S-FM 288: La Cosa Nostra

[Stealthbomber16]

Alright so lets do some graphing.

Spoiler : scenario running quote :

We have 4 possible TPRs. 3 of which are claimed. Our players tonight are
Huey The Long as Sgt. Hing
Unknown1234 as Detective Rob Debree
Magoroth as Dr. Cantway
Marshmallow Marshall as somebody i dunno

and blinkskater is our Matthew Shepard

so lets look through this

If we start at Huey being town and move forward, here are the conclusions we come to.
1. Unknown is possibly mafia.
2. There is a possible framer.
Seems simple enough, right?
If unknown is mafia, that means his claim about Magoroth is bullshit, and he just baited a tpr claim out of the blue. I feel that may be unlikely, but you never know, lets run all the scenarios.
1. Magoroth is confirmed by unknown. This forms a core where both players are the same alignment. They don't necessarily have to be town, but they can't be a town+scum pairing.
2. Unknown, fueled by the reaffirming he had in scum chat over the night where they likely discussed this, baited out a likely TPR in order to confirm himself.
3. Magoroth bullshitted a claim after unknown called him out because the framer play backfired since unknown is a tpr.*
*Which brings us to 3A and 3B
3A. Magoroth is lone SK and got caught in an unlikely series of events. This happens in the mod all the time but I don't know how likely it would be here? This enables blink to still be an actress.
3B. Magoroth is mafia and his flip would confirm a framer.
And of course, Marshall is left as an unclaimed TPR, likely a doctor or a vig.

If we start at the fact that unknown is town and move forward, here are our new conclusions.
1. Huey is either sheriff or mafia. Consider the likelyhood that huey would open the day with a false TPR claim. This is a meta discussion and I have not enough meta info to make this call.
2. Mag either healed or killed blink last night.
3A. Marshall counterclaiming doctor would almost certainly reveal magoroth as a scum.
3B. Marshall counterclaims the last tpr slot as a vig, making it a 50/50. In this scenario, we should lynch a 3rd party and allow marshall to attempt to confirm himself by shooting magoroth.
However I don't see a world where mafia leaves that death note. I think that would be the NK. If naz comes back and says that is the mafia death note, then IMO magoroth is 100% mafia confirmed.

If we start at the fact that magoroth is town and move forward, here are our new conclusions.
1. Unknown is 100% town because he confirmed magoroth visited blink.
2. Both SK and Mafia attacked blink. Depending on naz's question we can also deduce what faction submitted that death note (if that matters at all)
3. Either huey or MM are lying.*
*Which brings us to either
3A. Huey is a ballsy ass scum who thinks he can mislynch someone and get away with it claiming "Framer framer framer"**
3B. MM is scum. This is more likely IMO.
**Which brings us to either
3AA. Blink is actress and huey attempted to falsely confirm him as a real citizen. This results in an undocumented NK, meaning either MM is doctor or mafia hit the SK.
3AB. Blink is a random innocent citizen who got attacked twice.

If we start at the fact that MM is town and move forward, there are two scenarios IMO.
1. MM is doc
2. MM is vig
and the unlikely 3. MM is an investigative. This can be lumped into one category.
I don't think we'd have duplicate TPRs because 3 investigatives would be wack.
1 and 2 are simple- Huey and Unknown are functionally confirmed, blink is confirmed citizen, we have a confirmed framer, and the lynch comes between MM and magoroth. Starting here- this implicates magoroth as the confirmed panicky scum who hardclaimed a role to finish a story. If MM claims vig, we let him shoot magoroth to confirm himself.
3 is where things get fucked because here are the conclusions we come to
1. Huey or Unknown are scum- depending on which TPR MM claims.
2. Magoroth is confirmed town and blink was killed twice. We can deduce what faction submitted that death note from this scenario.
3. We are getting nothing done today

I think this just about covers every possible thing. I wrote everything out as I went and only edited things as other info came up.
In my mind, I think the scenario where MM is doc is most likely, and I'd like to wait for his claim to make a bird vote. After typing this out, magoroth is probably scum.

Essentially, we are waiting for
1. MM to claim a role
2. naz to respond to my death note question (it's actually quite important here as it will help us determine which scum we know killed blinkskater.

TL;DR IMO most likely case is magoroth is scum- but i am waiting for host and for our missing variable before i act on it

[Stealthbomber16]

i surely hope that is not the SK kill list because if it is im about to dip boys

[Stealthbomber16]

also major respect to huey if he turns out to be scum

[Huey The Long]

also major respect to huey if he turns out to be scum

Fuck i wish i was scum and made this play i could get that sweet SB16 respect point. But nah im just some geezer called carmelo who has a funky hat and a little notepad who tries to find bad dudes.

[Ganelon]

actually if Im town its physically impossible for blink to NOT have been attacked twice

[DS.]

actually if Im town its physically impossible for blink to NOT have been attacked twice

Could blink have been attacked three times?

[Unknown1234]

Could blink have been attacked three times?

Vigilante cannot attack night one, so no there couldn't have been a third attack.

[DS.]

Vigilante cannot attack night one, so no there couldn't have been a third attack.

Wasn't certain if that was confirmed or not

[Unknown1234]

Wasn't certain if that was confirmed or not

It was discussed in the setup page before the game started. Don't know when it was added

[Ganelon]

just that it's technically possible he attacked himself.
now, I don't know how likely that is.

[Unknown1234]

Aren't Godfathers and Serial Killers immune in this setup? If anything that would cause more confusion because we wouldnt know if the shot actually went off or if they did hit an immune role.

[Ganelon]

Aren't Godfathers and Serial Killers immune in this setup? If anything that would cause more confusion because we wouldnt know if the shot actually went off or if they did hit an immune role.

they are IIRC
so if I'm scum, its possible my team (that could mean me if I'm SK) hit the immune. or the other team hit the immune - which would mean the SK/GF possibly know each other's identity.

that's not the case, however. blinkskater really did get attacked twice

[Ganelon]

nah I was asking you bout me but I can't type bc it's 6am and I should be sleeping

[Ganelon]

that's fair.
I actually don't know either.

[Light_Yagami]

Im Gonna Go Play Some Overwatch They Have A Spooktacular Going On..

[DS.]

tell me why i just got back from the laundromat and the background wallpaper on my computer is different.... i left my computer on and open, could my cat have done this by jumping on the keyboard or do i have a ghost or something

[Unknown1234]

tell me why i just got back from the laundromat and the background wallpaper on my computer is different.... i left my computer on and open, could my cat have done this by jumping on the keyboard or do i have a ghost or something

Has it ever swapped without you doing it before? lol that's weird.

[DS.]

Has it ever swapped without you doing it before? lol that's weird.

never and ive never seen this pic before lmao

[Unknown1234]

never and ive never seen this pic before lmao

What'd you do to piss the ghost off then?

[Ganelon]

lmao

[Unknown1234]

Hard to believe that only 4 people have voted so far..

[Ganelon]

yeah pretty much

[DS.]

yeah pretty much

Again with the pretty much lol

He either is, or he is lucky af.

[DS.]

Honestly though MM was far and away the scummiest of all of the current claimed PR's so my money is on him just being scum here.

[Ganelon]

sorry, I sometimes say "pretty much" when I mean "almost certainly".
yes, he either got extremely lucky or hes town.

[Unknown1234]

Assuming 3/4 of us are town and there aren't any afk TPR claims waiting to be spoken, that leaves us with 3 evils and 4 citizens inside of:

DS.
Frinckles
Clank
Efekannn02
Light_Yagami
rumox
Stealthbomber16

[Ganelon]

I think it’s Frinckles tbh



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[Ganelon]

Thinking back, blink did say we should lynch him. He didn’t really bother explaining why but I think that play would’ve been pro town if we had actually lynched him.

We wouldn’t have to deal with this mess.


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[Unknown1234]

If we focus on putting one of the four of us and attempt to pair them with people from the other group based on last vote (whether the vote is realistic or not will be determined after)

Magoroth Likes: rumox
He is okay with: Clank/DS/Efekannn02
He does not like: Stealth/Frinckles/Yagami

Huey likes: Stealth
He is okay with: Efekannn02/rumox/DS
He does not like: Frinckles/Clank/Yagami

MM likes: Yagami
He is okay with: Frinckles/rumox/DS/Clank
He does not like: Stealth/Efekannn02

Going to go more into pairings and see if there are any that make a lot of sense. Just posting this now to see what end of day views were.

[Unknown1234]

If we focus on putting one of the four of us and attempt to pair them with people from the other group based on last vote (whether the vote is realistic or not will be determined after)

Magoroth Likes: rumox
He is okay with: Clank/DS/Efekannn02
He does not like: Stealth/Frinckles/Yagami

Huey likes: Stealth
He is okay with: Efekannn02/rumox/DS
He does not like: Frinckles/Clank/Yagami

MM likes: Yagami
He is okay with: Frinckles/rumox/DS/Clank
He does not like: Stealth/Efekannn02

Going to go more into pairings and see if there are any that make a lot of sense. Just posting this now to see what end of day views were.

Things to note at first glance that stand out from day 1:

Magoroth putting rumox in his town group, pretty sure this was to avoid his lynch and instead get me/Frinckles lynched. Magoroth with Frinckles is unlikely, rumox is possible

MM with his push against lynching Efekannn02 at the start due to policy lynch. While this looks bad, the push on Efekannn02 wasn't encouraged/pursued much throughout the day.

Huey did not like Clank and Yagami due to their comments towards wanting to skip the day. I believe more was added on Clank suggesting that the loud players were more likely to be scum.

MM did not like Stealth but because he was concerned about me and Stealth town-reading each other. Hard to gauge this reaction because his concern with Stealth was minor compared to mine. Could be attempting to look like he scum reads Stealth while not actually pushing for his lynch.

[Efekannn02]

If we focus on putting one of the four of us and attempt to pair them with people from the other group based on last vote (whether the vote is realistic or not will be determined after)

Magoroth Likes: rumox
He is okay with: Clank/DS/Efekannn02
He does not like: Stealth/Frinckles/Yagami

Huey likes: Stealth
He is okay with: Efekannn02/rumox/DS
He does not like: Frinckles/Clank/Yagami

MM likes: Yagami
He is okay with: Frinckles/rumox/DS/Clank
He does not like: Stealth/Efekannn02

Going to go more into pairings and see if there are any that make a lot of sense. Just posting this now to see what end of day views were.

HOW DARE HE NOT LIKE ME I WILL DESTROY HIM!

[Unknown1234]

The problem is there are people like Clank who never even placed a vote on anyone, and had few amounts of posts on top of that.

[Unknown1234]

DS., how do you think Magoroth benefits from killing blinkskater if he's mafia/sk? Mafia might be a bit more explainable if his teammates were under fire, but as a Serial Killer it doesn't seem like something worth considering.

[DS.]

DS., how do you think Magoroth benefits from killing blinkskater if he's mafia/sk? Mafia might be a bit more explainable if his teammates were under fire, but as a Serial Killer it doesn't seem like something worth considering.

I dont a scum Magoroth honestly thinks hes being tracked at all (I didnt personally think he was scummy yesterday at least) and so killing Blinkskater probably throws shade on Frinckles the most. I am interested to see Frinckles step away from the Blink situation and actually try to solve the game, but my thought yesterday was that Frinckles v Blink was TvT anyway so yes this would make Frinckles look bad. It also would make the people who voted Blink at EOD yesterday look bad also I think

[Unknown1234]

I dont a scum Magoroth honestly thinks hes being tracked at all (I didnt personally think he was scummy yesterday at least) and so killing Blinkskater probably throws shade on Frinckles the most. I am interested to see Frinckles step away from the Blink situation and actually try to solve the game, but my thought yesterday was that Frinckles v Blink was TvT anyway so yes this would make Frinckles look bad. It also would make the people who voted Blink at EOD yesterday look bad also I think

Is there any way to check what the final vote standings were towards the end of the day? Normally I'd assume that if they were scum they'd switch their votes last minute to save a teammate, but that ended up being Mesk so it's not as relevant.

[DS.]

Is there any way to check what the final vote standings were towards the end of the day? Normally I'd assume that if they were scum they'd switch their votes last minute to save a teammate, but that ended up being Mesk so it's not as relevant.

Idk. Personally the vote counter thing wasn't even working for me at EOD but I'm not sure if that was a mobile issue or not

[Unknown1234]

Idk. Personally the vote counter thing wasn't even working for me at EOD but I'm not sure if that was a mobile issue or not

It was definitely crashing for me at EOD too, so I wasn't able to view the votes until the day was over.

[DS.]

I don't think*


not sure if we can edit posts here or not but not gonna push my luck until I know

[Unknown1234]

I don't think*


not sure if we can edit posts here or not but not gonna push my luck until I know

Don't edit posts, yeah. You won't get in trouble if you do it once, usually people end up doing it for grammar purposes and then get warned not to.

[Unknown1234]

Who suggested it was a good idea to let Vigi shoot if there was a claim? I may have to go back and find it

[Unknown1234]

Oh it was Stealthbomber16 in his large wall post about potential scenarios.

It's a really scummy plan considering that if MM actually is vigi all it would do is have him shoot Magoroth and either kill a doctor (if it's Huey) or hit a night immune and then a back and forth argument about who is lying. If MM isn't vigi it's applied the same way.

[Stealthbomber16]

Oh it was Stealthbomber16 in his large wall post about potential scenarios.

It's a really scummy plan considering that if MM actually is vigi all it would do is have him shoot Magoroth and either kill a doctor (if it's Huey) or hit a night immune and then a back and forth argument about who is lying. If MM isn't vigi it's applied the same way.

Oh yeah fuck death descriptions right those aren’t a thing

I’m a dumbass carry on

It’s not me + mm that’s the wrong tree

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Oh yeah fuck death descriptions right those aren’t a thing

I’m a dumbass carry on

It’s not me + mm that’s the wrong tree

LOL THE TITLE CONGRATS STEALTH

And yep... it's weird to suggest that I could be scum with Stealth. I still don't really think he's town, btw.

[Huey The Long]

LOL THE TITLE CONGRATS STEALTH

And yep... it's weird to suggest that I could be scum with Stealth. I still don't really think he's town, btw.

I have stealth really in my town rn but thats more cause i havent looked at him much. I think he has said some pretty towny stuff but i have this thing at the back of my head telling me he is the SK.

[Unknown1234]

Going to sleep now. Hopefully the people who didn't show up turn up tomorrow.

[rumox]

The only problem with this is if MM is scum you just told him exactly what to claim to avoid being lynched. I think it's going to come down to 100% reactions on the situation, when MM shows up.

When I was thinking this over earlier I thought this exact thing. Actually speaking aloud the variables in regards to the claim to come from MM would help scum. I'm reading DS post about this as a possible Mafia coaching his team mate.

actually if Im town its physically impossible for blink to NOT have been attacked twice

If. I don't like this choice of word. I get why you would use it but I feel like if you are town should be speaking from (as blink would say) a pure stand point. I am town.

[DS.]

When I was thinking this over earlier I thought this exact thing. Actually speaking aloud the variables in regards to the claim to come from MM would help scum. I'm reading DS post about this as a possible Mafia coaching his team mate.
If. I don't like this choice of word. I get why you would use it but I feel like if you are town should be speaking from (as blink would say) a pure stand point. I am town.

Why would I coach publicly when I could just coach in scum chat?

[rumox]

It's 24 hr days right? I don't like how quite this day has been... we should probably sort out who we are lynching.

[DS.]

It's 24 hr days right? I don't like how quite this day has been... we should probably sort out who we are lynching.

48 hour days.

[rumox]

Why would I coach publicly when I could just coach in scum chat?

I highly doubt Mafia would have anticipated such a situation as we have right now, at best they had a loose idea on what they will claim in regards to being red checked or tracked. But 3 people claiming TPR in such a fashion? No way they would have prepped for that. Tbh that seems too naive of a question to be honest. I can easily see Mafia trying to day coach a team mate for this situation.

48 hour days.

Ah awesome. Well I will be able to catch you guys at another peak hour for you guys then before end of day 2.