@ikarusdk
Actually super serious,
If you think the team is me and stealth - and you know that there's no one else here to vote - why vote me which will result in oliver dying, rather than voting stealth and having it be randed between the two?
-vote Stealthbomber16
You only have 2 minutes and 40 seconds to explain yourself
Well I hope you are right. I could not get a read of SB, but he was going to be next.
I very much hope I'm right too
oliverz144 (2 [L-1]):
Trout, Stealthbomber16
Trout (1 [L-2]):
oliverz144
Stealthbomber16 (2 [L-1]):
ikarusdk, FM-Mabel Pines
will be randing in a few moments
too lazy to close thread since I'll be re-opening it due to lack of night phase
A.K.A "That One Idiot"
@oliverz144 dies to tie RNG and flips town
creation of an EoD2 countdown will be put into 1st post soon
Last edited by MartinGG99; December 16th, 2022 at 02:21 AM. Reason: decided earlier to not give deadchat link given behavior
A.K.A "That One Idiot"
oh and got to reset the bot
A.K.A "That One Idiot"
So we can carry on?
I wanted SB to die there since I thought Oli was town. If SB flipped town, then I was right on Mabel.
Yes we can.
It's lylo now - so a single incorrectly placed town vote will lose the game.
Let me re-iterate that:
@ikarusdk
@Trout
@Varcron
@Stealthbomber16
A single incorrectly placed vote will lose the game - do not vote recklessly
ngl - I think ikarus was kind of caught off guard - planning on voting me in order to push a "Mabel + Stealth" scum team, while letting oliver slide through as the chop.
And then continue that into a push on me today. But didn't realize that if he believes in a Mabel + SB scum team, then he should vote SB there and there's really no reason for him to not.
And now I think he's going to double back on that today and try to come up with a way to not vote SB lol
I think stealth is like - pretty much always a wolf here?
I'm mad.
Literally get the right reads and then people just don't play the game, at least half the town players just didn't show up for EoD - like oliver just signs for shit min posts at the start of the day and then goes AWOL - what the fuck?
And where Varc never even voted. This is seriously tilting.
I just hope that I will have more things to read and work on today.
Almost forgot:
Since there are no night phases, D2 has started as of like 30 minutes ago. First post has been updated with an EoD2 countdown and the flip.
THAT MEANS 5 MORE POSTS IN 48 HOURS YE COUCH POTATOES >:C
except, obviously, those who have already met this in-game daily requirement
@Stealthbomber16
@Trout
@Varcron
A.K.A "That One Idiot"
All I need is one sure fire townread on one player other than sheriff
???
We've just played an entire day of FM - you were already townreading oliver - there shouldn't be a huge re-evaluation for you here, there's no new insights shaking up your world view, why are your reads still so hands off?
You just listed every possible team that doesn't include you, you basically said nothing.
We're on day 2 and you're basically hard claiming to have no reads here.
This is suuuuuuuuuuper different from the town ikarus I shadow hydra'd with last time.
More things to read?
I literally made like a dozen long posts to wall posts earlier about the content we've already seen - there's plenty of alignment indicative stuff to read right now.
Right now, no stalling, what are your thoughts on the game?
What are your reads - there's only three possible teams from your POV, right?
So which one do you think is the least likely?
Which one do you think is the most likely?
As I explained before, I wanted you to be lynched because I scum read you. SB was going to be next if we mislynch you, with trout being his teammate. But since Oli was mislynched, j am back to where I started.
I mean by what you said in above post, we should be lynching SB and Trout but I would like some more time to contemplate your posts and others before I can come to a conclusion because i cannot be wrong today
But I dont know if I can trust you right now because you've been scum reading me all game, which makes me doubt your judgement (with all due respect) because you are obviously wrong about me if you were town. So I need to take what you said with a grain if salt and go with my instinct when I have more time and on pc because using my phone in an outdoor setting is a little difficult
Having said that, people scum reading me could just be my own fault so
Why do you scumread me?
And thinking about this scenario from the perspective of who you scumread the most today isn't the right way to go about it. Wolves are working adversarially - they're trying to look townie. And as you said, you don't think there's much to read individual players off of. I disagree but the thing that is much easier to read than just individual players is pairings.
There are three teams - all you have to do is rule out one pairing as a not possible wolf team and then you've got yourself someone who is always a wolf from your POV.
The thing with ruling out individual pairings is that it's much easier to actually be accurate with it. Wolves are constantly working to look townie, but they're not constantly working to look like they can be potentially paired with every player - there will naturally be antipairings that emerge and being able to identify those is one of the keys to winning lylo scenarios.
A common mistake in FM is assuming that because someone is wrong about one thing, it means they're wrong about everything.
Or assuming that because they were right about one thing, they're right about everything.
In general players will have a baseline rate at which they're accurate - but then within a given game, just because they've been wrong once or twice, it doesn't mean that all their reads are wrong - the rest of their reads are going to just be at roughly their baseline accuracy rate.
I think you're a wolf with stealth - but I think the Stealth/Trout team is also entirely possible, which is why I wanted to chop Stealth yesterday, because Stealth was always a wolf, but as for his +1 I was less confident.
gm everyone, i hope wherever oliver is he realizes he messed up bad back there
also, would it be a good strategy to randomly vote and quickly unvote someone before mafia gets to double-vote them out to catch them in the act? has it worked before and at what success rate?
I'm gonna need a listing of everyone's PC specs if we're gonna do this. If mine are better I think we're good to go
well, seems we're not getting anywhere, so might as well speed this up-vote іkаrսsԁk
Edit by Martin: This is an invalid vote. See my post after this for more details.
Last edited by MartinGG99; December 16th, 2022 at 03:20 PM.
-vote Trout
Your last post seems like powerwolfing
I also didn't like the train on oliver at all the entire day, I just haven't had the time to post.
Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16
-vote unvote
Just realized lylo
Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16
Imo the pairing is probably Stealth+Trout
Ikar I think is town based off of how he's been acting and I think Mabel has been solving and asking good questions/pointing out useful info constantly.
Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16
Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16
But yeah if I were here yesterday I likely would have voted stealth off. Mabel is in a firm town position currently and I don't even know how any other train solidified to be honest.
Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16
This is an invalid vote which appears as a real one, and I have edited the post to reflect that.
Do not discuss my post, other than the fact that the vote shown above is invalid. Any concerns regarding this from a rules standpoint should be directed to me privately, and NOT publicly.
A.K.A "That One Idiot"
no, because then it'd just be a real vote, and I wouldn't stand to lose anything from that
what that's just silly because it also implies there are 3 mafia
Sorry for my absence. I severely underestimated the amount of energy that I would have this week.
The only way that this game makes sense at this point is Mabel + Trout, where Mabel pushed me while Trout pushed Oli. It was a play that if I were putting more focus into reading I probably would've gotten.
I don't see a world where Trout is wolf with ika with the fake vote. I guess if I take Trout's fake vote at face value it means the scum team could be Mabel + Ikarus but that feels less likely to me than Trout + Mabel given the way the votes laid out yesterday.
oliverz144 (2 [L-1]):
Trout, Stealthbomber16
Trout (1 [L-2]):
oliverz144
Stealthbomber16 (2 [L-1]):
ikarusdk, FM-Mabel Pines
This looks more correct to me than a world where both scum voted me and oli flipped green anyway.