Quote Originally Posted by Gyrlander View Post
Considering I also wanted to skip and I am Town you can't just lynch Zedus because "he voted to skip". Plus, I remember he did explain a bit. His basic reasoning was something along the lines of "we'll probably lynch a monk today so let's skip instead".
Now the thing changed. There is 3 ppl: Auwt, DM, Martin. I will call them towncore. Noone will lynch them, they have huge weight of being town, because they lynched demon. So the only way demon can win is if one of them is exorcist. If so, demon will kill him this night or next night, and after that he can easy blackmail and manipulate one of two alive towncores to win. This is his only winning strategy for demon.

Another winning strategy for demon works only if Auwt, DM or Martin is demon, sacrificed his ally MM to get town credit and lead the town to hell. Then this strategy already succesful. Low chance that demons realy used that, but if so, they deserved their win. I will cal this "balls of still" strat.

As for town, their optimal strategy is just lynch everyone, but not towncore, and hope that there is no exorcists in towncore. It's easy, for real. But if demons used "balls of steel" strat, they won. Town have no way to get info. Exorcist provides no info. Even if demon is Auwt/DM/Martin and someone will start suspect one of them, he can always play like he is blackmailed. Noone will see the difference. That's the thing you often call WIFOM.

If demons not used "balls of still" and exorcist is not Auwt/DM/Martin, town already won. Demon can do everything he wants, he have no chance to win.

If one of Auwt/DM/Martin is exorcist, demon will get chance to win, killing him. No reason to blackmail someone, he NEEDS to remove one of 3 towncores, else they will just lynch others one by one and win.Every blackmailing act = one more lynch and -1 place for demon to survive. So demon WILL check them one by one, there is NO another way to win for him. If he blackmailed someone n1, he just made one more step to lose. Blackmailing will help only if one of towncore is exorcist and demon kills him.

Thats the complete explaination of possible strats in this game for both sides. This setup cannot be mechanicaly solved, like anti-vaxxers one. There is a lot of "IF" in it. But I noticed every possible "IF". And everyone, who have brain not only for dumb "readings", but for strategic thinking, can use this info.

Once more for Martin. You asked "what if I am demon". I answering again: if you are demon, then it's "balls of steel" strat, and you deserved to win for this high-risk. Because lyncing you is strategicaly bad idea for town. Remember instant mafia? This is the same thing.

BB, going to sleep. Remember this post. Also read my lw after bonoboing me.