Quote Originally Posted by thedougler View Post
That is a fallacy Mesk. The odds of flipping heads don't increase above 50% on your next flip just because you have flipped tails 1000 times in a row. The odds of you being the only inno person don't magically change because the gods of chance know that's what happened last time. But I'm sure you know this...

Now imagine MattZed has a d10 to determine the setup.

Green-d10-dice.png

Each side of that d10 represents one of ten scenarios. In scenarios 1-8 someone that is not you is inno and you are a conspirator. In scenario 9, you are innocent and everyone else is a conspirator. In scenario 10 everyone is inno. Upon seeing that you are inno, as you claim to be, you can deduce that he either rolled a 9 or a 10. The odds of the dice landing on either of those is equal.

Sure the odds of there being a conspiracy appear greater for an outside observer, but the scenario in which any one of us is inno by ourselves is just as likely as the scenario in which we are all inno. That's why someone said earlier that voting based on the probabilities is dumb. I'm going to look for psychological clues that someone here is lying. That's already a strike against you Mesk because IDK whether or not your statement was meant to lull me into a false complacency.
........ i understood nothing that you said. all i know is, im innocent. you people really don't do a good job of convincing at all lol. if your an inno you should take innocent claims seriously. this was what was lacking last game and why i was able to determine i was the only innocent. no one even remotely acted like it was possible for another innocent.

idgaf about odds but if you wanna discuss them then what are the odds that mattzed is a mean mean person towards and made it twice Mesk Vs. Everyone else.