S-FM 327 : Last Hope

[theoneceko]

i swear, i see a world where @Frinckles is scum. he viewed this thread, probably saw me super rage at blink, threw a lenny face out then left because his scumteam is in a position to win

all i've seen from him were noncommittal attacks on varcron and wrath, and some back-and-forth between him and blink. he didn't want to attack lag tho, he said it was bc of "interaction," but i've a hunch it might be that he's scum and doesn't want to attack someone i clearly super townread.

-vote frinckles

if wrath is actually templar faking stealthy assassin, then just leave his slot alone until he creates more craziness. otherwise, he won't be able to win unless he gets leveled up twice or something

[PQRnHack]

They don't choose to be a hero. They become a random hero.

Dumbo

They have the whole night to choose their role among the Heroes pool, supposing they were Villager.
They can use their role power on the same night they level up, so better not to give the role at the last minute of the night.

"Following night" means the night that follows the EOD level up, so let's say DAY 1 the Magus wants to level up a Villager, then during NIGHT 1 this Villager has to choose a LVL 1 Hero role and become it.

[blinkskater]

If someone did in fact get leveled up and down simultaneously, they would receive feedback to this effect.

I'm sure they would but how would they react to that?

[Oberon]

I'm sure they would but how would they react to that?

I think I would reveal it, I see no reason to hide something like that

[CRichardForumLies]

Well s*** Ozy was a mis elimination and we have no deaths apparently.
I should have realised that Ozy was village when they were still trying to talk things out while being voted.
It wouldn't be a surprise if there were at least 1 shadow if not 2 on Ozy at EoD.

[blinkskater]

i swear, i see a world where @Frinckles is scum. he viewed this thread, probably saw me super rage at blink, threw a lenny face out then left because his scumteam is in a position to win

all i've seen from him were noncommittal attacks on varcron and wrath, and some back-and-forth between him and blink. he didn't want to attack lag tho, he said it was bc of "interaction," but i've a hunch it might be that he's scum and doesn't want to attack someone i clearly super townread.

-vote frinckles

if wrath is actually templar faking stealthy assassin, then just leave his slot alone until he creates more craziness. otherwise, he won't be able to win unless he gets leveled up twice or something

That is in no way shape or form any indication on a scum frinckles cut that shit out you have to look at his agenda.

[Oberon]

Yeah Frinckles’ play is 100% NAI here. He’s had pretty good thoughts

[PQRnHack]

My 2 cents: both Lag and Ozy were town, scum had a free ride D1 given our fuckup. I am not prepared to agree that there was even a train forming on a scum and that redirections were to save scum. I tend to think they're both village (we know Ozy was) and that made it ez for scum to vote whoever and to defend whoever (defend villager A, hang villager B) to make themselves appear towny.

[blinkskater]

I think I would reveal it, I see no reason to hide something like that

What if it would out the MAGus, because of the player that was leveled up? there are other reasons I can think of also...

[Lumi]

yeah only if darkness and magus target the same player tho, and that's a shit chance of happening but lol

Assuming they just target randomly it's a 7.6% chance with 13 players left, 8.3% with 12, 9% with 11, 9.9% with 10, 10.9% with 9, 12.2% with 8, 13.9% with 7, 16% with 6, 18.8% with 5, 22.2% with 4, 25% with 3

But targeting randomly isn't realistic and after Darkness is done leveling up their shadow mates the targets will likely be correlated as both of them target towncore.

So not that unlikely - maybe a 20 or 25% chance a night, which done for several nights in a row means that we will most likely see it happen at least once this game

[Oberon]

What if it would out the MAGus, because of the player that was leveled up? there are other reasons I can think of also...

I’m just gonna go to sleep because I cannot understand anything anyone is saying

[Lumi]

I don't think that's the case

Dumbo

PQR literally just linked to Auwt saying otherwise

[blinkskater]

OzyWho (5 [L-3]):
WrathCyber, PQRnHack, CRichardForumLies, Yuesford, Marshmallow Marshall

This is where i'm currently at.
Richard's thoughts seem to align with my own but he's playing the game in a calculated way.
I do have a strong read on meta read on MM as of now. Some people were saying meta wise he could be scum but I disagree. Day 1 his read on Ozy was bad, that's typical town MM on day 1 SHIT reads.

I don't have strong reads on Yues and PQR either way, but from POE one is likely SCUM.

[Yuesford]

Okay your majesty, in what way do you want me contribute? lol. It's like asking a citizen to look for mafias.

Oh hey I'm claiming day 2 citizen here. I used my vest last night and that makes me confirmed towny. Also, my vest can detect one of the evils in this game. I should've received my findings by now.. But I just realized my prime membership expired so the results may take up to 4 - 14 business days to arrive.

[blinkskater]

PQR literally just linked to Auwt saying otherwise

Yeah but how can they use their ability if they are leveled down?

[Yuesford]

I voted OzyWho cos he voted 4 me. + neko said "he is a scum"

[CRichardForumLies]

OzyWho (5 [L-3]):
WrathCyber, PQRnHack, CRichardForumLies, Yuesford, Marshmallow Marshall

This is where i'm currently at.
Richard's thoughts seem to align with my own but he's playing the game in a calculated way.
I do have a strong read on meta read on MM as of now. Some people were saying meta wise he could be scum but I disagree. Day 1 his read on Ozy was bad, that's typical town MM on day 1 SHIT reads.

I don't have strong reads on Yues and PQR either way, but from POE one is likely SCUM.

Now that you mention it, it seems likely that scum probably jumped on the Ozy train after MM made their case on them which would be vote 3 onwards.
So MM being the first to vote on Ozy looks like a villager who thought they caught a scum and went for it.
Oberon defending Ozy doesn't make sense if they randed scum, they probably wouldn't have been vocal about Village!Ozy if they were scum.
So the slots I'd want to take a look at hard are Wrath, PQR and Yuesford as they joined the Ozy train later.

[PQRnHack]

Voters on Ozy were: myself Wrath CRich Yues MM
Voters on Lag: Blink Oberon Varcron
ceko also changed from Ozy to Wrath, not that it means much

Consider that if both Lag and Ozy are Village, then scum can be spread out between em or even not on em (if town did more of the voting). Oberon YOLO'd MM earlier (which Ozy followed), but again doesnt mean much. But Oberon pushed to defend Ozy very hard and opted to go for Lag, it seems unlikely for scum!Oberon to push a town!Lag in defense of town!Ozy if he already knew that either of them was gonna flip town. For this reason, I think Oberon is town.

And if Lag is scum, then Oberon is even more certainly not scum.

I want to take a closer look at MM.

@Oberon thoughts on ceko? I dont like them pocketing me, almost trying to push me into confirmation bias territory on myself. Such as my earlier suspicion that Wrath might be Templar.

[Lumi]

STOP

who do u think is scum besides blink and numbertwo??

Talking about mechanics is my weakness - I am unable to resist it.

Wrath was on my scum list all of day 1 - but as I mentioned on day 1, they were the least scummy of my scum, so I'm actually inclined to believe their hero claim.

I still think Oberon is scum, although ironically he's towards the less scummy end of it along with Wrath

I really don't like how Richard jumped on the Ozy train, of everyone their jumping on felt the most opportunistic, big scum points from me for that. Combined with how okay they were with just going along with frinckles lynch plan despite them being on it - they're in the middle of my scum list.

Varcron feels scummy too - hard for me to explain why though without doing a more detailed ISO

MM was also the one that started the whole train on Ozy - running against the entire towncore perception of Ozy up to that point - he's either afk town that screwed up, or scum - PoE puts him in town for me now, but he would be my first suspect for scum if any of my other scum reads were cleared/flipped town

[theoneceko]

i'm sad ozy died.
@OzyWho UWU

[PQRnHack]

Now that you mention it, it seems likely that scum probably jumped on the Ozy train after MM made their case on them which would be vote 3 onwards.
So MM being the first to vote on Ozy looks like a villager who thought they caught a scum and went for it.
Oberon defending Ozy doesn't make sense if they randed scum, they probably wouldn't have been vocal about Village!Ozy if they were scum.
So the slots I'd want to take a look at hard are Wrath, PQR and Yuesford as they joined the Ozy train later.

I claim village Idiot. I already used my ability to lynch another villager.

[theoneceko]

Talking about mechanics is my weakness - I am unable to resist it.

Wrath was on my scum list all of day 1 - but as I mentioned on day 1, they were the least scummy of my scum, so I'm actually inclined to believe their hero claim.

I still think Oberon is scum, although ironically he's towards the less scummy end of it along with Wrath

I really don't like how Richard jumped on the Ozy train, of everyone their jumping on felt the most opportunistic, big scum points from me for that. Combined with how okay they were with just going along with frinckles lynch plan despite them being on it - they're in the middle of my scum list.

Varcron feels scummy too - hard for me to explain why though without doing a more detailed ISO

MM was also the one that started the whole train on Ozy - running against the entire towncore perception of Ozy up to that point - he's either afk town that screwed up, or scum - PoE puts him in town for me now, but he would be my first suspect for scum if any of my other scum reads were cleared/flipped town

UWOWU HEWWO!!!

[CRichardForumLies]

Talking about mechanics is my weakness - I am unable to resist it.

Wrath was on my scum list all of day 1 - but as I mentioned on day 1, they were the least scummy of my scum, so I'm actually inclined to believe their hero claim.

I still think Oberon is scum, although ironically he's towards the less scummy end of it along with Wrath

I really don't like how Richard jumped on the Ozy train, of everyone their jumping on felt the most opportunistic, big scum points from me for that. Combined with how okay they were with just going along with frinckles lynch plan despite them being on it - they're in the middle of my scum list.

Varcron feels scummy too - hard for me to explain why though without doing a more detailed ISO

MM was also the one that started the whole train on Ozy - running against the entire towncore perception of Ozy up to that point - he's either afk town that screwed up, or scum - PoE puts him in town for me now, but he would be my first suspect for scum if any of my other scum reads were cleared/flipped town

It's understandable that my vote on Ozy does look scummy yes. I'm still a villager though who screwed up and if I were able to stay up till EoD I probably would have taken my vote off Ozy.
As it is, my time zone is absolutely terrible as usual when it comes to SoD/EoD.

[Lumi]

Talking about mechanics is my weakness - I am unable to resist it.

Wrath was on my scum list all of day 1 - but as I mentioned on day 1, they were the least scummy of my scum, so I'm actually inclined to believe their hero claim.

I still think Oberon is scum, although ironically he's towards the less scummy end of it along with Wrath

I really don't like how Richard jumped on the Ozy train, of everyone their jumping on felt the most opportunistic, big scum points from me for that. Combined with how okay they were with just going along with frinckles lynch plan despite them being on it - they're in the middle of my scum list.

Varcron feels scummy too - hard for me to explain why though without doing a more detailed ISO

MM was also the one that started the whole train on Ozy - running against the entire towncore perception of Ozy up to that point - he's either afk town that screwed up, or scum - PoE puts him in town for me now, but he would be my first suspect for scum if any of my other scum reads were cleared/flipped town

And look at that - my reads are literally the opposite of blink's, yet another reason to think he's scum.

Seriously? Paopan of all people is the one he's labeling as scum??

[Lumi]

It's understandable that my vote on Ozy does look scummy yes. I'm still a villager though who screwed up and if I were able to stay up till EoD I probably would have taken my vote off Ozy.
As it is, my time zone is absolutely terrible as usual when it comes to SoD/EoD.

I don't like your villager claim either tbh. Ceko claimed villager, I know I'm villager, Ozy flipped villager, iirc PQR claimed villager - it's a lot of villagers.

Either the power roles are sitting back and laughing at the plebians fight amongst themselves - or one of these villager claims is fake

[Lumi]

I don't like your villager claim either tbh. Ceko claimed villager, I know I'm villager, Ozy flipped villager, iirc PQR claimed villager - it's a lot of villagers.

Either the power roles are sitting back and laughing at the plebians fight amongst themselves - or one of these villager claims is fake

Paopan claimed villager too

[Oberon]

Voters on Ozy were: myself Wrath CRich Yues MM
Voters on Lag: Blink Oberon Varcron
ceko also changed from Ozy to Wrath, not that it means much

Consider that if both Lag and Ozy are Village, then scum can be spread out between em or even not on em (if town did more of the voting). Oberon YOLO'd MM earlier (which Ozy followed), but again doesnt mean much. But Oberon pushed to defend Ozy very hard and opted to go for Lag, it seems unlikely for scum!Oberon to push a town!Lag in defense of town!Ozy if he already knew that either of them was gonna flip town. For this reason, I think Oberon is town.

And if Lag is scum, then Oberon is even more certainly not scum.

I want to take a closer look at MM.

@Oberon thoughts on ceko? I dont like them pocketing me, almost trying to push me into confirmation bias territory on myself. Such as my earlier suspicion that Wrath might be Templar.

dunno, null atm
kind of keep going back and forth between null and scum
i dont think hes confirmed town as some people make him out to be

[CRichardForumLies]

I think I can count on one hand the number of Forum Mafia games where SoD/EoD doesn't start when I'm sleeping in my timezone.
Pretty bad luck eh?
I should have followed up on my doubts Ozy was a hit by unvoting them before EoD. Yet I was exhausted and needed sleep, which I wish I didn't need.

[Lumi]

UWOWU HEWWO!!!

UWOWU HEWWO!!! UWOWU HEWWO!!! UWOWU HEWWO!!! UWOWU HEWWO!!! UWOWU HEWWO!!! UWOWU HEWWO!!! UWOWU HEWWO!!! UWOWU HEWWO!!!

[PQRnHack]

If someone did in fact get leveled up and down simultaneously, they would receive feedback to this effect.

I don't think this is the case (the feedback part).

Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
@Auwt What happens if a villager is leveled up and down in the same night?
Absolutely nothing, that Villager would stay alive at the level 0.

[CRichardForumLies]

I don't like your villager claim either tbh. Ceko claimed villager, I know I'm villager, Ozy flipped villager, iirc PQR claimed villager - it's a lot of villagers.

Either the power roles are sitting back and laughing at the plebians fight amongst themselves - or one of these villager claims is fake

I mean there are 7 villagers in this setup. So 5 villagers have claimed so far and that fits with the setup.
Conf bias me all you want, though I'm starting to think I made a mistake being in this game.

[PQRnHack]

Just so you guys know, everyone is a Villager claim. Move on.

[CRichardForumLies]

I should have listened to my own advice to take a break from Forum Mafia.
Yet my desire to try this setup said no.

[Oberon]

I mean there are 7 villagers in this setup. So 5 villagers have claimed so far and that fits with the setup.
Conf bias me all you want, though I'm starting to think I made a mistake being in this game.

Damn I’m sad to hear that

[CRichardForumLies]

I should mention that the PRs would want to look like incognito villagers, as that would make them prime killing targets for scum if they're outed.
Oh never mind, I seem to remember Wrath claimed a PR role. If they are really a village PR, then scum are probably not eager to keep them around the next few nights then.

[Lumi]

I mean there are 7 villagers in this setup. So 5 villagers have claimed so far and that fits with the setup.
Conf bias me all you want, though I'm starting to think I made a mistake being in this game.

same lmao

ceko asked me who I thought was scum besides #2 and blink though, there are several people I have labeled as scum more than you - and you have made some solid contributions too IMO that scum probably wouldn't make - such as your scum anti-pairings from earlier that I largely agree with

[Oberon]

Ceko can be scum for the post where he said that I dug myself a hole by claiming Magus

[PQRnHack]

Voters on Ozy were: myself Wrath CRich Yues MM
Voters on Lag: Blink Oberon Varcron
ceko also changed from Ozy to Wrath, not that it means much

Consider that if both Lag and Ozy are Village, then scum can be spread out between em or even not on em (if town did more of the voting). Oberon YOLO'd MM earlier (which Ozy followed), but again doesnt mean much. But Oberon pushed to defend Ozy very hard and opted to go for Lag, it seems unlikely for scum!Oberon to push a town!Lag in defense of town!Ozy if he already knew that either of them was gonna flip town. For this reason, I think Oberon is town.

And if Lag is scum, then Oberon is even more certainly not scum.

I want to take a closer look at MM.

@Oberon thoughts on ceko? I dont like them pocketing me, almost trying to push me into confirmation bias territory on myself. Such as my earlier suspicion that Wrath might be Templar.

Or is this a WIFOM moment, in which Oberon was so arrogant and using all caps and defending like mad that it would be absurd to suspect him of being scum!Oberon? Oooof, the mind games.

[Oberon]

also, idk why anyone thinks me threatening to kill ppl at EoD could be a scum gambit, especially with ozy flipping town, like that doesnt make sense in my mind

[PQRnHack]

Ceko can be scum for the post where he said that I dug myself a hole by claiming Magus

You're not Magus. Such a claim or implication towards it would only be made by:
1) Templar (Wrath poss)
2) Idiot (Wrath also poss hah)

[Lumi]

also, idk why anyone thinks me threatening to kill ppl at EoD could be a scum gambit, especially with ozy flipping town, like that doesnt make sense in my mind

Oberon's saying he'll kill people if they don't vote a certain way read to me as so ridiculous that it's NAI

[CRichardForumLies]

same lmao

ceko asked me who I thought was scum besides #2 and blink though, there are several people I have labeled as scum more than you - and you have made some solid contributions too IMO that scum probably wouldn't make - such as your scum anti-pairings from earlier that I largely agree with

Yeah I've had a bad month Forum Mafia wise and should have continued the break.
Still lets get back to the game shall we?

[Oberon]

You're not Magus. Such a claim or implication towards it would only be made by:
1) Templar (Wrath poss)
2) Idiot (Wrath also poss hah)

Did wrath also say that?

[PQRnHack]

Oberon's saying he'll kill people if they don't vote a certain way read to me as so ridiculous that it's NAI

I tend to agree. He probs had a strong feeling that Ozy was Village and stuck to it just as firmly as I stuck to my guilty vote on Ozy (for me, based on the level-up gambit). I can see Lag and Oberon as town and Scumbags having a joyful night chat as town fucked itself in the rear.

[PQRnHack]

Did wrath also say that?

Say what?

[Oberon]

Say what?

That I’m Magus

[PQRnHack]

That I’m Magus

No, I was referring to his own claims - implied (not directed at you).

[PQRnHack]

To clarify, @Oberon , I meant that "such a claim" - claiming that the poster is Magus - is one of t hose categories.

[blinkskater]

This is fucking shiet guys

[PQRnHack]

This is fucking shiet guys

Yup

-vote Blinkshitter