It's important because if the probability that shadows had no kill-capable roles were something like 70% - then the play would definitely just be for town power roles to reveal and laugh at the shadows inability to stop them.
But there's a 64% chance that the Shadows do have a kill-capable supporting role - which would have been leveled up last night
I already calculated the chances of Shadows receiving killing roles.
And it seems as though the Darkness really did decide to level them up to lv 2. That can only mean that At least one of their roles has killing if it's of such importance.
wait, the chances of there being two stealthy assassins is ZERO.
if wrath kills tonight, he is literally confirmed stealthy assassin. he could also be slime, bc slime also cleans kills.
This isn't where i parked my car.....
@WrathCyber if ur actually stealthy assassin, you'd actually tell us who u hid behind last night as a rogue, bc that will DEFINITELY give us some clues
Magus Level ups take place during the day and are received at the start of the night - so if it were a Magus level up then they would be level 2 at the start of the night, get a level 2 action, and then be leveled back down to level 1 at the end of the night.
Wizard level ups take place during the night - so with a wizard level up they would be level 1 at the start of the night, get a level 1 action, then be leveled up to 2 and back down to 1 at the end of the night
Nah I would expect darkness to lv up their buddies ASAP to unlock more abilities. Weigh this with having to underlevel a villager twice just to kill them (not accounting that the villager underleveled can ask magus for a level the day after)
Oh nvm Blink is saying he’s Villager and possibly got levelled up and down in the same night
@blinkskater
paopan is yuesford
Newly minted heroes at start of night still get to use their night action, the rogues could have theoretically then formed a redirect train passing some action around to 4 different people, yielding them all level 2. (Or they could have redirected separate actions, ignoring town power roles since in this silly scenario they'd all be rogues, there are still potentially 4 other roles with night actions)
So still 3 stealthy assassins is possible.
But there is such a stupidly small chance that we have that, it's not even really worth talking about lol
oberon softed elemental magus, who knows what his strategy is this game
@Oberon why were you telling ppl you'd kill them during eod?
i want to remove the possibility that you're scum pulling off some huge gambit
@blinkskater can you remind me who you think are lagattack's partners?
also i don't trust ur meta read of numbertwo, last time i trusted a meta read it was mm's meta read on ozy. which almost made me the sixth vote on ozy
First thing in the whole thread that blink has said that I agree with.
Magus should not reveal at all costs, if they're about to be lynched, they should claim a town hero role.
In the 36% chance that scum have no kill-capable roles, eliminating Magus is their only path to victory barring 6 mislynches
In the 64% chance that scum does have kill-capable roles, it increases the KPN from 1 to 2, not worked it out, but I think 2 KPN from scum puts town in a mislynch and lose scenario for the rest of the game
i went nuts. after ozy was lynched, i was about 50 posts below ozy, now im about 30 above ozywho and way above every active player
I originally thought it was Wrath attack going into N2, and I guess at the start of the day but after Lag has posted, I really don't think he's playing the "im scum i'm going to fake jester" card. I think he legitimately might be jester. I need to look into the players that were on Ozy EOD. I believe one scum garneted on that train has to be Lag's partner. Like I said it was wrath but now I'm not sure. If he IS Lag's partner and is playing the way he is then after the game I will admit that he outplayed the shit outta me as much as it hurts.
ALSO your hard defense of LAG today, and not even wanting to entertain the fact he could be scum pains me because I had a strong TR on you. IDK if this is in ur scum range tonally and to post like this. I want to say NO But I can't ignore the zealot like defense. Give me time to re-analyze the EOD crap and i'll probably have another answer for you.
This isn't where i parked my car.....
I was quoting WrathCyber saying that villagers become a random hero - since they don't they get to choose their hero. Are you actually just trolling me? I wasn't even quoting you lol
Also it actually isn't putting you back at square 1 - Magus level up means you are a hero for the night and get off a hero action before becoming a villager again
You said setup speculation is usually scum indicative - but in this very wild, experimental setup, I feel like setup speculation is actually rather valuable.
As long as it's done at the right time (eg start of the day so it's not distracting from scum hunting when time is running out)
If someone did in fact get leveled up and down simultaneously, they would receive feedback to this effect.