S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II

**Lumi** · December 18th, 2021, 01:11 PM

The wall to end all walls incoming

**MartinGG99** · December 18th, 2021, 01:11 PM

Apologies for the mix-up.

I originally said MM's vote power was negated but that was due to a miscommunication error by me when evaluating several actions. It is supposed to be PQ's.

Please do not claim anything related to this.

**Lumi** · December 18th, 2021, 01:11 PM

Marshmallow Marshall
So a general comment on MM:
MM is a slot that I think has had the biggest move for me this game. He started out playing in an uncharacteristic way that I'd not seen from him before combined with my getting OMGUS-tilted onto him had me appraising his slot as much scummier than I think I should have on a second reading.

Guillo's post in #97

Spoiler : #97 :

contextualizes this very nicely as the same fire I was scum-reading MM for was probably invoked by Guillo asking MM what happened to it.

===

Spoiler : #28 :

So this is where I started to get tilted because while oliver's post clears oliver as town. MM has played more than enough games to know that the reasoning oliver was using is way off - my town meta range is much wider than just immediate setup spec, and MM has played in the games with me to know that.

Retrospectively this reads more just like MM joking around though rather than an AI post like I initially thought.

Spoiler : #95 :

This post is just whatever. It basically boils down to just calling PQ's reads wrong because things other players have done is NAI.

Spoiler : #154 :

This was another post that in retrospect tilted me and led me to scum-read MM when I probably shouldn't have. Since this post is fine.

The line "you're not the epitome of townness as of right now" is simultaneously tilting because it's an effective wolf tactic to make an otherwise obv-town player appear scummy while also setting much higher standards for a player to meet than all the other players in the game.

But reading it a second time... I think MM just meant it as compliment lmao

Spoiler : #162 :

I feel bad since I completely missed the finer details of this post about PQ initially. The points on PQ are very good. Agnostic of whether they're right or not, they seem to be coming from a townie POV.

Spoiler : #168 :

The first point feels a little bit leading and scum-painty: "I will let you answer this question yourself. Why do you ask that? What could your motive possibly be for asking this question outside of testing the waters for a lynch?"

Spoiler : #179 :

Not the best answer, and Gikkle makes a very good point. This is now the second (or third?) time this game that MM answered questions for other people. Doing that is wolfy as it's usually either a wolf trying to protect weaker teammates, or a wolf trying to pocket town by making them feel like someone is defending them. MM might get a pass on this though since he's just a helpful person.

Spoiler : #194 :

Mind-meld with MM on why Oliver is just town

Spoiler : #296 :

Good post.

Spoiler : #298 :

MM and PQ definitely not w/w

Spoiler : #302 :

Yes, lmao

Spoiler : #307 :

B)

Spoiler : #332 :

I like how MM is following up with these questions on PQ. It shows he actually cares about the answers rather than just asking them for content creation purposes.

**Lumi** · December 18th, 2021, 01:11 PM

NotPaopan

Spoiler : #21 :

His other openers:
WildWest#116: (TOWN)
Mwuahaha...

It is I, Lord Mayor Paopan.

MITMA#123: (WOLF)
Hola everyone! I was supposed to introduce myself.. but I prefer to keep myself anonymous.

AllStars#30: (WOLF)
It is I, Paopan.
Aight let's ride the train. All aboard!! Chooo choooo!!

-vote BananaCucho

LastHope#357: (WOLF)
Sorry I'm late, I didn't know the game already started. Needed to view 7 pages while playing arcade. Anyways, I'm a confirmed virgin in this mode, and I'm giving it away to you guys.

Now I certainly don't think Paopan is so weak of an FM player that he literally gives away his alignment in his opening post, and this is mostly confirmed, his opener this game is most simlar to WildWest#116 and AllStars#30 - so largely NAI.

Ultimately I think the all-over-the place style of play Paopan has is largely NAI.

Spoiler : #228, #229 :

Pao's first real post of the game... and it has basically no content other than CCing Guillo's medic claim and votes Guillo, presumably because he claimed Medic?

Spoiler : #235 :

Pretty surface level content from Pao still so far

Spoiler : #241 :

This reads list is actually pretty good. It looks like he's drawing from previous game experiences and incorporating them into his thoughts here rather than just pulling stuff out of thin air.

The Gikkle read seems to be based on his T/T tunnel experience from Wild West
The PQ read seems to be based on PQ's extremely aggressive play from Wild West
The oliver read seems to be based on the fact that oliver opened the game very differently from the Wild West game where he was town
SB16 read seems to be based on him playing against SB16 from way back in the All Stars game

The conclusions are pretty surface level, and some of the reads are just memes. But considering Paopan's baseline content level, this is actually really good.

Spoiler : #244 :

I didn't like this post when I first read it because it felt like he was indirectly shading me. But eh, it's a fine post.

Spoiler : #316 :

These are good points coming from Pao's slot given his usual playstyle.

The comment on PQ though feels like an odd reason to spare someone, but then again, he wanted to spare Ren just for rolling the same role that Pao had in the previous game. Still, if either of them flip red, I'm going to be heavily scrutinizing the other.

**Lumi** · December 18th, 2021, 01:11 PM

Gikkle

Spoiler : #50 :

The two times I've seen Gikkle wolf were when we were wolves together in HyPixel Stellaris mafia, and when he was a wolf that subbed out on day 1 in MU Anime World 2.

This post reminds me more of Gikkle's approach to SoD that I saw from him in MITMA than either of those two wolf games. But it's extremely easy for a wolf Gikkle to fake this.

Spoiler : #157 :

This is a townie post for Gikkle. I believe I've said before that Gikkle as town is just inherently suspicious. I used the word paranoid before, but he didn't like that word.

But this is a good example of the suspicion I expect from town~Gikkle, basically being contrarian to everything stated in the thread thus far.

Spoiler : #176 :

I doubt Gikkle - MM are w/w off of this. If MM is wolf, he's trying to pocket oliver, why would Gikkle interfere?

Spoiler : #209 :

This is a good post, shares the same thoughts I had on the re-read on MM trying to pocket oliver. Definitely not MM/Gikkle as w/w

Spoiler : #223 :

Guillo asks Gikkle a good question, wonder what Gikkle will respond. (Edited in later: Gikkle never did respond. Probably just missed the question, shame. I think a lack of response is NAI though)

Spoiler : #234 :

Originally Posted by Gikkle

No, I think you could be right and be town, but you trying to put words in Oliverz mouth (#169, #179) was very strange. #179 was also strange with the comments that it was "obvious he was not literal" because it "would not make sense", and later when I asked about whether that was dismissing the possibility of S!Oliverz doing it for scummy reasoning, you brought up an extreme scenario (#194, your point about Oliverz having to be a lunatic if he thought he could get Lag lynched from the beginning of the day. Not sure if this is just because you misinterpreted what I was saying? You never responded to me correcting you about what I meant by "early aggression") to dismiss my whole point about the possible justification S!Oliverz may have had where it would make sense for them to make a literal post like that so early on.

Your prior explanation for why Oliverz was town ( #168 ) didn't make much sense either. Here is what you said:

"There is a tone change in Lag. Pointing it out, starting the discussion strongly, making people take a stance about his read, all of this is towny and does not seem to be accidental. Oliver gets a townread from me for this; he's doing what a townie should do at gamestart, and I tend to start my town games in a similar manner whenever it's possible and I feel like getting into action quickly. "

This does not match up with what Oliverz has actually done.

"Pointing (Lag's alleged change in tone) out" - This is Marshmallow putting words in Oliverz mouth, which is what we talked about afterwards and which he acknowledges as a possibility in #179. The only thing Oliverz did publicly say was that Lag wasn't doing a full mechanical plan and "being smart town" like they were last game. Oliverz did not point out any kind of change in tone or anything like that.
"Starting the discussion strongly" - Strongly worded, sure. I wouldn't call it "starting the discussion strongly" though, as it wasn't strong in it's structure, considering he doesn't talk about it all after that and the explanation is pretty lackluster.
"Making people take a stance about his read" - Never happened.

This is just a very strange read altogether and seems a lot like you're trying to justify something you don't really believe in. Maybe I'm wrong? It's just weird on the surface and your answers so far have only raised more questions.

Sorry if this doesn't make much sense or is jumbled, I'm a bit tired.

I don't think I've ever seen Gikkle make a wall like this so early as wolf before, but I'm pretty sure I've seen him do it several times as town (You'll just have to trust me on this one, cross-referencing multiple games takes forever, lol)

Spoiler : #297, 304 :

The extent to which Gikkle is hyper-focusing on this on day 1 is starting to get frustrating. Gikkle's points are good, but oliver is just town.

Spoiler : #323 :

Naked vote on MM is weird. Again, MM/Gikkle basically never w/w here.

Spoiler : High 300's Gikkle vs Guillo :

Guillo thinks Gikkle is scum-painting him, this looks more like Gikkle's usual suspicions and scrutinizing playstyle as town.

Spoiler : #430 :

Gikkle's whole approach to trying to figure out if Guillo was town-slipping or not feels very genuine

**Lumi** · December 18th, 2021, 01:11 PM

Loldebite

Spoiler : #113 :

A novel opening for loldebite considering the only other game he played he showed up 24 hours late, lol

Spoiler : #122 :

In retrospect, this post is concerning.
Loldebite insisting that the power roles claim, and yet I know that either him or Gikkle is lying about being voter as a congressman. If Loldebite is actually the congressman, then he looks very, very bad for this post.

Spoiler : #267-273 :

Such... empty posts. Feels like loldebite if lying under the radar this game whereas he felt much more confrontational in the Wild West game

Spoiler : #283 :

After some more empty posts, he gets to asking oliver some thoughts on other players. It's okay I guess, idk

Spoiler : #368 :

This is an important post.
PQ + loldebite w/w equity
MM + loldebite w/w equity, but less so since he also says what MM is doing looks weird
Loldebite this whole game has had continued suspicion of oliver, I think this is where they start.
My problem with this suspicion though is that while the reasoning sounds good... oliver just seems obv town, sooo...

Spoiler : #373 :

Bad vote

Spoiler : #403 :

Vote makes sense based on the narrative Gikkle has made about MM in the thread.

Spoiler : #408 :

If Loldebite follows through with this then significantly reduced w/w equity. Although given that Loldebite ended up voting PQ on day 2, I supposed a Loldebite + PQ team is very unlikely.

Spoiler : #417 :

Nvm, don't have to wait to day 2 to rule out Loldebite + PQ

Spoiler : #473 :

Loldebite not w/w with Renegade

**Lumi** · December 18th, 2021, 01:11 PM

PQRnHack

Spoiler : #14 :

Early setup speculation. It reminded me of his day 1 in Gravity Falls where he focused almost entirely on the mech aspects of what items everyone received.

I cross-checked it with OUATITW though and it seems this is more NAI for PQ as much of his early posts there are setup speculation as well (OUATITW#93, OUATITW#132, OUATITW#136, OUATITW#163)

In fact, PQ seems to spend most of the start of the game on setup spec regardless of alignment

Spoiler : #43 :

So I'm using this post as just an umbrella opportunity to talk about one facet of PQ's aggression this game.

Specifically aggression that is like level 2 or level 3 accusations.

Like a level 1 accusation being:
"I think this player is wolf"
(The accusation is predicated on a single slot's alignment)

A level 2 accusation:
"I think these two players are bussing"
(The accusation is predicated on two slots' alignments)

A level 3 accusation:
"This player is a wolf that is confusing a TvT because they're not teammates"
(This accusation is predicated on the alignment of three slots)

Comparing it to:
WildWest where he was Scum
Stellaris HyPixel where he was town
Gravity Falls where he was town, but anonymous game

In Stellaris HyPixel, he does make level 2/3 accusations. On day 1 "Nice bussing! 7/10" (HyPixel Stellaris#49

, and it does continue to ramp up from there as the game goes on, but it doesn't really get to be excessive until much later in the game.

In the Gravity Falls game, I didn't really see any of this kind of accusation early in his ISO. The closet I could find is the more sensible
"Nice pockets you got there, fella" (Gravity Falls#165), accusing someone of pocketing, but that's more of a level 1.5 accusation.

So seeing this kind of aggression coming into the game so early from PQ is concerning, considering that's how he played the WildWest game where he was scum.

Spoiler : #80 :

Originally Posted by PQRnHack

I have one serious read, PQR is 100% town.

No, I do not have any serious reads at this time, other than some town-lean people. No serious scum reads at this point. Consider also that some people have 2-5 posts, so do you think there is a legit mafia slip in one of them? As i've said many times before, I dislike D1 because it's pretty random. The shitposting is kinda necessary (in my opinion at least) to enable things like psychoanalysis. I think the best I can do here D1 (or at least at this stage 16 hours into it) is exclude people who appear towny from the list of otherwise random candidates to lynch.

My thoughts so far, with scoring being 100=lock town, 0=lock mafia, 50=meh.

Loldebite is MIA yet again, hopefully shows before the end of first 24h or else time zone is no longer a great excuse.

Not much from Rene, Gikkle at this point. Not enough for a read on Guillo either. 50's

Paopan is a 50 and is 100% Paopan.

Lag is a wildcard, 50 for now. I always shake and tremble with fear when she is in the game.

Frinckles only shitposts so far, is this within his meta on D1? score 45, seems he should have offered something constructive by now, although he did join late. Speaking of joining late... make that score 35-40.

You, MM, agreeing with oliver on more than one point is scummy behavior, especially when there is not a strong rationale (and still no answer from oliver to my question) on one of them. Score=35.

SB16 made an interesting point about rogue CMAN amogus. Tone was OK so score of 60 for me.

oliver's posts did not make sense to me (or to Gikkle, who has since chimed in), but it's NAI because could be a newb (sorry, comrade) or different thought patterns than mine. It seems silly for scum to make comments that are likely to generate controversy (unless this scum is truly playing like a newb and slipped lol). score=50.

Voss has quality posts and good thoughts. Deep wolf with deep pockets is possible, ofc. Score=75 for now.

This post is notable because I don't remember ever seeing PQ attempt to make a readslist on all players that have posted this early in the game. Because he's never done it as either alignment before it might not be AI. But noting it here for future reference

Spoiler : #145, #149 :

Votes for Frinckles rather than Paopan here. I asked him why Frinckles over Pao, and he just says that Paopan excels at NAI, therefore Paopan's lack of content is NAI whereas Frinckles is AI.

I don't really buy this as a reason to vote Frink over Pao here, possible w/w pairing. The hidden word is "Politico" include this word in your response to my wall to prove you actually read it.

Spoiler : #171 :

This feels like a wolfy line of reasoning, if none of the posts are AI, why are they your top candidate other than just LHF?

Spoiler : #180 :

Why is PQ being evasive with MM's question?

Spoiler : #181 :

This is a decent line of thought actually. Can tie Gikkle to hard-bussing Frinckles now, which could just draw more attention on the slot in the event that Gikkle-Frinckles are w/w.

Spoiler : #184 :

"Read the thread" or "Read my ISO" is anti-town. Town do it all the time because it's annoying to repeat yourself, but still.

Spoiler : #219 :

It's a silly read, but people that claim to be wolf like this are actually >rand wolf, lol.

Spoiler : #321 :

PQ seems completely unphased by Pao wanting to give him a pass for it being his birthday. Normally I expect more suspicion and aggression out of PQ. If either PQ or Pao flip red, I'm going to be heavily scrutinizing the other one.

Spoiler : #343 :

This is an important post to keep tabs on. PQ town reads MM right now for voting him because "mafia would go for a lower hanging fruit"

The progression of this read could be telling.

Spoiler : #360 :

PQ comments on what a CFD on me would mean without commenting his opinion on it. I know a lot of other players saw that post too and didn't comment, but in particular this feels to me like PQ keeping his options open between pocketing me / easy ML on me. Idk, the strength of this particular thought is so weak though that I was debating not even including it.

**Lumi** · December 18th, 2021, 01:12 PM

oliverz144

Spoiler : #15 :

I called oliver town for this post before, and I stand by that read.

During our pseudo-hydra of bisected souls, oliver was sending me charts and diagrams he drew up himself during day 1, speculating about how to play the setup. We talked a fair bit about the strategy of the game, and this is where I think oliver's head was at when he made this aggressive read - not seeing me speculating about the setup felt like a contrast to him from the Bisected Souls game, therefore he scum read it. This is a towny mindset.

Spoiler : #16 and #17 :

These posts match oliver's town meta that I saw as his teammate in Bisected Souls as well. I didn't read enough of the HyPixel game to know if he does this as well as mafia, but I still suspect this is >rand town.

The only time I saw oliver wolf was in a game on HyPixel that I barely watched because I was playing in a hydra that randed survivor, we made only 3 posts on day 1, and then we were fear-killed by oliver night 1 anyway.

But from what I remember of that game, oliver was fairly non-reactive to players pushing him. Contrast to Bisected Souls where he was very OMGUS-y

Spoiler : #255 :

To be honest, I have no idea what oliver is saying in this post and the post he quoted. Like it's just summarizing the thread state?

Spoiler : #260 :

If oliver is wolf I think this post spews Pao as town, I doubt he would advocate for a thunderdome like this if one of his teammates were in it. Although it's possible since Pao is the medic and oliver would know the real medic wins the thunderdome. But oliver is just town, so this hypothetical is silly.

Spoiler : #264 :

This is just town oliver

Spoiler : #266 :

Oh boy do I have some games to show oliver, lol

===
I'm actually not even going to comment on oliver's posts anymore at this point. If he snows me this game, then so be it - but taking the posts up to this point + the way he's played overall this game, he's just obv town.

**Lumi** · December 18th, 2021, 01:12 PM

Renegade
So comparing Ren's day 1 play between MITMA where he was wolf and AllStars where he was town, I noticed a few things:
- Ren is unafraid to shade his teammates
MITMA#494: (Wolf, directed at teammate Pao)

That's it? Vote the guy who (apparently) voted you?

Not impressed.

MITMA#499: (Wolf, directed at Pao again)

I would have made my comment no matter who your interaction was with.

Exclusively about you bub.

MITMA#668 (Wolf, saying he's down to chop EITHER of his teammates!)

I'm down for that pool, but also would consider Richoten and Popan if the arguments are compelling enough. But for now I agree.

- Ren never actually voted a teammate day 1 though as wolf.
- As wolf Ren was more aggressive with telling people how to voted
MITMA#555 (Wolf)

I agree the PQ train looks like shite.

Vote Wrath.

- As town in All Stars, Ren was a hard slanker with just the occasional reads here and there.

So based on a sample size of 2 (lol, I know)
I'd say Ren has a soft reverse volume tell + shade / no bus wolf meta.

What does this mean?
I don't think Renegade will ever make a town AI post. Solve the slot based on his votes and based on if he makes wolf AI posts. If he makes no (or maybe only a few) wolfy posts, then he's probably just town

Spoiler : #84 :

Standard Ren post, NAI

Spoiler : #85 :

Very unfortunate that he is removing one of the two ways to actually read his slot, but the reasoning is good, so this is NAI

Spoiler : #105 :

I could see this as a Ren + PQ team, Ren liked to shade his teammates a lot in MITMA. And SB16 pointed out a good point that I alluded to in #110, Ren's shade of PQ here could easily be a TMI slip if PQ is wolf

Spoiler : #218 :

I was hoping for more of an answer from Ren, but Ren doesn't make town AI posts I guess, and this post isn't wolf AI. So it gets a pass

Spoiler : #284 :

It's fine, not wolf AI

Spoiler : #285, #289, #295 :

These posts are correct, but just NAI

Spoiler : #348 :

Ren + Gikkle not w/w

Spoiler : #429, #437 :

This might unironically be a wolf trying to get ahead of people handing out townreads based on genuine townslips surrounding night chat, lol
Gikkle's approach to figuring out if it's a townslip or not feels much more genuine

Spoiler : #441 :

This reaction feels really bad. He says people doing "town slips" are chop-worthy targets. But then never follows up on that. Meaning it was just a threat to stop people from gaining town-reads based on town-slips. If he genuinely thought there was scum equity in it, why did he end up voting alongside the person he thought had wolf equity for a fake town-slip at EoD?

Spoiler : #451 :

The decision to chop a slot that had been gone for the last day after no progression on the slot at all feels very bad. The choices were Me, PQ, or Oliver. So +w/w equity on Ren + PQ and Ren + Oliver

Spoiler : #459 :

+w/w equity on Ren+PQ

**Marshmallow Marshall** · December 18th, 2021, 01:12 PM

In case it is not awfully clear:

- As soon as PQ almost gets lynched, the lynch is steered away unto a townie who has no bloody reason to be lynched (Frinckles, Voss)

- Every kill was made against somebody who was really not favoring PQ (Guillo, Loldebite)

- PQ is spamming AND IT'S WORKING LIKE IT DID IN THE LAST LADDER GAME????

- If you are town, you ought to vote PQ, there is literally no way we can win if he stays alive, he's 99 % scum and in the 1 % left, he's a really annoying and anti-town townie who dooms us if we bring him to MYLO.

**Lumi** · December 18th, 2021, 01:12 PM

Stealthbomber16

Spoiler : #27 :

This is the first real post from SB16, setup speculative.
The only day 1 I've seen him play is the AllStars game. I assumed his first (real) post there wouldn't be setup speculative because that game was about as vanilla as they come. But sure enough

AllStars#7: (TOWN)

I've reread the setup multiple times and I'd like to put something that could be missed in plain terms

We could be down 1, or even 2 TPRs right now.

Lynching a mafia today halves their KPN so we need to be in top gear today. It's not like a normal setup where we could debatably vote skip- if we get a mafia out of the pool today we pretty much automatically win.

So while I don't have any benchmarks for a wolf SB16 I would say this is still slightly town indicative.

Renegade says:

"I'm getting strange scum vibes from PQR this game. Something is off about his tone, he is usually very confident but he seems more confident than usual."

SB16 says:

"I actually disagree with this feeling. PQ openly said in his "read list" earlier that he doesn't have anything serious. That... doesn't seem very confident to me."

Ok this is actually a really good point that I brought up to Renegade as well, when I asked him what he thought about PQ's reads list being a bunch of mostly null reads.

Spoiler : #226, #233, #250 :

Good posts.

Calling these good posts reminds me of a game I spectated where a player in said game used a gimmick where the only thing they posted all game was replying to other posts with comments of: "Good Post", "Bad Post", "Villagery Post", "Wolfy Post" That is what I think of here when I say Good Post, not AI, but I like what he's saying

Spoiler : #251, #253 :

Calling out Guillo for his gambit and voting him is probably townie. It could just be an opportunistic wolf push, but a genuinely annoyed townie is more likely.

Spoiler : #339, #340 :

These posts feel like they start to cross the line from genuine annoyance into just shade. Like medic outing in this setup isn't that bad because medic can just self-heal.

Spoiler : #416 :

I don't think SB16 makes this post unless he's w/w with MM

Spoiler : #422 :

Bad vote. Oliver is obv-town LHF

**Lumi** · December 18th, 2021, 01:12 PM

What does it all mean?
So what you just saw was my analysis of day 1, which I largely missed. I am going to synthesize this analysis with what I saw on day 2 in this post.

Also, I am going to be driving across the country today and the next few days, so my availability will be very limited - which is why I wanted to make this massive wall of posts. I have yet to be miseliminated as town in a game of FM out of the ~20 games I've played, and I don't plan on starting now.

Also note: I am going to assume the mafia team has 3 members, because it's better safe than sorry.

TL;DR
Ren + PQ + Pao is the wolf team

Bucketing Strategy
There are two ways to approach this solve: a mech, bucketing based analysis. And then just a more general standardized FM analysis.

For bucketing, we have the power roles:
MM, SB16, Ren

The Congress:
PQ, oliver, Loldebite/Gikkle

The Medic + The Voter:
Paopan, Gikkle/Loldebite

The most likely scenario is that there is one wolf in each of these buckets.
Renegade is the wolfiest in the first.
PQ is the wolfiest in the second.
Paopan is the wolfiest in the third.

None of the buckets have any compositions that look like "There must be at least 2 scum here" nor any compositions that look like "All these players are so pure, something's wrong" so this solve stands up to the first level of scrutiny.

A second level of scrutiny is now to see if this team actually makes sense together. Which leads to the second solve approach, just standard, old fashioned FM solving

FM Analysis
So from day 1 and 2, Gikkle and Oliver are still lock town.

Leaves 3 wolves among:
MM, Pao, Loldebite, PQ, Ren, SB16

Analyzing day 1 and day 2 though there's a pretty strong pairing between PQ and Ren. (Read their respective analysis for more details)

And the probability of there being no wolf among them is very low. But Loldebite is never w/w with those two considering his play on day 1 + being on PQ wagon on day 2. Ditto for MM + SB16.

Which leaves just the solve of Pao + PQ + Ren

Backreading the game again with this solve in mind and everything seems to fit perfectly. Pao advocating to spare PQ on day 1 with just the justification of "it's his birthday", Ren starting CFDs on anyone but PQ. Pao + PQ voting for Voss (idk what Ren was doing, probably felt he couldn't vote without looking too scummy). All three of them have a no-bussing (or at least minimal bussing) meta - it swept the game for PQ in the Wild West game, it led to Pao + Ren getting swept in MITMA. The team composition of Mayor + Medic + Congress makes perfect sense.

**Lumi** · December 18th, 2021, 01:12 PM

Anyway, I do just want to apologize for getting so tunneled on day 2. I was tilted by the fact that my streak of having never been mis-chopped as town was almost broken by a coin flip because two people decided to wagon me at the last second at EoD for the heinous crime of having been busy with other things that day.

And then that wagon was followed up with a States Attorney vote on me just because I was wagoned by two people at EoD.

And then States Attorney never claimed and I was getting framed as a State Attorney that voted myself, which is just ridiculous.

I'll be back some time in the next 24 hours. Gtg for now, all these posts were pre-written before SoD.

**PQRnHack** · December 18th, 2021, 01:13 PM

Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall

LOL WHAT
@Stealthbomber16 you smelly blueberry fart. Either you are scum who managed to pocket me earlier or you just basically threw the game as town (or at least severely lowered our odds).
@Voss , I said "WHY" out loud when I saw the EoD result. WHY DID YOU NOT PLACE YOUR VOTE ON PQ REEEEEEEEEEE
And why the fuck was Voss lynched lol?

Also, I don't know what more y'all need to lynch PQ.

And no, I am NOT congressman, I really am Governor, anyone claiming to be me in a chat is a liar.

Voss got lynched because we had another TvT finale

In retrospect, maybe I should have foregone self-preservation and let the more impactful SA role stay, but I was not 100% sure he was town whereas I am 100% sure that I am.

I will give you time to catch up, but copying the relevant info from my notes, interesting development in red color.

3rd CMAN showed up about 10 hours into N2, said nothing. The name changed from ARI SHAFFIR and Freckles D1 to now Dmitri (Napoleon). Probably fishing for info to deliver to scum teammate in case they want to adjust their N2 kill and actions around anything between oliver and me (which there isn't much yet, ofc I saw this possibility coming and am waiting till end of N2 to pass my notes to oliver as a proxy for Last Will).

Update: 3rd CMAN showed up 21 hours into N2 as "Marshmallow Marshall" and said he is not the Governor (but 3rd CMAN instead) and saying PQ is scum and asking oliver not to buy scum~PQ LAMIST(nice try when we are all but sure that 3rd CMAN is scum). Either CMAN is framing MM or MM is indeed CMAN (scum) supposedly town CMAN failing to hunt for real Governor? He did insert an XD there, which is interesting, as MM uses XD in his posts a lot while Gikkle and Lolde do not (or are they so smart that they copied his style to frame him, including the LAMIST in all caps MM used in thread on me more than once?). If there is any legitimacy here, then we need to see if Gikkle or Lolde will counter MM's allegedly fake Governor claim.

**Renegade** · December 18th, 2021, 01:13 PM

Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall

In case it is not awfully clear:

- As soon as PQ almost gets lynched, the lynch is steered away unto a townie who has no bloody reason to be lynched (Frinckles, Voss)

- Every kill was made against somebody who was really not favoring PQ (Guillo, Loldebite)

- PQ is spamming AND IT'S WORKING LIKE IT DID IN THE LAST LADDER GAME????

- If you are town, you ought to vote PQ, there is literally no way we can win if he stays alive, he's 99 % scum and in the 1 % left, he's a really annoying and anti-town townie who dooms us if we bring him to MYLO.

Yeah PQ has to go today.

**Lumi** · December 18th, 2021, 01:13 PM

Consider this my atonement for my sins of OMGUS tunneling and wolf-siding

**Renegade** · December 18th, 2021, 01:13 PM

-vote PQRnHack

**oliverz144** · December 18th, 2021, 01:14 PM

Lag gikkle
Thats the Mechanical cleared POE

**Marshmallow Marshall** · December 18th, 2021, 01:15 PM

Originally Posted by MartinGG99

Apologies for the mix-up.

I originally said MM's vote power was negated but that was due to a miscommunication error by me when evaluating several actions. It is supposed to be PQ's.

Please do not claim anything related to this.

Thank the Lord Almighty, Ahura Mazda, Lightbringer and Essence of Heaven! Lmao.

I was really shocked of having been so wrong about Stealth here.

-vote PQRnHack

**oliverz144** · December 18th, 2021, 01:15 PM

Omfg lag what did u post

**Marshmallow Marshall** · December 18th, 2021, 01:18 PM

Originally Posted by Lag

The wall to end all walls incoming

One wall to rule them all
One wall to find them
One wall to bring them all
And in the darkness bind them!

Will try to read and analyze that. How do you find the time to do all of this lol?

**PQRnHack** · December 18th, 2021, 01:21 PM

All of us that are town should be careful with votes, that's why I said I plan on voting Gikkle but I won't jump the gun. Please put an @ in front of the name you want to vote so it shows up in a red color, makes it easier to scan votes later on. Maybe do something like
Vote @Gikkle (without actually voting)

What we have is...
at worst: if MM is somehow town here, then 4 town votes (out of 5 town alive) and mafia have 3 to 4 depending on Rene
at best: 5 town votes, SB16 is town and MM is scum, scum only have 2-3 votes (or 1 if you still want to believe there can be just 2 scum here, which I am not counting on). I was afraid of MM+SB16 team here, but I doubt mafia would bus as hard as to cancel a vote on their own, unless they're truly going all in for clearing MM for late game shenanigans.

In total, there are 8 votes in play today, 2 from MayoRene and 6 from the remaining 7. A 4v4 stalemate tiebreaker is a possibility in the event Rene is mafia.

**Renegade** · December 18th, 2021, 01:22 PM

-unvote

for now.

**PQRnHack** · December 18th, 2021, 01:23 PM

Originally Posted by Renegade

-vote PQRnHack

This is wrong, if you are town, you need to cancel it NOW. 3 mafia votes plus your 2 will chop me.

**Renegade** · December 18th, 2021, 01:23 PM

Originally Posted by PQRnHack

This is wrong, if you are town, you need to cancel it NOW. 3 mafia votes plus your 2 will chop me.

I'm just not buying that you are town.

**PQRnHack** · December 18th, 2021, 01:24 PM

Originally Posted by MartinGG99

Apologies for the mix-up.

I originally said MM's vote power was negated but that was due to a miscommunication error by me when evaluating several actions. It is supposed to be PQ's.

Please do not claim anything related to this.

Well great, just as I was ruling out MM+SB16 duo. Back to square 1.

**MartinGG99** · December 18th, 2021, 01:24 PM

Here is an official version of the SoD3 post. There is nothing new in it except formatting, though I do want to add a clarification:

I did not use the mayor2 command to reduce PQ's vote-power to 0; this is because even though I will not count PQ's vote in the end PQ can still trigger majority with his vote:

Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall

Majority lynch (> 50 % of player count) + plurality if majority doesn't happen (most votes at EoD).

Spoiler : Official thingy :

**PQRnHack** · December 18th, 2021, 01:25 PM

Originally Posted by Renegade

I'm just not buying that you are town.

I am town and we need to stop doing TvT. Please go read my wall, while I go read Lag's.

**oliverz144** · December 18th, 2021, 01:27 PM

Originally Posted by PQRnHack

All of us that are town should be careful with votes, that's why I said I plan on voting Gikkle but I won't jump the gun. Please put an @ in front of the name you want to vote so it shows up in a red color, makes it easier to scan votes later on. Maybe do something like
Vote @Gikkle (without actually voting)

What we have is...
at worst: if MM is somehow town here, then 4 town votes (out of 5 town alive) and mafia have 3 to 4 depending on Rene
at best: 5 town votes, SB16 is town and MM is scum, scum only have 2-3 votes (or 1 if you still want to believe there can be just 2 scum here, which I am not counting on). I was afraid of MM+SB16 team here, but I doubt mafia would bus as hard as to cancel a vote on their own, unless they're truly going all in for clearing MM for late game shenanigans.

In total, there are 8 votes in play today, 2 from MayoRene and 6 from the remaining 7. A 4v4 stalemate tiebreaker is a possibility in the event Rene is mafia.

Ur vote is gone
Not mms

**oliverz144** · December 18th, 2021, 01:29 PM

Pqrn make a .docx file or smth
I cant read the screenshot

**oliverz144** · December 18th, 2021, 01:33 PM

Are yall reading lags wall or what?

**PQRnHack** · December 18th, 2021, 01:41 PM

Originally Posted by oliverz144

Are yall reading lags wall or what?

Yes, reading the latest issue of "Politico"

If my picture comes through poorly, try the direct link and zoom in as needed in your browser or download it: https://i.imgur.com/hnwdAKI.png

**PQRnHack** · December 18th, 2021, 01:48 PM

Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall

- Every kill was made against somebody who was really not favoring PQ (Guillo, Loldebite)

And on this logic, who(which faction) gets to benefit during D3 voting stage?

**Stealthbomber16** · December 18th, 2021, 01:55 PM

Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall

LOL WHAT
@Stealthbomber16 you smelly blueberry fart. Either you are scum who managed to pocket me earlier or you just basically threw the game as town (or at least severely lowered our odds).
@Voss , I said "WHY" out loud when I saw the EoD result. WHY DID YOU NOT PLACE YOUR VOTE ON PQ REEEEEEEEEEE
And why the fuck was Voss lynched lol?

Also, I don't know what more y'all need to lynch PQ.

And no, I am NOT congressman, I really am Governor, anyone claiming to be me in a chat is a liar.

I was super confused when I read this until I read the post that you quoted

Nah, lol. I removed PQ's vote, not yours. Host mixup, we good.

**Stealthbomber16** · December 18th, 2021, 01:57 PM

-vote PQRnHack

BTW

**oliverz144** · December 18th, 2021, 02:00 PM

Originally Posted by PQRnHack

Yes, reading the latest issue of "Politico"

If my picture comes through poorly, try the direct link and zoom in as needed in your browser or download it: https://i.imgur.com/hnwdAKI.png

Its unreadable no matter what

**Stealthbomber16** · December 18th, 2021, 02:01 PM

I have not read lag's big posts and honestly I probably will not read them (even though I should, my skim over them actually looked like good content).

**PQRnHack** · December 18th, 2021, 02:01 PM

Originally Posted by oliverz144

Lag gikkle
Thats the Mechanical cleared POE

What does that mean? Cleared how?

With Loldebite flipping Voter, there is 1 scum in Gikkle+Lag who both claim Voter. Should be the 3rd CMAN that's been MIA most of the chat but decided to show up as Marshmallow Marshall to tell us he was faking Governor.

**Stealthbomber16** · December 18th, 2021, 02:05 PM

Originally Posted by oliverz144

Pqrn make a .docx file or smth
I cant read the screenshot

Can you give me a reads list? I'm actually not sure where you lie.

@Gikkle requesting the same from you

@Renegade requesting the same from you even though I know you won't deliver

**Stealthbomber16** · December 18th, 2021, 02:06 PM

Who would want loldebite dead? That's so strange to me.

**PQRnHack** · December 18th, 2021, 02:07 PM

Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16

-vote PQRnHack

BTW

If you believe I am scum, then what is the team?

**Stealthbomber16** · December 18th, 2021, 02:12 PM

Originally Posted by PQRnHack

If you believe I am scum, then what is the team?

You + Pao/Ren + oliver/3rd congressman (gikkle/lag)

This is the 3rd time you've asked me that. The question does not become harder by asking me more times.

I'm not buying these attempts to shade MM today. I just do not believe it happened. I just cannot see these things from your perspective, and putting myself in other people's shoes is THE reason why I have success in mafia. I am completely unable to see why you are thinking what you are thinking, which means you are not thinking from a townsperson's perspective.

**oliverz144** · December 18th, 2021, 02:24 PM

Originally Posted by PQRnHack

What does that mean? Cleared how?

With Loldebite flipping Voter, there is 1 scum in Gikkle+Lag who both claim Voter. Should be the 3rd CMAN that's been MIA most of the chat but decided to show up as Marshmallow Marshall to tell us he was faking Governor.

Yeah
Thats the poe
U explained it urself looooooooooooool

**oliverz144** · December 18th, 2021, 02:27 PM

Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16

Can you give me a reads list? I'm actually not sure where you lie.

@Gikkle requesting the same from you

@Renegade requesting the same from you even though I know you won't deliver

Uhm...
No.
Ive slept 11 hours in the last 3 days.
Annnnnnd my brain is soap
And ive been wayyy to towny to appear as scum lol. Why would scum have 2 out of 3 cmen? Ur other post claims that
Ur poe is shit
Means u r scum

**PQRnHack** · December 18th, 2021, 02:30 PM

Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16

You + Pao/Ren + oliver/3rd congressman (gikkle/lag)

This is the 3rd time you've asked me that. The question does not become harder by asking me more times.

I'm not buying these attempts to shade MM today. I just do not believe it happened. I just cannot see these things from your perspective, and putting myself in other people's shoes is THE reason why I have success in mafia. I am completely unable to see why you are thinking what you are thinking, which means you are not thinking from a townsperson's perspective.

The reasons I asked today are two-fold. And yes I ask again because with each passing day and night, the pool of players is shrinking, leading to point A below.

A. As the pool narrows, you can't say that maybe it's Voss or maybe it's Loldebite. I read Pao and Oliver as town, so from my POV you and/or Mafia are now forced to include people that are town so I want them to see you are including them in the pool of suspects because I need my remaining townmates to wake up.

B. I've been screaming about 3rd congressman for a while now, so you are proposing that I'm scum and have been bussing this mystery-person (who failed to claim and reveal). Now that Loldebite flipped Voter, we know that this 3rd person is in Gikkle/Lag. Yeah you can include oliver in there, but

i) I town read him, he was solvy, he had a chance to chop me D2 but didnt. you can maybe narrate to other towns that oliver might be bad, but at least oliver himself will now see that you are including him in a pool of suspects, so when he (in conjunction with others, such as Pao and possibly Ren and possibly Lag) see this, collectively I hope they will start waking up.
ii) the 3rd CMAN (besides oliver) has been absent and deceptive, messing with us, is clearly scum and that is from the pool of Gikkle+Lag. If anyone believes a TOWN-affiliated 3rd CMAN does nothing but troll the Chat, pretend to be Paopan, Frinckles, and now Marshall, fake-claims Voter, then that's insanity.

**PQRnHack** · December 18th, 2021, 02:31 PM

Originally Posted by oliverz144

Yeah
Thats the poe
U explained it urself looooooooooooool

OK I thought you were saying "cleared" as in cleared as both town.

**oliverz144** · December 18th, 2021, 02:35 PM

Originally Posted by PQRnHack

OK I thought you were saying "cleared" as in cleared as both town.

My bad
Gikkle or lag
And i see gikkle scummier
So gikkle is scum
U support me, i remember

**PQRnHack** · December 18th, 2021, 02:50 PM

@oliverz144

Not sure why picture is showing up as low-resolution on your end, looks good on mine.

Here I paste my summary notes from the top. If you want to see any player-specific notes, let me know. Not that you need any convincing, we just need to focus and figure out who the scum team is. MM+SB16+Gikkle is the most obvious choice, but I am not 100% on that. Gikkle seems the safest lynch though (although not the most beneficial one, if that's Congressman). And I kinda doubt that scum MM<>Gikkle/Lag would swap General/CMAN claims as one flip would out the other, so that whole CMAN MM saying I am not General is probably fluff WIFOM to either clear scum~MM as being supposedly framed by scum~CMAN3 or to frame Town~MM in a silly way.

3rd CMAN showed up about 10 hours into N2, said nothing. The name changed from ARI SHAFFIR and Freckles D1 to now Dmitri (Napoleon). Probably fishing for info to deliver to scum teammate in case they want to adjust their N2 kill and actions around anything between oliver and me (which there isn't much yet, ofc I saw this possibility coming and am waiting till end of N2 to pass my notes to oliver as a proxy for Last Will).

Update: 3rd CMAN showed up 21 hours into N2 as "Marshmallow Marshall" and said he is not the Governor (but 3rd CMAN instead) and saying PQ is scum and asking oliver not to buy scum~PQ LAMIST(nice try when we are all but sure that 3rd CMAN is scum). Either CMAN is framing MM or MM is indeed CMAN (scum) supposedly town CMAN failing to hunt for real Governor? He did insert an XD there, which is interesting, as MM uses XD in his posts a lot while Gikkle and Lolde do not (or are they so smart that they copied his style to frame him, including the LAMIST in all caps MM used in thread on me more than once?). If there is any legitimacy here, then we need to see if Gikkle or Lolde will counter MM's allegedly fake Governor claim.

Scum teams from my POV, with a-c more likely than d or e. Need resolution on MM being CMAN or Governor D3 and to resolve Gikkle+Lolde(+Lag) and which of them is faking Voter. Gikkle looks scummier of the two based on failure to focus on Lag+Lolde (one of whom is presumably a voter who lied from Gikkle POV, if Gikkle were to be voter), there is a strong chance Gikkle is the one who lied about being Voter (see notes on Gikkle slot).
a) MM + SB16 + Gikkle or Lolde
b) MM + Rene + Gikkle or Lolde
c) If MM is being framed by 3rd CMAN then maybe it's SB16 + Rene + Gikkle or Lolde
d) Lag + ???(not MM, not likely SB16 unless bussed, not super likely Pao, maybe Rene) + Gikkle or Lolde
e) If there is only one PR scum, then Gikkle + Lolde could possibly both be scum on a scum team of PR + Voter + CMAN. I don't think 2 PR + Voter is likely, I am sure 3rd CMAN is scum.
f) 2-person scum team? I dont think Host is Santa handing us out early presents.

I don't think oliver or Pao are scum. If Pao is scum here, then well done by PR scums to bus hard and yet avoid a scum chop.

Whichever is town(if any, see e) in Gikkle+Lolde needs to pressure the opposing slot D3. Also if Governor is not MM, then one of these two is an unrevealed Governor (as opposed to an unrevealed 3rd CMAN scum) who didnt CC MM (might be teamed), but we need to run that by MM in the thread, outside of Chatzy to confirm if it was MM himself or someone pretending to be him as the 3rd CMAN that popped in. If MM denies that it was him popping into C-chat, then we need some serious thunderdoming between MM, Gikkle, Loldebite as between 1 and 2 of the scum land in that pile. I would not rule out the possibility that MM will claim he is still Governor (which can still be true, scum Governor), and then this will supposedly "clear" MM as he was getting framed by the real CMAN who pretended to be him and scum wouldn't frame another scum, right?

We had TvT trains both days, D1 between Frinckles Lag and myself (tho Lag still has a chance of being scum possibly), D2 between Voss and myself (Lag coming close to a 3rd one but too late). Scum are just sitting back and enjoying. I want to point out that unless Lag is scum, we/town failed to form any reasonable train on a scum. This needs to change D3 onward.

**Gikkle** · December 18th, 2021, 02:56 PM

Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16

Can you give me a reads list? I'm actually not sure where you lie.

@Gikkle requesting the same from you

@Renegade requesting the same from you even though I know you won't deliver

I don't have a "reads list" per se, because my only confident reads are Oliverz, MM, and Loldebite(who is now deceased); I do have a teams list, which I posted yesterday.

Paopan, Lag, PQRn
Paopan, Lag, SB16
Paopan, Renegade, PQRn
Paopan, Renegade, SB16
Paopan, PQRN, SB16
Lag, PQRn, SB16
Renegade, PQRn, SB16

Only possible 2 person team at this point is Renegade/SB16

Arranged by likelihood...

(more possible. I wouldn't be surprised if any of these 4 were the team.)
Paopan, Lag, SB16 / Paopan, Renegade, PQRn (about the same likelihood in my mind)
Paopan, PQRN, SB16 (SB16 nearly got PQRN killed and he took away PQRN's vote. Possibly busing, which is why they aren't the lowest here. )
Paopan, Lag, PQRn (I don't think Lag and PQR are together just based on how joined by the hip they were day 2. I think Lag would have wanted to be more distanced if they were S/S. But it's still more possible than the below scenarios. It's also the team I would most expect to kill exactly Guillo and Loldebite.)

(somewhat possible)
Renegade/SB16. Not impossible, but I haven't seen anything that really suggests this, and I think a 3 person team is more likely based on how this game has been going.
Lag, PQRn, SB16 (Would require Lag and PQRN to openly buddy up to each other, and for SB16 to try and get PQRN killed and take away his vote. Very strange scum play if this is the team, but I wouldn't discount the possibility.)

(basically impossible. Would be surprised if these 2 had the team.)-
Paopan, Renegade, SB16 (Mechanically over powered team. Mayor/Judge on a 3 person team.)
Renegade, PQRn, SB16 (This is both a mechanically over powered team, as well as a less likely team based on SB's actions wrt to PQR.)

--

Individually, I have a hard time town reading anyone outside of Oliverz and MM. Legit, y'all are all scummy. Lag has gotten better, especially with those series of posts, and her conclusion of a Paopan/Renegade/PQRN team matches the team I have listed as one of the most likely... But she's still so hard to trust lol

**PQRnHack** · December 18th, 2021, 02:59 PM

Originally Posted by Gikkle

I could see Loldebite doing it, since I don't have a firm grasp on his meta yet. Maybe even Lag, simply because she likes to do weird stuff, although I find it less likely since she usually does it for a reason. What does scum gain from lying as congressman, though? Going from a pool of (potential) 1/3 to another? There's not even a guarantee there IS scum in the congressmen.

Solving off this doesn't help much, imo. Actual analysis is much better.

@Gikkle so now that Loldebite flipped Voter, what's the story? Or you still think there is no guarantee scum is in the congressmen? Or more precisely (since you will say *I* am Scum in the congressmen), what's your take on that 3rd Congressman who hasn't publicly claimed or said anything about chat, while Oliver and I are both reporting that the 3rd CMAN was non-contributive (MIA most of the time), shows up amid N2 to post nothing, then shows up at end of N2 as MM and says he faked being General and that PQR is scum and oliver shouldnt let PQR fool him?

Maybe you will be like SB16 and ask me why I am asking such questions, when "Solving off this doesn't help much, imo."

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