-vote 10000jellydoughnuts
-vote 10000jellydoughnuts
Praise the Lord!
Skipped over some of the most recent posts for now but I just read the attack on Frinckles/Clowns
And I'm still more than content to stick with Oliver, who I believe has a much stronger case
If Oliver flips scum, then Frinckles/Clowns becomes less likely
Because both "town will be shaken and destroyed" and "coaching" must have come from scum chat
I've narrowed down "coaching" to Aporia.
Now, if Aporia is scum, then that means the pairing would be Aporia/Clowns/Frinckles
But then "town being shaken and destroyed," which most likely came from Oliver, isn't possible.
Also Aporia was replaced by Stealthbomber and I don't see why he'd make an entire case on his other 2 scummates and push them so hard
But if Oliver flips town, then Frinckles/Clowns is still unlikely
Because then there's nobody which the "coaching" thing could have come from
Ultimately, even if I'm wrong about "shaken and destroyed" being from Oliver, it must have at least come from Clowns then. But then Aporia, who is now Stealthbomber, must have written the message about coaching. And as I covered before, it's extremely unlikely that he wrote an entire case on the rest of his scumteam and is pushing them so hard
That was a little messy but I'm sure I got the general point across
Frinckles/Clowns isn't possible here, and Oliver is still the best lynch by far
Ez first try
And you failed hammering
Praise the Lord!
I also need to get around to ISO'ing Aporia
Oh yeah also
you never explained what those reasons were @10000JellyDoughnuts
And @Stealthbomber16 you never responded to this:
On an unrelated note, I'm collecting these white rings above my head faster than Sonic collects onion rings
Pretty sure I explained everything I could, not sure what you are confused about.
I'm pretty confident that I'll flip town, so I'm not really worried I'll die. My will gives better reasoning, but I targeted Aporia N1 and received information. I did some calculations in my head, and determine while the slot was scummy, the mechanics track. TL;DR: Less likely scum, I'll be happy to reveal in my will.
Missed quoting the post, but I think Oliver said Clowns and I have to be scum because opening post says maf don't get daychat, and ours closed middle of day 2? That's a bad argument. If a chat is exclusive to a phase, it doesn't... not be exclusive for half of a phase.
Greeeeeeeeeeetingz
Considering the VCA, I'd lump Jelly into the Frinckles/Clowns team here. The exact same analysis fits, and Jelly themselves doesn't have an amazing ISO.
As for Clowns, I went to check his D1 readslist that was so scandalous to everyone (it was indeed pretty bad lol, so many nulls when they shouldn't have been null, but it could have just been the sign of a relatively new townie, so it's not necessarily very scummy imo), and then compared with his D2 list. The progression is... absolutely nonexistent, and often straight up contradictory. Examples:
- Aporia/Stealth read is not too horrible on the side of contradiction, but it's still fishy to contrast Aporia being busy and Stealth coming in with energy and to present that as scummy.
- The read on myself is thoroughly inconsistent: it goes from "confident, stimulating discussion, asking questions" to "hasn't been adding very much in terms of contributions" and "hasn't been pushing anyone very hard" (which isn't even true lol, considering pushes on Oliver and Frinckles at that point). There is no progression in the ISO to make the bridge here, considering literally no post addressed me lol.
- Bakura: from "troll that only fluffs" to "actively solving" without visible thought progression and without a significant change in Bakura's behavior afaik
- Frinckles: from "fluff posting troll" to "heavily tunnelled and scummy"; the fluff part is not really right (it's part of the "all null" post), whereas the heavily tunnelled strongly contrasts with the "troll" view (another contradiction) and is a strange way to describe the guy who magically changed vote 1 minute before EoD, like this part didn't matter at all...
- Martin: in the first list, Clowns says Martin reads like a troll, which is a MASSIVE red flag lmao (I know I said the list didn't look too bad by itself earlier, but now that I do the comparison, I find this one to be particularly uncanny); I don't think I need to explain why, but I will anyway: Martin is a very analytical player that is anything but trolly. He sure is funny, but not trolly at all. And then, in the 2nd list, the read shifts from "troll" to "I disagree with their arguments a lot but I like them anyway", which is AGAIN a contradiction without progression to explain it.
- Ashoka: No contradictions/wrong progression here, but I note that the read in the 1st list is just "null" and that in the 2nd list, it's a nothingburger of two lines with the word "interesting" that has absolutely no meaning in the context...
Overall, Clowns' list on D1 is not horribly damning (even though it is scum >rand in the end), but when crossed with his D2 list, it absolutely is, and I thoroughly support lynching them. Honestly, this analysis is damning enough for me to change my vote there.-vote TheClownsAs for Frinckles, I already supported lynching him, and the evidence about interactions between the two, while not particularly strong because it is based on what isn't and should be (i.e. on the lack of interaction + on the Frinckles omission of Clowns' D1 list), still is another valid point against both of them.
Also, if Stealth is not town, I solemnly swear not to ever eat blue raspberries ever in my life. This kind of heavy solving is absolutely not something I'd expect from most scum, and definetly not from scum!Stealthbomber.
I don’t think Jelly is with Frinckles/Clowns here because they voted tried to turbo him D2 IIRC @Marshmallow Marshall
If you go by VCA only like that, I actually think Bakura is more likely to be 3rd scum than Jelly. I’m… not convinced that’s the case, but it seems very reasonable now that it’s occurred to me.
Oh yeah also, something I noticed earlier but forgot to comment on: Martin said he had tried to use his action overnight in case there would be shenanigans around the event on D2 about lynching in 24 hours. This might be dumb, but I feel like it's something that strongly indicates Martin is town: it's pretty far-fetched to think of this if you're scum. It's technically possible, of course, but it just doesn't feel like a natural thing to do (and to say afterwards in day chat) if you're scum with a scum action.
I mean, look at this:
This is very far from an interaction that clears Jelly from being teamed with Frinckles lmao. If anything, it looks more like theater than anything, especially the "am I being pranked" part; Jelly doesn't feel very threatened here.
Not impossible, but I am not sure how the VCA indicates this at all (or how anything else does, for that matter). Bakura was literally on Tauntshaman with me on D1, and D2 seems irrelevant. Am I missing something? I rest my case about Jelly, btw.
Yeah, Oliverz and Jelly are very probably not SvS. It would be really wrong of Oliverz to add pressure on Jelly now when they're actually escaping pressure due to some being applied on Clowns and on Frinckles if they were scummates lol. That still doesn't tell us which one(s) is town, though
I have MASSIVE issues with treating speculation about who would write "coaching" as something that completely rules out people from being of an alignment. This kind of analysis is far from absolute, and it's very possible it was said in a style that isn't usual for the author (this kind of strategy is not unheard of when it comes to anonymous messages).
On your unrelated note, the white rings over your head soon will merge in one that looks as cool as Oliverz's
-vote TheClowns
Separately:
Jelly didn't care to check on their vote after I brought up the fact that they did an incorrect vote. technically they implied they did but:
I feel its scummy since Jelly literally is alive because three people couldn't type right on d2, making the impact of such an issue obvious to them, and the fact that Jelly for some reason cares just enough to hide their reasons a bit. They are practically inexplicable because I feel like this just disproves the possibility of neither ignorance nor carelessness (from a town slot's perspective) as explanations for their behavior so far.
A.K.A "That One Idiot"
Lol for the record, I'm a little surprised "shaked and destroyed" sounds like something I'd say to you. We've known eachother for long enough for you to realize I am much more into purging heretics, guillotining reactionaries and sending people to gulag than I am into... this lol
I'm also lowkey surprised you're giving this whole "who said it" thing such importance to the point of making it the main day topic for a big part of D3.
Re: what I said earlier
its very risky to do the "oh hey we should make an alliance and help each other against the town"
I believe there had to be significant mechanical incentive for this arrangement work otherwise we would've found out without having to rely on Ewian's LW.
Communicative-type abilities tend to not provide that incentive imo.
A.K.A "That One Idiot"
So MM contents that:
Was not only not written by himself, but was written by somebody who used codeswitching to change the way they type when they could not have presumed the text would be leaked.et’s create an alliance I will coach and protect you, we vote together, join me and town will be shaken and destroyed
(͡o‿O͡)
(๑˃̵ᴗ˂̵)ﻭ 레드벨벳 ! ! ٩(♡ε♡ )۶
I feel like nobody's acknowledging my push on Oliver
I'll respond to some more stuff later but first I want Oliver to be properly addressed
No. This is nitpicking at its finest. If you are going to think something is wrong with my posts, actually point something problematic out.
I mean. The reason I'm hesitant of claiming is that it makes my role kinda bad, so I would prefer to delay it. I also don't really care too much about self-pres when I'm not under the spotlight. If I die, then everything that makes sense will reveal in my will.
I'll make this clear, after further calculations, I have soft mechanical evidence for Aporia/SB slot.
combattre
(๑˃̵ᴗ˂̵)ﻭ 레드벨벳 ! ! ٩(♡ε♡ )۶
If I were trying to bury it, I would just shut up and talk exclusively about other stuff, it's not like I couldn't just do that lmao.
I think Oliver is just not a priority anymore because others are scummier. Also, I stand by my Oliverz-Jelly not SvS read, and I scumread Jelly more than Oliver, sooo. It's not entirely out of the question, it's just not something I think should be addressed right now (considering EoD is in 3 hours).
Bakura and Oliverz have a fake interaction with each other. Currently they are voting each other, and Bakura and Oliverz have a weird side-argument that went unnoticed. Could see an Oliverz flip as scum.
Why do you think Jelly is scummier?
Oliver perfectly fits "shaken and destroyed" message, has been overly defensive and been coasting on the sidelines since D2, and made a terrible defense of why he couldn't have written the "shaken and destroyed" thing
and he fits in basically any scum pairing
(๑˃̵ᴗ˂̵)ﻭ 레드벨벳 ! ! ٩(♡ε♡ )۶
I just don't think Oliverz could write it /shrug
So I've been actively ignoring it, especially when the same sort of argument or "point" is repeated over and over
A.K.A "That One Idiot"
Ho-ho-ho, my silly little shortsighted Marshall! You forgot something: the day 2 mid-day elim scramble.
10000JellyDoughnuts (4 [L-3]):
Mreevee, jmw, Frinckles, MartinGG99
Marshmallow Marshall (1 [L-6]):
oliverz144
oliverz144 (1 [L-6]):
Marshmallow Marshall
Frinckles WAS on the Jelly wagon, and Clowns intended to vote on it but misspelled the name! Why would two scum be voting to turbo their teammate here?
A.K.A "That One Idiot"