S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II

[Stealthbomber16]

Weird comment coming from someone that never commented on why it's alarming when literally every single power role is down to chop the same slot.

It’s alarming that my top 2 townreads agree with me? Even renegade’s thought process is understandable. If my top 2 townreads were the other PRs, then my reads aren’t wrong, the scum team just doesn’t have one of those two PRs in it. My reads don’t change based on setup speculation. 2 congressman + medic is a serviceable scum team and it seems entirely legitimate based upon my reads.

[Lumi]

-vote oliverz144

Might as well commit since i removed my vote from PQR. I still want his ass tho.

I'm going to veto this, oliver doesn't go over today

[Stealthbomber16]

@Marshmallow Marshall @Lag @Gikkle @PQRnHack @Voss @Stealthbomber16
Is this actually true ? I'd like at least 3 of you confirming to avoid being rekt like MM did me last game.

Revisiting this, in my last game with renegade I mislynched him as town because he refused to give reads of any sort.

[Lumi]

It’s alarming that my top 2 townreads agree with me? Even renegade’s thought process is understandable. If my top 2 townreads were the other PRs, then my reads aren’t wrong, the scum team just doesn’t have one of those two PRs in it. My reads don’t change based on setup speculation. 2 congressman + medic is a serviceable scum team and it seems entirely legitimate based upon my reads.

Things have finally fallen into place enough that I think I can put together an organized list. Let this stand the test of time. I'll put it nice and neat, and right here underneath my post explaining why PQ is scum.

SCUM
Lag. 2 weak days in a row, I don't understand anything he's saying today. I don't see anything ACTIVELY scummy coming from his slot but this guy is just putting off so many bad vibes and I cannot see things from his perspective.
PQRnHack. Caught in 2 TMI slips. Currently in a garbage flow. See above.

SCUM LEAN
Oliver. A slot that has been largely incoherent. I need to go back and re-analyze oliver again but my gut is pointing me here.
Pao. This dude is fucking crazy. If/when Lag flips scum he moves up into the red category.
Loldebite. I almost left him off this list. I have to go back and re-analyze Loldebite as well.

TOWN LEAN
Gikkle. The only slot with poor voting that I actively think is town. They explain their thought process and it appears very organic. I'm reserved because I think this player could be good enough to be red here, but I also don't think they are.
Renegade. I always scumread Renegade, but this game I scumread him less than I normally do, which means he's probably town.

TOWN CORE
Voss. Very organic thought process, we think alike on many topics. Voss is very solidly town here. If you are going to pursue a deep-wolf candidate from the frinckles train, pursue Gikkle instead. I will die on this hill.
MM. I have yet to understand why this player has gotten any flak at all. We are currently mindmelding on pretty much everything.

I am of course super-duper-always-town, which transcends the tier list, so I am notably absent.

This you?

Because uhhh... how does a vanilla town fit into your 2 congress + medic scum team?

[Loldebite]

I may have to be off closer to EoD so i'll get my vote back on PQR since no one else seems to want to vote oliver.

-vote PQRnHack

I'm going to veto this, oliver doesn't go over today

'kay. He wasnt as unhelpful last game tho,

Revisiting this, in my last game with renegade I mislynched him as town because he refused to give reads of any sort.

Well, fuck. If you are MM-ing me then wp you are my top town anyway.

[Stealthbomber16]

This you?

Because uhhh... how does a vanilla town fit into your 2 congress + medic scum team?

1. You could totally be the missing congressman
2. PQ and Oliver have both claimed congressman
3. Pao is my new top scumread. You should be able to deduce that from the way the day has progressed
4. I’ve stated I don’t scumread gikkle anymore

All of these puzzle pieces still fit. Nice try though.

[Stealthbomber16]

This you?

Because uhhh... how does a vanilla town fit into your 2 congress + medic scum team?

If you were to flip scum voter right now that would reflect very poorly upon renegade, as he’s the scummiest PR on my list. That would be the scenario you are looking for.

Oh shit, did you forget that renegade is a PR? Just been thinking about him as your teammate?

[Lumi]

1. You could totally be the missing congressman
2. PQ and Oliver have both claimed congressman
3. Pao is my new top scumread. You should be able to deduce that from the way the day has progressed
4. I’ve stated I don’t scumread gikkle anymore

All of these puzzle pieces still fit. Nice try though.

Except if I'm scum congress with PQ + oliver, I literally never decide to just not use the chat and remain silent like the third congress has apparently done. Like that's just antithetical to the way I play and you should be ashamed of even suggesting it.

Even more so if the congress is 2 scum + 1 town. This theory has more holes than a block of swiss cheese.

[Lumi]

If you were to flip scum voter right now that would reflect very poorly upon renegade, as he’s the scummiest PR on my list. That would be the scenario you are looking for.

Oh shit, did you forget that renegade is a PR? Just been thinking about him as your teammate?

What kind of pre-flip read nonsense is this?

You're making me want to TR Ren just based on how bad of a take this is lmao

[Voss]

Could we please take a second and not vote pqrn over pao? Pao is clearly the scummier option here.

[Lumi]

Could we please take a second and not vote pqrn over pao? Pao is clearly the scummier option here.

What are your reads on all of the power roles right now?

[Loldebite]

Could we please take a second and not vote pqrn over pao? Pao is clearly the scummier option here.

Two nights in a row that you defend PQR. Why ?
Pao MAY seem scummier all you want, but you must agree that all power roles agreeing is a bad sign...

[oliverz144]

Ugh
Where is gikkle from
Where is lag from
I think lolde is german i refently heard
Prepare on a cfd on either lag or gikkle
I need to know their location

[Lumi]

Ugh
Where is gikkle from
Where is lag from
I think lolde is german i refently heard
Prepare on a cfd on either lag or gikkle
I need to know their location

Veto this too, lmao

[Gikkle]

(3 scum scenario)

PQRN/Voss/Oliverz contains no more than 2 scum, vote count wise and mechanically (congressman). I could see martin putting 2 scum just to make people confused, but not all three, because then the chat would be pointless. They all voted together d1, which would be rather weird for scum to do. I honestly find it unlikely, though, that more than one of them is scum, even if I don't think it's impossible.
MM/Stealth/Renegade contains no more than 2 scum, mechanically. Would give a 3 person scum team too significant of a voting advantage. Only 2 role combinations that are impossible in a 3 person team is SA/Mayor. All other combinations of 2 would probably work somewhat.
Lag/Renegade is VERY unlikely to be S/S, based on the fact Renegade almost got Lag killed yesterday.
Loldebite, I think, is townie. He has seemed fairly genuine all game and it's never seemed like he's had TMI or an agenda or anything. Mostly just an attitude read, really.
I also think Oliverz matches his town meta more than his scum meta. In his scum game, he was very stagnant and uncontroversial - I don't see the same thing here.
Paopan/Lag likely contains one scum, could contain two if they decided to do something spicy last night.
PQRN/MM is unlikely to be S/S.
MM is most likely town after seeing his play this day. His day 1 stunk, but his day 2 has been great so far.
I disagree PQRN is actually that scummy - but I'm not confident enough to come to his defense, because he has had some questionable moments.

I think the following pool contains the 2-3 scum:

Paopan
Lag
PQRN
Voss
Renegade
Stealthbomber
(removed myself, oliverz, loldebite, MM. )

The following teams for three people could be possible, in my mind (I may have missed some):

Paopan, Lag, PQRn
Paopan, Lag, Voss
Paopan, Lag, SB16
Paopan, Renegade, PQRn
Paopan, Renegade, Voss
Paopan, Renegade, SB16
Paopan, Voss, PQRn
Paopan, Voss, SB16
Paopan, PQRN, SB16
Lag, PQRn, Voss
Lag, PQRn, SB16
Lag, Voss, SB16
Renegade, PQRn, Voss
Renegade, PQRn, SB16
Renegade, Voss, SB16
Voss, SB16, PQRn


(2 scum scenario)

For two people, like other people have said, I think the only really valid teams are 2 vote manipulation PRs. One of the mayor/SA + one of the other vote manipulation PRs, or both the Mayor and the SA. SA hasn't claimed, so it's one of Paopan/Lag.

MM, Renegade, SB16, and one of Paopan/Lag. 2 of these, basically. Since I TR MM, it'd have to be Renegade/SB16, Renegade/Paopan, SB16/Paopan, or SB16/Lag.

--

Obviously, this is more for my own personal visualization than yours, since I'm a possibility to you guys, and you may not agree with leaving Loldebite/MM/Oliverz out... But I think these 16 3 person teams, and 4 2 person teams has the correct team.

Some of this needs to be changed because I thought Voss was congressman, and that one of Lag/Paopan was SA
Voss/Lag is an less likely duo based on his vote on her. Could be busing, so not impossible, but it's slightly less likely.
SB16/Voss is unlikely to be part of a 3 person team because it would cause possible d3 win by scum
Voss/Renegade being on a three person team would also produce the same effect.

three person teams:

Paopan, Lag, PQRn
Paopan, Lag, SB16
Paopan, Renegade, PQRn
Paopan, Renegade, SB16
Paopan, Voss, PQRn
Paopan, PQRN, SB16
Lag, PQRn, SB16
Renegade, PQRn, SB16

for 2 person teams,

Voss/Renegade
Renegade/SB16
Voss/SB16

this was just a hasty fix that I did with new information. I still think Oliverz, MM, and Loldebite are townie. Loldebite is more light town at this point... He could use some re-evaluation tomorrow.

[Loldebite]

Ugh
Where is gikkle from
Where is lag from
I think lolde is german i refently heard
Prepare on a cfd on either lag or gikkle
I need to know their location

ffs this is the STUPIDEST SHIT I'VE EVER SEEN, we are NOT doing POE based on timezones. PERIOD.
And i'm not from germany.
You should 1) stop wasting your time on that or 2) if you DO think you have a GREAT idea EXPLAIN IT BEFOREHANDS, so we'll explain why its wrong or, maybe, be convinced and tell you if it does seem relevant.

[oliverz144]

Veto this too, lmao

Okok lag
1 answer, tell me if u rdy
Reply with yes or no
Just yes or no
Pls i beg you

[oliverz144]

Tell if u r rdy

[Lumi]

ffs this is the STUPIDEST SHIT I'VE EVER SEEN, we are NOT doing POE based on timezones. PERIOD.
And i'm not from germany.
You should 1) stop wasting your time on that or 2) if you DO think you have a GREAT idea EXPLAIN IT BEFOREHANDS, so we'll explain why its wrong or, maybe, be convinced and tell you if it does seem relevant.

This is town

[Lumi]

Okok lag
1 answer, tell me if u rdy
Reply with yes or no
Just yes or no
Pls i beg you

IF it's not a stupid question, sure

[PQRnHack]

PQR vs Pao is T v T, the votes on Pao are LHF on the standard Paopan-style play. Just because he plays in a sub-optimal fashion is not a scumtell. I am also starting to suspect Loldebite as the 3rd MIA congressman and scum.

[oliverz144]

ffs this is the STUPIDEST SHIT I'VE EVER SEEN, we are NOT doing POE based on timezones. PERIOD.
And i'm not from germany.
You should 1) stop wasting your time on that or 2) if you DO think you have a GREAT idea EXPLAIN IT BEFOREHANDS, so we'll explain why its wrong or, maybe, be convinced and tell you if it does seem relevant.

I cant
Now say were u r from

[oliverz144]

Ok lolde
Can u answer the same question i will make to lag?
Its a yes no question

[Loldebite]

Ok lolde
Can u answer the same question i will make to lag?
Its a yes no question

ask i'll tell you how mad i'll be.

[oliverz144]

Ok lolde
Ok lag
:
Are you currently living in the Usa?

[PQRnHack]

3rd congressman has been a no-show since early D1 in Chatzy. That, coupled with failure to claim, indicates that they are scum. Their brief entry into Chatzy on D1 was spewing all caps and essentially pretending to be paopan(I AM TOWN SAVIOR etc.) and then also frinckles (KING SHARK etc.). This is another reason I don't think Paopan is scum.

[Voss]

Two nights in a row that you defend PQR. Why ?
Pao MAY seem scummier all you want, but you must agree that all power roles agreeing is a bad sign...

it is, but i'd probably echo stealthbomber that i shouldn't use setup analysis to influence my reads. if it came down to a 1v1v1 stealth, me, mm, i'd probably vote for stealth. I'm hoping to god that I die before then.

I forgot why I give PqRNhack a pass with their spammy defensiveness, but it's somewhere in my reads.

[Lumi]

Ok lolde
Ok lag
:
Are you currently living in the Usa?

I'm excited to see loldebite's reaction to this one

[oliverz144]

Answer before eod pls

[Loldebite]

Ok lolde
Ok lag
:
Are you currently living in the Usa?

no lol, now THINK ABOUT THE GAME PLS

[Gikkle]

I cannot decide between PQRN and Voss for the life of me lmbo

[oliverz144]

I'm excited to see loldebite's reaction to this one

Answer lag pls
Or ill vote u

[Stealthbomber16]

Oh fuck I see what oliver is doing. That's actually quite smart.

My timezone is CST.

[PQRnHack]

Not the best choice, but have to do it

-vote Voss

In case I get lynched or die: town, please pressure Lolde slot D3 (also Gikkle). Should be scum CMAN in one of them, of which Lolde is more suspect at this time.

[Loldebite]

Oh fuck I see what oliver is doing. That's actually quite smart.

My timezone is CST.

oh god its contagious

[Lumi]

Answer lag pls
Or ill vote u

no lol, play the game ffs

[oliverz144]

-vote lag

[Loldebite]

no lol, play the game ffs

this. this is so sad. I'm gonna fucking cry if PQR flips town, thankfully he wont

[PQRnHack]

I guess oliver wants to see who might be "from China" same as the 3rd congressman in our chat days ago (D1).

[Gikkle]

I'm just gonna leave this to RNG lmbo

[MartinGG99]

Lag (2 [L-4]):
FM-Pacifica Northwest, oliverz144
PQRnHack (3 [L-3]):
Marshmallow Marshall, Stealthbomber16, Loldebite
Voss (3 [L-3]):
PQRnHack, NotPaopan, Lag
NotPaopan (1 [L-5]):
Voss

[Voss]

Not the best choice, but have to do it

-vote Voss

In case I get lynched or die: town, please pressure Lolde slot D3 (also Gikkle). Should be scum CMAN in one of them, of which Lolde is more suspect at this time.

you damp smelly gingerbreadman. do you think i'm pocketing you?

-vote Lag

[MartinGG99]

Day 2 ends!

The vote had been tied.

Spoiler : RNG result :

Voss died.

The flip result was...

Spoiler : Flip :

States Attorney

Night ends in about 24 hours from the end of day.

Apologies for the delay in posting the flip, as I sometimes have to respond to player communications.

[MartinGG99]

a bit busy atm but basically

@Loldebite

died, was a good guy voter

will create proper post soon-ish (formatted post w/ clarification link)

Day 3 Countdown Link

[PQRnHack]

Well that narrows things down!
I am going to be voting @Gikkle .

@Marshmallow Marshall was that actually you that popped into Congressman chat and said you are not actually Governor?

[MartinGG99]

5 votes to hammer.

PQ's vote power got negated by the judge

[Marshmallow Marshall]

5 votes to hammer.

MM's vote power got negated by the judge

LOL WHAT
@Stealthbomber16 you smelly blueberry fart. Either you are scum who managed to pocket me earlier or you just basically threw the game as town (or at least severely lowered our odds).
@Voss , I said "WHY" out loud when I saw the EoD result. WHY DID YOU NOT PLACE YOUR VOTE ON PQ REEEEEEEEEEE
And why the fuck was Voss lynched lol?

Also, I don't know what more y'all need to lynch PQ.

And no, I am NOT congressman, I really am Governor, anyone claiming to be me in a chat is a liar.

[PQRnHack]

@Stealthbomber16 good to see MM and SB16 finally "decoupling". What was the rationale behind taking vote away from MM?

[Renegade]

So, I totally fucked up and didn't vote at EOD. I was playing another game at the time and lost track.

I'm sorry for that.

[Renegade]

I have to be careful with my vote if there are 3 scum they could hammer.