their plans?

Well... Yes, that's my point. Oh I see what you mean, duh. I think several successive thought processes got mixed up. The "why am I not voting DW" is actually what I wrote at the time, so I guess I was still seriously considering the fact that PoD was getting bussed and that it didn't make sense, thus that DW was a better vote.

When did you get from thinking the wagon was pure besides DW to suspecting it wasn't?

Not before D2

[Loldebite]

Everyone is more experienced than I so I am going to assume everyone is capable of pulling something that seems unlikely, or doesn't seem to be the case. My initial reaction would've been no in day 1. But right now I think, yeah why not? There was a very convenient set of events that set loldebite off, and if it can make deb/MM an unlikely partner as a byproduct of the interactions, great!

After a few posts, loldebite and MM did go back and forth at each other.








MM townread deb here then deb accused MM of trying to pocket her, and MM calling her paranoid. Actively trying to distance each other? Possible.

Not sure I understand what you mean by convenient here, but interesting opinion

[Loldebite]

Thanks for reminding me about the PoD legacy ika, will check it out later because I want to see what he thought he saw.

Friendly reminder that PoD's legacy is : lynch MM.

[Loldebite]

Spoiler : vote history :

I'm going to list vote history (I'm assuming this is allowed) and perhaps someone with a better mind can get something out of it because I think reviewing the voting pattern could reveal something to go along with important questions that have been asked here today. Instead of sorting them per player, I think it is better to sort them chronologically. I'm going to ignore the first couple of votes that meant nothing. I will also list vote count.

First meaningful pressure vote on the basis that despite the numerous posts, PoD's posts lacked in content and quality.


In response, PoD OMGUS vote on Vittae


1 - PoD 1- Vittae

Then PoD changes to lolbite


1 - PoD 1 - loldebite

Loldebite votes Vittae because of "To be fair to PoD, I do believe them now when they said they're struggling to make reads"


1 - PoD 1 - loldebite 1 - Vittae

Mizery's first vote after her read.


1 - PoD 2 - loldebite 1 - Vittae

After a long post and reads, deathworlds first vote.


1 - PoD 3 - loldebite 1 - Vittae

Loldebite retracts her vote on Vittae


1 - PoD 3 - loldebite

After my post about '4min post' and back and forth interaction between MM and loldebite, MM places a pressure vote on PoD


2 - PoD 3 - loldebite

After a series of back and forth with PoD and defending loldebite, MM votes on Mizery because alleged TMI


1 - PoD 3 - loldebite 1 - Mizery

MM changes vote to PoD


2 - PoD 3 - loldebite

After back and forth with MM again, PoD votes MM.


2 - PoD 2 - loldebite 1 - MM

After a long time of discussions Mizery votes MM


2 - PoD 1 - loldebite 2 - MM

Vittae changes his vote from PoD to deathworlds


1 - PoD 1 - loldebite 2 - MM 1 - deathworlds

deathworlds changes his vote from deb to Mizery


1 - PoD 2 - MM 1 - deathworlds 1 - Mizery

Varcron puts his first vote on Mizery


1 - PoD 2 - MM 1 - deathworlds 2 - Mizery

Mizery stands by her vote on MM


1 - PoD 2 - MM 1 - deathworlds 2 - Mizery

After waking up and after quick review of comments I put my first vote PoD based on how I felt about the player


2 - PoD 2 - MM 1 - deathworlds 2 - Mizery

Mizery changes her vote from MM to deathworlds


2 - PoD 1 - MM 2 - deathworlds 2 - Mizery

In a 3 way tie, PoD changes his vote from MM to deathworlds


2 - PoD 3 - deathworlds 2 - Mizery

In response, deathworlds changes his vote from Mizery to PoD


3 - PoD 3 - deathworlds 1 - Mizery

In a 2 way tie, loldebite put her vote to PoD


4 - PoD 3 - deathworlds 1 - Mizery

loldebite changes her vote after a while to deathworlds


3 - PoD 4 - deathworlds 1 - Mizery

Mizery changes her vote from deathworlds to MM, resulting in a tie till EoD.


3 - PoD 3 - deathworlds 1 - Mizery 1 - MM

Holy shit you're courageous, I don't think I ever did that myself, thanks a bunch

[Loldebite]

You're tailor bro, if varcron claimed to be anti-utility, then why wouldn't you thunderdome him?

Wait, why did you say claim again ?

[Loldebite]

Ohhh well that might explain dw's behaviour tbh

Varcron if you did this, ily

inb4 they have a coach & swapped me & dw and dw is tailor but varcron tried to kill me
that'd be hilarious

[Loldebite]

Deb what have you done this game that you as a wolf either could never possibly replicate or would never willingly choose to do (eg your points on why I wouldn't choose to bus DW and my points on Mizery's EoD1)?

Here's the first batch of 'em. I'm not sure there'll be others but I just remembered that EoD is less than 8h away so I should definitely go a little bit faster.

Spoiler : What have I done that I wouldn't have done as scum :

Which brings me to my point : should we make citizens claim to clear out PoE ? I know, I know, it is lame and cringe...
So, should we be doing it ?

I most definitely wouldn't have phrased it that way if I wasn't snitch, I probably would've advocated for TPR claims. In fact, now that I pay closer attention to it, the phrasing here was because I hadn't thought of bucket claiming just yet (or not in those terms) and wanted to avoid PR claiming, because I didn't want to reveal my role, so I figured citizens could claim instead, which is the functionally exactly the same as bucket claiming.

On another note, since you (Vittæ) and I seem to be the only ones online and active now that mizery's gone, feel free to engage me about whatever.

To help jumpstart that, here's a rushed fresh out of bed readslist :

cute people (T leaning)

Ikarusdk (seems genuinely eager to engage in actual discussion to me or much better at pretending than I'd expect, and also cute posts)
Varcron (Pretty good feeling about the interaction with deathworlds, above vittae for now because I know them a very tiny bit better)
Vittae (Good feeling about the slot, I sense cute vibes. Yeah that might be irrational, sue me)

boringly ordinary (odds are that idk how to read these but I'll pretend for now)

PoD (Not much to think about but I get the tiniest of cute vibes and )
deathworlds (I agree that the mech is NAI, and nothing felt especially good or especially bad)
mizery (I don't believe in judging off openings anyway, reads list is nice but honestly I'm pretty sure she would've done as much as any alignment)

uglies (S leaning)

MM (I very much dislike their last post to date. Sorting roles in utility buckets alone is worth doing, had I done that in my first game ever I would've seen you were scum much faster

I'm not quite sure I would've been in the mood to theme my readslist that way (cute/ugly) if I had randed scum, but I guess I might've. Actually I probably could've, scratch that.

If you think I spare games I signup for any time before it's actually started, you're off the wrong piste.
There's a reason I can't come up with roles for KRCs, and it's because I don't do that.

Yeah, 4 minutes, unless I was already working on it in that last post ? But I would've said so... mhhh



Oh. Oopsie !

I'm not sure I would've shut ika down that brusquely if I was scum, but again, I might've. Regarding pairings, I think would be more likely to do it that way if I'm paired with them.

FOR FUCKS SAKE CAN YOU READ THE GAME BEFORE POSTING STUPID SHIT ?

My LITERAL LAST POST was answering that question already

There I think I likely wouldn't have been that aggressive if I'm paired with them, UNLESS it comes off unprompted or spontaneously without any context provided in scum chat (I once got very mad at a fellow scummate IRL, but since it was IRL mafia there was no way for him to explain his reasoning), even though I get angry a lot less than I did back then, I think the additional frustration of the fact that I could've been forwarned or something might be enough to get me angry enough. Unlikely set of circumstances, tho. Oh, especially since that was writen as I was catching up in the morning.

This is EXACTLY the kind of plausible shit spreading that you do as scum lol

I might've omitted that part of brought it up only later if I was scum mate with MM. If I'm scum and not him I'd still mention it.

Well, uh, thought your read on me had decayed already but I read back and I've no clue why I thought that.

Yeah no, something's off.

There's no way you've seen me at the far end of everyone's readslist and was content with putting me in the TR range for a mere mech post all the while saying "it ain't much, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯". Especially when your bottom read is based solely on another mech post and honestly the differences are not that great. Definitely not great enough that you can wave your hand and say "Nah all those 6 people are wrong, I can feel it !".

I think if I was scum here, there's no way I don't think & mention TMI if I post that.

He's lying lol

Should've insta claimed, I knew it. I made it clear from my reaction that I didn't believe his claim bc of my role.
No point rushing things now I haven't even caught up there's like 5 messages new posted when I post one

Here I think the only way I don't panic if I'm scum is if I'm scum alongside DW

Wait you were SERIOUS ?

lmfao no way

Same here, I either would've taken more time or wouldn't have left it at that I think

[Loldebite]

Tbh I wonder how anyone arguing otherwise would explain me switching to DW yesterday

That's not something I would've said if I was scum unless DW is one too.

I didn't have it in me to review individually my self ISO.

Somehow, I hadn't thought about trying to find my own tells, very interesting experience.

[Loldebite]

Your chocolate cupcakes rival hostess in a way no one else can compete

Found that back and still have no clue wtf was this about. I even tried all possible caesar cyphers, just in case lol

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Responses in purple!

I'll just respond right in here because quoting a post makes the quotes within it disappear lol, so it's gonna be hard to do something similar to what you did. The responses are in the same orders as your questions.

Spoiler : Reply :

About the early mech posts: I am not reading them based on their usefulness, but rather on the intent behind them. A long, early mech post that contains useful information about what we should do and that indicates the player wants to take the day into their own hands is generally good (or at the very least not scummy, since I perfectly realize it's easy enough to actually be pro-town as scum by doing this). Conversely, a long, early mech post that really just... says things without the solving aspect is bad, because when you think about it, there is zero reason for town to put effort into something like that when it gives town nothing; hence, my read of the intent is that it's meant to look towny more than to be pro-town. I am aware it isn't a rock-hard argument lol and I don't necessarily give it tremendous weight now, but in the first half of D1, it was the most AI thing I could see - hence my not so amazing confidence at that point.


About Ikarus' "wrong = scum" mindset being towny: He's relatively new to FM (and I dare say his prior experience in the SC2 arcade doesn't really count here, since it's so different), and he puts in A LOT of effort for games. The scum behavior you're talking about would fit an old player who doesn't see the magic in the game anymore and just plays lazily, sometimes lurks, etc. (I've seen such people on other sites). Plus, "wrong = scum" is a common new player misconception about scumhunting, one that I had myself when I first played. To be honest, I hadn't even seriously considered the option you're talking about, because I felt like the situation it would apply to is so alien to the one Ikarus is in that it becomes irrelevant. It becomes even more true considering it would have been damn ineffective lol.


Why I ISO'd POD early on: Someone, I think it was Varcron, said in their reads list that I was "absent", basically that I had no posts and that they couldn't read me based on that. I thought "hey, that's not true lol" at first, and decided to go check the post count (which is done by going in the section (ongoing forum mafia games), and then clicking the little number indicated by "Posts:"). There, I saw that I indeed had only 13 posts, so I thought it might be fair for someone who may have overlooked some to say they just can't read me yet. Then, I noticed POD was super high on the list (I think he actually was the 2nd top poster, probably the first being you, Vittae), but that I literally could not remember any of their posts; plus, it was tempting to ISO him there, because the link to the post count page includes easy links to ISOs xD.


About needing POD resolved: I strongly believed POD to be scum for the rest of D1; the fact he needed to be resolved before we couldn't take risks anymore only sealed his fate in my mind. The only small moment of doubt I had is when Deathworlds just voted him out of the blue with like 10 minutes left to the day, which made me evaluate his vote using the votecount, but I then realized he was just purely forced to self-pres (I hadn't realized how much pressure he was under at that point and wouldn't have thought he would end up tied for lynch), so my doubt was dispelled.


Earlier posts that contrasted with Mizery's sudden confidence:

First impressions

Mizery
ikarusdk
Vittae

Marshmallow Marshall
Loldebite
powerofdeath

Deathworlds
Varcron



Vittae had a good opening that didn't involve a lot of mech discussion, something that is less likely for wolves to do in a semi-closed setup where talking about mech is 10% distraction, 20% fluff 15% wolves not wanting useful things to discuss, 50% helpful and 50% lame but 100% a possibility from both sides of the game

Ikarus in general is very pure and i wouldn't touch, especially one of his posts [insert post here] which was uberpure and towny of him.

Don't have a read on MM so far but Vittae has him as a gth townread rn it seems based on entry so I'll go with it because I can have a hard time seeing people who meme on entry and whatnot as Woflier than i probably should most of the time.

Based on their interactions the two wolves are likely not varcron/deathworlds and varcon's carelessness about how he is percieved in rambling about another game is slightly towny but not wanting to discuss it further if it's truly a good memory he wants to revisit makes it an option that he's trying to not get suspicion from being too far off topic

I'm not going to go into deathworlds much because my main suspicions come from his lack of content so far beyond mech discussion, and trying to boost varcron as a PR by saying the "i know what you're doing right now" as if other people aren't and wouldn't notice the callback, implying he wanted to make a point in thread to reference in the future when people ask him why he's not a wolf. He was also in thread when Ikarus posted the townread on him and despite interacting with other posts he ignores that one.

Power is solidly null with no content leaning wolfy from post in thread being disengaged and really only interacting with deathworlds about how long their break was which could imply more likely not w with death but easily fakeable and easy to turn my read around here if i feel the need.

If I sum up the reads in there: Vittae opening without mech (not terribly great), Ikarus pure (this is pretty much the only hint of confidence I see in there), MM is gth townread by Vittae so I guess he's fine (literally just a temporary sheep, 0 confidence, + doubt), says her two wolfreads are likely not W/W (basically the opposite of confidence lol), pending wolfread on Deathworlds (it's pending further posts basically), null on POD (its a nullread). Note that this is exactly the kind of reads I expected from someone at the early stages of the game; this felt genuine enough, even though it wasn't terribly hard to fake at all.

This is basically the post that gave me an idea of Mizery's prior confidence, considering the rest of what she said was entirely unmemorable to me/just fluff/off-topic that didn't tell me much (I'm looking at her ISO right now and realize there literally was a bunch of thin air between this and the post that triggered my suspicion lol). Then comes:

Come ONNNN guys ur no fun

Were already winning this game no need to play it so straight

If you want to see the progression (or lack thereof, actually), you may just go look at her early D1 ISO by yourself, it speaks for itself.


Expecting Varcron's death: Absolutely not lmao. I was pretty sure you were going to die, Vittae, because you were/are the de facto town leader and were towny (although I guess my townread on you at that point was based for a significant part on the mindmeld regarding POD), whereas he was basically a silent background player; sure, he had a towny claim, but it was still not confirmed at all, and the fact he was basically sleeping on it after getting some townreads made me have some background doubts.


On Mizery's last second vote at EOD: Mizery seems to have somehow started to feel like POD was getting towny towards EOD (which I still fail to see, btw, and I don't think she actually explained this, so I'm thinking she might have gotten stressed due to knowing she was lynching town), so it might have been more of a dissociation from a mislynch than anything else in a context where both lynch options would benefit her: otherwise, it's extremely hard to explain why she would intentionally let the lynch be literally random. Like, you don't do that when you're beginning to townread one of the options as town, you just VOTE THE OTHER lol. As for the "as scum, she should want the investigator dead at all costs" part, I'm not so sure about this: investigator is just a rolecop (which doesn't always reveal much about alignments), and even more importantly, whoever was getting lynched there, it was going to be MYLO on the next day, meaning the investigator's results wouldn't even matter, since scum could just call him scum and discredit anything he would say as some kind of last hail Mary (which is basically what is happening at the moment, for the record). Apart from this, the statement that you should take responsibility over who dies has two issues: 1) you didn't seem to be actually going to decide it when there was less than a minute left to the day, so putting responsibility on you wouldn't work; 2) why in the world does town, who doesn't know what the flips will be, want to put the lynch's responsibility on someone else? That is just indicative of scum not wanting to have green blood on their hands when they know it's going to be green.
Assuming W/W Mizery/Deathworlds, the EoD doesn't make much sense, though, because the bus towncred wouldn't be as easy and amazing to get by just letting it rand, so I have doubts on this and am not asserting it's the world we live in (and I think I already said this).

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Can I ask @Marshmallow Marshall ?

Unless I am missing something, most of your posts in day 2 have been about Mizery and POD and replying about your actions.
Between loldebite, deathworld and myself, and since there is a wolf among us three, who do you suspect the most? Have you had time to think about it?

I am thinking about it, but I doubt it's the best idea in the world to give our complete worlds immediatly if we are skipping (and thus letting scum kill); this applies to everybody, btw. My stance on Mizery has never been a secret, so it's not like it's a problem to share it, but I'm keeping the rest intentionally vague for today; besides, it's not like there's nothing else to say lol.

[Wiml]

I am thinking about it, but I doubt it's the best idea in the world to give our complete worlds immediatly if we are skipping (and thus letting scum kill); this applies to everybody, btw. My stance on Mizery has never been a secret, so it's not like it's a problem to share it, but I'm keeping the rest intentionally vague for today; besides, it's not like there's nothing else to say lol.

+1

[Wiml]

Too busy to respond to stuff ASAP but important to note that MM is completely right here.

[Wiml]

*respond to stuff immediately but will respond ASAP

[Wiml]

Spoiler : DAY 1 :

My mindset going into this game was that I was going to be very open, even if it sounds stupid or noobish, I'm going to say whatever I had in my mind to allow others to better read me as town. I was going to go as 'hard to read for a beginner' as I did in my previous two games (well I tried to be, not saying I was successful), but I thought that in this game where there are more players present, if i let myself read as town, it would help narrow down the list later on. Also as a beginner player who is being an obvious town, I didn't think mafia would prioritise killing me in night 1, Didn't you say you thought otherwise towards EoD1 though?especially if a PR claim appears. I knew my role was pretty garbage because I couldn't use my night action so I kept quiet about my role. That was my mindset in day 1.

Again, I don't remember exactly why, but I town read him and I believed him to be a town. I wanted to say he was a citizen because I thought he was WIFOMing to draw heat to himself and I wanted to WIFOM him myself to make it harder for mafia to figure out his role. If he was trying to draw attention to himself what what your WIFOM trying to accomplish by saying he was a citizen? Was I successful? No. Was it fun to think I created some confusion? Yes.

Now for the reason Loldebite had been grilling me hard. Yes, it does seem impossible for me to come up with the list and mechanics down in 4 minutes especially on a thought that just came up. My premise entirely depended on the potential of the post having been pre-written somewhere, Why did this post strike you as pre-written and not the one from Death? and the thought of deb working on it on a separate tab did cross my mind. But I had to poke for it because if by any chance I was right, then I ignored something that could've been very important. BUT I ADMIT. I missed this part in her previous post

I still stand by most of my reasoning, but if I can change something would be about scumreading Lolbite for the reason I stated before.



I still feel the same way, and perhaps Perhaps??? Do you not know why you voted? the reason for my vote on PoD is because of AtE, very defensive nature without countering any reasons or pointing to somewhere else. I do admit, I do feel a bit uneasy when it comes to Vittae, and it might be because Vittae is overly helpful. Asking too many too good questions, and with a lot of content. Perhaps Vittae is really good at wolfing. Perhaps this is because Vittae is naturally a good town player and highly experienced. But if you place yourself in my shoes.... quality of post wise, if everyone else is either town or neutral, and you think about PoD's post and Vittae's posts... it's only naturally for me to assume PoD is being the least helpful.

I still felt uneasy about lol at the time,Why? and because there was alot of people scumreading Mizery, I thought this was the right step even if I did not scum read Mizery.

@ikarusdk responded in purple

[Wiml]

Here's the first batch of 'em. I'm not sure there'll be others but I just remembered that EoD is less than 8h away so I should definitely go a little bit faster.

Spoiler : What have I done that I wouldn't have done as scum :

I most definitely wouldn't have phrased it that way if I wasn't snitch, I probably would've advocated for TPR claims. In fact, now that I pay closer attention to it, the phrasing here was because I hadn't thought of bucket claiming just yet (or not in those terms) and wanted to avoid PR claiming, because I didn't want to reveal my role, so I figured citizens could claim instead, which is the functionally exactly the same as bucket claiming.



I'm not quite sure I would've been in the mood to theme my readslist that way (cute/ugly) if I had randed scum, but I guess I might've. Actually I probably could've, scratch that.



I'm not sure I would've shut ika down that brusquely if I was scum, but again, I might've. Regarding pairings, I think would be more likely to do it that way if I'm paired with them.



There I think I likely wouldn't have been that aggressive if I'm paired with them, UNLESS it comes off unprompted or spontaneously without any context provided in scum chat (I once got very mad at a fellow scummate IRL, but since it was IRL mafia there was no way for him to explain his reasoning), even though I get angry a lot less than I did back then, I think the additional frustration of the fact that I could've been forwarned or something might be enough to get me angry enough. Unlikely set of circumstances, tho. Oh, especially since that was writen as I was catching up in the morning.



I might've omitted that part of brought it up only later if I was scum mate with MM. If I'm scum and not him I'd still mention it.



I think if I was scum here, there's no way I don't think & mention TMI if I post that.



Here I think the only way I don't panic if I'm scum is if I'm scum alongside DW



Same here, I either would've taken more time or wouldn't have left it at that I think

Don't have much to add bit thanks for the response.

[Mizery]

Can we hammer sleep yet I'm bored

[Wiml]

Can we hammer sleep yet I'm bored

Still waiting on a response from Death that should hopefully make his alignment readable, still waiting a response from you that should hopefully be able to make me actually be confident on your alignment and still need to finish some responses myself.

And in general need as much from Death as we possibly can given the difference check rn.

Not much point in hammering yet anyway.

[ikarusdk]

@ikarusdk responded in purple

My mindset going into this game was that I was going to be very open, even if it sounds stupid or noobish, I'm going to say whatever I had in my mind to allow others to better read me as town. I was going to go as 'hard to read for a beginner' as I did in my previous two games (well I tried to be, not saying I was successful), but I thought that in this game where there are more players present, if i let myself read as town, it would help narrow down the list later on. Also as a beginner player who is being an obvious town, I didn't think mafia would prioritise killing me in night 1, Didn't you say you thought otherwise towards EoD1 though?especially if a PR claim appears. I knew my role was pretty garbage because I couldn't use my night action so I kept quiet about my role. That was my mindset in day 1.

A: I became a priority target in day 2, after both PoD and Varcron had died. Aside from you I was one of strongest town read players thus far at that point in time. Also I had claimed TPR at that point. Since death's scan essentially made it boil down to between loldebite and deaths, I assumed if they were going to kill a PR at night, they would want to kill me to keep the stalemate going into Day 3.

Again, I don't remember exactly why, but I town read him and I believed him to be a town. I wanted to say he was a citizen because I thought he was WIFOMing to draw heat to himself and I wanted to WIFOM him myself to make it harder for mafia to figure out his role. If he was trying to draw attention to himself what what your WIFOM trying to accomplish by saying he was a citizen? Was I successful? No. Was it fun to think I created some confusion? Yes.

A: I now realise it was counteractive because I was doing the opposite thing I 'thought' Varcron was doing. But at the time I wanted to protect him because I believed he was town at the time. If I could draw less heat to him, the better I thought.

Now for the reason Loldebite had been grilling me hard. Yes, it does seem impossible for me to come up with the list and mechanics down in 4 minutes especially on a thought that just came up. My premise entirely depended on the potential of the post having been pre-written somewhere, Why did this post strike you as pre-written and not the one from Death? and the thought of deb working on it on a separate tab did cross my mind. But I had to poke for it because if by any chance I was right, then I ignored something that could've been very important. BUT I ADMIT. I missed this part in her previous post

A: I did not really care death's post was pre-written because I took it as a fun speculation without much solving or prediction of gameflow thus did not gain towncred from me from that post alone, whereas I took loldebite's post a little more seriously because it was more constructive in terms of what I could expect as days progress. While it could've been written by a town's POV (well from anyone's pov) it read something like a mafia team could've written down in their chat to predict the game state and what path they could follow, and without realising she had already stated she was working on the post, when I saw it posted within 4 minutes, AND she presented it as a new realization leading into subsequent train of thought, I thought there was a possibility it was copy pasted from mafia chat.

I still stand by most of my reasoning, but if I can change something would be about scumreading Lolbite for the reason I stated before.



I still feel the same way, and perhaps Perhaps??? Do you not know why you voted? the reason for my vote on PoD is because of AtE, very defensive nature without countering any reasons or pointing to somewhere else. I do admit, I do feel a bit uneasy when it comes to Vittae, and it might be because Vittae is overly helpful. Asking too many too good questions, and with a lot of content. Perhaps Vittae is really good at wolfing. Perhaps this is because Vittae is naturally a good town player and highly experienced. But if you place yourself in my shoes.... quality of post wise, if everyone else is either town or neutral, and you think about PoD's post and Vittae's posts... it's only naturally for me to assume PoD is being the least helpful.

A: I admit I did not have time to consolidate all the information I had because I only had about an hour before EoD. When I said 'perhaps' i meant that these are my reasons, but I was not 100% confident on my reasoning because I was also unsure of other players. If I have to explain my vote now, it'll be because when everyone was questioning PoD's posts, I was not skilled enough and let it affect my thoughts and feelings on that player. I started to stress, and tunnel on PoD everyone was already questioning, and justified why I need to vote him in my head even if they weren't good enough reasons (reasons I stated in my original post)

I still felt uneasy about lol at the time,Why? and because there was alot of people scumreading Mizery, I thought this was the right step even if I did not scum read Mizery.

A: Because even if she had explained prior in her post that she was already working on it, she could still easily have just said that to mask the copy n paste, hence why I did not respond to her comments straight away. I retracted my scumread on her because i thought it was weak, but that doesn't mean the initial feeling wasn't still there and feelings are hard to remove.

[ikarusdk]

wrong shade of purple. myeyeshurt

[ikarusdk]

Holy shit you're courageous, I don't think I ever did that myself, thanks a bunch

No problem, not sure if it'll be of any help, but worth going over and perhaps something might pop up that aligns with your current thoughts about the game.

It was fun to write up, didn't take too long to write.

[Loldebite]

Well I think I'll

-vote skip

and get off since I've got stuff to do. Goodbye to one or all of you guys, (maybe) cya tomorrow

[Wiml]

I'll just respond right in here because quoting a post makes the quotes within it disappear lol, so it's gonna be hard to do something similar to what you did. The responses are in the same orders as your questions.

Spoiler : Reply :

About the early mech posts: I am not reading them based on their usefulness, but rather on the intent behind them. A long, early mech post that contains useful information about what we should do and that indicates the player wants to take the day into their own hands is generally good (or at the very least not scummy, since I perfectly realize it's easy enough to actually be pro-town as scum by doing this). Conversely, a long, early mech post that really just... says things without the solving aspect is bad, because when you think about it, there is zero reason for town to put effort into something like that when it gives town nothing; hence, my read of the intent is that it's meant to look towny more than to be pro-town. I am aware it isn't a rock-hard argument lol and I don't necessarily give it tremendous weight now, but in the first half of D1, it was the most AI thing I could see - hence my not so amazing confidence at that point.


About Ikarus' "wrong = scum" mindset being towny: He's relatively new to FM (and I dare say his prior experience in the SC2 arcade doesn't really count here, since it's so different), and he puts in A LOT of effort for games. The scum behavior you're talking about would fit an old player who doesn't see the magic in the game anymore and just plays lazily, sometimes lurks, etc. (I've seen such people on other sites). Plus, "wrong = scum" is a common new player misconception about scumhunting, one that I had myself when I first played. To be honest, I hadn't even seriously considered the option you're talking about, because I felt like the situation it would apply to is so alien to the one Ikarus is in that it becomes irrelevant. It becomes even more true considering it would have been damn ineffective lol.


Why I ISO'd POD early on: Someone, I think it was Varcron, said in their reads list that I was "absent", basically that I had no posts and that they couldn't read me based on that. I thought "hey, that's not true lol" at first, and decided to go check the post count (which is done by going in the section (ongoing forum mafia games), and then clicking the little number indicated by "Posts:"). There, I saw that I indeed had only 13 posts, so I thought it might be fair for someone who may have overlooked some to say they just can't read me yet. Then, I noticed POD was super high on the list (I think he actually was the 2nd top poster, probably the first being you, Vittae), but that I literally could not remember any of their posts; plus, it was tempting to ISO him there, because the link to the post count page includes easy links to ISOs xD.


About needing POD resolved: I strongly believed POD to be scum for the rest of D1; the fact he needed to be resolved before we couldn't take risks anymore only sealed his fate in my mind. The only small moment of doubt I had is when Deathworlds just voted him out of the blue with like 10 minutes left to the day, which made me evaluate his vote using the votecount, but I then realized he was just purely forced to self-pres (I hadn't realized how much pressure he was under at that point and wouldn't have thought he would end up tied for lynch), so my doubt was dispelled.


Earlier posts that contrasted with Mizery's sudden confidence:

If I sum up the reads in there: Vittae opening without mech (not terribly great), Ikarus pure (this is pretty much the only hint of confidence I see in there), MM is gth townread by Vittae so I guess he's fine (literally just a temporary sheep, 0 confidence, + doubt), says her two wolfreads are likely not W/W (basically the opposite of confidence lol), pending wolfread on Deathworlds (it's pending further posts basically), null on POD (its a nullread). Note that this is exactly the kind of reads I expected from someone at the early stages of the game; this felt genuine enough, even though it wasn't terribly hard to fake at all.

This is basically the post that gave me an idea of Mizery's prior confidence, considering the rest of what she said was entirely unmemorable to me/just fluff/off-topic that didn't tell me much (I'm looking at her ISO right now and realize there literally was a bunch of thin air between this and the post that triggered my suspicion lol). Then comes:




If you want to see the progression (or lack thereof, actually), you may just go look at her early D1 ISO by yourself, it speaks for itself.


Expecting Varcron's death: Absolutely not lmao. I was pretty sure you were going to die, Vittae, because you were/are the de facto town leader and were towny (although I guess my townread on you at that point was based for a significant part on the mindmeld regarding POD), whereas he was basically a silent background player; sure, he had a towny claim, but it was still not confirmed at all, and the fact he was basically sleeping on it after getting some townreads made me have some background doubts.


On Mizery's last second vote at EOD: Mizery seems to have somehow started to feel like POD was getting towny towards EOD (which I still fail to see, btw, and I don't think she actually explained this, so I'm thinking she might have gotten stressed due to knowing she was lynching town), so it might have been more of a dissociation from a mislynch than anything else in a context where both lynch options would benefit her: otherwise, it's extremely hard to explain why she would intentionally let the lynch be literally random. Like, you don't do that when you're beginning to townread one of the options as town, you just VOTE THE OTHER lol. As for the "as scum, she should want the investigator dead at all costs" part, I'm not so sure about this: investigator is just a rolecop (which doesn't always reveal much about alignments), and even more importantly, whoever was getting lynched there, it was going to be MYLO on the next day, meaning the investigator's results wouldn't even matter, since scum could just call him scum and discredit anything he would say as some kind of last hail Mary (which is basically what is happening at the moment, for the record). Apart from this, the statement that you should take responsibility over who dies has two issues: 1) you didn't seem to be actually going to decide it when there was less than a minute left to the day, so putting responsibility on you wouldn't work; 2) why in the world does town, who doesn't know what the flips will be, want to put the lynch's responsibility on someone else? That is just indicative of scum not wanting to have green blood on their hands when they know it's going to be green.
Assuming W/W Mizery/Deathworlds, the EoD doesn't make much sense, though, because the bus towncred wouldn't be as easy and amazing to get by just letting it rand, so I have doubts on this and am not asserting it's the world we live in (and I think I already said this).

Thanks, my reply to stuff:

Spoiler : Reply :

Early Mech Post: Nothing I feel needs to be added.

Ikarus' "Wrong = Scum" Mindset: I'm satisfied with this response. Was more asking because since newer scum tend to struggle to push villagers due to TMI it's very easy for them to go down the "push villagers who were incorrect for being incorrect" route as there is little to no fake solving or deep thought required. I think we just had different thought processes here.

PoD ISO Early On: Nothing to add, I'm more surprised that I didn't realise there was a post count page with ISO links until now.

Needing PoD Resolved: Don't have anything to add.

Miz's Confidence: Yeah, I can see how you came to this. I agree that what you're saying looks more valid than I initially gave it credit for, especially if you take it at face value (I only interpreted it as semi-serious and had other reasons to believe Miz could realistically have a solid degree of confidence so I initially interpreted it as mostly NAI).

Varcron's Death: Ok I can totally believe that you would believe this, I have a similar NK philosophy to what you're saying here where I'd rather kill immediately threatening players over townread players (obviously within reason). In this case though, I thought it was pretty likely that Varcron was Chemist (hence me mildly softing Chemist a few times to try to draw a potential Mafia Operator onto me and making a point of saying Chemists shouldn't holster to Varcron) so it might be possible the scum team did as well. More likely, I suspect it was more of a default kill. The mafia team may have also been hesitant to kill me expecting me to either push Death today if he's town or be worried about the kill reflecting too poorly on Death given my push there if he's mafia.

Miz's Last Second Vote Switch: Will break this into bullet points.
- I have to agree with Miz that PoD was getting townier towards EoD1. My losing confidence on PoD was one of the main factors for my vote switch to Death and I found PoD to progressively get more villagery later in the day as well even if I still found PoD to be the most appealing of the non-Death wagons at the time.
- I'd argue that miselimning Deathworlds (assuming town here obviously) is significantly better for wolf-Miz than miselimning PoD. PoD was obvious LHF and, as we both agree, would have been very difficult to avoid having as the game losing elimination if brought to lylo. If Miz had chosen to get Death to flip, the game should have been basically over even if it did out herself in the process (it wouldn't have).
- Investigator does almost function as an alignment cop in this setup (there are no mafia citizen equivalents so it functions as a stronger Neapolitan in practice, still useful in MYLO because now we have a confirmed mafia in 3 names so it excludes teams with 2 in me/Miz/you) but I'll give you that I completely forgot about the possibility of a mafia bartender or operator which would make Miz's play here as a wolf still poor play and very suboptimal but not outright game throwing.
- Statement issue 2 is sort of my point: Miz already made the scummy-looking post. Why turn back once you've already made yourself look bad anyway?
- We basically agree about the w/w bit. I think it's also worth adding that, until Miz voted Death, the Death wagon got no traction and I was about to switch away so she was as responsible for getting that wagon going as I was and then she stuck to it even when given a good excuse to directly switch to PoD (the claim).

Didn't have a lot to ask as these answers covered what I was wanting to see.

[Wiml]

wrong shade of purple. myeyeshurt

You made me worry that I'd exposed everyone to this terrible shade of purple.

[Wiml]

@deathworlds please make sure you scan inside of Miz and MM tonight. Everybody else is a really bad idea for various reasons.
@ikarusdk please make sure you use your ability tonight on a player who isn't me (NK if you survive) or Death (duh) and as discussed before please don't leave a message that Death could confuse for a town investigator result if shenanigans happen.

[ikarusdk]

-vote skip

[Wiml]

Skip is at L-2, please make sure to give Death the opportunity to check in before any hammers.

[Wiml]

Skip is at L-1 please unvote

[Wiml]

Ikarus please unvote for now, don't want an accidental Hammer before Death has the chance to show up.

[Wiml]

My mindset going into this game was that I was going to be very open, even if it sounds stupid or noobish, I'm going to say whatever I had in my mind to allow others to better read me as town. I was going to go as 'hard to read for a beginner' as I did in my previous two games (well I tried to be, not saying I was successful), but I thought that in this game where there are more players present, if i let myself read as town, it would help narrow down the list later on. Also as a beginner player who is being an obvious town, I didn't think mafia would prioritise killing me in night 1, Didn't you say you thought otherwise towards EoD1 though?especially if a PR claim appears. I knew my role was pretty garbage because I couldn't use my night action so I kept quiet about my role. That was my mindset in day 1.

A: I became a priority target in day 2, after both PoD and Varcron had died. Aside from you I was one of strongest town read players thus far at that point in time. Also I had claimed TPR at that point. Since death's scan essentially made it boil down to between loldebite and deaths, I assumed if they were going to kill a PR at night, they would want to kill me to keep the stalemate going into Day 3.

Again, I don't remember exactly why, but I town read him and I believed him to be a town. I wanted to say he was a citizen because I thought he was WIFOMing to draw heat to himself and I wanted to WIFOM him myself to make it harder for mafia to figure out his role. If he was trying to draw attention to himself what what your WIFOM trying to accomplish by saying he was a citizen? Was I successful? No. Was it fun to think I created some confusion? Yes.

A: I now realise it was counteractive because I was doing the opposite thing I 'thought' Varcron was doing. But at the time I wanted to protect him because I believed he was town at the time. If I could draw less heat to him, the better I thought.

Now for the reason Loldebite had been grilling me hard. Yes, it does seem impossible for me to come up with the list and mechanics down in 4 minutes especially on a thought that just came up. My premise entirely depended on the potential of the post having been pre-written somewhere, Why did this post strike you as pre-written and not the one from Death? and the thought of deb working on it on a separate tab did cross my mind. But I had to poke for it because if by any chance I was right, then I ignored something that could've been very important. BUT I ADMIT. I missed this part in her previous post

A: I did not really care death's post was pre-written because I took it as a fun speculation without much solving or prediction of gameflow thus did not gain towncred from me from that post alone, whereas I took loldebite's post a little more seriously because it was more constructive in terms of what I could expect as days progress. While it could've been written by a town's POV (well from anyone's pov) it read something like a mafia team could've written down in their chat to predict the game state and what path they could follow, and without realising she had already stated she was working on the post, when I saw it posted within 4 minutes, AND she presented it as a new realization leading into subsequent train of thought, I thought there was a possibility it was copy pasted from mafia chat.

I still stand by most of my reasoning, but if I can change something would be about scumreading Lolbite for the reason I stated before.



I still feel the same way, and perhaps Perhaps??? Do you not know why you voted? the reason for my vote on PoD is because of AtE, very defensive nature without countering any reasons or pointing to somewhere else. I do admit, I do feel a bit uneasy when it comes to Vittae, and it might be because Vittae is overly helpful. Asking too many too good questions, and with a lot of content. Perhaps Vittae is really good at wolfing. Perhaps this is because Vittae is naturally a good town player and highly experienced. But if you place yourself in my shoes.... quality of post wise, if everyone else is either town or neutral, and you think about PoD's post and Vittae's posts... it's only naturally for me to assume PoD is being the least helpful.

A: I admit I did not have time to consolidate all the information I had because I only had about an hour before EoD. When I said 'perhaps' i meant that these are my reasons, but I was not 100% confident on my reasoning because I was also unsure of other players. If I have to explain my vote now, it'll be because when everyone was questioning PoD's posts, I was not skilled enough and let it affect my thoughts and feelings on that player. I started to stress, and tunnel on PoD everyone was already questioning, and justified why I need to vote him in my head even if they weren't good enough reasons (reasons I stated in my original post)

I still felt uneasy about lol at the time,Why? and because there was alot of people scumreading Mizery, I thought this was the right step even if I did not scum read Mizery.

A: Because even if she had explained prior in her post that she was already working on it, she could still easily have just said that to mask the copy n paste, hence why I did not respond to her comments straight away. I retracted my scumread on her because i thought it was weak, but that doesn't mean the initial feeling wasn't still there and feelings are hard to remove.

Also ty for this, nothing worthwhile for me to be adding before EoD though.

[Wiml]

Guess nobody's here, I'll hammer a few mins before EoD unless someone asks otherwise.

[Loldebite]

ngl dw not even showing up feels like a forfeit

[Wiml]

ngl dw not even showing up feels like a forfeit

It's frustrating 40% of the player's I've been trying to read today haven't been cooperative but nothing I can do about that.

[Wiml]

Final warning before I hammer.