S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

[PQRnHack]

@Frinckles whats up WANKA!

[PQRnHack]

The Host is threatening to mod kill me unless I say "You Filthy Aristocrats!"

angleshooter confirmed

[Oberon]

angleshooter confirmed

iu-2.jpeg

[theoneceko]

blink can tell us what he thinks. however, i will still lynch him because he:

1. claimed sheriff
2. committed to his sheriff claim
3. said he wasn't a sheriff.

contradiction

this was blink's excuse when i questioned him:

On L1 I'd literally be game throwing if I kept my sheriff claim when I'm an LTC.

blink and oberon can argue semantics here. however, these quotes prove that blink ran away from the thunderdome:

This is far from civil im at L1 lol.

I'm not claiming sheriff anymore

Yes I fake claimed instantly during day one to reaction test that is correct.

unlike pqrn and varcron, who both claimed sheriff to fucking troll, blink claimed it to thunderdome the real sheriff. if that didn't work, he would get someone outside of the thunderdome lynched. lag described blink's actions perfectly in this quote:

Not to mention scum~blink had a pretty clear winning strategy of thunderdome someone, then scumpaint someone else to the point of getting someone outside the thunderdome lynched.

i was thinking the same thing, but was afraid of jumping to that conclusion so soon.

anyways, there is overwhelming evidence proving that lag is right about blink. just go to this post in blink's iso:

I still say PQR+Varcron, unless Lag is good at replicating his town meta as scum.

every single quote until this:

Yes I fake claimed instantly during day one to reaction test that is correct.

is him throwing shade at lagattack, varcron, and pqr or sucking up to me. he has been throwing shade at all these slots BEFORE he rescinded his sheriff claim. this proves that lag was right when she said blink thunderdomed the real sheriff while looking for someone else to lynch outside the thunderdome.

[theoneceko]

these walls make me look like i'm spamming ;W;

blink and oberon might argue that lag and i are both mafia, but that would require convincing town that oberon is the real sheriff. however, oberon's sheriff claim is so bad that i currently don't need to pull up more quotes and analysis.

[theoneceko]

wifom is the only weapon scum have right now.

uwu hewwo !!! guwud night.

[Oberon]

oberon found it suspicious that varcron fake-claimed sheriff:





he even put a vote down even though this game is l-3. note how WEAK oberon sounds when talking to varcron. also, let me quote a post above again with a portion emphasized:



oberon thinks varcron is "kinda wolfy" for claiming then unclaiming sheriff, but even though blink did the same thing, he said:



oberon can't commit to anything because his teammate just got outed (and is 100% getting lynched today), so he's trying to play the negotiator.

Claiming Sheriff as a meme and then unclaiming it is wolfy. It’s too pro-town, a quick way of distancing oneself from pressure over the fakeclaim. Hence why it is scummy.

Also, claiming Sheriff as scum does not have any benefits as Mafia; it’s not a gambit. If Mafia does it, then they’re just trolling. No contradiction.

[theoneceko]

Claiming Sheriff as a meme and then unclaiming it is wolfy. It’s too pro-town, a quick way of distancing oneself from pressure over the fakeclaim. Hence why it is scummy.

Also, claiming Sheriff as scum does not have any benefits as Mafia; it’s not a gambit. If Mafia does it, then they’re just trolling. No contradiction.

bro i get the feeling you'll do the same thing. no one besides blink will believe you're the actual sheriff, and i'm pretty sure you know it too.

[theoneceko]

@Oberon if you're going to thunderdome me, then fucking go for it. pqrn might be a dumbass and say "oh, ceko went back on his word about 100% lynching blink" then lynch me. blink has been trying to pocket pqrn, and you didn't say that pqrnhack's sheriff fake-claim was wolfy. however, ur focused on varc bc he made a meme post.

however, the only exception to this statement (which i unfortunately didn't think of) was you thunderdoming me. i can see blink scumreading me for pushing to lynch him and scumreadong for pushing to lynch you. so my hands must be tied here UWU.

nah. even if i get lynched, blink and u are going next. my official poe if i somehow get mislynched is blink => oberon. scum already lost. i think u realized this, bc u left for a few hours after i left all those walls >_>

inb4 "real life issues." sorry, not buying it. i have you as lock scum.

so. do you want to thunderdome me?

[theoneceko]

@Oberon if you're going to thunderdome me, then fucking go for it. pqrn might be a dumbass and say "oh, ceko went back on his word about 100% lynching blink" then lynch me. blink has been trying to pocket pqrn, and you didn't say that pqrnhack's sheriff fake-claim was wolfy. however, ur focused on varc bc he made a meme post.

however, the only exception to this statement (which i unfortunately didn't think of) was you thunderdoming me. i can see blink scumreading me for pushing to lynch him and scumreading me for pushing to lynch you. so my hands must be tied here UWU.

nah. even if i get lynched, blink and u are going next. my official poe if i somehow get mislynched is blink => oberon. scum already lost. i think u realized this, bc u left for a few hours after i left all those walls >_>

inb4 "real life issues." sorry, not buying it. i have you as lock scum.

so. do you want to thunderdome me?

fixed that

[Oberon]

@Oberon if you're going to thunderdome me, then fucking go for it. pqrn might be a dumbass and say "oh, ceko went back on his word about 100% lynching blink" then lynch me. blink has been trying to pocket pqrn, and you didn't say that pqrnhack's sheriff fake-claim was wolfy. however, ur focused on varc bc he made a meme post.

however, the only exception to this statement (which i unfortunately didn't think of) was you thunderdoming me. i can see blink scumreading me for pushing to lynch him and scumreadong for pushing to lynch you. so my hands must be tied here UWU.

nah. even if i get lynched, blink and u are going next. my official poe if i somehow get mislynched is blink => oberon. scum already lost. i think u realized this, bc u left for a few hours after i left all those walls >_>

inb4 "real life issues." sorry, not buying it. i have you as lock scum.

so. do you want to thunderdome me?

No

[Oberon]

Yeah PORNHack's Sheriff claim wasn't scummy he invalidated it in his first post. It's not the claim itself that's scummy. It's also not retracting that's scummy; it's the context. Claiming Sheriff as a joke, and then unclaiming a few minutes later is too pro-town. Which is why it's scummy. Scum do that to avoid pressure.

[theoneceko]

No

do you still claim sheriff or not?

[Oberon]

do you still claim sheriff or not?

Yes

[theoneceko]

Yeah PORNHack's Sheriff claim wasn't scummy he invalidated it in his first post. It's not the claim itself that's scummy. It's also not retracting that's scummy; it's the context. Claiming Sheriff as a joke, and then unclaiming a few minutes later is too pro-town. Which is why it's scummy. Scum do that to avoid pressure.

idk why you're repeating yourself, but i'll humor you.

ur scumreading varc for doing something that "is too pro-town." ur either scum or playing badly as town. either way, town shouldn't listen to you.

[theoneceko]

Yes

>.<

ur obviously baiting me, so i'll just ignore your slot for now.

[Oberon]

>.<

ur obviously baiting me, so i'll just ignore your slot for now.

Not baiting you, but that's a good idea. :P

[Oberon]

idk why you're repeating yourself, but i'll humor you.

ur scumreading varc for doing something that "is too pro-town." ur either scum or playing badly as town. either way, town shouldn't listen to you.

You just misunderstand what I'm saying. And no I'm not playing badly But you're playing emotionally and that makes me play emotionally as well.

I'll give you an example of something that's too pro-town to come from town: If you reveal as Marshal in the middle of the day, and a dude instantly PMs you his role - he is probably Mafia. What Varcron did falls under the same heading: too pro-town.

[theoneceko]

Not baiting you, but that's a good idea. :P

it is, because you claimed sheriff but won't thunderdome my sheriff claim. you don't even care that i'm hard-claiming sheriff.

even @blinkskater should scumread you for that.

[Oberon]

it is, because you claimed sheriff but won't thunderdome my sheriff claim. you don't even care that i'm hard-claiming sheriff.

even @blinkskater should scumread you for that.

I don't scumread you because I don't think you're Mafia I don't care about your claim.
I don't see why Mafia would fake claim sheriff in this setup tbh. Trade 1 Town for 1 Mafia.

[theoneceko]

You just misunderstand what I'm saying. And no I'm not playing badly But you're playing emotionally and that makes me play emotionally as well.

I'll give you an example of something that's too pro-town to come from town: If you reveal as Marshal in the middle of the day, and a dude instantly PMs you his role - he is probably Mafia. What Varcron did falls under the same heading: too pro-town.

you've been the opposite of emotional this whole game, mr. negotiator.
lag is town. sorry

i swear lag is going to yell at me again for talking to scum ;W;

[Oberon]

THE FUCKING OBJECTIVE WAY TO PLAY THIS SAVE:
SHERIFF PUBLICALLY REVEALS

IF NO ONE COUNTER CLAIMS, GREAT, SHERIFF LEADS TOWN.

IF YOU GET TWO SHERIFF CLAIMS, EVEN BETTER, YOU LYNCH ONE SINCE THEY ARE SCUM AND THE OTHER IS REAL SHERIFF.

THAT WHOLE STRATEGY DOESN'T WORK IF YOU LET ONE OF THE COUNTER CLAIMS OUT OF IT. THAT'S HOW YOU LET MAFIA WIN MORE OFTEN THAN TOWN - THAT'S WHY HELZ SAID IN THE SETUP THREAD THAT HE THINKS THE SAVE IS TOO SCUM FAVORED - BECAUSE PEOPLE GET COLD FEET AND LET SCUM GET AWAY WITH SHIT.


But fuck me for wanting to stick to the optimal strategy, right? Apparently wanting to stick to the optimal strategy to win and pushing hard for the person I read to be far scummy in the thunderdome makes me scum.

I think you're angry because Town isn't playing according to your notions of what "objectively" correct play is, and because this outs you as Mafia.

[theoneceko]

I think you're angry because Town isn't playing according to your notions of what "objectively" correct play is, and because this outs you as Mafia.

guys, look at how hard oberon is tunneling lag! oberon must be really emotional right now

[PQRnHack]

I think you're angry because Town isn't playing according to your notions of what "objectively" correct play is, and because this outs you as Mafia.

How does anything stated "out" Lag as Mafia, thought?

[PQRnHack]

though*

[Oberon]

How does anything stated "out" Lag as Mafia, thought?

Well if blink flips citizen, I would argue that it heavily incriminates Lag and Varcron (who are in his PoE).

[Varcron]

Well if blink flips citizen, I would argue that it heavily incriminates Lag and Varcron (who are in his PoE).

Quite frankly as much as it would be good for Blink to flip.

We have two "real" sheriff claims. Ceko and you, Oberon.

In my POV we should start there before dealing with citizens fake claiming then retracting their claims (me, PQR, and Blink)

[Varcron]

Quite frankly as much as it would be good for Blink to flip.

We have two "real" sheriff claims. Ceko and you, Oberon.

In my POV we should start there before dealing with citizens fake claiming then retracting their claims (me, PQR, and Blink)

Because look at it this way

We have 3 public citizen claims (3 slots total) and we have 2 sheriff claims (1 slot total)

Explain to me how there is not one scum between you two.

[theoneceko]

my original plan was to lynch blink.

however, we can turbo oberon right now.

[theoneceko]

@Varcron who do you think is the real sheriff?

[Varcron]

In my POV here's what happens in the scenario of a Ceko v Oberon Thunderdome

If we lynch Oberon, and he flips scum. That would mean that scum is likely blink. Ceko and myself in this situation would be town by POE

If we Lynch ceko, and he flips scum, that incriminates lag, myself, and confirms Oberon (since ceko has been defending our slots)

If we Lynch Oberon and he flips town, that means blink is confirmed with him and vice versa with ceko flipping town incriminating Oberon and confirming me.


Those are the two best courses of action to confirm and out scum in my POV

[theoneceko]

i love how varc is giving scum more opportunities, just like he did last game. i screamed "lynch zzorange," then u said "lynch wrath."

i'm totally fine with lynching oberon, but i did say earlier i was 100% lynching blink. do u see how ur forcing me to be inconsistent, and how scum may use that against me? i need ur vote on a scum because pqr isn't exactly reliable.

[theoneceko]

varc, who do u think is the real sheriff? if u say 50/50, then i'll drop another wall explaining why oberon's sheriff claim is so bad.

[Varcron]

@Varcron who do you think is the real sheriff?

I think you are, my brain and gut are lining up with this one.

-vote Oberon

[theoneceko]

-vote Oberon

[theoneceko]

if oberon flips town, lynch blink next.

[Lumi]

Here is the hierarchy in which I analyze the game:

1. Mechanics
2. Motivation
3. The Rest

Someone that is mechanically confirmed is mechanically confirmed, a mechanically confirmed town is town 100% of the time, no matter how scummy they appear otherwise. A mechanically confirmed scum is scum 100% of the time, no matter how scummy they appear otherwise. Mechanically confirmed information takes precedence over everything.

Most people seem to agree with mechanically confirmed information being most important.

But where people seem to disagree is in what I think is the second most important part of analyzing other slots: Motivation.

You have to assume that the other players in the game are (somewhat) rational actors - that is to say that they will do things that they think will advance their win-con as opposed to doing things that they think will work against their win-con. By analyzing the upsides and downsides of decisions from other players perspectives there is a LOT of useful information to be gained.

And then the bottom rung in the hierarchy is everything else. I literally just participated in a game where 80% of the "tonal reads" "meta reads" etc etc were dead wrong and it lead to the first two lynches being town and a Templar lynch instead of a Darkness lynch. That stuff is only very marginally useful in comparison to the first two.

Mechanics
So right off the bat, we have 3 players hard-claim sheriff.

It is very hard to imagine a scenario where the real sheriff is not one of these three players. Which means the remaining two players are either citizens or mafia.

Additionally blink backed down from his sheriff hard-claim, so he is certainly not the real sheriff of the group.

So let's analyze the motivations behind each sheriff claim to get more information.

Motivations
I'll start with blink because given what has happened he MUST be either mafia or citizen:

blinkskater
Citizen POV
I'll link #186

Town has a at least a 50% winrate assuming they follow the strategy that I outlined. 50% winrate is pretty great given that most mountainous setups have town winning only around 30% of the time, and Helz himself said he wouldn't play this setup because it's too scum favored. So 50% winrate given those facts IS great.

If scum CC's sheriff and town sticks to the strategy then blink's first two points are protecting against a scenario which would increase town's winrate from 50% to 62.5%. Protecting against something which only helps town as a citizen is just silly, but since we're assuming blink is a citizen in this citizen POV, then that means blink just didn't realize the implications of a mafia CC'ing. Or he did and just didn't care.

The rest of his points are about trying to bait out reactions or force mistakes. But tbh, doesn't even make that much sense from citizen~blink's POV. He HAD to have realized that I would commit to the optimal town strategy and only vote inside of the thunderdome. Which means he must have been banking on being able to convince the other two townies, including the real sheriff that he is CCing, that he is actually citizen and that they should totally lynch someone not in the thunderdome? I am seriously struggling to come up with a scenario where this play makes sense from a citizen~blink POV.

The only one I can come up with is that blink is just so arrogant that he thinks that game theory itself doesn't apply to him and he can play however he wants. Which... is actually not that unlikely of a scenario, which just makes me even more pissed at blink.

Scum POV
I detailed this extensively in #104

Given that blink thinks he can claim sheriff and then get out of it as either alignment. The difference is that there is marginal upside to this play when he does it as citizen, and a near instant-win for when he does it as mafia.

theoneceko
Citizen POV
As I mentioned earlier claiming Sheriff as citizen just makes no sense. I know ceko respects my ability to analyze the game enough to never try that kind of play, especially since he knows there'd be nothing that could convince me to not thunderdome the two sheriff claims. Therefore ceko isn't citizen.

Sheriff POV
Of course you claim Sheriff if you're Sheriff, lol

Scum POV
I could actually see this happening... ceko playing in a way to suicide out of the game ASAP since he doesn't like playing scum. While simultaneously playing in a way that I wouldn't expect at all, making it so I trust ceko and mislynch the real sheriff. I think the motivation to play this way does exist for a mafia~ceko.

Oberon
Citizen POV
Like I said before, when analyzing blink, the only people I can see making a Sheriff claim when they're citizen are people that are arrogant enough that they think game theory doesn't apply to them. Oberon half ticks that box for me given him letting MM reach L-1 in the last game with his fake red check. But Oberon's claim hits a little bit differently for me here. I could see Oberon reading blink as town and so now he's trying to discredit the Sheriff thunderdome by also claiming Sheriff and then eventually backing down, just like blink did.

Sheriff POV
Of course you claim Sheriff if you're Sheriff, lol

Scum POV
Realizing that blink is about to be lynched, claiming sheriff to try to get someone who hasn't claimed sheriff lynched makes a lot of sense for scum here as a hail mary play. Especially since he has the out that I described in my Citizen POV - he can act like he just thought blink was actually town. It makes a lot of sense because just like how claiming sheriff and backing down like blink did if we're in a citizen~oberon world would discredit the thunderdome, it discredits it just as much in a scum~oberon world.


Conclusions:
Analyzing the motivations of players that have claimed sheriff, from all of their points of view, claiming sheriff as citizen makes little sense, whereas it outlines a clear gameplan as mafia. I outlined a strategy that guarantees us at least a 50% winrate - but that falls apart if we don't think to the strategy. When someone hardclaims sheriff, they are in the thunderdome and the exits are sealed. The only way town can have a sub-50% winrate is by getting cold feet and not holding people to their hard claims.

I think the mafia team is Oberon/blink with ceko as the real sheriff.

[Lumi]

inb4Oberon scum paints me for making a wall post

[theoneceko]

@LagAttack UWU

wanna hammer? UWU?!?

oberon cc's my sherff claim but refuses to thnderdome me xD

[Lumi]

@LagAttack UWU

wanna hammer? UWU?!?

oberon cc's my sherff claim but refuses to thnderdome me xD

UWOWU HEWWO!!!

[Oberon]

Are you guys retarded? Why the fuck would you hammer someone not even 24 hours in?

[Lumi]

@LagAttack UWU

wanna hammer? UWU?!?

oberon cc's my sherff claim but refuses to thnderdome me xD

I want to hear your and Oberon's thoughts about my wall post first

[Oberon]

I want to hear your and Oberon's thoughts about my wall post first

I mentioned you

[Oberon]

If I get hammered, I strongly advise you to Lynch the hammerer. Don't reward poor play.

[Oberon]

So you think the team is me and blink? Really? And both scum claimed TPR, because, why?

[theoneceko]

I want to hear your and Oberon's thoughts about my wall post first

psshh. i hate it.

i agree with the conclusion, but u haven't gone into detail about my sheriff claim and oberon's sheriff claim. the fact u wrote one sentence about how i could be sheriff, but wrote a paragraph on how i may be a power-wolfing scum, makes me look more likely to be scum xD.

[Oberon]

Ugh you guys are fucking morons, no offence. Ceko is a tunnelling retard who refuses to listen to reason and just gutvotes because he's terrified of evil blink pocketing him with an objectively awful play if he's Mafia. And on top of all that wants to hammer early because ??? Yeah I don't know, I'm lost. You lost me. None of it makes any sense and you are just fucking dolts.

[Oberon]

@theoneceko learn to fucking play mafia. don't just tunnel mindlessly on one/two people all day because of mechanical claims. have you thought that people don't always follow the mechanical "play" because its not always advantageous to do so? do you incorporate anything into your view of mafia that a robot couldn't replicate?

[Oberon]

Like seriously y'all are about to Lynch a town NOT EVEN 24 hours into D1. Fuck off. Have you heard of something called "pressure everyone first" and try to gather as much info as possible?

[Oberon]

You know what the best part of this is? It is actually possible blink is Mafia (I never said he wasn't), but if you guys lynch me you'll never know