S-FM 319: ILLUMINΔTI (Ladder) 9P

[Mike]

ILLUMINΔTI (Ladder)
Created by: MattZeD
For 9 players

Link to setup

conspiracy131118_illuminati_250.jpg

RP: This was once a quiet little town. One day, the local mafia decided that it was time to seize control. Or did they? One of you suspects something far more sinister is afoot. It is up to you and your fellow townsfolk to find and eliminate the true threat.

Host Reserves this Color Cyan

Possible Setups:

Setup A	Setup B	Setup C	Setup D	Setup E	Setup F
Godfather	Godfather (Illuminati)	Godfather	Godfather	Godfather (Illuminati)	Godfather
Consigliere	Consigliere	Consigliere (Illuminati)	Consigliere	Consigliere	Consigliere (Illuminati)
Conspiracy Theorist	Conspiracy Theorist	Conspiracy Theorist	Conspiracy Theorist	Conspiracy Theorist	Conspiracy Theorist
Mason	Mason (Illuminati)	Hidden Illuminati	Mayor	Mayor (Illuminati)	Mayor (Illuminati)
Mason	Mason (Illuminati)	Mason (Illuminati)	Hidden Town	Hidden Illuminati	Hidden Illuminati
Hidden Town	Hidden Town	Mason	Hidden Town	Hidden Town	Hidden Town
Hidden Town	Hidden Town	Hidden Town	Hidden Town	Hidden Town	Hidden Town
Hidden Town	Hidden Town	Hidden Town	Hidden Town	Hidden Town	Hidden Town
Hidden Town	Hidden Town	Hidden Town	Hidden Town	Hidden Town	Hidden Town

The Hidden Town cannot be Masons or Mayor.
The Hidden Illuminati can be one of Citizen, Sheriff, Doctor, or Escort.


Alive
@Dark Magician
@MattZed
@Frinckles
@yzb25
@MartinGG99
@Auwt
@Marshmallow Marshall
@Renegade
@Mesk514

Reserves
1. Stealthbomber16
2. Bakermir
3. Oberon
4. Helz

Game will start December 17, 2020 at 7pm CST

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DAYS HOURS MINUTES SECONDS

[Mike]

Day 1

The day has Started POST away!

Living Players	Graveyard
@Dark Magician @MattZed @Frinckles @yzb25 @MartinGG99 @Auwt @Marshmallow Marshall @Renegade @Mesk514

Day 1 will end:

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DAYS HOURS MINUTES SECONDS

__________________________
Links Below
__________________________

Night 1

Night 2



Replacements
Stealthbomber16 Replaced Dark Magician Day 1
bakermir Replaced MattZed Day 2 (Family Emergency)

5 votes to hammer.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

-vote MattZed

ILLUMINATI CONFIRMED.

[yzb25]

hi

[yzb25]

Spoiler : read this whenever :

Partially because it's interesting, and partially because it may be relevant to game discussion, I pre-wrote the following post about the odds of illuminati ---

As you hopefully know, there are 6 possible setup types - A, B, C, D, E, F. The type was chosen by feeding A (1), A (2), B (3), C (4), D (5), D (6), E (7) and F ( into an 8-possibility RNG. There are four numbers out of eight where illuminati does not spawn (1, 2, 5, 6). So you may assume the odds are simply 50/50.

However......

Suppose you spawn into the game as a consigliere (not illuminati). Simply by the role you received, you know the game cannot be setup C or setup F because the consigliere is illuminati in those.
Hence, you know the RNG picked 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 or 7. Of these, only 3 and 7 actually have an illuminati. So if you spawned as consigliere, the actual probability given the information you have of illuminati spawning is only 1 in 3 (33.33%), even if to an uninformed observer the probability seems like 50%.

This isn't as perverse as it seems. This is literally like if two people are told to guess whether a die rolled a 6, and the second person was told that the die roll was even. From the POV of the first person, the odds are 1 in 6, but the second person's additional information tells them the odds are 1 in 3.

Extrapolating this logic, here is the "true" probability of illuminati spawning from your POV, given the information your rolecard gives you:

Mayor: 0% chance of illuminati
Mafia: 33.33% chance of illuminati
Mason: 33.33% chance of illuminati
Town random slot: 45.45% chance of illuminati
Conspiracy theorist: 50% chance of illuminati
Illuminati: 100% chance of illuminati (lol)

The point is, varying roles have varying degrees of certainty about the presence of illuminati. For towns and conspiracy theorists, it's effectively a coinflip. But for mafia and certain TPRs, illuminati will seem inherently unlikely.

This may or may not be relevant in forming reads I guess.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Spoiler : read this whenever :

Partially because it's interesting, and partially because it may be relevant to game discussion, I pre-wrote the following post about the odds of illuminati ---

As you hopefully know, there are 6 possible setup types - A, B, C, D, E, F. The type was chosen by feeding A (1), A (2), B (3), C (4), D (5), D (6), E (7) and F ( into an 8-possibility RNG. There are four numbers out of eight where illuminati does not spawn (1, 2, 5, 6). So you may assume the odds are simply 50/50.

However......

Suppose you spawn into the game as a consigliere (not illuminati). Simply by the role you received, you know the game cannot be setup C or setup F because the consigliere is illuminati in those.
Hence, you know the RNG picked 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 or 7. Of these, only 3 and 7 actually have an illuminati. So if you spawned as consigliere, the actual probability given the information you have of illuminati spawning is only 1 in 3 (33.33%), even if to an uninformed observer the probability seems like 50%.

This isn't as perverse as it seems. This is literally like if two people are told to guess whether a die rolled a 6, and the second person was told that the die roll was even. From the POV of the first person, the odds are 1 in 6, but the second person's additional information tells them the odds are 1 in 3.

Extrapolating this logic, here is the "true" probability of illuminati spawning from your POV, given the information your rolecard gives you:

Mayor: 0% chance of illuminati
Mafia: 33.33% chance of illuminati
Mason: 33.33% chance of illuminati
Town random slot: 45.45% chance of illuminati
Conspiracy theorist: 50% chance of illuminati
Illuminati: 100% chance of illuminati (lol)

The point is, varying roles have varying degrees of certainty about the presence of illuminati. For towns and conspiracy theorists, it's effectively a coinflip. But for mafia and certain TPRs, illuminati will seem inherently unlikely.

This may or may not be relevant in forming reads I guess.

Very true, I had already considered that myself... the thing is, it's not useful until we get flips, so I suggest we play this normally for now and start thinking about that stuff when it becomes relevant.

[yzb25]

I think it may be in town's best interests for masons/mayors to claim day 1. It would damage us a little if there isn't an illuminati. But if there is, the illuminati would get totally wrecked. And I think it'd be within our means to survive even if we lose confirmed towns early. We have two mislynches at our disposal. Though I recognise that they'd be reluctant to do that lmao.

[Renegade]

hi

hello

[yzb25]

hello

-vote renegade

uwu / GOOFY

[Renegade]

-vote renegade

uwu / GOOFY

REEEEEnegade

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I think it may be in town's best interests for masons/mayors to claim day 1. It would damage us a little if there isn't an illuminati. But if there is, the illuminati would get totally wrecked. And I think it'd be within our means to survive even if we lose confirmed towns early. We have two mislynches at our disposal. Though I recognise that they'd be reluctant to do that lmao.

Objection. Do that when we have flips, not right out of the gate lol. Else you're basically wasting their lives if there isn't an illuminati. This setup looks like it's designed to punish claims (we don't have many mislynches and we don't even know our exact enemy). I guess it could work for a mayor, though, but masons would involve too much WIFOM about CCing (and in a world with illuminati, it would be even worse because it would give us literally no info).

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Actually, even mayor involves a lot of WIFOM (can be town or illuminati even despite the reveal), so it wouldn't be good either

[MattZed]

I think it may be in town's best interests for masons/mayors to claim day 1. It would damage us a little if there isn't an illuminati. But if there is, the illuminati would get totally wrecked. And I think it'd be within our means to survive even if we lose confirmed towns early. We have two mislynches at our disposal. Though I recognise that they'd be reluctant to do that lmao.

I disagree. If I were the conspiracy theorist, I'd probably shoot anyone who claims mayor/mason: They're either Illuminati or a TPR. If they're Illuminati, I've helped myself in setups B,C,E,F. If they're TPR, I've made it very possible to scumside in setups A/D.

I'm more on team "play this like a regular game." Let's try to find the Mafia for now: AT LEAST one of them is scum. If we're in setups A/D, both need to die, but we still need to kill one of them in setups B/C/E/F. If someone acting scummy flips town (especially Mason/Mayor), then that's a good sign there's an Illuminati.

Also,

-vote Mesk514

@Mesk514 , I'm not letting you go by most of the game not offering opinions. Get your ass in here!

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I disagree. If I were the conspiracy theorist, I'd probably shoot anyone who claims mayor/mason: They're either Illuminati or a TPR. If they're Illuminati, I've helped myself in setups B,C,E,F. If they're TPR, I've made it very possible to scumside in setups A/D.

I'm more on team "play this like a regular game." Let's try to find the Mafia for now: AT LEAST one of them is scum. If we're in setups A/D, both need to die, but we still need to kill one of them in setups B/C/E/F. If someone acting scummy flips town (especially Mason/Mayor), then that's a good sign there's an Illuminati.

Also,

-vote Mesk514

@Mesk514 , I'm not letting you go by most of the game not offering opinions. Get your ass in here!

Shit, I can't call you illuminati confirmed if you say absolutely valid stuff lol. 100 % agreed.

-unvote

[yzb25]

Objection. Do that when we have flips, not right out of the gate lol. Else you're basically wasting their lives if there isn't an illuminati. This setup looks like it's designed to punish claims (we don't have many mislynches and we don't even know our exact enemy). I guess it could work for a mayor, though, but masons would involve too much WIFOM about CCing (and in a world with illuminati, it would be even worse because it would give us literally no info).

But if they come forward, we will rapidly figure out what kind of setup we're actually dealing with and how we should play the game. That is a VERY worthwhile trade. Otherwise, we'd risk having to lynch day 2 without actually being sure what we're even supposed to be lynching - just vague statistical assurance. Early mason claims come with their own minor advantages. Any potential TPR in the town random aside doctor would make drastically better choices with their day 1 / day 2 picks. But the main advantage is the actual direction we'd gain.

[MattZed]

I'm a little torn on what a town mayor should do: A town mayor KNOWS we're in setup D. They're a powerful TPR, and our chances of having a doc to protect them is small. They should probably be revealing D2/D3 when they can help with PoE, but right now they'd just be fodder to a night kill.

[MattZed]

Shit, I can't call you illuminati confirmed if you say absolutely valid stuff lol. 100 % agreed.

-unvote

Join me in pressuring Mesk to contribute?

[yzb25]

I disagree. If I were the conspiracy theorist, I'd probably shoot anyone who claims mayor/mason: They're either Illuminati or a TPR. If they're Illuminati, I've helped myself in setups B,C,E,F. If they're TPR, I've made it very possible to scumside in setups A/D.

I'm more on team "play this like a regular game." Let's try to find the Mafia for now: AT LEAST one of them is scum. If we're in setups A/D, both need to die, but we still need to kill one of them in setups B/C/E/F. If someone acting scummy flips town (especially Mason/Mayor), then that's a good sign there's an Illuminati.

Also,

-vote Mesk514

@Mesk514 , I'm not letting you go by most of the game not offering opinions. Get your ass in here!

I didn't see the one-shot revolver. That changes the calculation. But I'd argue that's unnecessary overreach from a conspiracy theorist cuz they can just check the person and illuminati would get rekt either way if they do actually exist. (they'd get lynched the next day and then the mafia illuminati would die that night). I don't think neuts have any problem siding with evils in the late game either way tbh. But it IS possible to piss off town to the point they don't work with you.

[yzb25]

Eh, it was a long shot either way. We can just play this normally and scumhunt then I guess.

[MattZed]

I didn't see the one-shot revolver. That changes the calculation. But I'd argue that's unnecessary overreach from a conspiracy theorist cuz they can just check the person and illuminati would get rekt either way if they do actually exist. (they'd get lynched the next day and then the mafia illuminati would die that night). I don't think neuts have any problem siding with evils in the late game either way tbh. But it IS possible to piss off town to the point they don't work with you.

I probably should have split up the mason/mayor cases more clearly. Masons are *probably* town and not the strongest Illuminati if they're Illuminati. Mayors, on the other hand, can be lethal. If we're in setup E/F and misyeet today, a night kill on town would give Illuminati the ability to instahammer by revealing their mayor.

[yzb25]

I probably should have split up the mason/mayor cases more clearly. Masons are *probably* town and not the strongest Illuminati if they're Illuminati. Mayors, on the other hand, can be lethal. If we're in setup E/F and misyeet today, a night kill on town would give Illuminati the ability to instahammer by revealing their mayor.

yh, they could reveal and lynch the friendly mafia and steal the night kill.

[Dark Magician]

Ok so I’m Hard Claiming Citizen.
My role is the most useless role for town in this setup.
I am the best ML for town.
I ain’t voting for anyone until I feel strongly on someone.
Also if Illuminate exists, don’t trust any other RT claims.

-vote Dark Magician

[MattZed]

yh, they could reveal and lynch the friendly mafia and steal the night kill.

This would be the worst-case scenario!

Mafia, put your partner's name in your last will. If you ever get yeeted by surprise, it's probably because the Illuminati decided to stealth hammer you. We would need to have a vig/conspiracy theorist shoot your partner for us to have a chance at winning."

If you're thinking "But that's gamethrowing if I'm in setup A/D!" you can always clear your LW if you really believe your partner is also mafia and you're not being yeeted by Illuminati. But even then, would you rather bet on your partner willing solo or on being in setup B/C/E/F?

[yzb25]

tbh, now I sit here and think about it more, 1:43am yzb realizes only town mayor would listen to a request to reveal day 1. Illuminati mayor can just shirk the request and take the free win day 2.

Yup, I think ima put this massclaim idea to bed lol

[yzb25]

This would be the worst-case scenario!

Mafia, put your partner's name in your last will. If you ever get yeeted by surprise, it's probably because the Illuminati decided to stealth hammer you. We would need to have a vig/conspiracy theorist shoot your partner for us to have a chance at winning."

If you're thinking "But that's gamethrowing if I'm in setup A/D!" you can always clear your LW if you really believe your partner is also mafia and you're not being yeeted by Illuminati. But even then, would you rather bet on your partner willing solo or on being in setup B/C/E/F?

that reminds me

Mafia, you have NO reason not to put your mate in your lw for n1 in general

There will be no vigi shot n1. p much the only way you will die n1 is if you are backstabbed by the other mafia. Do NOT let potential illuminati get the nightkill for free.

[MattZed]

Ok so I’m Hard Claiming Citizen.
My role is the most useless role for town in this setup.
I am the best ML for town.
I ain’t voting for anyone until I feel strongly on someone.
Also if Illuminate exists, don’t trust any other RT claims.

-vote Dark Magician

...why are you claiming?

If you're actually a citizen, you WANT to be taking night kills for our TPRs, because we probably don't have a doc. (I'm counting the non-Illuminati GF/Consig and Conspiracy Theorist as TPRs if there's an Illuminati) This really feels a lot more like an Illuminati play: claim citizen so the godfather doesn't shoot you. (Or so the Illuminati godfather doesn't look suspicious for avoiding you)

-vote Dark Magician

[MattZed]

that reminds me

Mafia, you have NO reason not to put your mate in your lw for n1 in general

There will be no vigi shot n1. p much the only way you will die n1 is if you are backstabbed by the other mafia. Do NOT let potential illuminati get the nightkill for free.

I approve of this line of thinking.

[yzb25]

Ok so I’m Hard Claiming Citizen.
My role is the most useless role for town in this setup.
I am the best ML for town.
I ain’t voting for anyone until I feel strongly on someone.
Also if Illuminate exists, don’t trust any other RT claims.

-vote Dark Magician

I'm curious why you make it sound like you're interested in a no-vote, or at least have an aversion to a lynch in general. no-lynches kill day 1s I find

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I'm a little torn on what a town mayor should do: A town mayor KNOWS we're in setup D. They're a powerful TPR, and our chances of having a doc to protect them is small. They should probably be revealing D2/D3 when they can help with PoE, but right now they'd just be fodder to a night kill.

Yea, D1 reveal is bad (and will only come from town who's gonna die N1 anyway, unless there's a doctor, which isn't very likely and shouldn't be gambled on).

Join me in pressuring Mesk to contribute?

I could get behind that, but I saw something else that I'll address in my next post which will warrant my vote...

-vote Dark Magician

tbh, now I sit here and think about it more, 1:43am yzb realizes only town mayor would listen to a request to reveal day 1. Illuminati mayor can just shirk the request and take the free win day 2.

Yup, I think ima put this massclaim idea to bed lol

^ let's just play normally for now
Which leads me to my next post.....

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Ok so I’m Hard Claiming Citizen.
My role is the most useless role for town in this setup.
I am the best ML for town.
I ain’t voting for anyone until I feel strongly on someone.
Also if Illuminate exists, don’t trust any other RT claims.

-vote Dark Magician

This benefits the town in no way. Mislynching isn't a goal, that's dumb lol. By claiming, you're letting scum (whoever they are) target someone who isn't citizen.

But actually, now that I think past face value of this claim, I find it also doesn't benefit scum!DM to do that: it puts him in a bad light at the very beginning without giving any benefits. So even though I strongly disagree with the claim, it's not grounds for lynch imo. Going back to the pressuring mesk to do something plan.

-vote Mesk514

[Marshmallow Marshall]

that reminds me

Mafia, you have NO reason not to put your mate in your lw for n1 in general

There will be no vigi shot n1. p much the only way you will die n1 is if you are backstabbed by the other mafia. Do NOT let potential illuminati get the nightkill for free.

lol this is actually correct. This sentence would be totally nonsensical in every setup but this one xD.

[MartinGG99]

that reminds me

Mafia, you have NO reason not to put your mate in your lw for n1 in general

There will be no vigi shot n1. p much the only way you will die n1 is if you are backstabbed by the other mafia. Do NOT let potential illuminati get the nightkill for free.

Incorrect actually.

Illuminati role variants for the mafia can't backstab/night-kill their mafia buds. The real non-illuminati ones can. Hence why there's two role-cards in the setup for illuminati and non-illuminati ones.

So if there's an illuminati witch hunt the godfather or the consigliere can kill each other if they're the real one

Thus proving them as....uh...."town" non-illuminati.

Unless they're both non-illuminati and they kill each other in a single night, in which case that's very bad if there's illuminati (or very good for town if there isn't illuminati).

[MartinGG99]

Oh and I hardclaim conspiracy theorist.

I'm recanting n1, with full acknowledgement that this gives ~65% chance of just out-right losing on my part.

(50/50 from chances of Illuminati existing and I auto-lose as per role-card, and another 15% chance where I live and rand jester and lose horribly because I hardclaimed my role and intent here).

Since I have an auto-vest on n1, I can only be killed by my own action on N1, thus meaning if I die there is 100% illuminati.

And if I don't die, there 100% is NO illuminati.

I'm partially doing this because I don't wish to live to n2 or n3 having to deal with possible illuminati mind-fuckery.

[MartinGG99]

Oh and I hardclaim conspiracy theorist.

I'm recanting n1, with full acknowledgement that this gives ~65% chance of just out-right losing on my part.

(50/50 from chances of Illuminati existing and I auto-lose as per role-card, and another 15% chance where I live and rand jester and lose horribly because I hardclaimed my role and intent here).

Since I have an auto-vest on n1, I can only be killed by my own action on N1, thus meaning if I die there is 100% illuminati.

And if I don't die, there 100% is NO illuminati.

I'm partially doing this because I don't wish to live to n2 or n3 having to deal with possible illuminati mind-fuckery.

But, on the plus side,

If there is Illuminati then I just saved the non-illuminati faction a ton and don't have to worry about who's mafia and who's town.

[MattZed]

Incorrect actually.

Illuminati role variants for the mafia can't backstab/night-kill their mafia buds. The real non-illuminati ones can. Hence why there's two role-cards in the setup for illuminati and non-illuminati ones.

So if there's an illuminati witch hunt the godfather or the consigliere can kill each other if they're the real one

Thus proving them as....uh...."town" non-illuminati.

Unless they're both non-illuminati and they kill each other in a single night, in which case that's very bad if there's illuminati (or very good for town if there isn't illuminati).

Have you considered that yzb INTENTIONALLY didn't point this out? yzb, MM, and I read that comment and let it slide for a reason.

NAI because if you're scum you could just use your nightchat to expose the flaw in yzb's logic, but c'mon.

[MartinGG99]

Idk about you guys

-vote Skip

but this might be the best bet for now

[Renegade]

Oh and I hardclaim conspiracy theorist.

I'm recanting n1, with full acknowledgement that this gives ~65% chance of just out-right losing on my part.

(50/50 from chances of Illuminati existing and I auto-lose as per role-card, and another 15% chance where I live and rand jester and lose horribly because I hardclaimed my role and intent here).

Since I have an auto-vest on n1, I can only be killed by my own action on N1, thus meaning if I die there is 100% illuminati.

And if I don't die, there 100% is NO illuminati.

I'm partially doing this because I don't wish to live to n2 or n3 having to deal with possible illuminati mind-fuckery.

Wow.

[MattZed]

Oh and I hardclaim conspiracy theorist.

I'm recanting n1, with full acknowledgement that this gives ~65% chance of just out-right losing on my part.

(50/50 from chances of Illuminati existing and I auto-lose as per role-card, and another 15% chance where I live and rand jester and lose horribly because I hardclaimed my role and intent here).

Since I have an auto-vest on n1, I can only be killed by my own action on N1, thus meaning if I die there is 100% illuminati.

And if I don't die, there 100% is NO illuminati.

I'm partially doing this because I don't wish to live to n2 or n3 having to deal with possible illuminati mind-fuckery.

... did you see Mike's very explicit update that Conspiracy Theorists LOSE if they recant when there's an Illuminati?

[Renegade]

Idk about you guys

-vote Skip

but this might be the best bet for now

We don't need to skip yet.

[MartinGG99]

... did you see Mike's very explicit update that Conspiracy Theorists LOSE if they recant when there's an Illuminati?

Yup.

Did you see my very explicit

~65% chance of just out-right losing on my part.

[MartinGG99]

We don't need to skip yet.

Oh.

Well, whatever.

I'm the only conspiracy theorist and there shouldn't be anyone in the game who has a reason to counter-claim me, and the only ones who would want to see me lynched are the illuminati because of the n1 recant.

[MattZed]

PLEASE do not recant N1. If there's an Illuminati, Mafia could shoot a town N1, which after a misyeet and your death brings us 3v3 into D2.

As the designer of this setup, I gave your role a LOT of anti-Illuminati power. This setup really isn't balanced around the possibility you YOLO recant N1. (If you somehow found reason to believe there's no Illuminati first, that's a different story)

[MattZed]

Also there's no way in hell we're skipping against a threat like that: If you become Amnesiac, I want to know what role you could be taking.

[MartinGG99]

PLEASE do not recant N1. If there's an Illuminati, Mafia could shoot a town N1, which after a misyeet and your death brings us 3v3 into D2.

As the designer of this setup, I gave your role a LOT of anti-Illuminati power. This setup really isn't balanced around the possibility you YOLO recant N1. (If you somehow found reason to believe there's no Illuminati first, that's a different story)

Who says the mafia kill is mandatory?

Why are we misyeeting d1?

[Frinckles]

alright there are way too many good liars in this one

[MartinGG99]

Also there's no way in hell we're skipping against a threat like that: If you become Amnesiac, I want to know what role you could be taking.

Well it certainly would be lovely to have an escort around.

Also

Amnesiac: If you remember you were another role, achieve that role's win condition. Otherwise, survive until the end.

I don't need to remember.

[MattZed]

Who says the mafia kill is mandatory?

Why are we misyeeting d1?

We're not necessarily misyeeting D1, but in the worst-case scenario that there's an Illuminati, it's quite likely. (What are the odds we catch an Illuminati D1 when they control 3 votes?)

Sure, Mafia doesn't *have* to kill, but if they think we're in setup A/D, are they really going to pass up the chance to be in a 4v2v1?

[MattZed]

alright there are way too many good liars in this one

tbh I forgot you signed.

[Frinckles]

tbh I forgot you signed.

I was the last sign.

[yzb25]

Tbh Martin I'd support lynching you no matter what if you survive the night. There's no reason to keep around a neutral that's gonna open with such an anti town play. Either we lose our most important anti Illuminati role or you become an anti town neutral.

So make that a 87.5% chance of immediately losing :P