S-FM 316 : The Fooling Party

[MartinGG99]

If Unkown gets proven as Triad DH

then that removes both Matt and Helz from the PoE of triad suspects if I'm understanding correctly

Yzb25 is obviously dead so no need to worry about the fake butler claim

And that leaves 2 triads left in....

Frostbyte + Naz

(Based on reasoning similar to my past solving at #1951)

Unless Renegade is Moulder but rn the fake PR looks like Naz to a large degree

[Frinckles]

we have a 50/50 in frost/matt right?

[MartinGG99]

If Unkown gets proven as Triad DH

then that removes both Matt and Helz from the PoE of triad suspects if I'm understanding correctly

Yzb25 is obviously dead so no need to worry about the fake butler claim

And that leaves 2 triads left in....

Frostbyte + Naz

(Based on reasoning similar to my past solving at #1951)

Unless Renegade is Moulder but rn the fake PR looks like Naz to a large degree

man what a fucking flip by Yzb25 lol

[FrostByte]

Renigade Proven PR

When did that happen? I must've missed something lmfao

[MartinGG99]

we have a 50/50 in frost/matt right?

Matt is proven town I think

if Unkown is triad

unless you feel like arguing that Naz + Renegade are town PR's and that Helz is the fake PR?


actually I should double-check on PR counts

[MartinGG99]

When did that happen? I must've missed something lmfao

renegade claimed the only role capable of doing a house lock-down which was found out by me on n1

with no CC's on that role he's confirmed to be that kind of role, a PR role

[Helz]

we have a 50/50 in frost/matt right?

I believe Matt is confirmed via only cit claim even if you ignore my butler peek.

[Helz]

When did that happen? I must've missed something lmfao

He is the only one to claim locksmith with multiple people reporting locksmith/moulder feedback. His role is confirmed but not his alignment.

[MartinGG99]

actually I should double-check on PR counts

Dragon Head - Unkown
Corrupted Assessor - Frostbyte
Triad Random - Naz (Spy)
Triad Random - Dark Magician (Sourceror)
Town Random - Helz (Butler)
Town Random - Yzb25 (Shopkeeper)
Town Random - Renegade (Locksmith)
Town Random - Frinckles (Scientist)
Town Random - Martin (BD)
Bus Driver - Oberon
Citizen - Mattzed
Citizen - Bakermir
Switcher - Deathworlds



this is what I got

[MartinGG99]

also LOL CA got blocked for two nights straight

[FrostByte]

He is the only one to claim locksmith with multiple people reporting locksmith/moulder feedback. His role is confirmed but not his alignment.

This is what confused me. He could easily be Moulder.

[Helz]

Dragon Head - Unkown
Corrupted Assessor - Frostbyte
Triad Random - Naz (Spy)
Triad Random - Dark Magician (Sourceror)
Town Random - Helz (Butler)
Town Random - Yzb25 (Shopkeeper)
Town Random - Renegade (Locksmith)
Town Random - Frinckles (Scientist)
Town Random - Martin (BD)
Bus Driver - Oberon
Citizen - Mattzed
Citizen - Bakermir
Switcher - Deathworlds



this is what I got

What makes Frostbyte the CA?

[Helz]

This is what confused me. He could easily be Moulder.

I am pretty damn confident that he is. And my reads this game have been on point so far.

[MartinGG99]

I think eliminating Unkown would be best here tbh (presuming no holes of logic / plausibility to my mechanical reasoning of him being confirmed DH)

I really doubt he was predicted to be an elimination today to be bounded by the CA

and if he were, he probably was bounded by somebody that the CA thought was triad

[MartinGG99]

What makes Frostbyte the CA?

Because max 1 more citizen

Both Frost and Matt claimed (directly or indirectly) citizen

Unkown is basically proven DH if I'm not wrong

[Auwt]

@Auwt is the DH RB immune? The rolecard wording is strange. Says the DH acts out the faction kill.

The Dragon Head can be roleblocked, consider the Dragon Head as an Enforcer.

[MartinGG99]

I am pretty damn confident that he is. And my reads this game have been on point so far.

@Helz
@FrostByte

if we eliminate DH and Renegade is a Moulder

HE WILL BECOME DH (due to DH replacement rules)

so that means he wouldn't be able to lock me.

So we can have Renegade lock someone tonight (such as me)

and I can check with my bus swap ability

[FrostByte]

Because max 1 more citizen

Both Frost and Matt claimed (directly or indirectly) citizen

Unkown is basically proven DH if I'm not wrong

Did you miss the part where Helz outed me over and over as TPR?

And MattZed

and yzb

[Helz]

I think eliminating Unkown would be best here tbh (presuming no holes of logic / plausibility to my mechanical reasoning of him being confirmed DH)

I really doubt he was predicted to be an elimination today to be bounded by the CA

and if he were, he probably was bounded by somebody that the CA thought was triad

Thats good reasoning. There is a real potential of his lynch flipping one of the CA's Triad reads or- (tinfoil) themselves.

[Renegade]

The Dragon Head can be roleblocked, consider the Dragon Head as an Enforcer.

k Then Unkown is DH.

[FrostByte]

@Helz
@FrostByte

if we eliminate DH and Renegade is a Moulder

HE WILL BECOME DH (due to DH replacement rules)

so that means he wouldn't be able to lock me.

So we can have Renegade lock someone tonight (such as me)

and I can check with my bus swap ability

Wait, what? You just had me pegged as CA, though? I'm so confused

[FrostByte]

ELI5 please why is unknown DH

[MartinGG99]

Did you miss the part where Helz outed me over and over as TPR?

And MattZed

and yzb

MattZed isn't PR lol

You aren't PR either

that's my solve that I'm pushing

[MartinGG99]

Wait, what? You just had me pegged as CA, though? I'm so confused

Because nobody fits your bill.

Unless you wanna claim TPR and contest Naz for being a Triad Random?

[Renegade]

ELI5 please why is unknown DH

Helz can't be he was RB according to Zeb LW.

It has been confirmed that I've locked homes.

Frinckles is nearly confirmed as scientist.

Naz has correctly identified information before it was presented.

Helz if he isn't DH and is butler then MZ is citizen.

Marino is nearly confirmed due to driving.

[Helz]

@Helz
@FrostByte

if we eliminate DH and Renegade is a Moulder

HE WILL BECOME DH (due to DH replacement rules)

so that means he wouldn't be able to lock me.

So we can have Renegade lock someone tonight (such as me)

and I can check with my bus swap ability

Thats a solid point. I feel like that solves Renegade nicely and would also solve Naz.

[MartinGG99]

Because nobody fits your bill.

Unless you wanna claim TPR and contest Naz for being a Triad Random?

Naz caught the switcher

she can never be CA because of that

by process of elimination I came upon the solve that I posted a few minutes ago

is what I get to because of Yzb25's flip showing who the DH is (Aka Unkown)

[FrostByte]

MattZed isn't PR lol

You aren't PR either

that's my solve that I'm pushing

I wasn't clear. I meant to say that Helz and MZ and yzb all outed me as TPR a million times. I figured it was obvious.

Yes, I'm TPR.

And I got fucking roleblocked N1 and N2 but I don't blame yzb for that

[Helz]

I wasn't clear. I meant to say that Helz and MZ and yzb all outed me as TPR a million times. I figured it was obvious.

Yes, I'm TPR.

And I got fucking roleblocked N1 and N2 but I don't blame yzb for that

The Matt is confirmed

[MartinGG99]

Naz caught the switcher

she can never be CA because of that

by process of elimination I came upon the solve that I posted a few minutes ago

is what I get to because of Yzb25's flip showing who the DH is (Aka Unkown)

And the only Non-PR Non-DH role there is to fit the

1v1 citizen conflict

is that the triad in there must be CA

and with Helz's butler peek on MattZed (and that DW showed that he manipulated MattZed unto me on N1!!!!)

its gotta be you bud

sorry

[FrostByte]

The Matt is confirmed

Unless a cit lied about being TPR earlier in the game yeah

I'm legit surprised no scum claimed cit. I guess they didn't wanna risk getting outed by a stalker or whatever it is in this setup

[FrostByte]

Naz caught the switcher

she can never be CA because of that

by process of elimination I came upon the solve that I posted a few minutes ago

is what I get to because of Yzb25's flip showing who the DH is (Aka Unkown)

Frinckles caught switcher, though? Or am I wrong?

[Helz]

Unless a cit lied about being TPR earlier in the game yeah

I'm legit surprised no scum claimed cit. I guess they didn't wanna risk getting outed by a stalker or whatever it is in this setup

That was my thoughts as well. Cit was literally the best claim for Triad because it bridged all of the slots. Especially given the Mechanical framework I laid out D2 I really expected some Cit CC issues.

[MartinGG99]

Naz (triad PR) + Frostbyte (CA) + Unkown (DH) + Dark Magician (Triad PR)

book it

we can eliminate the DH

and on that night I can check who Renegade locks in order to prove he's not a triad random (with one of the triad randoms dead, and that CA gets the DH role last, if Renegade was Moulder he 100% would be DH once we lynch/eliminate the DH)

and we can re-confirm this solve

[MartinGG99]

Frinckles caught switcher, though? Or am I wrong?

Well

Naz + Frinckles

Frinckles proved switcher activity or presence

Naz proved who the switcher went to on N1

unless you're gonna claim she somehow didn't pay attention to the game very much and SOMEHOW correctly guessed randomly that it was Deathworlds on D2?

[Frinckles]

I wasn't clear. I meant to say that Helz and MZ and yzb all outed me as TPR a million times. I figured it was obvious.

Yes, I'm TPR.

And I got fucking roleblocked N1 and N2 but I don't blame yzb for that

Give role.

And yes Matt is confirmed now. Helz is still not confirmed.

[FrostByte]

Give role.

And yes Matt is confirmed now. Helz is still not confirmed.

War Surgeon

[Helz]

Naz (triad PR) + Frostbyte (CA) + Unkown (DH) + Dark Magician (Triad PR)

book it

we can eliminate the DH

and on that night I can check who Renegade locks in order to prove he's not a triad random (with one of the triad randoms dead, and that CA gets the DH role last, if Renegade was Moulder he 100% would be DH once we lynch/eliminate the DH)

and we can re-confirm this solve

Naz/Renegade I really think will land on Renegade scum but you are right. This pretty much locks the game up for a town win in most situations.

MartinGG MVP for D4 1 hour into the day~

[FrostByte]

Attempted to heal Frinckles n1 and n2, attempted to heal naz n3

[Helz]

War Surgeon

Did you crumb it anywhere that you can point to?

[Helz]

Also what was your reasoning for heal > BG?

[FrostByte]

Did you crumb it anywhere that you can point to?

Nope because I didn't wanna be outed

[FrostByte]

Also what was your reasoning for heal > BG?

Part of it was selfish because I wanted to keep playing, part of it was me worried about vig misfire n1 and n2

[FrostByte]

I always assume that there's WIFOM and crumbed little slick callouts that I'm missing and I factor that into my decisions

[MartinGG99]

Give role.

And yes Matt is confirmed now. Helz is still not confirmed.

But if Helz is a PR role

then that means he must be the sole Triad Random (given that we currently have too many PR claims on D3)

and that Naz is 100% innocent

its a matter of great plausibility imo based on mechanical information

I mean, technically speaking, NOTHING has been confirmed to me other than the feedback and role-card I've gotten. Mafia is always a game about trust, at least for the town, and I trust the mechanical information so far and believe it with a high level of plausibility.

[MartinGG99]

But if Helz is a PR role

then that means he must be the sole Triad Random (given that we currently have too many PR claims on D3)

and that Naz is 100% innocent

its a matter of great plausibility imo based on mechanical information

I mean, technically speaking, NOTHING has been confirmed to me other than the feedback and role-card I've gotten. Mafia is always a game about trust, at least for the town, and I trust the mechanical information so far and believe it with a high level of plausibility.

I would rather a !scum Naz world rather than a !scum Helz world tbh

[FrostByte]

dark magician visited deathworlds last night

Yeah naz is pretty lock town from this. Unless it's a triad big balls play getting rid of switcher early but that would be an oberon level bad move and I don't see that coming from naz

[Helz]

@MartinGG99

The only real risk I saw with your plan is that it ties up PR's leaving the DH open to kill. Short of a Town Naz tracking peek we could just about kiss Frinckles goodbye with almost certainty. But with Frost BG/Doc claim thats no longer possible forcing the kill onto Me, Matt or Renegade.

I feel this is acceptable..

[FrostByte]

Yeah naz is pretty lock town from this. Unless it's a triad big balls play getting rid of switcher early but that would be an oberon level bad move and I don't see that coming from naz

Unless they considered that DM was gonna out deathworlds anyway... which, now that I think about it was pretty likely to happen at that point

[naz]

can confirm fb visited ONLY me last night so he is NOT CA/DH