Ok so far since I revealed we have implicit citizen claims from Auwt and bakemir, and explicit power role claims from myself and Grak. We’ve previously had soft citizen claims from Drizzt and Martin, and a soft role power claim from Dallarian.
We’ll see how things shake out after those last three players return to the thread and lay their cards on the table, but at the moment it looks like there is exactly one scum in me/Grak/Dall and one in Auwt/Martin/Drizzt/bakemir.
I’ll wait until everyone has had a chance to claim and confirm this is where we stand before I start world building too much, but yeah.
Lets do some process of elimination then.
Ash/Auwt, lol dont you dare, I do not have to explain it to you, we are not BOTH scum sided.
Ash/Martin, could be a thing, but no as yet counter the Martin's citizen claim. Not much probable
Ash/Drizzt, you have several concerns about him, I dont see you siding with him.
Ash/bakermir, same thing than Ash/Martin
I do not exclude a possible Ash/Dallarian team. (idk why you said exactly one scum between you two)
Grak/Auwt, I can ensure we are either both town, or 1 scum and 1 townie. This is a fact right here.
Grak/Martin They are both looking for each other, I dont buy it.
Grak/Drizzt could be a thing, I need to wait a bit more to see this.
Grak/bakermir now this is interesting, are they trying to both cover themselves? I dont think so bakermir was really pushing Grakylan to get his investigative clue this is also an either 2 townies team or a 1 scum and 1 town team.
The most probable between those would be Grak/Drizzt or a way less possible Grak/bakermir, idk what to think of it.
Dallarian/Auwt, I have most of my concerns and worries on him right now. And Dallarian recent post on me are showing him trying to stay out of my read/post because I am apparently to persuasive sometime.
Dallarian/Martin, could be a thing, but Citizen claim from Martin make it harder to believe they both scum sided.
Dallarian/Drizzt, not much interaction between them through D1, null read on D2, might be a thing
Dallarian/bakermir, same thing that with Martin.
On this list I would say Dallarian/Drizzt look the most probable.
I know in all this analysis I put bakermir and Martin both in very safe spot, but they are the only one that are currently claiming Citizen, leaving them mostly on a safe spot.
This is how I currently see your
I would add that any scum team that does not include Grak makes the green check real so we can rule out some worlds like Dallarian/bakemir on that basis.
Well unless bakemir is exactly Godfather I guess.
There’s a secondary question: if things shake out with this expected 3/4 split, do we lynch in the civilians or in the power roles?
We still have 34 hours.
I see Dallarian is taking his time.
Lynching Citizens wont solve anything, unless more than 3 people claim it, we should really focus on power roles, that's why I was willing to ear more from every power role.
I do not believe that hiding your role and clue for now will make you look that much as a townie.
Same goes for Dallarian, and the others.
I wont be voting Martin, bakermir this day.
I'm waiting for a potential 3rd Citizen claim to close the Citizen list.
Oh yea there is a chance it could be TWO in there with one town power hiding in citizens.
I won't reveal further into this but this is the only reason why I am not voting Grakylan up yet. This doesn't mean he is clean.
I will be honest.
I will most likely end up voting Dallarian or one of the citizen claims as the things stand. My gut tells me to look at elsewhere but the only logical course for us today to lynch someone with least input, be it they are TPR or citizen. I think we can afford that.
Yeah but remember that you put 4 persons on the Citizen side.
But only 3 are currently Citizen. So basicaly one of bakermir/Martin/me/Drizzt is power.
With that in mind the first list should be Ash/Grakylan/Dallarian/X
With X being the power role classified in the Citizen group.
So its truly possible and by the way IS THE CASE that between Ash/Grakylan/Dallarian/X, there are 2 SCUMS
So power role are now in big trouble.
I believe this post is really helping a lot...
Yeah of course, if we get 4 PR claims we will have 3 clear citizens. Conversely if we have only 2 we will have me and Grak clear and bakemir confirmed green checked.
For this reason I assume the scum will split one in each group. Otherwise we’ve almost won the game already. Three lynches in a group of four people to catch two is amazing for us. I don’t think they’ll let us have it.
I don't think it is smart we discuss further into peoples roles until we hear from Dallarian and Drizzt.
This is also why I don't know which one would be better to lynch today. Citizen or TPR.
What if Drizzt claims TPR and not citizen? Helltanis claimed citizen earlier.
What if Dallarian says he is citizen today?
Then which one of us is the real TPR? Auwt/Bakermir/Martin
Your second group is bakermir/Martin/Auwt/Drizzt.
Those are either Citizen or unknown
Your first group is Ash/Grakylan/Dallarian
Those are claimed power.
We have to find out who ISNT citizen on the second group, because there are only 3 of them alive right now (Since Zedus died, only 3 possible citizen remains)
With this, you can assume that the first group (composed of the power role) would be Ash/Grakylan/Dallarian/ X
This X would be the one that ISNT citizen in the second group.
When we will have a strong Citizen base with no counter claim, then we shall focus on the ones claiming power role,
Namely Ash/Grakylan/Dallarian/X
So all we have to do is wait for Drizzt to post his position between CITIZEN or POWER ROLE. And then we could walk forward to focus on the primary list.
By the way, does anyone know what timezone @Drizzt is from?
First of all I am very happy that Grakylan started seriously playing. I also expected Helltanis to be replaced. I am happy he have tried FM.
I find it difficult to follow the game. Pure reading takes me too much time and FM turned out to be more involving than I expected. It takes me a few hours to just read posts made over night. I feel overwhelmed by content. Yes, it took me too long to write this post. You can add it to my being suspicious list.
Most of are my thoughts after D1. I haven't thought over the current situation yet, but I am aware I am being Mafia read by majority.
I don't see connection between Auwt and Grakylan. Auwt's claims influenced majority of players, including both of us. There were some fair points pointed at them, but I do not have a newer thought about the situation.
It's my first FM ever as well and I simply have no idea who could be Mafia right now. Your analysis process is different and more powerful than mine. I fall behind with game analysis. Now we have more content from Grakylan so I have what to work with. Also I believe in current situation I can find bakermir townie regardless if Grakylan is Mafia or Town. I try to judge people for their actions.
Auwt isn't oracle. You neither. Assuming his all D1 Citizen claims are true is risky. However now some of them are confirmed. If Mafia assumed it being correct estimate of situation, perhaps Mafia could be people who are easily influenced and going a lot with flow.
I'd say Renegade was more likely to get killed, because of his more "closed" gameplay (unlikely to be healed) and being town read by majority of the people.
About your theory I wouldn't say Auwt is hiding under the radar. Also comparing post count is dumb. Auwt created more content than Helltanis did and activity isn't aligment indicative. For me Auwt's lower post count is positive thing.
This is going pretty far and you have probably convinced me you're not in team with Auwt. I withdraw from Martin/Auwt Mafia team idea. Suggesting to lynch Auwt first puts you in a bad light, though. Mafia!Martin would for sure used his skill to defend himself after Auwt's mislynch and as long as he convinces one Townie not to vote him, he would be safe. If (I am unsure if you claimed that, please point it out to me) Grakylan is more scummier than Auwt, what should we do with him after Auwt mislynch? I can believe you would be building a strong cause against him on D3.
Already asked by Ash, I need to search for answer.
Why would Mafia limit themselfs to guilty voters who have actually helped them, and not consider you? If I was Mafia you would be pretty high on my "to kill" list.
I explained the reason why I voted Auwt. First thing you have done was to join vote train on Auwt, then you read earlier conversation, said sorry and switched to a longer train. I see here significant behaviour difference. Vote on Auwt wasn't what people found scummy, but following trains. Martin made pretty accurate observation about the whole situation during End of Day 1.
He appears and convinced me to be pure town. I deny town tunneling him.
My vote was directed to Auwt and stayed until his answer. I expected him to arrive soon and I wasn't wrong. In terms of different sleep patterns a few hours isn't that long. Also explained by Martin.
I am overwhelmed with content. I woke up 3 hours ago (update, 6 hours) and only thing I do is reading what happened at night.
Power of having a mentor.
Also good moment to thank to Gyrlander. Thanks @Gyrlander .
We can assume bakermir is not GF.
@Grakalyn Yes, I was avoiding a few smaller questions D1. I didn't feel need to be over defensive and answer every single post. Is there something you woud like to ask me?
Except for my role.
Is there anything unclear about my attitude to Zedus? I believe I have explained my thoughts about that pretty well.
I believe it all began here:
#154 As –Mafia- player I am confident with player roles like Bodyguard, Doctor and Citizen. I believe I can help town with discussion. I related this to FM. I believed I can contribute into the game. It turned out to be harder than I expected.
Then bakermir said this that post and some others were indicative for my power claim:
As I explained in #490:
The question was a part of my building case against Zedus. As you could see, I focused on him a lot during D1.
I have no idea why I am Power role read. Could you point out more at me, please? There was no reason to fight with such claim, I would be happy to die at night as meatshield for our Power Roles.
My role is Citizen and I have received no night feedback.
I hope you can put more light on your claim. I am curious what else suggested I am Power Role. Also I am sorry Auwt for disappointing you.
Dallarian, citizen or power role? Easy question, of course if you are Citi you need to claim your role and Im sorry for that.
So a truth is between Auwt/bakermir/Martin/Dallarian we have at least 1 scum, probably not another one.
Unless bakermir want to fall back from his Citizen placement, It's now the time to position yourself bakermir.
Also still waiting for Drizzt.
Due to some personal reasons I am unable to participate any more in this game. I know it is not fair toward most of you, for you have put a lot of effort to read me and interact with me.
I believe someone will replace me soon.
I found the game pretty interesting, but also more time consuming and engaging than I expected. There are other reasons as well. It was a pleasure I could play with people on similar level to mine but some of you are standing out high above me in deduction and analysis.
Thanks @bakermir for coming to the game. I hope you are having fun. You make some really good job.
Thanks awesome Deathworlds-senpai for support (My Great Higher Entity!) and teaching how to play as aggressive Town. He is a great mentor! Spent a lot of time to explaim me FM and meta behaviour in his free time. That was great help.
Also thanks to Maylante SuperJack for organizing this all and his patience toward my poking him all the time. But all in all I haven't broken rule 11.
I am sorry for disappointing Auwt, he probably hoped for a nice game with me. But you are doing well, good luck. I am unlikely to join other FM games, so I am sorry for disappointing @secondpassing as well.
I will see some of you in -Mafia-. Bye.
They are arrows in the quiver. They must be spent if we are to win this.
@Dallarian has been replaced by @deathworlds
I stand by Dallarian's citizen claim
-vote MartinGG99
This slot is most likely to be scum from my pov. I'll be back with more content on them but I just got off my graveyard shift, I haven't slept in like 18 hours and my brain feels like a soft tomato.
Okay so Martin/Auwt/DW/Drizzt + potentially bakermir (must confirm)
In any case, someone already lied right there.
So we might have 1 or more scum between them.
3 Citizens, and 4 claiming it + potentialy bakermir.
If bakermir confirm being a citizen, then the power roles namely Ash, Grakylan are safe to be town.
Waiting for bakermir for now.
Your predecessor looked very Citizen like with their actions and speechs.
That may also be why Helltanis got bored, happens.
But the truth is, we shall wait a bit to eliminate as much possible scum as we can.
With that in mind, either Martin or DW are lying for me right now.