S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II

[PQRnHack]

So I've been pondering, why would they kill Loldebite, which seems like an odd choice because at the surface, it narrows down the CMAN#3 scum pool down to 2, so 50% (Gikkle, Lag). Why not kill a PR town instead and keep me guessing between 3: Gikkle, Lag, and Loldebite?

Here are my thoughts. And I fully expect scum to shade me and state that I am the scum/killer and these were my thoughts all along!

a) Lag, in addition to myself, has also been close to a "train" D1 and D2 and remains town's suspect, so if want to kill 1 of 2 town in X+Loldebite, then Lolde is a good choice (leave the X -- whichever is town in Gikkle/Lag -- instead of leaving Lolde). So I tend to believe X(Town)=Lag is more likely than X=Gikkle. Thank you for helping the solve, Scum!
b) Went for a sure kill rather than go for Medic who might heal himself or for a higher-value PR town (like Mayor) who may get protected by Medic. Probably goes in tandem with their confidence in d)
c) Leave both oliver and PQR alive to allow for fake scum team compositions for them to advertise, leave these "scummy towns" for EZ chops later. Oliver and PQR = LHF.
d) High confidence in PQR mislynch D3 based on D1, D2 trains and my self-preservation votes both days. Which I know to be TvT both days!

[PQRnHack]

BTW the fact that they didnt take out a town PR role almost locks in Medic as town. If Medic was scum, then Mafia were free to kill town PR with 100% certainty. Instead, they subjected themselves to the change in scum CMAN#3 odds from 33% to 50% in town's favor. This re-affirms my townread of Pao Medic.

So if I am correct, then the one town in you 3 PRs, all of which are ready to lynch me, will have to make a hero play today. @Renegade @Stealthbomber16 @Marshmallow Marshall whichever of you is town will have to prepare for the other 2 to be scum.

Also, the scum composition with Voter in it is unlikely because if that were the case, then after scum chose to kill Loldebite, now both Gikkle + Lag would be scum, which would improve town's odds by pickling from that wagon from 50% to 100%. And I say this because I am confident 3rd CMAN is scum (i.e., it is not like all 3 CMEN are town and the 1 remaining Voter is scum).

[Renegade]

BTW the fact that they didnt take out a town PR role almost locks in Medic as town. If Medic was scum, then Mafia were free to kill town PR with 100% certainty. Instead, they subjected themselves to the change in scum CMAN#3 odds from 33% to 50% in town's favor. This re-affirms my townread of Pao Medic.

So if I am correct, then the one town in you 3 PRs, all of which are ready to lynch me, will have to make a hero play today. @Renegade @Stealthbomber16 @Marshmallow Marshall whichever of you is town will have to prepare for the other 2 to be scum.

Also, the scum composition with Voter in it is unlikely because if that were the case, then after scum chose to kill Loldebite, now both Gikkle + Lag would be scum, which would improve town's odds by pickling from that wagon from 50% to 100%. And I say this because I am confident 3rd CMAN is scum (i.e., it is not like all 3 CMEN are town and the 1 remaining Voter is scum).

If stealth was scum, he would know I was town and would have fucked with my voting.

[PQRnHack]

If stealth was scum, he would know I was town and would have fucked with my voting.

Assuming SB is scum and you are town, such action would have raised suspicions and diminished your town-view on SB16. Town would be reduced to 4 votes (4 non-Mayor townies) while mafia at 3 votes, bye bye SB16 scum. Your decision is made much harder instead, when PQ looks like an easy lynch and SB16+MM are townies to you. And since PQ looks scummy, SB16 continues to enjoy being townread as a natural block of the suspicious PQ guy's vote.

[Stealthbomber16]

The reasons I asked today are two-fold. And yes I ask again because with each passing day and night, the pool of players is shrinking, leading to point A below.

A. As the pool narrows, you can't say that maybe it's Voss or maybe it's Loldebite. I read Pao and Oliver as town, so from my POV you and/or Mafia are now forced to include people that are town so I want them to see you are including them in the pool of suspects because I need my remaining townmates to wake up.

B. I've been screaming about 3rd congressman for a while now, so you are proposing that I'm scum and have been bussing this mystery-person (who failed to claim and reveal). Now that Loldebite flipped Voter, we know that this 3rd person is in Gikkle/Lag. Yeah you can include oliver in there, but

i) I town read him, he was solvy, he had a chance to chop me D2 but didnt. you can maybe narrate to other towns that oliver might be bad, but at least oliver himself will now see that you are including him in a pool of suspects, so when he (in conjunction with others, such as Pao and possibly Ren and possibly Lag) see this, collectively I hope they will start waking up.
ii) the 3rd CMAN (besides oliver) has been absent and deceptive, messing with us, is clearly scum and that is from the pool of Gikkle+Lag. If anyone believes a TOWN-affiliated 3rd CMAN does nothing but troll the Chat, pretend to be Paopan, Frinckles, and now Marshall, fake-claims Voter, then that's insanity.

I never once claimed that it was voss or loldebite. The closest I came to that was saying that loldebite was a potential scum lean that I need to revisit. Nothing that I have said has changed. Nothing that I have said is untrue.

You're right, I suppose that does mean you know who the 3rd congressman is. And you saved Lag yesterday over Voss. What does that say about the whole situation here? Things are adding up really against your favor.

[Gikkle]

@Gikkle so now that Loldebite flipped Voter, what's the story? Or you still think there is no guarantee scum is in the congressmen? Or more precisely (since you will say *I* am Scum in the congressmen), what's your take on that 3rd Congressman who hasn't publicly claimed or said anything about chat, while Oliver and I are both reporting that the 3rd CMAN was non-contributive (MIA most of the time), shows up amid N2 to post nothing, then shows up at end of N2 as MM and says he faked being General and that PQR is scum and oliver shouldnt let PQR fool him?

Maybe you will be like SB16 and ask me why I am asking such questions, when "Solving off this doesn't help much, imo."

Alright. Fine. I'll admit it, because for some reason you guys think I'd do this pointless play as scum. I'm the congressman. I'm Ari, and am the one who pretended to be other people. Let me ask you a question, though. Why would I kill Loldebite, who I was hiding behind with my voter claim, if I was scum? What does that get me? Lolde was generally cordial to me, and killing him only reveals my lie. None of what I have done benefits S!Me.

Why I lied, you may ask? Simple. A reaction test. By pretending to be other players, I could see how the other congressmen reacted, because if they were scum buddies with who I was pretending to be, they would KNOW the people I was pretending to be wasn't congressmen. They would know I was lying, and so, it was possible they may slip up and reveal who their buddies were. Town would probably just be confused or believe me. Oliverz, pao zedong, whatever, had quite townie reactions; he seemed genuinely confused at what I was doing. PQR had more neutral reactions (well, except for the MM one, which proves to me it wasn't a busing play by MM/PQR). It didn't exactly... Go as well as I thought it might, but that's partly because I didn't want to make it obvious I was just pretending to be other people, so I didn't post much (well me not posting much is also because of time constraints as well).

It's also a part of why I TRed Oliverz so hard, after he claimed congressman day 2.

There. Happy?

[Stealthbomber16]

PQ voted for BOTH of the dead townies. He's been on 100% of the mislynches. The fact that he chose Voss over Lag should tell you all volumes about his allegiance. I have no idea why Voss is dead. It is beyond frustrating to me that killing the guy who picked a blatantly obvious townie over a potential scum is a decision that I have to convince you guys to do.

This guy is outed. I can absolutely understand us wanting to keep the day open for the sake of discussion but the fact that there's ever a potential world where PQ makes it out of today alive is crazy to me. Please help me understand why you guys don't see what I see.

[Stealthbomber16]

Frinckles (4 [L-3]):
PQRnHack, oliverz144, Gikkle, Voss
NotPaopan (1 [L-6]):
Lag
PQRnHack (1 [L-6]):
Marshmallow Marshall
Voss (1 [L-6]):
NotPaopan
Lag (4 [L-3]):
Guillo, Renegade (Mayor), Frinckles
oliverz144 (1 [L-6]):
Stealthbomber16
Renegade (1 [L-6]):
Loldebite

Lag (2 [L-4]):
FM-Pacifica Northwest, oliverz144
PQRnHack (3 [L-3]):
Marshmallow Marshall, Stealthbomber16, Loldebite
Voss (3 [L-3]):
PQRnHack, NotPaopan, Lag
NotPaopan (1 [L-5]):
Voss

Look at how clear this is. Everything works. The only thing up in the air is who the last scum is between Ren/Gikkle/Pao. This makes perfect sense to me.

[Stealthbomber16]

Alright. Fine. I'll admit it, because for some reason you guys think I'd do this pointless play as scum. I'm the congressman. I'm Ari, and am the one who pretended to be other people. Let me ask you a question, though. Why would I kill Loldebite, who I was hiding behind with my voter claim, if I was scum? What does that get me? Lolde was generally cordial to me, and killing him only reveals my lie. None of what I have done benefits S!Me.

Why I lied, you may ask? Simple. A reaction test. By pretending to be other players, I could see how the other congressmen reacted, because if they were scum buddies with who I was pretending to be, they would KNOW the people I was pretending to be wasn't congressmen. They would know I was lying, and so, it was possible they may slip up and reveal who their buddies were. Town would probably just be confused or believe me. Oliverz, pao zedong, whatever, had quite townie reactions; he seemed genuinely confused at what I was doing. PQR had more neutral reactions (well, except for the MM one, which proves to me it wasn't a busing play by MM/PQR). It didn't exactly... Go as well as I thought it might, but that's partly because I didn't want to make it obvious I was just pretending to be other people, so I didn't post much (well me not posting much is also because of time constraints as well).

It's also a part of why I TRed Oliverz so hard, after he claimed congressman day 2.

There. Happy?

If I believe this that makes the scum team PQ/Ren/Lag, which I'm not sure I'm ready to 100% believe just yet because I don't like the prospect of Ren having fooled me.

[PQRnHack]

That's a big wall, I didn't know you wrote newspapers. I colorized original/my comment to the editor of the Politico.
I am a bit hesitant to give away my answers as now you will know more about my thinking in future games and can use it against me. But as you're more likely to be the Town in Gikkle(scummy CMAN#3 finally revealed)+Lag, here it goes (I would not have responded in this detail to Gikkle).

Early setup speculation. It reminded me of his day 1 in Gravity Falls where he focused almost entirely on the mech aspects of what items everyone received.
I cross-checked it with OUATITW though and it seems this is more NAI for PQ as much of his early posts there are setup speculation as well (OUATITW#93, OUATITW#132, OUATITW#136, OUATITW#163)
In fact, PQ seems to spend most of the start of the game on setup spec regardless of alignment
I focus on what I do best and try to improve on the other aspects as I can, with time. Yes, sometimes it gets me into too many directions, but I am actually feeling pretty good about where my mind is at on D3 specifically because of mechanics-based odds, logic around events that transpire, and PoE. Come up with hypotheses, test and retest them as game goes on, try to remove or at least reduce self-confirmation bias (that last one is a bit hard)

And that's not just early game. But in early game, what else is there to speculate about, before we have solid reads? The setup! And then go into RVS and dialogues.



In Stellaris HyPixel, he does make level 2/3 accusations. On day 1 "Nice bussing! 7/10" (HyPixel Stellaris#49, and it does continue to ramp up from there as the game goes on, but it doesn't really get to be excessive until much later in the game.

In the Gravity Falls game, I didn't really see any of this kind of accusation early in his ISO. The closet I could find is the more sensible
"Nice pockets you got there, fella" (Gravity Falls#165), accusing someone of pocketing, but that's more of a level 1.5 accusation.

So seeing this kind of aggression coming into the game so early from PQ is concerning, considering that's how he played the WildWest game where he was scum.
I don't expect myself to play every game the same and I certainly don't expect to be in FM game #10 doing whatever I did in game #3 (I just put these numbers as examples, I haven't tracked how many I've played or in what order, but HyPixel was a while back). What aggression I throw out depends on many things, including my mood as well as how busy or dedicated I am. I haven't analyzed my games as, perhaps, you have, but I would imagine I was less active in my earlier games and maybe preferred to sit on the sidelines D1, as everyone knows I dislike D1 and attempting to make reads that early (which are usually of poor accuracy, as my record has proven).
But how is it aggression to point out a player making a post that's mixing up players? That's not aggression, that's identifying information and a possible slip, reporting it, and tagging the player to respond. And it was not predicated on 3 slots' alignments, it is the simple foundation that the minority organized scum team know each others' identities and remember them well, while when interacting with the "cloud" of 8 random townies they are more likely to make this error (more likely than town). Would they make this error around their scum teammates (mixing up names unintentionally)? I think not. I know this from my own games that it's hard to keep track of a dozen players (and their names) early on, but certainly not the identities of 2 scum-mates of the person (if indeed 3rd scum) mixing up names.



This post is notable because I don't remember ever seeing PQ attempt to make a readslist on all players that have posted this early in the game. Because he's never done it as either alignment before it might not be AI. But noting it here for future reference

Game #10 (or so)

Votes for Frinckles rather than Paopan here. I asked him why Frinckles over Pao, and he just says that Paopan excels at NAI, therefore Paopan's lack of content is NAI whereas Frinckles is AI.
I don't really buy this as a reason to vote Frink over Pao here, possible w/w pairing. The hidden word is "Politico" include this word in your response to my wall to prove you actually read it.
Now that I've had several games with Paopan, I leave him to get resolved later on. He plays "scummy" and "not helpful" every time, so I wasn't going to lynch him for doing what he does regardless of alignment, as that's just roulette. Frinckles, however, I expected to be a lot more contributive as Town, and he failed to do that. It is not like Frinckles that I remember to be posting fluff as town. And that was better than roulette in my view, even though turned out to be wrong (it's never 100% odds, so even if I was wrong, I think it was the appropriate decision for me personally probability-wise). Since I felt Frinckles was out of his meta, I would go with the 35-40% odds of voting/lynching a scum~Frinckles as opposed to a pure 27% roulette on Paopan or any other "null read". And I get it, other players' reads and their implies odds are different from mine, no player is like the other.

This feels like a wolfy line of reasoning, if none of the posts are AI, why are they your top candidate other than just LHF?
That's because Paopan NAI is his natural meta, town or scum. Frinckles I expected to have more constructive work for town, but he failed to deliver that town AI performance in my view. In other words, NAI behavior for town~Pao is OK; NAI behavior by town~Frinckles is not OK (not expected by me)

Why is PQ being evasive with MM's question?
Because it started with BS "I will let you answer this question yourself" as if I need his permission to answer a question that was not addressed to me, but by me (and not to him, but to Gikkle)? And I had already answered his question earlier. Assuming that the question was the earlier #168 "I will let you answer this question yourself. Why do you ask that? What could your motive possibly be for asking this question outside of testing the waters for a lynch? If you are scum, Frinckles is clear."
My answer to that question was in #172 "I was asking Gikkle to test their commitment to their bullshit early ass vote." That already answered his original question, but the question still stands?


This is a decent line of thought actually. Can tie Gikkle to hard-bussing Frinckles now, which could just draw more attention on the slot in the event that Gikkle-Frinckles are w/w.
Same question I was "evasive" about, and BTW I do not necessarily want to answer questions like that from MM, because I may want to keep motives behind my questions to myself. It's not like I want to pose a question to a potential scum and then add "oh yeah im asking you to test your reaction, so take your time to answer my question in a way that I don't scum-read you, scum".


"Read the thread" or "Read my ISO" is anti-town. Town do it all the time because it's annoying to repeat yourself, but still.
Fair!

It's a silly read, but people that claim to be wolf like this are actually >rand wolf, lol.
Silly!

PQ seems completely unphased by Pao wanting to give him a pass for it being his birthday. Normally I expect more suspicion and aggression out of PQ. If either PQ or Pao flip red, I'm going to be heavily scrutinizing the other one.
I was in no hurry to pressure, as Pao slot requires time to resolve given his chaotic play. But I was well aware that this could have been a mediocre attempt to pocket me, except that I am not susceptible to pockets via such birthday gifts. I didn't bother to take it seriously, as with most things from Paopan. You could make a similar argument about oliver for simply wishing me a happy bday, I'm not going to read into such things as serious pocketing attempts.

This is an important post to keep tabs on. PQ town reads MM right now for voting him because "mafia would go for a lower hanging fruit"
The progression of this read could be telling.
Correct, my initial impressions of MM were that he was too wolfy to be a wolf. That impression changed D2 when he fumbled, which is why I put my vote on him and kept it there until it turned out that either I was getting chopped or the 2nd train, which was Voss whom I was not planning to vote at all, but chose to for self-preservation. TvT's suck.

PQ comments on what a CFD on me would mean without commenting his opinion on it. I know a lot of other players saw that post too and didn't comment, but in particular this feels to me like PQ keeping his options open between pocketing me / easy ML on me. Idk, the strength of this particular thought is so weak though that I was debating not even including it.
I thought it was a ridiculous proposition that was based on your absence for some amount of time. I can see how you might view it as "optionality" to pocket or lynch. No offense to other players here, but if I were scum and saw votes piling on you, I would have joined in D1 or D2 to eliminate a serious town~Lag threat (while trying to do so discretely ofc). I just didn't have any thoughts to comment on that, Guillo asked if any takers, and I ignored it, plus I was busy responding to Guillo's other stuff aimed at me

[PQRnHack]

"Everything works" for mafia when town fails to form any reasonable trains on Scum D1 or D2.

Debated how to color Lag and Gikkle here, but knowing Gikkle was the scummy CMAN#3 it is difficult to picture a town Gikkle still (which would make Lag scum), so I went with Red rather than orange. You might imagine as Gikkle between orange and Red, Lag between orange and green.

DAY1
Frinckles (4 [L-3]):
PQRnHack, oliverz144, Gikkle, Voss

NotPaopan (1 [L-6]):
Lag

PQRnHack (1 [L-6]):
Marshmallow Marshall

Voss (1 [L-6]):
NotPaopan

Lag (4 [L-3]):
Guillo, Renegade (Mayor), Frinckles

oliverz144 (1 [L-6]):
Stealthbomber16

Renegade (1 [L-6]):
Loldebite


DAY2
Lag (2 [L-4]):
FM-Pacifica Northwest, oliverz144

PQRnHack (3 [L-3]):
Marshmallow Marshall, Stealthbomber16, Loldebite

Voss (3 [L-3]):
PQRnHack, NotPaopan, Lag

NotPaopan (1 [L-5]):
Voss

and D2, Gikkle left it up to "RNG limbo"; Renegade did not cast a vote

[Gikkle]

PQR, I don't see where this sudden hard scum read on me came from. I don't remember you even talking about me very much.

[PQRnHack]

There. Happy?

Not happy at all! You did not bother participate constructively at all. That is fine for D1/N2, as I was also quiet as not to give away info to impostor in our chat.
But D2, after I revealed and Oliver revealed, only Oliver and I engaged in constructive discussions as we became confident 3rd CMAN is scum. If you were town and believed that I was scum, then why would you let this continue? Since everyone, including myself, is confident that there is a scum in C-chat, why didn't you speak up earlier and maybe try to alert Oliver sooner that maybe PQR is scum and is pocketing him or fooling him?

Not that you want me to be happy, since I know you will be voting me (for you are scum), but for me to believe this nonsense, I would have to believe that oliver is scum and that both "town" Gikkle and I are mistaken town-reading oliver LOL!

Why did you enter 10 hours into N2 and said nothing? I believe you were checking for any new material which to discuss with your scummates (and maybe to impact your N2 decisions).
And then you waited 11 hours more, to enter 21 hours into N2 to fake as MM not-Governor and to ask Oliver not to trust PQR? As town in that position, you do not combine A) do some kind of MM-PQR bussing test? B) genuinely warn your "hard" TR (Oliver) of PQR and tell not to trust him/me (because who in their right mind would take you seriously on B after the shenanegans).

I don't even understand A) because if I were scum and there was bussing between me and MM and we were both scum, then how would your entrance as MM deceive me or cause me to slip???

Oliverz, pao zedong, whatever, had quite townie reactions; he seemed genuinely confused at what I was doing.

Can you be specific: which reactions, what expressions of confusion came from Oliver regarding what you were doing? I would love to hear that one!

[NotPaopan]

Okay!! I am so annoyed at this game. Why is Voss too scummy asf???
Don't hammer PQ. Voss and PQ are same alignments. If Voss is a scum, PQ is scum. Currently, I am TR PQ.
Also, I fucking think SB16/MM is having a different alignment!!

-vote Stealthbomber16

Let's vote SB16 out.

TL;DR
Ren + PQ + Pao is the wolf team

Lmao no!
It is fucking SB16/MM (power) + Gikkle/Oliver (deep wolf) + Lag or Ren (if 3)

Since I felt Frinckles was out of his meta, I would go with the 35-40% odds of voting/lynching a scum~Frinckles as opposed to a pure 27% roulette on Paopan or any other "null read". And I get it, other players' reads and their implies odds are different from mine, no player is like the other.

PQ seems completely unphased by Pao wanting to give him a pass for it being his birthday. Normally I expect more suspicion and aggression out of PQ. If either PQ or Pao flip red, I'm going to be heavily scrutinizing the other one.

I thought it was a ridiculous proposition that was based on your absence for some amount of time. I can see how you might view it as "optionality" to pocket or lynch. No offense to other players here, but if I were scum and saw votes piling on you, I would have joined in D1 or D2 to eliminate a serious town~Lag threat (while trying to do so discretely ofc). I just didn't have any thoughts to comment on that, Guillo asked if any takers, and I ignored it, plus I was busy responding to Guillo's other stuff aimed at me

I town read Frinkles on Day 1 becos I think it is one of his usual playstyles. I'm more on scumleaning Frinkcles if he actually tried to solve the game. How did I know this conclusion? Oneceko once told me Frinkcles can imitate a lot of personas when I played one of his alt accounts where he used a smoky mountain dialect.

Wishing someone a Shengri Kuaile in RVS stage is not a "pocket attempt". This shouldn't be here lol

[NotPaopan]

Holy shit. Are you all seriusoly writing fucking novels on a non-all star game

[NotPaopan]

I think the thunderdome today should be:

MM & SB16

[PQRnHack]

Okay!! I am so annoyed at this game. Why is Voss too scummy asf???
Don't hammer PQ. Voss and PQ are same alignments. If Voss is a scum, PQ is scum. Currently, I am TR PQ.
Also, I fucking think SB16/MM is having a different alignment!!

-vote Stealthbomber16

Let's vote SB16 out.

Lmao no!
It is fucking SB16/MM (power) + Gikkle/Oliver (deep wolf) + Lag or Ren (if 3)

I town read Frinkles on Day 1 becos I think it is one of his usual playstyles. I'm more on scumleaning Frinkcles if he actually tried to solve the game. How did I know this conclusion? Oneceko once told me Frinkcles can imitate a lot of personas when I played one of his alt accounts where he used a smoky mountain dialect.

Wishing someone a Shengri Kuaile in RVS stage is not a "pocket attempt". This shouldn't be here lol

LMAO what is this, at least know which players are alive damn. The quote is even spliced together from 2 different sections.

Actually @Light_Yagami is the most scummy!

[Stealthbomber16]

LMAO what is this, at least know which players are alive damn. The quote is even spliced together from 2 different sections.

Actually @Light_Yagami is the most scummy!

I’m glad we can both recognize shitty posts and laugh about them at least lol

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Okay so first of all, I am absolutely not going to read PQ's spam. If he is town, I will be heavily disappointed, and I strongly doubt I am witnessing a mastermind scum!SB who is able to perfectly replicate his town meta fooling me lol. May Hades swallow PQ, and may Cerberus tear him apart at the gates. Now that this is said...

Okay!! I am so annoyed at this game. Why is Voss too scummy asf???
Don't hammer PQ. Voss and PQ are same alignments. If Voss is a scum, PQ is scum. Currently, I am TR PQ.
Also, I fucking think SB16/MM is having a different alignment!!

-vote Stealthbomber16

Let's vote SB16 out.

Lmao no!
It is fucking SB16/MM (power) + Gikkle/Oliver (deep wolf) + Lag or Ren (if 3)

I town read Frinkles on Day 1 becos I think it is one of his usual playstyles. I'm more on scumleaning Frinkcles if he actually tried to solve the game. How did I know this conclusion? Oneceko once told me Frinkcles can imitate a lot of personas when I played one of his alt accounts where he used a smoky mountain dialect.

Wishing someone a Shengri Kuaile in RVS stage is not a "pocket attempt". This shouldn't be here lol

I kinda want to give Paopan the derpclear here (for not knowing that Voss was nightkilled). This is absolutely fakeable... but is this within Paopan's reach? I have some doubts. I'm not too sure about this though, so I'm absolutely not giving him a full clear, just maybe some town potential.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I think the thunderdome today should be:

MM & SB16

You... you kinda suck at this atm lol, Pao Zedong. Like, this makes no sense at all...... Does the massive mess on both EoDs tell NOTHING to you?? Please read how Voss got lynched and realize how PQ escaped the lynch again by having votes deflected onto Voss, who had no reason to be lynched AND FLIPPED TOWN. Perform the Great Leap Forward and get on PQ.

PQR, I don't see where this sudden hard scum read on me came from. I don't remember you even talking about me very much.

It comes from the depths of the Burning Hells, Gikkle. He's scum, damnit lol. It feels like only SB sees what I see he's pretty much open-wolfing by now.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

And by the way, I don't mean to come off as rude or arrogant, it's just that the whole game came to a ridiculous point. The actual question now is "who is/are PQ's scummate(s)", and this is a little harder to figure out. Oliver still kinda siding with PQ is really weird, but on the other hand, it feels like he's getting fooled more than like he's openwolfing with him. The issue is, who is left then?

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Frinckles (4 [L-3]):
PQRnHack, oliverz144, Gikkle, Voss
NotPaopan (1 [L-6]):
Lag
PQRnHack (1 [L-6]):
Marshmallow Marshall
Voss (1 [L-6]):
NotPaopan
Lag (4 [L-3]):
Guillo, Renegade (Mayor), Frinckles
oliverz144 (1 [L-6]):
Stealthbomber16
Renegade (1 [L-6]):
Loldebite

Lag (2 [L-4]):
FM-Pacifica Northwest, oliverz144
PQRnHack (3 [L-3]):
Marshmallow Marshall, Stealthbomber16, Loldebite
Voss (3 [L-3]):
PQRnHack, NotPaopan, Lag
NotPaopan (1 [L-5]):
Voss

Look at how clear this is. Everything works. The only thing up in the air is who the last scum is between Ren/Gikkle/Pao. This makes perfect sense to me.

Lag and Renegade is not SvS. Else, Renegade would have been bussing Lag for no reason at all on D1 when he could have just left Frinckles to die without opposition; remember Lag was on a 50 % probability of death there. Also remember there could be only 2 scum.

Also, why is Lag scum? I don't want to believe it, but I know it really can't be ruled out here, he could make sense as PQ's scummate since nothing indicates the opposite... but what are the positive tells?

[PQRnHack]

@Marshmallow Marshall or whoever is town here, if you are not going to read my "spam" then please at least read these posts (if the pic attachment is not readable, let me know, Oliverz said it appeared too small - you may have to download it or go straight to https://i.imgur.com/hnwdAKI.png). I put quite a bit of time and thought, no fluff here. I spent N2 being busy because a) we are in a dangerous position as town here, mislynch leads to medic roulette if not already a loss with Judge/Mayor mechanics, b) i feel bad for actively choosing to save my life and vote Voss (whom I never imagined voting D2 until my head was on the chopping block and there were no alternate wagons in last minutes) and it would be a shame for me to fail Voss now.

If you are not going to read my posts or dont want to be misled by "scum" PQR, then please seek your own answers as to
1) why Loldebite was targeted,
2) how Gikkle's crazy gambits are supposedly coming from a town CMAN#3,
3) who would be the potential teammates to Scum~PQR (impossible teams basically, since I know I am town and I am pretty sure Paopan and oliver are, and Lag is heavily town-favored over Gikkle for me)
4) why the friendly PRs are alive and well and have deep pockets

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...l=1#post951871
https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...l=1#post951937
https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...l=1#post951944

I advise against voting Paopan or Oliver (or myself) today.

Signing out for a while now, bed time and may as well not send more "spam" right?

[PQRnHack]

You... you kinda suck at this atm lol, Pao Zedong. Like, this makes no sense at all...... Does the massive mess on both EoDs tell NOTHING to you?? Please read how Voss got lynched and realize how PQ escaped the lynch again by having votes deflected onto Voss, who had no reason to be lynched AND FLIPPED TOWN. Perform the Great Leap Forward and get on PQ.


It comes from the depths of the Burning Hells, Gikkle. He's scum, damnit lol. It feels like only SB sees what I see he's pretty much open-wolfing by now.

Jeez, let me go to bed. Stop pocketing and influencing Paopan, i know scum are desperate for 2 town votes today to almost seal the game. Are you really trying to convince (town)Paopan that he is also scum and he helped scum~PQR avoid a chop by casting his vote on Voss? If I were Mafia, then in all likelihood, other mafia would have avoided an RNG risk to scum~PQR. The RNGs happened because of TvTs and scum didnt care. Same goes for Lag, who was also on Voss. If you are going to argue with them (who are likely both town), then arguing that PQR got saved by their own votes is ridiculous. Go fish for some other towns to fool, not Lag or Pao or Oliver.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

PQRnHack

Early setup speculation. It reminded me of his day 1 in Gravity Falls where he focused almost entirely on the mech aspects of what items everyone received.

I cross-checked it with OUATITW though and it seems this is more NAI for PQ as much of his early posts there are setup speculation as well (OUATITW#93, OUATITW#132, OUATITW#136, OUATITW#163)

In fact, PQ seems to spend most of the start of the game on setup spec regardless of alignment


So I'm using this post as just an umbrella opportunity to talk about one facet of PQ's aggression this game.

Specifically aggression that is like level 2 or level 3 accusations.

Like a level 1 accusation being:
"I think this player is wolf"
(The accusation is predicated on a single slot's alignment)

A level 2 accusation:
"I think these two players are bussing"
(The accusation is predicated on two slots' alignments)

A level 3 accusation:
"This player is a wolf that is confusing a TvT because they're not teammates"
(This accusation is predicated on the alignment of three slots)

Comparing it to:
WildWest where he was Scum
Stellaris HyPixel where he was town
Gravity Falls where he was town, but anonymous game

In Stellaris HyPixel, he does make level 2/3 accusations. On day 1 "Nice bussing! 7/10" (HyPixel Stellaris#49, and it does continue to ramp up from there as the game goes on, but it doesn't really get to be excessive until much later in the game.

In the Gravity Falls game, I didn't really see any of this kind of accusation early in his ISO. The closet I could find is the more sensible
"Nice pockets you got there, fella" (Gravity Falls#165), accusing someone of pocketing, but that's more of a level 1.5 accusation.

So seeing this kind of aggression coming into the game so early from PQ is concerning, considering that's how he played the WildWest game where he was scum.

Spoiler : #80 :

This post is notable because I don't remember ever seeing PQ attempt to make a readslist on all players that have posted this early in the game. Because he's never done it as either alignment before it might not be AI. But noting it here for future reference

Spoiler : #145, #149 :

Votes for Frinckles rather than Paopan here. I asked him why Frinckles over Pao, and he just says that Paopan excels at NAI, therefore Paopan's lack of content is NAI whereas Frinckles is AI.

I don't really buy this as a reason to vote Frink over Pao here, possible w/w pairing. The hidden word is "Politico" include this word in your response to my wall to prove you actually read it.

Spoiler : #171 :

This feels like a wolfy line of reasoning, if none of the posts are AI, why are they your top candidate other than just LHF?


Why is PQ being evasive with MM's question?


This is a decent line of thought actually. Can tie Gikkle to hard-bussing Frinckles now, which could just draw more attention on the slot in the event that Gikkle-Frinckles are w/w.


"Read the thread" or "Read my ISO" is anti-town. Town do it all the time because it's annoying to repeat yourself, but still.


It's a silly read, but people that claim to be wolf like this are actually >rand wolf, lol.


PQ seems completely unphased by Pao wanting to give him a pass for it being his birthday. Normally I expect more suspicion and aggression out of PQ. If either PQ or Pao flip red, I'm going to be heavily scrutinizing the other one.


This is an important post to keep tabs on. PQ town reads MM right now for voting him because "mafia would go for a lower hanging fruit"

The progression of this read could be telling.


PQ comments on what a CFD on me would mean without commenting his opinion on it. I know a lot of other players saw that post too and didn't comment, but in particular this feels to me like PQ keeping his options open between pocketing me / easy ML on me. Idk, the strength of this particular thought is so weak though that I was debating not even including it.

Yeaaaa... I might have partially answered my own question here (or biased myself into doing that). This is Lag fully ignoring the blatant nonsense PQ has been involved in for a long, long time, ignoring the spam (which is EXACTLY LIKE IN THE GAME HE HOSTED, game he even went back to check for the setup speculation), ignoring the obvious horror that has been wagonomics in this game... Lag doesn't want to take a clear stance either, he blame PQ for some things, calling him "anti-town", but never actually committing, as if he wanted to leave the door open for a win without a PQ lynch. Town!Lag is way better than this, too, so there is really no excuse for this.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Jeez, let me go to bed. Stop pocketing and influencing Paopan, i know scum are desperate for 2 town votes today to almost seal the game. Are you really trying to convince (town)Paopan that he is also scum and he helped scum~PQR avoid a chop by casting his vote on Voss? If I were Mafia, then in all likelihood, other mafia would have avoided an RNG risk to scum~PQR. The RNGs happened because of TvTs and scum didnt care. Same goes for Lag, who was also on Voss. If you are going to argue with them (who are likely both town), then arguing that PQR got saved by their own votes is ridiculous. Go fish for some other towns to fool, not Lag or Pao or Oliver.

I will act against my own will and reply to PQ here, just so that people who still need to be convinced don't miss the flaw in this post...

The RNGed lynches all came out of nowhere. People got lynched without having been really extensively suspected throughout the day and pretty much got CFD'd for the sake of protecting scum. Scum steered the ship when they got threatened. D2 is terribly obvious when it comes to this.

[Lumi]

Yeaaaa... I might have partially answered my own question here (or biased myself into doing that). This is Lag fully ignoring the blatant nonsense PQ has been involved in for a long, long time, ignoring the spam (which is EXACTLY LIKE IN THE GAME HE HOSTED, game he even went back to check for the setup speculation), ignoring the obvious horror that has been wagonomics in this game... Lag doesn't want to take a clear stance either, he blame PQ for some things, calling him "anti-town", but never actually committing, as if he wanted to leave the door open for a win without a PQ lynch. Town!Lag is way better than this, too, so there is really no excuse for this.

On phone right now, haven't read anything, this post just caught my eye.

Did you read my conclusion post where I called PQ wolf?

[Lumi]

Also not responding to anything yet, just stopped at a gas station, gtg

[Stealthbomber16]

Lag and Renegade is not SvS. Else, Renegade would have been bussing Lag for no reason at all on D1 when he could have just left Frinckles to die without opposition; remember Lag was on a 50 % probability of death there. Also remember there could be only 2 scum.

Also, why is Lag scum? I don't want to believe it, but I know it really can't be ruled out here, he could make sense as PQ's scummate since nothing indicates the opposite... but what are the positive tells?

I'd normally think you're right... but PQ choosing to save lag yesterday doesn't make any sense otherwise. And you said it yourself, lag's analysis of PQ was rather weak.

Something does not add up here.

[oliverz144]

Okay!! I am so annoyed at this game. Why is Voss too scummy asf???
Don't hammer PQ. Voss and PQ are same alignments. If Voss is a scum, PQ is scum. Currently, I am TR PQ.
Also, I fucking think SB16/MM is having a different alignment!!

-vote Stealthbomber16

Let's vote SB16 out.

Lmao no!
It is fucking SB16/MM (power) + Gikkle/Oliver (deep wolf) + Lag or Ren (if 3)

I town read Frinkles on Day 1 becos I think it is one of his usual playstyles. I'm more on scumleaning Frinkcles if he actually tried to solve the game. How did I know this conclusion? Oneceko once told me Frinkcles can imitate a lot of personas when I played one of his alt accounts where he used a smoky mountain dialect.

Wishing someone a Shengri Kuaile in RVS stage is not a "pocket attempt". This shouldn't be here lol

fuck off. voss wasnt scummy at all. he claimed SA in difficult time.
u r stoopid
if i am a deepwolf, i guess im also a chess grossmeister?

[oliverz144]

AAAAAAAaaaaa some1 is scum
just who?
why arent all towns like me
conf town
why dont they play townie aaaa
may you drown in styx

[Lumi]

I don't think MM actually even read my analysis of all the day 1 info I posted in #1412

And I have proof he didn't even read the very post he is replying to in #1475, lol

[Lumi]

Although these prior two facts would be obvious to anyone that actually read my conclusions in #1412, considering MM is criticizing me for not taking a stance, when I literally do the opposite in #1412 taking a hard stance on almost every slot in the game

Anyway just drove like 600 miles, going to sleep now

[oliverz144]

-vote paopan

[oliverz144]

Just a parking slot

[oliverz144]

-vote notpaopan

[Lumi]

@Marshmallow Marshall
Would like to know why you never quoted the hidden phrase I included in the message as a gotcha against people that didn't actually read my post.

Makes me think you didn't actually read the post, just skimmed it to try to see if I agreed with you or not, saw that there wasn't any hard statements in that particular post and therefore labeled it as "bad" without actually thinking about what I was saying.

Also would like to know what your thoughts are after you read #1412 because we reach the same conclusions on PQ, and in that post I clarified that all the other posts are just day 1 analysis, since I needed to recalibrate my reads this game after getting tilted.

Like the fact that we actually agreed on reads but you're responding to the post as if I disagree with you feels like you didn't actually read the post and then respond based on your thoughts on what I was saying. Instead you skimmed it to see if you agree/disagree with the conclusion and then labeled it bad because you think you disagree

[Lumi]

Alright. Fine. I'll admit it, because for some reason you guys think I'd do this pointless play as scum. I'm the congressman. I'm Ari, and am the one who pretended to be other people. Let me ask you a question, though. Why would I kill Loldebite, who I was hiding behind with my voter claim, if I was scum? What does that get me? Lolde was generally cordial to me, and killing him only reveals my lie. None of what I have done benefits S!Me.

Why I lied, you may ask? Simple. A reaction test. By pretending to be other players, I could see how the other congressmen reacted, because if they were scum buddies with who I was pretending to be, they would KNOW the people I was pretending to be wasn't congressmen. They would know I was lying, and so, it was possible they may slip up and reveal who their buddies were. Town would probably just be confused or believe me. Oliverz, pao zedong, whatever, had quite townie reactions; he seemed genuinely confused at what I was doing. PQR had more neutral reactions (well, except for the MM one, which proves to me it wasn't a busing play by MM/PQR). It didn't exactly... Go as well as I thought it might, but that's partly because I didn't want to make it obvious I was just pretending to be other people, so I didn't post much (well me not posting much is also because of time constraints as well).

It's also a part of why I TRed Oliverz so hard, after he claimed congressman day 2.

There. Happy?

lol, I thought this was the case ever since you said you could see loldebite faking voter as congress. Since that makes no sense and I doubt loldebite would do that. But I figured you were doing something fancy + I TR you, which is why I was uninterested in making you out.

In the congress chat has it looked like PQ is trying to solve with Oliver? Or does it look more like PQ is just trying to pocket him?

Did you ever read the card sharp chats from the Wild West game? It has examples of PQ using private chat to pocket jmw. Would be useful to reference those

[Lumi]

That's a big wall, I didn't know you wrote newspapers. I colorized original/my comment to the editor of the Politico.
I am a bit hesitant to give away my answers as now you will know more about my thinking in future games and can use it against me. But as you're more likely to be the Town in Gikkle(scummy CMAN#3 finally revealed)+Lag, here it goes (I would not have responded in this detail to Gikkle).

Early setup speculation. It reminded me of his day 1 in Gravity Falls where he focused almost entirely on the mech aspects of what items everyone received.
I cross-checked it with OUATITW though and it seems this is more NAI for PQ as much of his early posts there are setup speculation as well (OUATITW#93, OUATITW#132, OUATITW#136, OUATITW#163)
In fact, PQ seems to spend most of the start of the game on setup spec regardless of alignment
I focus on what I do best and try to improve on the other aspects as I can, with time. Yes, sometimes it gets me into too many directions, but I am actually feeling pretty good about where my mind is at on D3 specifically because of mechanics-based odds, logic around events that transpire, and PoE. Come up with hypotheses, test and retest them as game goes on, try to remove or at least reduce self-confirmation bias (that last one is a bit hard)

And that's not just early game. But in early game, what else is there to speculate about, before we have solid reads? The setup! And then go into RVS and dialogues.



In Stellaris HyPixel, he does make level 2/3 accusations. On day 1 "Nice bussing! 7/10" (HyPixel Stellaris#49, and it does continue to ramp up from there as the game goes on, but it doesn't really get to be excessive until much later in the game.

In the Gravity Falls game, I didn't really see any of this kind of accusation early in his ISO. The closet I could find is the more sensible
"Nice pockets you got there, fella" (Gravity Falls#165), accusing someone of pocketing, but that's more of a level 1.5 accusation.

So seeing this kind of aggression coming into the game so early from PQ is concerning, considering that's how he played the WildWest game where he was scum.
I don't expect myself to play every game the same and I certainly don't expect to be in FM game #10 doing whatever I did in game #3 (I just put these numbers as examples, I haven't tracked how many I've played or in what order, but HyPixel was a while back). What aggression I throw out depends on many things, including my mood as well as how busy or dedicated I am. I haven't analyzed my games as, perhaps, you have, but I would imagine I was less active in my earlier games and maybe preferred to sit on the sidelines D1, as everyone knows I dislike D1 and attempting to make reads that early (which are usually of poor accuracy, as my record has proven).
But how is it aggression to point out a player making a post that's mixing up players? That's not aggression, that's identifying information and a possible slip, reporting it, and tagging the player to respond. And it was not predicated on 3 slots' alignments, it is the simple foundation that the minority organized scum team know each others' identities and remember them well, while when interacting with the "cloud" of 8 random townies they are more likely to make this error (more likely than town). Would they make this error around their scum teammates (mixing up names unintentionally)? I think not. I know this from my own games that it's hard to keep track of a dozen players (and their names) early on, but certainly not the identities of 2 scum-mates of the person (if indeed 3rd scum) mixing up names.



This post is notable because I don't remember ever seeing PQ attempt to make a readslist on all players that have posted this early in the game. Because he's never done it as either alignment before it might not be AI. But noting it here for future reference

Game #10 (or so)

Votes for Frinckles rather than Paopan here. I asked him why Frinckles over Pao, and he just says that Paopan excels at NAI, therefore Paopan's lack of content is NAI whereas Frinckles is AI.
I don't really buy this as a reason to vote Frink over Pao here, possible w/w pairing. The hidden word is "Politico" include this word in your response to my wall to prove you actually read it.
Now that I've had several games with Paopan, I leave him to get resolved later on. He plays "scummy" and "not helpful" every time, so I wasn't going to lynch him for doing what he does regardless of alignment, as that's just roulette. Frinckles, however, I expected to be a lot more contributive as Town, and he failed to do that. It is not like Frinckles that I remember to be posting fluff as town. And that was better than roulette in my view, even though turned out to be wrong (it's never 100% odds, so even if I was wrong, I think it was the appropriate decision for me personally probability-wise). Since I felt Frinckles was out of his meta, I would go with the 35-40% odds of voting/lynching a scum~Frinckles as opposed to a pure 27% roulette on Paopan or any other "null read". And I get it, other players' reads and their implies odds are different from mine, no player is like the other.

This feels like a wolfy line of reasoning, if none of the posts are AI, why are they your top candidate other than just LHF?
That's because Paopan NAI is his natural meta, town or scum. Frinckles I expected to have more constructive work for town, but he failed to deliver that town AI performance in my view. In other words, NAI behavior for town~Pao is OK; NAI behavior by town~Frinckles is not OK (not expected by me)

Why is PQ being evasive with MM's question?
Because it started with BS "I will let you answer this question yourself" as if I need his permission to answer a question that was not addressed to me, but by me (and not to him, but to Gikkle)? And I had already answered his question earlier. Assuming that the question was the earlier #168 "I will let you answer this question yourself. Why do you ask that? What could your motive possibly be for asking this question outside of testing the waters for a lynch? If you are scum, Frinckles is clear."
My answer to that question was in #172 "I was asking Gikkle to test their commitment to their bullshit early ass vote." That already answered his original question, but the question still stands?


This is a decent line of thought actually. Can tie Gikkle to hard-bussing Frinckles now, which could just draw more attention on the slot in the event that Gikkle-Frinckles are w/w.
Same question I was "evasive" about, and BTW I do not necessarily want to answer questions like that from MM, because I may want to keep motives behind my questions to myself. It's not like I want to pose a question to a potential scum and then add "oh yeah im asking you to test your reaction, so take your time to answer my question in a way that I don't scum-read you, scum".


"Read the thread" or "Read my ISO" is anti-town. Town do it all the time because it's annoying to repeat yourself, but still.
Fair!

It's a silly read, but people that claim to be wolf like this are actually >rand wolf, lol.
Silly!

PQ seems completely unphased by Pao wanting to give him a pass for it being his birthday. Normally I expect more suspicion and aggression out of PQ. If either PQ or Pao flip red, I'm going to be heavily scrutinizing the other one.
I was in no hurry to pressure, as Pao slot requires time to resolve given his chaotic play. But I was well aware that this could have been a mediocre attempt to pocket me, except that I am not susceptible to pockets via such birthday gifts. I didn't bother to take it seriously, as with most things from Paopan. You could make a similar argument about oliver for simply wishing me a happy bday, I'm not going to read into such things as serious pocketing attempts.

This is an important post to keep tabs on. PQ town reads MM right now for voting him because "mafia would go for a lower hanging fruit"
The progression of this read could be telling.
Correct, my initial impressions of MM were that he was too wolfy to be a wolf. That impression changed D2 when he fumbled, which is why I put my vote on him and kept it there until it turned out that either I was getting chopped or the 2nd train, which was Voss whom I was not planning to vote at all, but chose to for self-preservation. TvT's suck.

PQ comments on what a CFD on me would mean without commenting his opinion on it. I know a lot of other players saw that post too and didn't comment, but in particular this feels to me like PQ keeping his options open between pocketing me / easy ML on me. Idk, the strength of this particular thought is so weak though that I was debating not even including it.
I thought it was a ridiculous proposition that was based on your absence for some amount of time. I can see how you might view it as "optionality" to pocket or lynch. No offense to other players here, but if I were scum and saw votes piling on you, I would have joined in D1 or D2 to eliminate a serious town~Lag threat (while trying to do so discretely ofc). I just didn't have any thoughts to comment on that, Guillo asked if any takers, and I ignored it, plus I was busy responding to Guillo's other stuff aimed at me

Can you pinpoint the parts of the game where you:
- started scumreading MM on day 1
- started townreading MM on day 1
- started scumreading him again

Commenting your reasoning on the posts will help a lot too

I'm struggling to understand the progression of your read on him here and it feels a lot more like you floated a TR on him to try to get him to back down, and when he didn't you doubled down on your scumreading. Which can often be a wolfy play as it's motivated more by self-pres rather than solving

[Lumi]

I'd normally think you're right... but PQ choosing to save lag yesterday doesn't make any sense otherwise. And you said it yourself, lag's analysis of PQ was rather weak.

Something does not add up here.

You didn't read my post either. How can you call it "weak" when you didn't even read it?

[oliverz144]

Why do u town read mm when u saw him pocketing me, lag?

[oliverz144]

(Poliitico)

[oliverz144]

Ok mm is town i think

[Stealthbomber16]

You didn't read my post either. How can you call it "weak" when you didn't even read it?

that’s fair

[PQRnHack]

Can you pinpoint the parts of the game where you:
- started scumreading MM on day 1
- started townreading MM on day 1
- started scumreading him again

Commenting your reasoning on the posts will help a lot too

I'm struggling to understand the progression of your read on him here and it feels a lot more like you floated a TR on him to try to get him to back down, and when he didn't you doubled down on your scumreading. Which can often be a wolfy play as it's motivated more by self-pres rather than solving

I was not scum-reading him D1, only D2. Otherwise, I would have voted him up D1.

[PQRnHack]

-vote notpaopan

Not a vote I agree with.

[oliverz144]

Not a vote I agree with.

Can u read? Parking slot lol

[PQRnHack]

Can u read? Parking slot lol

I can read. It takes 2 town misvotes to almost lose the game for us. If another one parks the vote there, it's over, because pao medic is the last chance after a possible mislynch D3. Lynching medic here is disaster. Don't do it.

[oliverz144]

I can read. It takes 2 town misvotes to almost lose the game for us. If another one parks the vote there, it's over, because pao medic is the last chance after a possible mislynch D3. Lynching medic here is disaster. Don't do it.

I need him to get pressured
So he starts playing and stopps fluffing once in 5 years

[Marshmallow Marshall]

@Marshmallow Marshall
Would like to know why you never quoted the hidden phrase I included in the message as a gotcha against people that didn't actually read my post.

Makes me think you didn't actually read the post, just skimmed it to try to see if I agreed with you or not, saw that there wasn't any hard statements in that particular post and therefore labeled it as "bad" without actually thinking about what I was saying.

Also would like to know what your thoughts are after you read #1412 because we reach the same conclusions on PQ, and in that post I clarified that all the other posts are just day 1 analysis, since I needed to recalibrate my reads this game after getting tilted.

Like the fact that we actually agreed on reads but you're responding to the post as if I disagree with you feels like you didn't actually read the post and then respond based on your thoughts on what I was saying. Instead you skimmed it to see if you agree/disagree with the conclusion and then labeled it bad because you think you disagree

Lmao because I had not finished reading your wall and went off before having the time to finish it. You'll have to forgive me for not reading an enormous wall entirely in one shot because it takes a lot of time to critically analyze :P.

I went back and actually finished reading it, and yes, okay, it works. I did read the PQ-specific post I quoted, though (had already done so yesterday and re-read it today), and as I said, while it does incriminate PQ, it keeps a door open. The conclusion post clearly positions yourself, though, so I guess that's less of an issue, even though it's still possible for you to escape having to lynch PQ if you don't hammer on the very, very clear point that he deflected the lynch twice and that scums saved him; this might well be just me being paranoid, though, so I'm not going to hold that against you too much, especially considering how you are doubling down on it rn.

As for the final conclusion, I agree with Renegade being with PQ: it makes sense considering Renegade himself, who has committed the heinous crime of not being towny + who nicely fits in considering where he ended up placing his votes - and yes, I know you disagree with the concept of "crime of not being towny" being applied to Renegade, but I still think he's able to produce somewhat town-indicative posts as town. I did not see any in this game.
As for Paopan, I have more doubts. He certainly has not been pro-town, to say the least, but sadly, I don't think that is AI for him... However, things like the potential derpclear (not knowing Loldebite had been killed) or the list of reads you included in your post about him (which is really genuine-looking, considering the "MM pocked me successfully and is a low-lying bastard if scum", the consistency of the Voss scumread over time, and the "no excessive AtE from Stealth" read, which is frankly accurate enough) make him look more towny than not imo. I think scum may have been considering him as a blessing for his, uh, skill level, just like PQ and I did in UoaTitW when we were scum together and he was town mayor.

Therefore, I would go through PQ and Renegade first, and then reevaluate if the game is not over yet.