Originally Posted by
Gikkle
Alright, alright. I'll stop being lazy... I have a bad habit of just letting other people do the work when there are more competent people than me in the game.
First thing I'd like to announce is that I AM NOT THE CONGRESSMAN. I am the medic. I was doing a reaction fish, as well as trying to remain hidden as the medic (Paopan refused to work with me I guess, acting as MM AGAIN? I wanted to believe Paopan had a chance of being town and that we could confuse the scum, but that did not work out). Specifically - I was seeing if anyone was aligned with Paopan, who I know to be the true congressman. I also know, based on the loldebite kill, scum were probably hunting for the real medic. I suppose I did a good enough job not seeming like the medic, so they offed him, presumably. Or they just killed him because he SRed PQR and was widely townread. That's possible too.
Things I noted were the following:
SB16 is HIGHLY unlikely to be aligned with Paopan. His reaction (#1459) is one I would expect of someone who wasn't teamed with Paopan; a simple, honest observation without obviously believing me too wholeheartedly, while also not needling the claim as if they know it's false. It's the type of reaction that doesn't really show an awareness it was a reaction fish, which scum aligned with paopan would know it was.
The two reactions I expected of scum aligned with Paopan are to ignore the reaction fish completely, or to engage it completely. I don't think they would want a middle ground approach simply because they KNOW it's a reaction fish, so they would want to either stay out of it or frame their response to look good - being in the middle ground doesn't achieve either. PQR's reaction, in particular, was needling, while also saying "yeah I definitely believe you". It seemed to me he was trying too hard to show he "genuinely believed me", by pressuring me, by asking questions, yet doing it beyond any inquisitive soul would - he asked questions that should have already been answered by my original claim post. Asking "why I did not stand up for myself (when everyone was saying 3rd Cman was scum)", despite the fact the obvious answer is that I was doing a reaction fish as Cman.
Lag's response was better, or at least more neutral. I could see either alignment of Lag doing it.
The point of this reaction fish was not to find scum directly though; my analysis on PQR's reaction could very well be wrong since scum knowing it would be a reaction fish means they would be able to act quite genuinely townie, so it would depend on the skill level of the scum. It was to see who WASN'T aligned with Paopan. I succeeded, though not to a degree I would have wished considering how many ignored my claim. I don't believe SB16/Paopan are scum together. Might seem small, but that's information!
Second point of this was just because I wanted to remain hidden, and I thought a possible T!Paopan would work with me. Clearly, he did not.
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Analysis time.
Let's consider every possibility, then.
MM, Paopan, Lag, PQRN, Oliverz, Renegade, SB16
For the sake of analysis, I will be using every name here. No "I think MM/Oliverz is town so I am not including them"
Let's start with some not W/W associations.
Lag/Renegade not S/S.
SB16/PQRN not S/S.
MM/PQRN not S/S.
MM/Oliverz not S/S. Day 1 projection onto Oliverz make this nearly impossible in my eyes.
SB16/Renegade can't be a team in any 3 person scenario. Renegade is trying to turn the lynch onto SB16, so 2 person team between them is not possible either.
I'm also going to strike off some less likely pairings, that while not impossible, are a bit of a stretch.
PQRN/Lag (extremely blatant buddying yesterday and then Lag 180s and is now on board with killing PQRN on MYLO. If Lag is scum, this is more evident of pocketing PQR on Lag's part and then wanting to get that final mischop to win the game.)
Paopan/Lag (weird medic CC makes it unlikely since it didn't seem like a planned interaction)
Paopan/SB16 (1/3 of it the reaction fish I just did, 1/3 of it is how SB16 interacted with Paopan on page 26 which seemed like genuine a not-bus like attack on Paopan, and 1/3 of it is how Paopan is now trying to off SB16 right now.)
Lag/Oliverz (opening up the game with an aggressive attack on their buddy? Unlikely. Oliverz doesn't strike me as the type of player to bus that early (even if he did not intend to push it very far) without first consulting his buddies (which would be impossible since scum have no day chat), based on the one scum game I've seen from them. Lag's reaction confirms this since she doesn't entertain it, she immediately dismisses it, cutting the interaction and any town points they may have gained from it short. )
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MM, Paopan, Lag, PQRN, Oliverz, Renegade, SB16
MM, Paopan, Renegade
MM, Lag, SB16
Paopan, PQRN, Renegade
Paopan, Oliverz, Renegade
PQRN, Oliverz, Renegade
PQRN, Oliverz, SB16
These are the possible teams, disregarding my reads on individual players. Hopefully I did not miss any.
If we consider individuals....
MM - Has been very consistent and logical about his reasons for suspecting PQR. His conviction seems genuine, as if he genuinely thinks PQR is scum. If PQR had been lynched and flipped town, the next day would likely have immediately flipped on to MM. MM's conviction seems legit; despite opposition, and the fact if PQR was town he could have gotten offed, he pushed hard, consistently, and with good, logical reasons. Attitude wise, MM's reactions to events have seemed genuine. Perhaps I'm terribly misreading this slot? But if he's scum this time, he's doing even better than his LAST scum game, in which he did not display nearly this level of conviction and aggression.
Paopan - Has consistently been unhelpful, but honestly I can't be sure if that's just paopan being scum or paopan being paopan.
Lag - Day 1 was meh, Day 2 was okay, Day 3 was better. Their analysis posts at the start of D3 seemed fine - Their push on MM day 2 was consistent with suspicion on them day 1. If PQR is town, this is scum just based on the 180 read from yesterday which indicates a hunt for mislynches. Their actual reasoning for the push on MM and SB16 d2 was weird and felt forced, and is probably the only reason a MM/SB16/Lag team isn't completely inconsiderable. A bus attempt on MM, with a 180 when it is MYLO is not completely un-imagineable.
PQRN - Very surface level analysis done by him. He keeps making big posts, but it always seems like he's trying to justify a pre-determined conclusion. I honestly thought he was townie day 1. His posts after that have been very meh though. I agree with some of MM's reasoning on him.
Oliverz - No hard reason to TR him. Mostly just attitude. Possible re-evaluation needed?
Renegade - Hasn't really been helpful all game and is only now, when PQR is under threat of lynch, trying to scramble. Strange.
SB16 - Thoughts have seemed genuine enough. Some of his indecision and confusion I've vibed with, particularly post #1274.
MM and SB16 are both independently townie players.
Paopan, PQRN, Renegade
Paopan, Oliverz, Renegade
PQRN, Oliverz, Renegade
That leaves the following teams.