Paopan claimed medic, and I thought it was pretty clear Guillotina took back his claim after that, and that Paopan was actually the medic. I don't believe they would have thought he was medic.
And again, EVEN if it WAS just WIFOM, it means it couldn't be honestly considered, so better off killing for other reasons. Guillo's thread influence, again, wouldn't mean much if he town read scum, and scum read town. I keep town leaders alive if I pocketed them or they have super inaccurate reads.
So, what was he killed for? If his reads weren't completely inaccurate, that means at least 2 scum are within you/oliverz/PQRN/Voss. The three that were not you all were on Frinckles. If you're town, why are 2 scum passing up the opportunity to get YOU killed, over someone just posting shark stuff the whole game (even if Frinckles is a good player, he hadn't done anything yet)?
I don't believe the "medic claim" would be an actual consideration by scum. It could be an easy excuse - but I don't believe they would ACTUALLY kill because of that, especially someone openly claiming medic day 1? That would open up the consideration the medic would self heal because they are out in the opening.
What happened then was this :
So about that post :
MM, why do you not consider it's renegade that pushed away from a PQ lynch ? I might have missed something, but i did feel that people were pushing away from PQR, and i did feel renegade and voss doing such. Voss i guess was okay. Renegade claimed scumreading them earlier, so it makes absolutely no fucking sense.
@Lag gimme your thoughts on everyone rn
--
@Stealthbomber16 @Renegade
Can I get a top 3 town/scum from y'all?
Maybe scum felt threatened by him, in the sense that he was not scumreading them yet. He did mention fear-killing a few times - maybe that's what that NK was ? Admittedly it seems unlikely, but if you can kill a good player and let town struggle with the WIFOM, that sounds good. Note that the votes at the end of D1 seem coherent with the idea that scum is going after players they fear...
@NotPaopan you too
@Voss
Obviously, this was quite a while ago, but tell me how this has changed, if at all. Describe what made things change. I wanna know your thought processes and how your reads have developed, basically.
There are enough people in this game that have enough experience to know that killing a town leader that is volatile with their reads is always a good NK option.
There are also people in this lobby that have killed people in the past just because they were top poster. That's what the Paopan wolf team did in the Last Hope FM.
When it has the potential to frame people? That's just icing on the cake.
I think you're severely over-analyzing the NK, who else do they kill? Some less influential player with accurate reads casting huge amounts of suspicion on their slots because that kind of kill would make zero sense?
Do I think there could be wolves among you/oliver/PQ/Voss?
Yes, but I also think it's >rand that wolves are just happy to see town wagons at end of day and stay out of it. Because it seriously makes no sense for them to vote Frinckles in the interest of saving me.
If you check my last reads list, you'll see that he was in the bottom 2, and I gave justification as to why I picked him over Paopan.
I couldn't understand the ramifications of a Lag vs Oliverz yeet yesterday and didn't want to pick wrong. I honestly still don't. And apart from that, you've given me pause on Oliverz being scum bc you said he's town stream of conscious talking. As for Lag, I think more content from him could make me figure out if he's scum or not, but Lag didn't shitpost.
I really don't like how you keep saying that I said "I'd vote for Lag or Oliver over PQ". It's literally in my ranking order. PQ is higher than Lag or Oliver, so I'd vote for either of them. Frinckles was lower than Lag, Oliver and PQ, saw him as a viable option, and went with that. I don't like the way you're demonizing me based on that post, as I see nothing wrong with it.
FM XVII: Bonney Jewelry (Journalist)
FM XVIII: Kalou (Savage Godfather)
FM XX: Joseph Bertrand (Marshall)
FM XXI: USA (Escort)
FM XV: Whiskey (Whore)
I can do this at some point soonish, sure, but this is an older list and the newer one I posted a bit later. I don't think I had Guillo as top town, and had MM as top town.
I think this might have been the last thing I posted.
Town
Renegade
MM
Stealth
PQRnHack
Town lean
Lag
Guiro
Oliverz
Gikkle
Can go
Frinkles
Loldebite
Paopan
FM XVII: Bonney Jewelry (Journalist)
FM XVIII: Kalou (Savage Godfather)
FM XX: Joseph Bertrand (Marshall)
FM XXI: USA (Escort)
FM XV: Whiskey (Whore)
The three/four people I expected scum to kill were as follows:
Guillo, PQRnhack, Stealthbomber, and MM
I think PQRn is a strong player, with good thoughts when he's town. Stealthbomber would be a safe kill on someone who seems at least somewhat experienced, and isn't in the immediate PoE (at least day 1). MM is a good player. Guillo, obviously, was quite influential.
There were options. Heck, they could have killed you if they didn't care about the fact they'd be resolving the wagons.
It's possible, I suppose, that they killed Guillo for the sole reason he was influential, ignoring the accuracy of his reads. It just seems less likely to be the case, to me.
@oliverz144 same thing I asked Voss; how has this changed, if at all? Describe your thought process between these changes.
Oh you're really gonna ask the dude who solved the last game from pure vote analysis to do vote analysis? Sure, we can do that.
Frinckles (4 [L-3]):
PQRnHack, oliverz144, Gikkle, Voss
NotPaopan (1 [L-6]):
Lag
PQRnHack (1 [L-6]):
Marshmallow Marshall
Voss (1 [L-6]):
NotPaopan
Lag (4 [L-3]):
Guillo, Renegade (Mayor), Frinckles
oliverz144 (1 [L-6]):
Stealthbomber16
Renegade (1 [L-6]):
Loldebite
1. You were the only person voting Pao on day 1 for pretty much the full day. That points to a likely bus. You two would be scum together.
2. Second scum would be one of the frinckles voters, outlined in orange. Analysis says it's Voss because that's who Pao was voting, but I've been mindmelding with Voss so I don't think it's him.
Maybe there is one, although it seems unlikely.
Yes, lag didnt do much, whereas IMO renegade has been purposefully manipulating lynch trains.
Because i thought Frinckles was town, whereas Lag was more of a neutral read of mine. My opposition to the lag train was only because it felt like an easy, AFK target, exactly what would scum vote thinking "no one's gonna scum read me for this : they were not useful !". That part was also true for Frinckles, but in addition to that i had good feelings about his posts, so i wanted him to not die, thinking him town.
Anyway, this all happened rather quickly so i had no time to calmly, rationally think about it.
Oh, this actually reminded me of a line of thought I had an hour ago that I completely forgot about because I didn't really think it was any good. Lag kept suggesting mafia would genuinely think Guillo was the medic, despite the fact Paopan claimed medic, which indicates maybe Lag knows something about Paopan we don't?
I don't know, could mean nothing, just a thought that popped into my head.
tl;dr : i considered voting Lag to protect Frinckles
Sorry I somehow completely missed this.
I look at scum in groups. Lag/Pao/Oliver seems likely to me right now, Oliver/Renegade/PQ would be the other most likely group. I’m not sure which is more likely to me.
After writing this out I… don’t actually know why I scumread Oliver so much. Seems like a gut feeling. I’m going to look into this more.
What is the 334 game people are referring to?
Killing Guillo has one additional side benefit for the Corrupt: it helps softly frame Lag, as Guillo was on the end-day counter-wagon to Frinckles: Lag. More reason to get that States Attorney claim in the air, in case it was originated by a scum~Attorney who will pretend to be town~Attorney placing a vote on scum-suspect Lag to "help town make the right lynch D2". Renegade was the sole other living Lag-voter, but they shot Guillo and not the Mayo, hmm
But of course I am over-thinking all this and the possibilities of them framing me, Lag, or anyone else.
ofc that's assuming that Lag is actually townie. On the other hand, maybe Lag shot Guillo cuz scurred
@Stealthbomber16
this is one of my reasons of a S!Oliverz, because of the weird take on my view on Gikkle. Guillo thought the same.
FM XVII: Bonney Jewelry (Journalist)
FM XVIII: Kalou (Savage Godfather)
FM XX: Joseph Bertrand (Marshall)
FM XXI: USA (Escort)
FM XV: Whiskey (Whore)
I am not so sure anymore tbh, and can't decide what to do with either Lag or Oliver anymore. Both are weird. Oliver conveniently being on Frinckles and never addressing PQ as far as I know makes me wonder, and Lag is just... not towny. They're not specially scummy, they just don't meet the standard I hold them to.
As dumb as that may be, I really, really like this part. It's literally saying "Yes, that is what I said, and that is what I think, but just because of my list, which I stick to, and I see nothing wrong with this." I guess you might be town after all.
-vote PQRnHack
We should be in a 7 v 3 now. Mislynch+kill(unless healed) leads to 5v3, with 5 votes to hammer. Here's to hoping they dont have BOTH the Mayor AND the General on the scum team.
Is it just me or is this incredibly weak lol? "I voted Frinckles because I have chronic hate against fluff and jokes"? Really, so over any actual read, you just go for that? I have doubts. Oliver is sending contradictory signals this game ;-;
There's a difference between being all over the place to solve and creating a twisted narrative that puts yourself in a townie's position, and then trying to "stick" game events around that townie position. It feels unnatural, much like in Once Upon a Town where he spammed nonsense about himself and ended up surviving thanks to it.
As I already said, the gamestate changed incredibly fast and the Frinckles lynch was unfathomable from the point of view of someone who hadn't been in the thread for a few hours. This is indicative of scum being unhappy with the gamestate and acting to change it. It's not like there was no valid option other than Frinckles. Scum went in and built the Frinckles wagon for the sake of changing the focus. This means scum were disingenuous in their actions close to EoD, and Oliver's weak justification for voting Frinckles makes me seriously question my initial townread on them... Oliver might be scum here, actually.