S-FM 314: St Mildred's Horror

[Auwt]

Right now I'm only believing DM, Martin and a bit Varcron.
Others are looking either a bit susp or af

[Varcron]

Right now I'm only believing DM, Martin and a bit Varcron.
Others are looking either a bit susp or af

Holy shit someone believes me? Heresy

I don't know what to think of the DM Zedus interaction so far.

[Auwt]

Holy shit someone believes me? Heresy

I don't know what to think of the DM Zedus interaction so far.

It just feels like other players aren't really willing to give their reads/thought on others so it's hard to position them.

I'm gonna look each post MM has made and maybe something will show up?

Has anyone ever played with a scum MM just so I could check his usual scum pattern?

[MartinGG99]

It just feels like other players aren't really willing to give their reads/thought on others so it's hard to position them.

I'm gonna look each post MM has made and maybe something will show up?

Has anyone ever played with a scum MM just so I could check his usual scum pattern?

Last scum game he played was Mallow's Anti-Vaxxing Crusade or whatever.

He effectively was a solo scum so if you're looking ways he may have spewed in the past then that isn't a good example.

Prior to that game though, I can't recall or am aware of a game when he was scum.

Here's the link if you think it somehow may still be worthwhile: https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...axxing-Crusade

[Zedus]

Holy shit someone believes me? Heresy

I don't know what to think of the DM Zedus interaction so far.

Think that DM is overconfident and his "read" on me is total bullshit. And you will not make a mistake.

[MartinGG99]

oh wait I was reading the wrong page lol, been too busy to realize I read this stuff before

[Zedus]

FrostByte is 2nd scum here. No way he can say 2 mutually exclusive things in 2 days.

[Auwt]

FrostByte is 2nd scum here. No way he can say 2 mutually exclusive things in 2 days.

He firstly asked wether skipping is good or not.
Then he answered himself.
I don't see mutually exclusive relation between those two facts.

[Dark Magician]

FrostByte is 2nd scum here. No way he can say 2 mutually exclusive things in 2 days.

Then why did you take so long to vote them?

[FrostByte]

Town can't check or kill. The only thing town can do to win is reason out who scum is and lynch. I hadn't thought it through very deeply, so I asked what others thought of it.

Either you still don't understand how the game works despite it being literally eli5 for you multiple times, or you're actively working against town.

Pick one.

[Frinckles]

-vote unvote

who next

[Oberon]

Just to let y'all know, I'll be gone for about 3 hours so if you hammer before, I won't be able to reveal the flip

[Auwt]

No-voters, please take a clear stance, thanks.

[Frinckles]

No why?

No-voters, please take a clear stance, thanks.

whats the point of taking a clear stance with one scum alive? you that worried about fencesitting and VCA?

at this point I really don't care who we lynch even if its myself because I have no idea what this game has turned into

[FrostByte]

at this point I really don't care who we lynch even if its myself because I have no idea what this game has turned into

Same.

We should lynch today but I haven't decided who to vote yet.

[MartinGG99]

at this point I really don't care who we lynch even if its myself because I have no idea what this game has turned into

Its the Zedus talk show tbh

he's famous now

[Zedus]

Its the Zedus talk show tbh

he's famous now

No. It's your shit readings show.

One person turned 180 degree from "skip d1 is logicaly right" to "skip d1 = scum".
2 persons (Mike and Frinckles) both says that MM is clearly town by their "reads" and votes Gyrlander one by one.

One of this 3 is scum. It's easy.

Or, maybe (very low chance) scum is one of you, Auwt or DM, with high-risk 200 IQ strategy. Then town is lost already, like in instant mafia.

[MartinGG99]

One of this 3 is scum. It's easy..

Hey Zedus lets say hypothetically I'm the demon

what do you think about that?

[Gyrlander]

No. It's your shit readings show.

One person turned 180 degree from "skip d1 is logicaly right" to "skip d1 = scum".
2 persons (Mike and Frinckles) both says that MM is clearly town by their "reads" and votes Gyrlander one by one.

One of this 3 is scum. It's easy.

Or, maybe (very low chance) scum is one of you, Auwt or DM, with high-risk 200 IQ strategy. Then town is lost already, like in instant mafia.

I'm happy to see I'm confirmed town in your eyes.

[Auwt]

whats the point of taking a clear stance with one scum alive? you that worried about fencesitting and VCA?

at this point I really don't care who we lynch even if its myself because I have no idea what this game has turned into

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz then

[Frinckles]

Fuck multiquotes on phone

[Gyrlander]

Fuck multiquotes on phone

If I see my No why? quote one more I'm committing seppuku.

[Gyrlander]

Considering I also wanted to skip and I am Town you can't just lynch Zedus because "he voted to skip". Plus, I remember he did explain a bit. His basic reasoning was something along the lines of "we'll probably lynch a monk today so let's skip instead".

[FrostByte]

"we'll probably lynch a monk today so let's skip instead".

Yep, but he's not weighing how lynch vs no lunch affects the balance of probability later in the game and he's refusing to address it again. His explanation was inadequate.

[Zedus]

Considering I also wanted to skip and I am Town you can't just lynch Zedus because "he voted to skip". Plus, I remember he did explain a bit. His basic reasoning was something along the lines of "we'll probably lynch a monk today so let's skip instead".

Now the thing changed. There is 3 ppl: Auwt, DM, Martin. I will call them towncore. Noone will lynch them, they have huge weight of being town, because they lynched demon. So the only way demon can win is if one of them is exorcist. If so, demon will kill him this night or next night, and after that he can easy blackmail and manipulate one of two alive towncores to win. This is his only winning strategy for demon.

Another winning strategy for demon works only if Auwt, DM or Martin is demon, sacrificed his ally MM to get town credit and lead the town to hell. Then this strategy already succesful. Low chance that demons realy used that, but if so, they deserved their win. I will cal this "balls of still" strat.

As for town, their optimal strategy is just lynch everyone, but not towncore, and hope that there is no exorcists in towncore. It's easy, for real. But if demons used "balls of steel" strat, they won. Town have no way to get info. Exorcist provides no info. Even if demon is Auwt/DM/Martin and someone will start suspect one of them, he can always play like he is blackmailed. Noone will see the difference. That's the thing you often call WIFOM.

If demons not used "balls of still" and exorcist is not Auwt/DM/Martin, town already won. Demon can do everything he wants, he have no chance to win.

If one of Auwt/DM/Martin is exorcist, demon will get chance to win, killing him. No reason to blackmail someone, he NEEDS to remove one of 3 towncores, else they will just lynch others one by one and win.Every blackmailing act = one more lynch and -1 place for demon to survive. So demon WILL check them one by one, there is NO another way to win for him. If he blackmailed someone n1, he just made one more step to lose. Blackmailing will help only if one of towncore is exorcist and demon kills him.

Thats the complete explaination of possible strats in this game for both sides. This setup cannot be mechanicaly solved, like anti-vaxxers one. There is a lot of "IF" in it. But I noticed every possible "IF". And everyone, who have brain not only for dumb "readings", but for strategic thinking, can use this info.

Once more for Martin. You asked "what if I am demon". I answering again: if you are demon, then it's "balls of steel" strat, and you deserved to win for this high-risk. Because lyncing you is strategicaly bad idea for town. Remember instant mafia? This is the same thing.

BB, going to sleep. Remember this post. Also read my lw after bonoboing me.

[Dark Magician]

Considering I also wanted to skip and I am Town you can't just lynch Zedus because "he voted to skip". Plus, I remember he did explain a bit. His basic reasoning was something along the lines of "we'll probably lynch a monk today so let's skip instead".

I’m not voting him because he didn’t vote MM or that he voted Skip.
I’m voting him based on what he has done Post wise so far and his interactions with MM are gawd awfully and most likely W/W.

[Frinckles]

what monk would like to kindly leave the game here? frostbyte and myself are cool with dipping

[FrostByte]

The best possible thing we could wait for would be blackmail claims tomorrow but lynching will give us info from the flip and help narrow the search for scum. Lynching seems like the play.

I'm not entirely convinced that Zedouche is scum though.

I'm waiting for more general input. And some very specific input.

[Frinckles]

i would lynch the first person to soft blackmailed lul

[FrostByte]

i would lynch the first person to soft blackmailed lul

People could potentially hard claim tomorrow if they were blackmailed today

[Zedus]

Noone blackmailed today.
Demon checked one of our 3 semi-confirmed townies this night. He will check another one tonight. And another one next night. His only chance to win is if one of that 3 is exorcist, so demon can kill him and win 1v2 with blackmail.

But soon he will get that all 3 of them are monks, so he lost.

Use my info and my lw. Going to sleep soon.

P.S. You suck with your "reading" as always.

[Auwt]

Noone blackmailed today.

I know you already explained it a bit at some point but could you tell me how can you know?
Why would scum not use their ability huh?

[FrostByte]

I know you already explained it a bit at some point but could you tell me how can you know?
Why would scum not use their ability huh?

He doesn't. It's a guess. Either is entirely possible.

[Zedus]

I know you already explained it a bit at some point but could you tell me how can you know?
Why would scum not use their ability huh?

Because optimal strat is using another ability.

[Zedus]

I know you already explained it a bit at some point but could you tell me how can you know?
Why would scum not use their ability huh?

If I get it rigth, they can blackmail OR check exorcist. Not AND. So they will check, because it's optimal strategy.
If one of 3 semi-confirmed townies (you, Martin, DM) is exorcist, demon will have chance here to win. If noone of you, demon lost.
Well, still low chance that one of you is demon, lynched his ally. High-risk-high-reward strat can work sometimes (like in instant mafia).

[FrostByte]

If I get it rigth, they can blackmail OR check exorcist. Not AND. So they will check, because it's optimal strategy.
If one of 3 semi-confirmed townies (you, Martin, DM) is exorcist, demon will have chance here to win. If noone of you, demon lost.
Well, still low chance that one of you is demon, lynched his ally. High-risk-high-reward strat can work sometimes (like in instant mafia).

Assuming they used what you consider an optimal strategy?

Total guesswork.

Why would you spend the whole game bitching about how everyone else is so stupid and then assume they'd use an optimal strategy?

That logic doesn't track.

[Zedus]

Assuming they used what you consider an optimal strategy?

Not "I consider". It's optimal, and I explained why.

Total guesswork.

Total mechanics. Guesswork is that shit which DM doing.

Why would you spend the whole game bitching about how everyone else is so stupid

Not everyone else. Only the members of "reading" cult and the ones stacked in the only meta.

and then assume they'd use an optimal strategy?

Because it's optimal. Blackmailing now gives nothing for demon. His only chance is kill one of 3 voters on MM to remove one semi-confirmed townie from the pool. Other ways just will not work.

That logic doesn't track.

It's your personal problem. Or, more likely, you are scum and you already checked one of Martin/DM/Auwt.

[FrostByte]

Noone blackmailed today.
Demon checked one of our 3 semi-confirmed townies this night. He will check another one tonight. And another one next night. His only chance to win is if one of that 3 is exorcist, so demon can kill him and win 1v2 with blackmail.

But soon he will get that all 3 of them are monks, so he lost.

Use my info and my lw. Going to sleep soon.

P.S. You suck with your "reading" as always.

You still haven't done an adequate job explaining why you still prefer skip yesterday

[Zedus]

You still haven't done an adequate job explaining why you still prefer skip yesterday

Lie. I explained a lot.

[FrostByte]

Lie. I explained a lot.

You explained inadequately.

[Zedus]

You explained inadequately.

I explained perfectly. The problem is on your side. Or, more likely, you just scum, trying to add more bullshit into topic.

[Gyrlander]

Noone blackmailed today.
Demon checked one of our 3 semi-confirmed townies this night. He will check another one tonight. And another one next night. His only chance to win is if one of that 3 is exorcist, so demon can kill him and win 1v2 with blackmail.

But soon he will get that all 3 of them are monks, so he lost.

Use my info and my lw. Going to sleep soon.

P.S. You suck with your "reading" as always.

Excuse me but why do you guess that they are not Exorcist?

[Zedus]

Excuse me but why do you guess that they are not Exorcist?

Demon cannot win 1 v 3, but he will win 1 v 3.
If one of 3 our "towncore" is exorcist, demon must just kill him and blackmail one of two alive "towncores" to win.

[Zedus]

FrostByte first. Frinckles second. Varcron last. Best order to lynch.

[FrostByte]

FrostByte first. Frinckles second. Varcron last. Best order to lynch.

How did you reach this conclusion?

[Zedus]

How did you reach this conclusion?

Already explained.

[Zedus]

Bonobos will lynch me as always, but doesn't matter. We have numbers.

[FrostByte]

Unless you're too arrogant to change your mind given proper evidence

[Zedus]

P.S. Omfg, sometimes I write "still", not "steel". Idk how does it in english, but in russian it sounds similar, sorry.
Balls of steel I mean, surely.

Well, now offline, bb.

[FrostByte]

P.S. Omfg, sometimes I write "still", not "steel". Idk how does it in english, but in russian it sounds similar, sorry.
Balls of steel I mean, surely.

Well, now offline, bb.

They sound very similar. Some English dialects pronounce them exactly the same.